User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?
FOREX Forum

Forex Forum     ← Back to Forums


Sort Order: Latest Post on Top - Latest Post Last            Post Reply

Mtl JP  15:10:44 GMT - 05/18/2014  
damn ... here goes another trade opportinity down the toilet:

Switzerland votes against world's highest minimum wage


GVI Forex john   12:48:15 GMT - 05/18/2014  
The GBPUSD pair is a little curious from a pure USD perspective, Net GBP longs are being liquidated but not as quickly as they are in EURUSD. Its likely that some of those GBP longs are crossed against short EUR positions?












GVI Forex john   12:31:04 GMT - 05/18/2014  
Its curious to me that the net short JPY positions are still heavily short (long USDJPY). Over time relative stability in the exchange rate should see positions erode Markets still appear to be betting heavily on JPY weakness. The vulnerable side of the market is the USDJPY longs, but I don't know what the catalyst for a sell-off might be. Of course you never know! THis is one case where the spot vs. the 20-day trigger apeas noy to be working?











GVI Forex john   12:10:36 GMT - 05/18/2014  
JP- yes, for better or worse, the global economy appears to be moving into a new phase. This "recovery" is taking a lot longer than initially thought thanks to the "help" of the political class. Traders should be starting to adjust their strategies for this new phase. Any ideas?


Mtl JP  00:27:28 GMT - 05/18/2014  
john 22:34 to try to keep things simple : players are shifting allocations around as they argue about rising price-inflation and increasingly crappy economic growth prospects combination... u ll want to note they are dumping stocks, bidding bonds and also dumping euro.

Bottom line:
players are stirring


GVI Forex john   22:34:36 GMT - 05/17/2014  
Mixed picture in the S&P. Note in the blue chart that the market has been short the e-mini for several weeks. Spot S&P has crossed through (below) the 20-day average. This chart suggests that in the short-term world that this market is NOT especially vulnerable to a major break. This is in my very humble opinion. Equities could be different than forex because it is traded in a longer-term time time horizon. Any other views?










GVI Forex john   21:35:15 GMT - 05/17/2014  
If you look at the blue chart for the 10-yr Note, you will see that it highlights net positions. The large swings in net shorts shows how traders have been fighting the downward slide in rates. That slide has been running contrary to conventional wisdom that has been that rates should have been RISING as the Fed has been tapering its Asset Purchase Program.


GVI Forex john   21:25:02 GMT - 05/17/2014  
fwiw the 20-day average of the 10-yr is now 2.64% and it closed Friday at about 2.52%.


GVI Forex john   21:16:29 GMT - 05/17/2014  
One key focus recently has been on the performance of the 10-yr Note where yields have been falling to new lows. Surprisingly, although, futures have been short, they still are net short (betting on higher interest rates), but net shorts have been significantly reduced. I guess each has his/her own point of pain. If the market is positioned wrong, then the risk on rates remains to the downside. Note on the charts that the right hand scale is inverted because bond markets trade in terms of prices (not yields). In bonds, yields fall as prices rise and vice-versa.










Mtl JP  21:09:17 GMT - 05/17/2014  
GVI Forex john 17:18 / as u probably know all too well ( and a lot of gv players) being short the euro has been THE pain trade of the ytd. So it remains to be seen IF this euro bear positioning is going to suffer similar fate OR if its the real train to Short Town


GVI Forex john   17:18:54 GMT - 05/17/2014  
The Draghi too strong EUR forex comments came mid-way in the weekly COT snapshot period, so we cannot identify precisely what happened immediately thereafter. But in any case, if you look closely and the red and green bars you can see traders had flipped from net long to net short the EURUSD by last Tuesday's close.

I have found that spot vs, the 20-day average is a good predictor of major swings in net positions. Below the 20day moving average (1.3815), the SHORT side is the strong side of the market. Second blue chart below highlights NET Positions.














Livingston nh  16:03:44 GMT - 05/17/2014  
 
EUR/USD
1. A declining MACD from mid March hi to recent pre-ECB hi - a double top??
2. LT support 144 EMA has to be watched for a close below
3. 21 dma and 55, 89 ema are rolling over - previously only the 21 turned down w/ LT avgs steady or rising
4. 21 dma has not crossed below any of LT avgs yet so this drop could be insignificant and just modest discounting of the June ECB


GVI Forex 11:40:17 GMT - 05/17/2014  
Speculators turn bullish on US dollar; longs highest since March 11-CFTC (RTRS)


nw kw  22:04:38 GMT - 05/16/2014  
how to trade in new week

http://www.testosteronepit.com/awesomest-ride-through-sf/



nw kw  21:27:04 GMT - 05/16/2014  
Itís worth noting that commercial tradersí 30 FFR long positions are near an all-time high. Therefore, up side could be limited.

For now, the Fed Funds Rate confirms what we foresaw already last week: Higher prices.

https://ispyetf.com/view_article.php?slug=Fed_Fund_Rate_Suggests_S%26P_500_Rally&ID=448



dc CB  20:07:16 GMT - 05/16/2014  
COT

30Y Bond



GVI Forex john   19:43:42 GMT - 05/16/2014  

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP















Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube




pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex