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GVI Forex 06:19:58 GMT - 06/05/2014  
The ECB policy announcement takes centre stage today. At last month’s post-decision press conference, ECB President Draghi suggested the Bank would be ‘comfortable’ with loosening policy at this month’s meeting, largely on the back of subdued inflation. Subsequent comments by Council members, as well as this week’s disappointing inflation and sluggish GDP figures, have further cemented expectations of easing. Our global team expect the main refinancing rate to be cut by15bps to 0.1%, as well as reductions to the marginal lending and deposit rates, which would see the latter falling into negative territory. The Council could announce a range of other measures, including further liquidity provisions such as a longer-dated long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) aimed at boosting bank lending. German factory orders and euro area retail sales for April will be released before the ECB announcement

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook


Minneapolis DRS2  03:01:44 GMT - 06/05/2014  
On the daily charts, EUR/USD is on a downtrend...steep at first, but slowing down near 1.36xx. A small short from 1.3630 or so might make a decent profit, but beware of a short squeeze. The past 3 weeks or so of shorts could provide incredible fuel for a long.


Mtl JP  01:14:54 GMT - 06/05/2014  
haha... wrong guess JM
wanna try again?
2 tries left


NY JM  01:12:59 GMT - 06/05/2014  
JP where is your sell order - I call this a hope trade


Mtl JP  01:10:41 GMT - 06/05/2014  
john 11:15 - lets just say that at 1.36 euro is proving itself hardy.
as usual. because every monkey and his uncle knows - i.e has priced in - a cut to the refi rate, a -tive deposit rate and some sort of a convoluted lending program to loosen up credit where (semi)govt geniuses judge it needed...

Noe it is up to Mario to DISAPPOINT. Preferably massively coz I have an order waiting.

Would you like to know what it is ?
Or prefer to guess at it ?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  21:49:06 GMT - 06/04/2014  
Anyone care to pose a scenario for the ECB meeting?

1.36 just traded for the 8th day in a row so that will be a level that sets the bias going forwards. I have a theory on why these big figures keep attracting/consolidating. Contact me if you want my view on it.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:41:06 GMT - 06/04/2014  
it may come down to where stops are resting. Suggest watching my video. 2 weeks within 1.3584-1.3688.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:23:57 GMT - 06/04/2014  
As posted on GVI Forex


Video Market Update

See the importance of 1.3650


GVI Forex john   11:15:34 GMT - 06/04/2014  
COT is what it is. I don't believe the CFTC is going to change it anytime soon.

My point is that the ECB has provided a lot of forward guidance about what will be announced in about 24 hours, and any trader with a pulse will be positioned the way they want to be into the announcement.

We are now at the point of handicapping the likely REACTION to the news assuming most people have a correct notion of whats going to be released.



Mtl JP  10:56:41 GMT - 06/04/2014  
john 09:17 - Re "markets are now positioned the way they want to be" - is that a COT preview that will become public on Friday ?


GVI Forex john   09:17:41 GMT - 06/04/2014  
Its my view that markets are now positioned the way they want to be into the ECB decision tomorrow. Rate cuts seem to be a given and another LTRO would not ruffle a lot of feathers. As for QE, Its my sense that aggressive steps are still unlikely.

Bottom-line, the market is set up for ECB ease and this leaves a lot of room for disappointment if the central bank does not surprise us.

The odd question is whether not enough action to promote growth will lead to a STRONGER EURUSD? Before the ECB follies on Thursday we get the unpredictable ADP private employment survey from the U.S. on the N.Y. open today. A strong report should be USD supportive. Street expectations for the data are modest.






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