Those who watched my video outlook this morning (and those who didn't should have taken me up on my offer), note the magnetic pull of EURUSD 1.36 after failing to reach 1.3650.
But it is gold (+41 =+3.2%) where the action is.
If you are looking for a high quality, regulated spot gold broker offering tight spreads and good executions, send us an EMAIL
GVI Forex13:53:59 GMT - 06/19/2014
Definition of 'Permanent Open Market Operations - POMO'
When the Federal Reserve buys or sells securities outright in order to permanently add or drain the reserves available to the U.S. banking system. Such permanent open market operations are the opposite of temporary open market operations, which are used to add or drain reserves available to the banking system on a temporary basis, thereby influencing the federal funds rate. Permanent open market operations are just one of the tools used by the Federal Reserve to implement monetary policy.
(Investopedia)
dc CB 13:41:21 GMT - 06/19/2014
the main event today
POMO: Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:26:56 GMT - 06/19/2014
If you would like to see today's forex trading outlook video, send me an EMAIL
I highlight the importance of 1.36 and key trading levels.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:23:08 GMT - 06/19/2014
Philly Fed survey up next and a focus will be on prices paid after Yellen and friends ignored the recent blip up in CPI.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:39:45 GMT - 06/18/2014
EURUSD catching a bid out of EURGBP rising back to .80, GBPUSD lower after hitting a wall at 1.70
but FOMC roulette should keep it below 1.3586 unless market smells stops
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:39:29 GMT - 06/17/2014
One quick move on the CPI and then sideways. The sideways is what tests one nerves but life in a low vol market.
syd sf 11:20:22 GMT - 06/17/2014
all I see is - in and out I don't see real trend positions on the books here .. and that is probably a good thing given how defensive the market is.
the levels with the most pain attached seem to be pretty clear:
1.3500 eur 1.7050 gbp 100.75 $yen
then you have eurgbp 8000... above or below.
london red 10:28:19 GMT - 06/17/2014
not once has market been squeezed ahead of fomc, we could see 90/99/10 but not likely higher before settling aroun 13560-80 tomorrow evening pre fomc. any such stop run can take cable with it now that 16960 has been retaken and a move thru 170 would be possibly with a euro around 13600. however ahead of mpc minutes tomorrow 17040 should cap. not entirely sure as yet how to play minutes tomorrow morning. market is certainly looking for some dissent from one or two members and since carney blow off speech nobody from the mpc has come out to contradict, so the better option may be to fade strength on a break of 17040 tomorrow morning setting up for profit taking ahead of the fed. on release a hawkish mpc minutes will allow for a chse thru 17040 another trade to consider, but setting up long prior is risky given heightened expectations and thus risk of severe drop on disappointment.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:08:59 GMT - 06/17/2014
As posted last night on GVI Forex. High has been 1.3587
Tuesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:44 GMT 06/17/2014 - My Profile
Early break of 1.3580 has not gone far and suggests this level needs to become support for a greater retracement risk.
There was quiet demand all day and seems more like some book squaring (note EUR crosses) than anything else.
10 day = 1.3586, 20 day mva = 1.3608, suggests res 1.3586-08
Reply
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:09:42 GMT - 06/16/2014
Note, 200 hour mva capped the upside
Observations
london red 14:20 GMT 06/16/2014
Jay, often on a monday or tuesday people ask the same question. some retracement is called for at the start of the week, particularly with no real data until mid week. its v rare not to partly fill in prev wk range. so no harm done yet. 3569 first key level for me then the 200 hour, above there can stop run to fig/3610. downside in play while below 13670. erurgbp 8006 then possibly 8065 but 8035 could halt.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:01:48 GMT - 06/16/2014
It is like the market is looking ahead to the FOMC and will try to bide its time. With Iraq looming, it just doesn't feel like a time to make big bets unless you want to bet on the FOMC outcome.
HK RF@ 16:24:26 GMT - 06/16/2014
1.3590 vicinity may be the highest Euro will print today.
Just a strong Res. for the moment.
HK RF@ 16:13:36 GMT - 06/16/2014
Per my suggestion, wait to see the closing candle!
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:10:24 GMT - 06/16/2014
1.3575-80 so far holding.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:06:12 GMT - 06/16/2014
The ECB speak was not news but reaction to it is more important than the headlinee.
Key level is 1.3575-80 so still within a local range where 1.3550 (magnet level) sets the tone.
GVI Forex12:50:59 GMT - 06/16/2014
EURUSD appeared to pop up on this
6/16/2014 8:44:46 AM ] (EU) ECB to refrain from undertaking additional easing policies over the next several months; if the inflation outlook worsens, ECB could take action - financial press
**Note: Reports inline with comments following Draghi's press conference on Jun 5th after announcing a combination of measures to combat deflationary concerns
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:59:47 GMT - 06/16/2014
EURUSD buying seemed to come out of EURGBP but did not threaten 1,3550 or .8000
Mtl JP 11:44:38 GMT - 06/01/2014
Paris ib 19:35 .. What is the problem exactly that they need to talk all the time? Are they worried? Should we be? Or is manipulating financial markets part of their mandate now?
