Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 09:49 GMT 05/21/2014 - My Profile
- EURUSD traded 1.3700 for 7th say in a row. remains below 1.3735 but trapped within 1.3647-1.3735. YUpsiude capped unless 1.3735 is tajen out (includes 100 dayt mva).
- GBPUSD again outperforming, Paused below 1.6933 = 76.4% of 1.6996-1.6729
USDJPY below its 200 day mva (), in what remains a reluctant dip. Major support is at 100.73 = Feb 4 low. This a level the bulls will want to defend. if firmly broken, market goes for 100.
Cambridge Joe 08:01:12 GMT - 05/21/2014
CB 21:42 GMT 05/20/2014
CB thanks. Duly noted, etched on my memory !
Sydney ACC 23:39:46 GMT - 05/20/2014
No. If, however, the underlying strategy is correct the dips are likely to continue to be bought.
While India's reserve are precariously low, do they have the cash to finance additional purchases plus the infrastructure to store it.
Mtl JP 22:07:01 GMT - 05/20/2014
ya ACC, piece is a few days old already and so far whatever tension Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph imagins has not manifestly translated in price-action.
Do you see a profitable trade opp from that piece ?
dc CB 21:42:19 GMT - 05/20/2014
Tues evening is the API report..never enter before the report. 4:30 PM NY time
Wed is the EIA report at 10:30AM. It usually more of less follows the API in that if there is a Draw there will be a Draw...if a Build, etc.
The API Draw was large...not a time to be shorting.
Sydney ACC 21:30:10 GMT - 05/20/2014
Have you seen this:
Ambrose Evans Pritchard
China steps up speed of oil stockpiling as tensions mount in Asia
If it doesn't work.... re-tune, re-examine.... try to understand why.
Mtl JP 20:48:04 GMT - 05/20/2014
Paris ib 19:38 - I hope I read that you are excited about that and that you are making scads of posi-profits off riding on the backs of the collusionist c-bankers
Cambridge Joe 19:59:57 GMT - 05/20/2014
Oil stumbling approx just after the top of the hour.
Paris ib 19:40:20 GMT - 05/20/2014
The way Central Banks are 'talking' these days is very peculiar. I continue to wonder what is behind all these mutterings.
Paris ib 19:38:30 GMT - 05/20/2014
It might be some latent concern about the USD. Talking hiking rates in an attempt to boost the buck. The collusion between Central Bankers in this regard is unbelievable. Draghi talking the Euro down by hinting at all sorts of easing possibilities and the FED moving into hawkish 'talk'.
Livingston nh 18:42:22 GMT - 05/20/2014
It may be that Dudley is reaching the end of his Fed career - he may stick around until the Taper process ends // he may feel it's time to pursue "other interests" so he may move away from the party line
The dovish Troika is over and new power centers in FOMC will rise - it has been a while
GVI Forex john 17:54:08 GMT - 05/20/2014
U.S. 10-yr drifting lower as stcks fall 2.509% -1bp
GVI Forex john 17:38:56 GMT - 05/20/2014
Comments from Fed Dove Dudley are being read as more hawkish from him than might have been expected. Like hawk, Plosser, Dudley has a positive view of the economic recovery. This has equity markets a little worried about an earlier than expected Fed policy tightening. equities are softer. The EURUSD has not moved much.
dc CB 17:34:37 GMT - 05/20/2014
Fed's Bill Dudley
DUDLEY: LONG-TERM RATES LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN HISTORIC NORM
dc CB 17:30:50 GMT - 05/20/2014
Paris ib 17:03:31 GMT - 05/20/2014
No panic in stocks so far. Give it time.
dc CB 16:49:42 GMT - 05/20/2014
for all the "Panic" in Stox. This puppy hasn't really reacted.
GVI Forex john 16:17:46 GMT - 05/20/2014
Hearing one guy on CNBC saying that 101.20 was the old break-out level in USDJPY. Frankly I can't find it. He also noted 101.20 is the 200-day average. We have it in the same neighborhood (101.26 basis Monday close). The 200-day average is not as important to forex markets as it is to stocks.
He also said if USDJPY breaks significantly lower, then stocks could head south as well. I have trouble with the reasons for the correlation only that it works.
In the olden days there used to be a Soybean to Silver correlation because the price boards on the wall had the two commodities next to each other. So people traded it only because it worked!
Cambridge Joe 14:47:19 GMT - 05/20/2014
'maybe for a couple of days. IMO. GL'
maybe (usdx selling) for a couple of days. IMO. GL
Sorry.... too much haste.
Cambridge Joe 14:38:31 GMT - 05/20/2014
Looks to me that usdx is toppish here,.... maybe for a couple of days. IMO. GL
GVI Forex john 14:20:17 GMT - 05/20/2014
10-yr 2.532% 0bp that is -1bp from earlier today. Falling equity prices driving yields lower (bond prices higher).
Paris ib 13:48:24 GMT - 05/20/2014
lol sja.... and you're doing a good job !
bali sja 12:47:01 GMT - 05/20/2014
i am the invisible hand holding euro :)
1.35 won't become resistance, buy with confidence
Expect ECB to pre-announce private sector asset purchases in June. Amount to about EUR 300 bln, programme could be expanded to govt bonds.
Expect rate cuts in June to combat EUR strength, additional liquidity.
GVI Forex john 10:52:30 GMT - 05/20/2014
As of this hour, the USDJPY to S&P correlation is working nicely. Think about it, when major central banks move reserves out of EUR and into JPY, this is bearish for U.S. stox. Figure that out!
Also worries about the European periphery have been mounting, This is causing an unwinding of the intra-Eurozone arbitrage where funds had been flowing from lower (low risk) yielding sovereign debt to the high yielders (high risk). I suspect the widening of yield spreads has been weighing on confidence in the EUR.
Today sees no major data from the U.S. So we are back watching stox and the EURJPY cross.
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