john watching your 200 hour and also 50 on swissy. euro at 13470 smacks a good sell. and as long as we come back down to 30/40 or lower would be ok for next (short). a close near highs if around 60/70 would set us up for a rebound to 135xx next week.
NY JM 14:03:58 GMT - 08/01/2014
Data roulette continues...
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:36:27 GMT - 08/01/2014
100 hour mva that has traded below since mid-July broken (currently 1.3406) but upside capped so far by 200 hour mva (1.3432) -- as posted earlier in my daily outlook video.
Plovdiv Gotin 13:11:52 GMT - 07/31/2014
It seems to me 1.3144(tgt from 1.3994 not be enough for sellers)There are signs for lower levels.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:33:00 GMT - 07/31/2014
US bind yields are driving the market. 10-year is approaching 2.60%, note the fx impact.
NY JM 01:15:22 GMT - 07/29/2014
Looks like one more day biding time until a barrage of key events for the rest of the week.
Market will stay bearish as long as below 1.3450-55
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:13:14 GMT - 07/28/2014
Gotin, beware of seeing your sentiment swing by small moves within a tight range. I cover this and more in my trading tips, which can be used in your everyday trading
1st sign euro is up ....to break 1.3457 and stay above.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:54:35 GMT - 07/28/2014
Market is biding its time ahead of key events this week with the focus on the US (FOMC, GDP, Employment), which should favor the dollar but still data dependent
EUR is at the bottom of the fx food chain - geopolitics also weighing on EUR as stepped up European sanctions on Russia expected
Upside contained as long as below 1.3450-55.
Only 1.3483+ would put 1.35 in play again.
Downside needs firm break of 1.3400 to out the 1.3394 target in play.
Sums it up for a consolidating Monday.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:16:46 GMT - 07/23/2014
Gotin, check your email
Plovdiv Gotin 15:14:49 GMT - 07/23/2014
BTW 1.3475 is the weakest sup in the area 1.34/1.35 leading to 1.3304(-171 pips)....1875.
NY JM 14:39:19 GMT - 07/23/2014
Sub-1.3475 maintains yesterday's breakout. 18 pip EURUSD range so far today.
Mtl JP 13:51:54 GMT - 07/23/2014
Gotin 13:46 until it happens it is a theoretical possibility
Plovdiv Gotin 13:46:28 GMT - 07/23/2014
JP/ And if 1.3370 not hold....1.3295 right?
NY JM 13:35:49 GMT - 07/23/2014
That assumes 1.3475 holds on top.
Plovdiv Gotin 13:21:11 GMT - 07/23/2014
10x
Mtl JP 13:18:46 GMT - 07/23/2014
Gotin - on short-term while under the Pivot, bias is down and some targets are:
Pivot 1.3486 quote:1.3463-ish
Sup 1 1.3441
Sup 2 1.3415
Sup 3 1.3370
Plovdiv Gotin 13:18:03 GMT - 07/23/2014
o.k. understood. Somebody else, pls?TIA.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15:46 GMT - 07/23/2014
Gotin, they are my video.
Plovdiv Gotin 13:10:01 GMT - 07/23/2014
will U post some figures?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:06:06 GMT - 07/23/2014
I offered today's video - covers key levels and targets.
PK- Its not so obvious on the dailies, but recently we stabilized (died) first for a couple of weeks above 1.3600 then we had the same price behavior above 1.3500. Yesterday we traded a 15 pip range above 1.3500. I was just extrapolating and suggesting we could do the same thing above 1.3400 before going for 1.3300 next.
This has a very suspicious feel to me like someone is trying to manage an orderly decline in EURUSD. We know the ECB wants the EURUSD lower, so they would be my number one suspect.
GOT PK 15:50:27 GMT - 07/22/2014
john - "1.3420 or so....". am I missing something? can´t see this as support level. care to elaborate? cheers.
GVI Forex john 15:10:29 GMT - 07/22/2014
Now that we are through EURUSD 1.3500, do we now work our way down to 1.3400 and then stabilize at 1.3420 or so for a week or so before we trade down into the 1.3300's?