Notice the proliferation of bullish propaganda. Appearance of "stability" (a deception) is very important to the "communicator" gang. Notice the proliferation of ingenious / sophisticated essplenations and rationalizations of current economics ? Americans in particular like to think of themselves as optimists and prudent players are dismissed as nega-sayers. It is their Achillies heel. The opportunity is in the crushing of alleged nay-sayers because the reality of Bubbles doesn’t change.
So it is a matter of surviving the crushing and being positioned for the inevitable Bubble bursting.
Mtl JP 00:26:06 GMT - 06/01/2014
Livingston NH the mopes - as you call them - think that if the plebs somehow come to think / fear that they better spend their savings (thus stimulating the economy) before they buy next to nothing or actually nothing IF the "authorities" are driven into an actual monetary exchange - like in the 1958 27 december Rueff-Pinay plan of the so-called adoption of "nouveau franc" - that that fear will stimulate the economy as people basically rush to throw their money away at anything except holding on to it.
For possible historical lesson you ll want to note that the only deaths that occurred at that time were of some plebs committing suicides, but that there was no run on the royals in the palace. (i.e no major social revolution). In fact, the propaganda of the re-valuation of the franc claimed that it "démontrera de façon éclatante la justesse des décisions prises" (it brilliantly proved the genius of the plan).
A bit more recent example is Venezuela: car dealers actually stopped selling cars in exchange for money intake. And people were eagerly buying 10-yr old jillops - in a desperate effort NOT to hold "money" coz by end of day it would lose half of its purchasing power.
Livingston nh 18:08:50 GMT - 05/31/2014
John - the Japanese did this before so why did they think it would be different this time ?? Tax anything and you will inevitably have less of it // the low interest rates have deprived the economy of its major base of consumers - in a savings based economy citizens will reduce their marginal propensity to consume because their savings are not enhanced by an acceptable rate of return (hence more income is diverted to savings to make up the shortfall)
Before Ben was the Depression nightmare specialist he wanted to impose an inflation target on US monetary policy -- this goal has apparently been achieved and the consequences will be with us for years // if Draghi thinks a cut in interest rates from these low levels is going to be stimulative he should look at the Japanese "success" with low rates
True Believers in doctrine not at all concerned with real life consequences --- the Business Cycle will bite these Ivory Tower mopes and we will pay the price
GVI Forex john 16:10:14 GMT - 05/31/2014
NEW GVI chart shows the impact of the japanese sales tax hike. Note March (pre-increase pre-emptive buying) and April (post-hike). No telling for how long sales will remain depressed.
Mtl JP 12:03:43 GMT - 05/31/2014
in Japan (in other words numbnuts Abe) means to accelerate rising prices his citizens pay for the same thing today as compared to a year ago. Rising prices (or inflation) is NOT a reflection of rising and bubbling economy.
In it base form it is a theft perpetrated by "officials" with legalized power to print more of what they call "money". What that means is erosion of purchasing power of one's savings.
All one has to look at is your john 15:32 table and the yearly yield of 0.58% for a 10-year loan to the Japanese government.
So far the investing population is docile as it is getting its donkey reamed.
GVI Forex john 10:14:50 GMT - 05/31/2014
nh- BOJ has been trying to raise inflation for years. Turns out all they had to do was raise taxes. Yea that will work!
Japanese CPI. The impact of the Sales tax increase has been felt in these data. Its impact is estimated at 2.70%. So the BOJ still has work to do to hits its inflation target.
to dk 02:18:38 GMT - 05/31/2014
yy
Livingston nh 01:51:54 GMT - 05/31/2014
JP -
"Words, words, words!
I'm so sick of words
I get words all day through
First from him, now from you
Is that all you blighters can do"
Draghi is stuck because there is nothing he can do - if he wants higher inflation he needs to raise interest rates -- AND no self respecting CB could do that
Mtl JP 01:38:51 GMT - 05/31/2014
GVI Forex john 20:15 // easy solution: you could just consider words as action (i.e. adopt central bankers methods and principles) instead of passing judgement
GVI Forex john 20:15:16 GMT - 05/30/2014
All I can say is that the markets are almost always disappointed by events like this. It seems the policy-makers never do enough.
As for Draghi, I like him, but he is man of many words but little action.
