The GBPUSD pair is a little curious from a pure USD perspective, Net GBP longs are being liquidated but not as quickly as they are in EURUSD. Its likely that some of those GBP longs are crossed against short EUR positions?
GVI Forex john 12:31:04 GMT - 05/18/2014
Its curious to me that the net short JPY positions are still heavily short (long USDJPY). Over time relative stability in the exchange rate should see positions erode Markets still appear to be betting heavily on JPY weakness. The vulnerable side of the market is the USDJPY longs, but I don't know what the catalyst for a sell-off might be. Of course you never know! THis is one case where the spot vs. the 20-day trigger apeas noy to be working?
GVI Forex john 12:10:36 GMT - 05/18/2014
JP- yes, for better or worse, the global economy appears to be moving into a new phase. This "recovery" is taking a lot longer than initially thought thanks to the "help" of the political class. Traders should be starting to adjust their strategies for this new phase. Any ideas?
Mtl JP 00:27:28 GMT - 05/18/2014
john 22:34 to try to keep things simple : players are shifting allocations around as they argue about rising price-inflation and increasingly crappy economic growth prospects combination... u ll want to note they are dumping stocks, bidding bonds and also dumping euro.
Bottom line:
players are stirring
GVI Forex john 22:34:36 GMT - 05/17/2014
Mixed picture in the S&P. Note in the blue chart that the market has been short the e-mini for several weeks. Spot S&P has crossed through (below) the 20-day average. This chart suggests that in the short-term world that this market is NOT especially vulnerable to a major break. This is in my very humble opinion. Equities could be different than forex because it is traded in a longer-term time time horizon. Any other views?
GVI Forex john 21:35:15 GMT - 05/17/2014
If you look at the blue chart for the 10-yr Note, you will see that it highlights net positions. The large swings in net shorts shows how traders have been fighting the downward slide in rates. That slide has been running contrary to conventional wisdom that has been that rates should have been RISING as the Fed has been tapering its Asset Purchase Program.
GVI Forex john 21:25:02 GMT - 05/17/2014
fwiw the 20-day average of the 10-yr is now 2.64% and it closed Friday at about 2.52%.
GVI Forex john 21:16:29 GMT - 05/17/2014
One key focus recently has been on the performance of the 10-yr Note where yields have been falling to new lows. Surprisingly, although, futures have been short, they still are net short (betting on higher interest rates), but net shorts have been significantly reduced. I guess each has his/her own point of pain. If the market is positioned wrong, then the risk on rates remains to the downside. Note on the charts that the right hand scale is inverted because bond markets trade in terms of prices (not yields). In bonds, yields fall as prices rise and vice-versa.
Mtl JP 21:09:17 GMT - 05/17/2014
GVI Forex john 17:18 / as u probably know all too well ( and a lot of gv players) being short the euro has been THE pain trade of the ytd. So it remains to be seen IF this euro bear positioning is going to suffer similar fate OR if its the real train to Short Town
GVI Forex john 17:18:54 GMT - 05/17/2014
The Draghi too strong EUR forex comments came mid-way in the weekly COT snapshot period, so we cannot identify precisely what happened immediately thereafter. But in any case, if you look closely and the red and green bars you can see traders had flipped from net long to net short the EURUSD by last Tuesday's close.
I have found that spot vs, the 20-day average is a good predictor of major swings in net positions. Below the 20day moving average (1.3815), the SHORT side is the strong side of the market. Second blue chart below highlights NET Positions.
Livingston nh 16:03:44 GMT - 05/17/2014
EUR/USD
1. A declining MACD from mid March hi to recent pre-ECB hi - a double top??
2. LT support 144 EMA has to be watched for a close below
3. 21 dma and 55, 89 ema are rolling over - previously only the 21 turned down w/ LT avgs steady or rising
4. 21 dma has not crossed below any of LT avgs yet so this drop could be insignificant and just modest discounting of the June ECB
GVI Forex11:40:17 GMT - 05/17/2014
Speculators turn bullish on US dollar; longs highest since March 11-CFTC (RTRS)
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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