EUR is fundamentally weak and the ECB does not mind seeing it fall. This is an unsatisfying move because the USD is seriously flawed. Note I said "flawed", not weak.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:48:51 GMT - 07/22/2014
FWIW, post-CPI bounce high was around 1.3495.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35:20 GMT - 07/22/2014
As I posted on GVI Forex
Mission accomplished with stops taken out below 1.3475. Pause above 1.3450 saw offsets take over and push USD down elsewhere. Res 1.3490-00.
Send me an EMAIL to get access to my video updates on a regular basis
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:35:18 GMT - 07/21/2014
1.35 stays on the radar asd long as sub-1.35 trades.
All covered in my daily video update. EMAIL to get a copy
dc CB 19:19:45 GMT - 07/18/2014
*ESPIRITO SANTO INTERNATIONAL SAYS IT CAN'T MEET OBLIGATIONS
*ES INTERNATIONAL APPLIES FOR `CONTROLLED MANAGEMENT' REGIME UNDER LUXEMBOURG LAW
and to think Portugal once was the Reserve
prague mark 18:32:02 GMT - 07/18/2014
what is funny that 1,3490 held...
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:12:25 GMT - 07/18/2014
I would like to say this is a typical summer Friday as EURUSD has nearly retraced its full day range, and the dollar easing vs most pairs but this market is anything but typical. Resistance still at 1.3535-40.
Stocks have recovered as fresh selling did not emerge today.
london red 13:18:47 GMT - 07/18/2014
stops said to be (i read) under 90 to take us to 75 bids (euro) but others better placed to confirm
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:13:29 GMT - 07/18/2014
1.3500 trades (so much for the invisible hand) ... res now at 1.3512-15, 1.3475 remains the key level. To state the obvious, 1.35 sets the tone.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:20:32 GMT - 07/16/2014
I suggest watching to the end and clicking on the link to my article - it has worked out nicely so far
Waiting for Yellen in a market hyper sensitive e to economic news
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:54:30 GMT - 07/09/2014
As posted on GVIForex - note, move back to 1.3630
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:36 GMT 07/09/2014 - My Profile
Charts show the 1.3660-65 area as next resistance so no obvious stops nearby other than above the day high (1.3642). if the high holds then range initially to 1.3630, which was the overnight high
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:23:34 GMT - 07/09/2014
1.3638 = 50% of 1.3700-1.3574
1.3653 = 61.8%
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:15:31 GMT - 07/09/2014
FWIW EURUSD 1.36 has not traded, low 1.3602 (1.3600 has traded 4 days in a row coming into today, as noted in my video update)
EURUSD getting some support from ITS CROSSES (e.g. EURGBP above .7950 and bounce in EURJPY)
GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:28:47 GMT - 07/08/2014
Worst fear materialized - EURUSD at 1.3611-13 for hours
NY JM 16:53:55 GMT - 07/08/2014
Pathetic short squeeze attempt.
All about equities today.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:22:57 GMT - 07/08/2014
Yesterday EURUSD got stuck around 1.3605-6 for hours after grinding slightly higher
Today it is currently stuck around 1.3611-13 but hope it is not a replay of yesterday.
Using 1.3700-1.3576
1.3623 = 38,2%
1.3638 = 50%
1.3653 = 61.8%
Main focus is on weaker equities to state the obvious.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:18:28 GMT - 07/08/2014
As posted on GVIForex. I also did one for GBPUSD - send me an EMAIL to view it
EURUSD up very slightly up (market except for the die hard bulls want to sell)
USDHPY down (market wants to buy)
GBUSD (and GBP crosses) down (market wants to buy)
No wonder it is a very quiet session
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:21:22 GMT - 07/07/2014
EURUSD tested 1.3600-03 late US on Friday and again since we came in today. Clearly 1.3600 is the pivotal/bias setting level, currently acting as resistance.
1.3598 = 20 day mva
1.3576 = 200 day
1.3570 50 day
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:40:32 GMT - 07/02/2014
1.3650 will now set the bias.
1.3640 is current support, below it sees 1.3600-20 (includes a daily trendline)
On top, 1.3675 is again important (blocks 1.3700)
Livingston nh 12:48:03 GMT - 07/02/2014
EUR/USD failed to hold above the daily 89 ema (1.3681)--But now ADP has raised the bar for tomorrow's events - June has usually lowest plug factor in Q2 and education figs can be distorted in May or June ("Bad weather" extended school year in some states)
So a good NFP effect on USD might be diminished by today's fig
London Chris 12:39:49 GMT - 07/02/2014
For euro bulls ---- have you given up hope for 1.3750?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:33:41 GMT - 07/02/2014
As I noted yesterday -- as 1.3650 trades
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:38 GMT 07/01/2014 - My Profile
This is a question that will force some opinions on the risk
Which has a better chance of trading pre-ECB and NFP
1.3650 or 1.3700?