Paris ib 20:08:09 GMT - 05/30/2014
They seem to be talking even more recently and it makes me uneasy. Don't they just get to set mobetary policy and then scoot. More and more they sound like liars and frauds. Or lost. Which is worse. This next ECB meeting is going to be a doozy. Market going into it all hyped and their entire objective is to keep the Euro from rallying. Which they call keeping imported inflAtion from falling too low.
GVI Forex john 19:49:30 GMT - 05/30/2014
They talk all the time because they are academics. They love to pontificate.
Paris ib 19:35:12 GMT - 05/30/2014
John it's weird isn't it? I had the thought myself. All these ECB types over here are starting to sound like used car salesmen. What is the problem exactly that they need to talk all the time? Are they worried? Should we be? Or is manipulating financial markets part of their mandate now?
GVI Forex john 19:10:24 GMT - 05/30/2014
Lots of Fedspeak today. I saw nothing of special note, but even the doves could get a job on CNBC touting stocks. Although they are not talking up interest rates yet, the all are bullish on the economy. It may be they feel that their "job" is to promote confidence?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:19:07 GMT - 05/30/2014
EUR weakness is in its crosses
bali sja 10:47:18 GMT - 05/30/2014
buy euro, at least temporary bottom has been made IMHO, time to go up
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:01:03 GMT - 05/30/2014
Month end flows likely to dominate
EURUSD trades 1.36 again so clearly sets the tone. Only above the 200 day mva (1.3645) would neutralize the bear bias.
Otherwise, market likely to bide its time until next week's key events.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:46:08 GMT - 05/29/2014
So here we are, one day to month end.
GBPUSD is holding just above 1.67 but unable to go far from it.
EURUSD is holding just above 1.36, with its upside capped around 1.3625. Range has been around 39 pips, pitiful by historic standards although the chop makes it feel like more.
US bond yields continue to fall. Either the bond market is telling us something about the state of the economy or it is just one mother of a short squeeze and a gift of a lifetime.
So let's look ahead to next week where how it ends will be most important as it will suggest whether we will have a chance at a summer trend, depending on how the EURUSD trades.
Right now we have a tug-of-war with commodity currencies and JPY moving towards the top of the fx food chain and EUR and GBP towards the lower end.
GVI Forex john 15:00:42 GMT - 05/29/2014
I posted one of our COT charts yesterday that showed as of Tuesday of last week traders were back shorting the 10-yr note for the umpteenth time this year. Short-covering again?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:48:15 GMT - 05/29/2014
Trading question is whether the fx market wakes up to falling US yields (although yields are lower elsewhere as well).
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:01:53 GMT - 05/29/2014
Market ignoring the lousy Q1 GDP revision, not a surprise but would have been nice to see a better pop to fade. As per the video, stay bearish as long as sub-200 day mva.
london red 12:49:07 GMT - 05/29/2014
eurgbp short at 50 will add 60-67 if seen. stop will be a little above there. looking for weekly/monthly close below 8167 fib. 20 day ma currently capping risk to 8191 fib if taken. will try again there if trade fails. target 8114 and lower.
tokyo ginko 12:32:42 GMT - 05/29/2014
add usdjpy long 101.55 !
london red 12:25:31 GMT - 05/29/2014
cable below 16688 opens up 16605 which should be as low as it goes before a minimum 100 point/multiday rally.
london red 12:09:12 GMT - 05/29/2014
JM, think we need to do 13570/40 cover into ecb meet. cant see below 13490 ahead of that meet. looking for eurgbp close below 8160 friday use any rally to sell 55-67.
NY JM 11:54:01 GMT - 05/29/2014
And if it comes in weaker than expected?
tokyo ginko 11:26:28 GMT - 05/29/2014
GDP will come better expected..USD will rally...and US stocks will be firm..
JP. To plagiarise a recent comment from a so called regulator
it just sounds like pure front running by the first class who pay more money to board the airplane first
In days of old these guys would have been prosecuted for churning and inside information and not playing in a level playing field
Just as Syd showed from his article and Jay has written about in Adapt or Die one has to be flexible and rather than fight the Algo one needs to align oneself with them as I have written and stated many times over many years both here and in magazines
Be aware of their weakness in being a market maker or so called liquidity provider
Mtl JP 01:41:58 GMT - 05/29/2014
AL does it not sound like superior savvy programming running on top of top physical hardware ?
so you are selling based on ECB? that's priced in already, buy rumour sell fact case
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:12:24 GMT - 05/28/2014
There seems to be an ongoing anti-USD trading bias here and I don't see why look to buy eurusd with the ECB meeting looming.
