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Mtl JP  15:10:44 GMT - 05/18/2014  
damn ... here goes another trade opportinity down the toilet:

Switzerland votes against world's highest minimum wage

GVI Forex john   12:48:15 GMT - 05/18/2014  
The GBPUSD pair is a little curious from a pure USD perspective, Net GBP longs are being liquidated but not as quickly as they are in EURUSD. Its likely that some of those GBP longs are crossed against short EUR positions?

GVI Forex john   12:31:04 GMT - 05/18/2014  
Its curious to me that the net short JPY positions are still heavily short (long USDJPY). Over time relative stability in the exchange rate should see positions erode Markets still appear to be betting heavily on JPY weakness. The vulnerable side of the market is the USDJPY longs, but I don't know what the catalyst for a sell-off might be. Of course you never know! THis is one case where the spot vs. the 20-day trigger apeas noy to be working?

GVI Forex john   12:10:36 GMT - 05/18/2014  
JP- yes, for better or worse, the global economy appears to be moving into a new phase. This "recovery" is taking a lot longer than initially thought thanks to the "help" of the political class. Traders should be starting to adjust their strategies for this new phase. Any ideas?

Mtl JP  00:27:28 GMT - 05/18/2014  
john 22:34 to try to keep things simple : players are shifting allocations around as they argue about rising price-inflation and increasingly crappy economic growth prospects combination... u ll want to note they are dumping stocks, bidding bonds and also dumping euro.

Bottom line:
players are stirring

GVI Forex john   22:34:36 GMT - 05/17/2014  
Mixed picture in the S&P. Note in the blue chart that the market has been short the e-mini for several weeks. Spot S&P has crossed through (below) the 20-day average. This chart suggests that in the short-term world that this market is NOT especially vulnerable to a major break. This is in my very humble opinion. Equities could be different than forex because it is traded in a longer-term time time horizon. Any other views?

GVI Forex john   21:35:15 GMT - 05/17/2014  
If you look at the blue chart for the 10-yr Note, you will see that it highlights net positions. The large swings in net shorts shows how traders have been fighting the downward slide in rates. That slide has been running contrary to conventional wisdom that has been that rates should have been RISING as the Fed has been tapering its Asset Purchase Program.

GVI Forex john   21:25:02 GMT - 05/17/2014  
fwiw the 20-day average of the 10-yr is now 2.64% and it closed Friday at about 2.52%.

GVI Forex john   21:16:29 GMT - 05/17/2014  
One key focus recently has been on the performance of the 10-yr Note where yields have been falling to new lows. Surprisingly, although, futures have been short, they still are net short (betting on higher interest rates), but net shorts have been significantly reduced. I guess each has his/her own point of pain. If the market is positioned wrong, then the risk on rates remains to the downside. Note on the charts that the right hand scale is inverted because bond markets trade in terms of prices (not yields). In bonds, yields fall as prices rise and vice-versa.

Mtl JP  21:09:17 GMT - 05/17/2014  
GVI Forex john 17:18 / as u probably know all too well ( and a lot of gv players) being short the euro has been THE pain trade of the ytd. So it remains to be seen IF this euro bear positioning is going to suffer similar fate OR if its the real train to Short Town

GVI Forex john   17:18:54 GMT - 05/17/2014  
The Draghi too strong EUR forex comments came mid-way in the weekly COT snapshot period, so we cannot identify precisely what happened immediately thereafter. But in any case, if you look closely and the red and green bars you can see traders had flipped from net long to net short the EURUSD by last Tuesday's close.

I have found that spot vs, the 20-day average is a good predictor of major swings in net positions. Below the 20day moving average (1.3815), the SHORT side is the strong side of the market. Second blue chart below highlights NET Positions.

Livingston nh  16:03:44 GMT - 05/17/2014  
1. A declining MACD from mid March hi to recent pre-ECB hi - a double top??
2. LT support 144 EMA has to be watched for a close below
3. 21 dma and 55, 89 ema are rolling over - previously only the 21 turned down w/ LT avgs steady or rising
4. 21 dma has not crossed below any of LT avgs yet so this drop could be insignificant and just modest discounting of the June ECB

GVI Forex 11:40:17 GMT - 05/17/2014  
Speculators turn bullish on US dollar; longs highest since March 11-CFTC (RTRS)

nw kw  22:04:38 GMT - 05/16/2014  
how to trade in new week

nw kw  21:27:04 GMT - 05/16/2014  
Itís worth noting that commercial tradersí 30 FFR long positions are near an all-time high. Therefore, up side could be limited.

For now, the Fed Funds Rate confirms what we foresaw already last week: Higher prices.

dc CB  20:07:16 GMT - 05/16/2014  

30Y Bond

GVI Forex john   19:43:42 GMT - 05/16/2014  

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