Looking at a weekly chart, if 1.3475 breaks then => 1.3407 (major trendline) => then 1.3295 => then 1.3105 => then 1.2754, at which point Zeus would appear with 1.2777
Just pointing out the risks.
kl shawn 16:57:00 GMT - 05/28/2014
wow, cheap euros, buy 1.3590, stop 100 pips below, adding if 1.3530-1.3550 seen, target open till xmas
jkt abel 16:53:46 GMT - 05/28/2014
no Jay, even more bullish now!! buy euro 1.35-1.36 is still my mantra, i like bali sja's idea of 1.35-1.40 summer range.
only under 1.3470 on weekly close then i am wrong
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:18:14 GMT - 05/28/2014
Maybe it is my imagination but this feels like a reluctant market today - maybe it is just my sixth sense speaking but there should be some trade calls
- if anyone is trading, give us a shout as we have finally has some decent moves. Still less than 50 pip range in EURUSD but over 100 in GBPUSD and more in GBPJPY.
EURUSD 1.36 sets its tone going forwards now...
Milan Louie 14:32:15 GMT - 05/28/2014
The invisible hand became the invisible man! haha!
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:30:49 GMT - 05/28/2014
abel, have you turned off your bull cap?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:30:03 GMT - 05/28/2014
That spike to 1.3628 turned out to be an early Xmas gift as 1.36 breaks. No news that I have seen and 1.36 now sets the tone.
Buyers beware as long as sub-200 day mva trades.
jkt abel 13:27:34 GMT - 05/28/2014
Jay, bali sja is defending it.
He will make sure it close above 1.36 later :)
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:52:22 GMT - 05/28/2014
Someone is still defending 1.3600 so it seems.
GVI Forex john 11:50:43 GMT - 05/28/2014
JM- Good point re buyers. Look at the first column of our EUR Heat Map below. Its all red which means that spot EURUSD is beneath every key moving average (5-200). That means if you are trading from the long side, you are swimming UPSTREAM against the current. Scalping with a close stop can work in this environment, but this is not a "buy and hold" market when the trend is so strong.
Thoughts? Other ideas?
EUR Moving averages for Wednesday. Basis Tuesday session...
GVI Forex john 11:39:40 GMT - 05/28/2014
No idea if its true, but I keep hearing that someone is protecting 1.3600. (option??). Note Jay cites technical levels around 1.3550-60 as key. I try to deal with what we can reasonably get. My focus is on the psychological 1.3600 line today.
As for the holiday tomorrow, this holiday is less important than it once was. Almost all the major Continental markets will be open.
NY JM 11:35:57 GMT - 05/28/2014
Most trade calls this week have been on the EURUSD buy side. May I ask why? We must be looking at different charts.
21 pip range so far today - 1.3616-37 - too tight to last for long but hems in both sides until broken'
Holiday tomorrow, end of month argue for a thin end to the week and I am saying this on a Wednesday.
it would be nice to see another short squeeze but that would be a hope trade more than one based on the current risk on downside.
No change to the current risk
if 1.3600-12 is firmly broken => risk to 1.3559-62 => if broken then 1.3475-00. Only 1.3838-42+ would slow this risk.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:21:29 GMT - 05/28/2014
sf please email me
syd sf 02:09:45 GMT - 05/28/2014
Fx Trading has changed alot - and now it comes down to several factors.
* each trading session has been looked at - and bots configured to trade according to time vs session
* correlation trading dominates so that no market is on its own - and more times than not FX just provides backdrop liquidity and not direction
* sticking your neck out and taking extra risk or using more leverage just is not rewarded due to what you mentioned - paint drying / time management.
* not only that but the technology operates more efficiently as each month goes by.
So you can adapt and make a living - or try to over leverage and wipe out your account a few times and quit.
To give you an idea on how my style has developed - I have short term trading bots / correlation bots / longer term bots and commodity market bots .. some have trailing s/l some have fixed s/l each optimized for the market they deal .. so they give as little away as is possible.
As you can see it is no secret because the market goes into the same or similar patterns each day .. and like most I disable my bots over news ... anyway study / learn / optimize and find a method that will move beyond the rest of 2014.
best of luck.
Livingston nh 01:15:56 GMT - 05/28/2014
Last week EUR broke and remained below the long term support daily 144 ema - today the 21 dma (1.3751) crossed the 55 ema (1.3753) this has happened three times since last summer but the 21 dma moved back above quickly - the 21 has not crossed below the 89 ema (1.3736) during this period // Both the 21 dma and 55 ema could cross below the 89 ema this week -- resistance levels are moving lower in tandem so it may be harder to move higher
Chicago AGA 00:56:17 GMT - 05/28/2014
These periods of little movement and watching paint dry can really wear on your nerves.
It would be nice to get a flush out but.....
bali sja 23:19:26 GMT - 05/27/2014
sja is the invisible hand holding euro ;) ascension day means euro will ascend high as well
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:34:03 GMT - 05/27/2014
It is Ascension Day on Thursday and most European countries are closed. This means long weekends for many and along with a Friday month end it will be a thin end to the week.
Factor this into your trading as market will likely be defensive the next few days while hopefully turning offensive next week.
Right now it is the invisible hand vs. the world in the EURUSD.
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 19:27:09 GMT - 05/27/2014
yep…invisible hand stopped my trade right after I moved stop..
so not too bad….size important…
Mtl JP 18:40:24 GMT - 05/27/2014
it is a nuts day when it is exciting to see a 15 pip move
like that one downward in usdyen for ex, lol
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:32:33 GMT - 05/27/2014
Looks like the invisible hand showed up around 1.3613, perhaps to defend 1.36
Maybe dip in US bond yields limiting dollar upside? Good alert by John on this
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 18:27:19 GMT - 05/27/2014
re trade: 3638 short partial closed 3618..remainder now stop placed at 3630
current 3624..
one pip at a time...
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 17:17:38 GMT - 05/27/2014
thank you Jay..watching weekly. daily, 4 hr..the trend is down now…so going with the trend..
and I see sub 3600..and 3526 possible..
which is 144 from mid 1 hr tunnel..
gl gt
GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:04:30 GMT - 05/27/2014
Sanibel, nice trading again. Seems more trying to counterpunch the trend than go with it.
Interesting to see GBP underperformed and gold got slammed while equities remain in happy land.
It will be hard for EURUSD to close the week above 1.3650, question is whether it closes below 1.36.
Agree of disagree?
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 15:23:50 GMT - 05/27/2014
3638 short took partial of 3618..
stop BE still
Dillon AL 14:55:33 GMT - 05/27/2014
JP suggest you search the GVI archives ----> for some of my comments going back over a year about tgts on UsdJpy but they are all long term out 2 years
GVI Forex john 14:52:31 GMT - 05/27/2014
If equities continue higher USDJPY will continue to advance. Problem is S&P has already moved. I don't like jumping in late in a move OR fighting momentum.
Mtl JP 14:43:35 GMT - 05/27/2014
john 14:39 so what do we buy / sell
short dlryen ?
Dillon AL 14:42:24 GMT - 05/27/2014
Dillon AL 21:35 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath): Reply
There is a small possibility of 2135ish being the S&P500 tgt
from which a re-test of prior all time high at 1580 would then be expected. Time frame this year followed by 2+ year pullback
GVI Forex john 14:39:01 GMT - 05/27/2014
fwiw S&P made an all-time intra-day record high a short-time ago. 1910+
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 14:37:21 GMT - 05/27/2014
3638 short stop to BE
current 3622..
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:29:38 GMT - 05/27/2014
Watch for Draghi headlines at any time
GVI Forex john 13:03:30 GMT - 05/27/2014
When markets move for "non-economic" reasons. I'm sure this was not even considered in Washington. This bunch has a very slow learning curve.
Gemma Godfrey @GCGodfrey 2h
Strong €, Drunk on Vodka. Draghi estimates $200bn of capital has flooded into Europe from Russia this yr
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 12:59:09 GMT - 05/27/2014
:) point taken, jp
Mtl JP 12:55:22 GMT - 05/27/2014
righteous morally right or justifiable (merriam-webster)
-
z' nuffin morally right or justifiable about money
money is a whore business
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 12:20:40 GMT - 05/27/2014
3638 short with 3650 stop seems righteous..
entered…
Mtl JP 12:14:38 GMT - 05/27/2014
john 11:51 - so.... are we buying or selling the eurdlr pup this am ?
-
note : 10 and 20dma (or 9 and 21) still signal a sell, as do two other traditional tech studies
GVI Forex john 11:51:50 GMT - 05/27/2014
EURUSD 200 day rising 1.3642
20-day is 1.3758
GVI Forex john 11:40:25 GMT - 05/27/2014
Tweet
Gemma Godfrey @GCGodfrey 2h
Strong €, Drunk on Vodka. Draghi estimates $200bn of capital has flooded into Europe from Russia this yr
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:37:33 GMT - 05/27/2014
5/27/2014 7:33:41 AM
(DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Would be dangerous to think we are out of the woods
- Europe must not hide behind monetary policy
- Rejects claim that euro is too strong.
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:35:53 GMT - 05/27/2014
EURUSD would need to break 1.3668 (intra-day high) for more stops. Otherwise, it consolidates with a reversion to mean being the 200 day mva (1.3642) and tone set by 1.3650 as long as it says within 1.36-1.37.
Suggest reading my article, Don't leave Yourself at the Mercy of the Forex Market as it is a must read for this type of week.
Mtl JP 10:34:46 GMT - 05/27/2014
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:57 / IF your Spanish is rusty , suggest using Chrome's Translate on Jürgen Stark's El execonomista jefe del BCE carga contra Draghi: "Está fuera de control" piece in libremercado
-
The juicy positions from Jurgen:
"...Draghi, "han perdido por completo toda capacidad de control y perspectiva sobre la situación económica" and "...todo el sistema es "pura ficción".
nw kw 09:59:23 GMT - 05/27/2014
USD Durable Goods Orders (APR)
Medium
-0.7% 2.5%
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:57:04 GMT - 05/27/2014
This sums up a holding pattern week awaiting key events next week.
The early part of this week will see European markets digest the results of the EU parliamentary elections. The results are not expected to substantially alter expectations that the ECB will loosen monetary policy at its June meeting. Moreover, there is little in the euro area calendar today or indeed the rest of the week that is likely to impact on such expectations. Instead, markets will be looking to preliminary May inflation readings next week, ahead of the ECB policy meeting.
From Lloyds a Bank Daily Economic Outlook
dc CB 03:08:31 GMT - 05/27/2014
food for the Zeuster's call
as we get near the Summer for all...Europe and USA, the tendancy has been to Unwind...AKA...Take dem profits and hit the beach, the yacht on the Med ...what ever.
Monday's Tradibng Outlook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:25 GMT 05/26/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD: Current risks
if 1.3656 breaks => then 1.3688 (1 & 4 hour res) at risk (using 1.3734-1.3614, 1.3660 = 38.2%, 1.3674 = 50%, 1.3688 = 61.8%)
if 1.3614 breaks, then risk to 1.3600 (rumored bids) => 1.3559-62 (next target)
We wil find out how much of the recent fall had to do with ECB and how much to do with EZ elections although the latter was never seen as a game changer risk. Market has not had a real correction since it started to fall, much depends on whether stops are resting above the market.
Reply
Mtl JP 13:50:45 GMT - 05/26/2014
WTI or Brent ?
Cambridge Joe 13:40:19 GMT - 05/26/2014
Anyone see Oil as HOD in place ?
nw kw 12:10:05 GMT - 05/26/2014
aud a rain down trade poss aud/eur/china rain /gold stuck in the mud
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:08:10 GMT - 05/26/2014
Reposting my weekend video update.
1.3650 is most important for me although Friday's high was 1.3656. Range sill small (33 pips) but feels like more (life in a low volatility market). 1.3650 caps upside today unless market sniffs out more stops?
if anyone is still trading, the high just now was 1.3642 vs. 1.3643 38.2% level posted earlier. Last 1.3630.
This is a great thread and can be setup for any currency.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:04:33 GMT - 05/23/2014
EURUSD avg daily range for 5 and 30 days is 58 pips and that is skewed up by the occasional news driven day. There have been more than enough sub-50 pip range days than any of us like. it used to be a daily range was 100 pips and shows how volatility has shrunk.
Even today, d the excitement of the 100 day mva breaking and a new low, the range has been just 38 pips.
Maybe this reflects a market noi longer USD centric and cross currency flows limiting spot ranges as market gets pulled in both directions.
By the way 38.2% of 1.3688-1.3615 is 1.3643. Not a forecast.
GVI Forex john 11:48:39 GMT - 05/23/2014
fwiw- Although CPI data today are key for Canada, they are not likely to have any immediate impact on policy. U.S. New Homes sales are a second-tier piece of data, so I do not see much additional market impact from news today.
Otherwise, the German IFO Survey earlier fell short of expectations and can only reinforce expectations for ECB ease in two weeks time. The EURUSD already reacted negatively to the news. Ironically, the DAX has rallied on the IFO data on hopes for an ECB easing. One key focus is the 1.3638 200-day average.
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 11:47:25 GMT - 05/23/2014
gm.
closed my short from 3681 too early..could have placed a very close stop and let it play out…but was vigilance weary.
a regret, however, with not much sting..considering market risks..
gl gt..sidelined and heading offshore Gulf of Mexico..
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:38:51 GMT - 05/23/2014
it is Friday, US and UK are closed Monday, many are already gone so expect a thin market with many heading for the exits early.
Close will be important today vs. the 100 day mva at 1.3638 but bearish tilt as long as 1.3650+ doesn't trade.
EU elections over the weekend might grab some headlines. Interesting that Ukraine vote has gotten practically no attention.
London Chris 10:59:54 GMT - 05/23/2014
I don't see it so good luck. Trend is your friend.
jkt abel 10:44:43 GMT - 05/23/2014
1st buy euro now 1.3620, buy more if 1.3570-1.3580 seen, stop for today below 1.3545, target open
bali sja 10:14:49 GMT - 05/23/2014
London Chris, nothing to be given up. On contrary very happy to see reloading zone. Only out if below 1.3420. Game on!
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:13:27 GMT - 05/23/2014
Red tks.
I was just saying I am surprised that there have not been more short EUR calls as we have some momentum.
Also, net USDJPY has been slowly creeping up, consistent with what I have been saying about 102 being at risk.
GVI Forex john 10:04:44 GMT - 05/23/2014
Note our NEW EUR Moving average Heat Map
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
GVI Forex john 08:10 GMT 05/23/2014
EURUSD column is all RED except for 200-day average which is 1.3638, so if we close below there it will turn red also.
Bottom line EURUSD buyers are fighting a strong current. This is not to say you can't be a buyer, but when you trade or set your stops, you should be taking account of which way the water is now flowing.
london red 09:50:42 GMT - 05/23/2014
13570-13490 for me is the low end of current range.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:31:17 GMT - 05/23/2014
We finally got a trend going but have not seen many bearish trade calls on the board.
I hope this new thread is helping as it has helped me already.
London Chris 09:05:38 GMT - 05/23/2014
Bali have you given up the fight?
Your 1.35-1.36 accumulation zone is coming sooner than you expected. IMO
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 02:33:11 GMT - 05/23/2014
closing remaining 2/3 of 3681 short at 3649..
will check any move at 3634…or 3688
gl gt to all
GVI Forex01:35:46 GMT - 05/23/2014
For the close:
1.3638. = 200 day mva
Close below would expose 1.3559-62
Only above 1.3688 would slow the risk although 1.3650 will help set the tone on what will be a thin pre-holiday Friday
German IFO is the data highlight but will not deter the ECB no matter what the result
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 22:02:25 GMT - 05/22/2014
Thanks, Jay..
still holding 3681 short after 1/3 take off at 3654..
stop at 3670.
weekly, monthly rounding down on trend change south..
daily more apparent and i hr..hitting 55 from 1 hr tunnel
with more to come lower according to setup..
but still stop at 3670..wishing not to risk anymore retrace current 3655
it's friday coming and not wishing to think add levels..so
wait and see price action now..
mho
gl gt
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:46:18 GMT - 05/22/2014
There was chatter of a relief rally after the votes but may have been hope talking.
london red 17:53:05 GMT - 05/22/2014
MEP elections over weekend expected to be disastrous for ruling parties. I would think thats well baked into price, but its no reason to be long euro into the weekend.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:33:50 GMT - 05/22/2014
Closes the week below the 200 day mva?
Agree or disagree?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:01:00 GMT - 05/22/2014
Data misses but USD doesn't seem to care.
EURUSD 1.3688 (1.3685-90) has replaced 1.3730-35 as current resistance.
Nice trading Sanibel.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:16:22 GMT - 05/22/2014
First stab at creating this thread has been a good one (IMHO) and we can do this for any currency. Good for ongoing discussion and for views to be shared on either side. Goal is to come up with trades and differing opinions are welcomed.
Send us feedback if you want to see more like this.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:24:28 GMT - 05/22/2014
FWIW 5 times in the 1.3680s since bottoming yesterday but not able to get through 1.3688.
Logic says a stops level, price action suggests sellers there.
the more GV participants tilt to 1.30 the merrier, love it to be contrarian
NY JM 08:45:30 GMT - 05/22/2014
Then I will ask the sentiment question:
1.30 is more at risk to trade than 1.40 or neither (that would be a depressing thought)
Agree or disagree?
bali sja 08:27:59 GMT - 05/22/2014
London Chris, because you may not see that level anyway, why short? another reason is i see the upside potential is more than the downside, and thus the positioning, can't be perfect with the entry anyway because that is not my trading style
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:17:09 GMT - 05/22/2014
No change to the start of this thread that I posted. trading against 1.3688 has worked several times and still blocks 1.37
Let's try it with specific currencies so it is easier to pick out the topic.
Agree or disagree.
EURUSD will not extend its 7 day pattern around 1.37 today. The best chance of this happening is if flash PMIs exceed forecasts and EURUSD pops up on the data. This would be an opportunity to sell unless it gets back above 1.3735. Currently, 1.3688 blocks return to 1.37.
By the way, it did reach an initial target of 1.3635 (low 1.3633) = 200 day mva where it bounced from.
London Chris 08:10:09 GMT - 05/22/2014
Bali is your anti-USD bias based only on charts. Why not be short eurusd if you see it at 1.35-1.36 or lower?
GVI Forex07:32:49 GMT - 05/22/2014
NEWS: GERMANY FLASH MAY MFG PMI 52.9; MNI MEDIAN 54.1;APRIL 54.1
GERMANY FLASH MAY SVC PMI 56.4; MNI MEDIAN 54.5;APRIL 54.7
GERMANY FLASH MAY COMPOSITE PMI 56.1; APRIL 56.1
Paris ib 07:19:01 GMT - 05/22/2014
Joe maybe you should step out while whatever is happening runs its course. Time out maybe in the fresh air is priceless.
My take is that the USD/JPY is key. JPY has been the funding currency for everything. The universal view was that USD/JPY was going to 110. It's not. But until the longs are stopped out en masse all those trades remain. I'm watching U.S. yields and USD/JPY. If U.S. yields have bottomed (because the heat got to much for the manipulators or the market gets spooked by talk of covert QE or because Yellen and co move further to the hawkish side of things - in my view likely) then we should go back to normal markets. But we aren't there yet and my fear is we may not get there till after Summer.
Anyway till then if you have to trade trade small. I know I am. Good luck, good trades.
Cambridge Joe 07:08:31 GMT - 05/22/2014
ib thank you.
Apology accepted Joe. Sorry your system isn't working. FWIW I don't think markets are functioning normally at present. And I don't think that's accidental.
We very much share the view that the markets are not behaving normally...... I've had perfect signal a number of times, which previously were proved to be almost perfect, and now.... anything but.
I think the way forward for me is to regard such indications as dynamic pivots and to place buys above and sells below. Until now, I got direction, but time and again get run on to the rocks as it were.
Paris ib 07:01:32 GMT - 05/22/2014
Apology accepted Joe. Sorry your system isn't working. FWIW I don't think markets are functioning normally at present. And I don't think that's accidental. Make of it what you will. It can't go on forever but as Keynes pointed out: markets can remain irrational for longer than a person can remain solvent. He was a good trader who sometimes made mistakes.
Soberingly he also said: I work for a Government I despise for ends I think criminal.
So same, old same old, eh?
Cambridge Joe 06:52:15 GMT - 05/22/2014
Paris ib 05:38
ib I do apologise, nothing personal. I'd had possibly too much wine and gave expression when it might have been better not to do so.
To my way of thinking, 'Share your trading ideas' would have 'buy' this or 'sell' that as opposed to open ended musings on the questionable state of the world in general.
Bitter and twisted? Well, maybe a bit. My set-up which once allowed pretty decent timings for upcoming moves has gone off beam and I can't seem to fix it.
GVI Forex06:39:21 GMT - 05/22/2014
EU parliamentary elections are scheduled to begin today, although most countries vote on Sunday. Polls suggest there is likely to be strong support for anti-EU parties in a number of countries, which could fuel concerns about the future of Europe, at least in the near-term. In reality, however, these parties are likely to have little impact on policy.
Today’s May flash’ PMI data for the euro area will provide a further insight on the strength activity in the second quarter. We expect modest falls compared with April but the levels should be consi
Lloyds Bank
Paris ib 05:38:01 GMT - 05/22/2014
Markets have been very gung ho on the Euro and the ECB obviously doesn't like it. We have European elections and the next ECB meeting to get through before you could look for strength. Yellen and company are sounding more hawkish. So I think you could bide your time. Longer term agree, short term the risk reward is against you.
Joe you sound bitter and twisted. Pointless baiting is really well pointless.
I read somewhere that Japanese reported strong buying of foreign bonds. Obviously not Treasuries. Can't find any release though. Does someone have the data?
bali sja 02:42:22 GMT - 05/22/2014
only below 1.3420 on weekly closing basis then all bets are off
bali sja 02:41:14 GMT - 05/22/2014
buy euro with confidence 1.35-1.36 is accumulation zone now during US summer for a big run in the second half of the year
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 00:39:55 GMT - 05/22/2014
agree mainly..looking to enter short here at 3681 and up to 3715
at intervals…with 3715 area stop…tp more like 3600 in my view.
3715 stop is topside of 144/169 1 hr tunnel
weekly looks topping with lower highs and the difference between 5sma and 21 sma weekly getting lower signally trend change south..last 3 weeks..
risk very low under 35 pips and lower for multiple shorts entered higher
mho..
or let it rip lower.
nw kw 23:51:14 GMT - 05/21/2014
EUROZONE MANUFACTURING DATA COULD FUEL QE SPECULATION
The EURUSD declined sharply on Wednesday as Janet Yellen took the stage, and look set to log a daily close below key long term support at 1.3661. For a while now we have been watching this level as on that could possibly represent a completion of the three month double top, and today’s action could be the catalyst behind a short entry with an initial downside target at 1.3593. Don’t be surprised if the pair corrects to retest broken support short term, but look for miss in tomorrow’s PMI releases to strengthen it as in term resistance and validate the aforementioned 1.3593 target.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 23:23:43 GMT - 05/21/2014
Let's try it with specific currencies so it is easier to pick out the topic.
Agree or disagree.
EURUSD will not extend its 7 day pattern around 1.37 today. The best chance of this happening is if flash PMIs exceed forecasts and EURUSD pops up on the data. This would be an opportunity to sell unless it gets back above 1.3735. Currently, 1.3688 blocks return to 1.37.
By the way, it did reach an initial target of 1.3635 (low 1.3633) = 200 day mva where it bounced from.
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