I see 1.3650 as more at risk, agree or disagree?
mw kw 18:42:26 GMT - 07/01/2014
Dax monthly chart
nw kw 18:37:40 GMT - 07/01/2014
G Bund monthly chart
Mtl JP 17:35:56 GMT - 07/01/2014
respectfully PAR 16:51 ... you, nor anyone, can prove that
GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:11:15 GMT - 07/01/2014
I am using 1.3675 as the pivotal level while within 1,3650-00 and the bounce off it has it testing the 1.3690-95 area I suggested earlier. Much will depend on whether there are stops to run on the upside. JPY has been the underperformer today, suggests carry trade interest with USD and EUR 2nd in line.
PAR16:51:38 GMT - 07/01/2014
Basically if ECB had taken no action Euro would be much lower and real European economy would be in much better shape.
Central bankers are sorcerers apprentices who think they know , but they just dont know .
london red 16:49:28 GMT - 07/01/2014
following the current trend the high could have come in anywhere from 13650-13750. anytime we do more than 50% the chance is we will explore further upside so the region between 13730-50 becomes key. it will need something hawkish out of the ecb or dovish from the fed, or some poor data from the US to take us above those resistance, in which case youd need to look to 138.
cable closing above res at 17120 makes 17337 more likely but equally likely, given that there has been no pullback, that 17337 marks a multi week high, being 50% of 1.35-2.12. take note that cable has barely traded in junes range (applies to euro also to a lesser degree) and this will likely be corrected by the end of the month, so on no pullback to at least 1.70, a top at 17337 if reached looks like on a medium term basis.
Livingston nh 16:46:25 GMT - 07/01/2014
last 60 days -- Technicals play a role (e.g., above 1.81 there are no daily MA resistances), fundamentals are on the shelf for now but the big moves come on "events" and the "expectations" those events promote
EUR moved on ECB and now says no more ECB -- above 1.37 could come on any event and below 1.3650 the same
ECB has no more events so fiscal EU policy becomes important (fundamental) -- events for EUR/USD will be only EU private sector or US data that will alter expectations
Israel Dil 16:45:40 GMT - 07/01/2014
SellEURUSD Entry: Target: 1.3550 this week Stop:
i put money that this week will close below 1.36
GVIForex Jay Meisler 16:33:14 GMT - 07/01/2014
Or when those currencies meet resistance, EURUSD will fall out of cross offsets.
Personally I hope it firms to give better sell levels.
kl fs 16:30:18 GMT - 07/01/2014
with aud and gbp charging on relentlessly, euro will be pulled up later as well
GVIForex Jay Meisler 16:19:23 GMT - 07/01/2014
fs, that is the purpose of this thread and differing opinions is what makes a market.
It all depends on whether 1.37 is broken. if 1.3700 is not broken then 1.3650 is at risk. if 1.37 breaks, then risk is for 1.3735-75
EURUSD will lag USD weakness.
kl fs 16:13:22 GMT - 07/01/2014
meanwhile aud and gbp will make new highs against usd
kl fs 16:12:03 GMT - 07/01/2014
disagree, prisoners yesterday will make sure 1.3650 will never be traded, most likely they will cut back losses on any approach to 1.3670
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:38:09 GMT - 07/01/2014
This is a question that will force some opinions on the risk
Which has a better chance of trading pre-ECB and NFP
1.3650 or 1.3700?
I see 1.3650 as more at risk, agree or disagree?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:22:01 GMT - 07/01/2014
If 1.3675 holds then selling interest slows and we go into one of those sideways ranges (1.3675-90/95?). If 1.3675 gives way then risk is 1.3640-50.
Also, 1.3739 = 100 day mva, which is within my resistance zone
kl fs 15:17:08 GMT - 07/01/2014
Jay, 1.3675 holds, we go up from here?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:54:28 GMT - 07/01/2014
See my earlier post -- 1.37 proving to be a top (EUR crosses argue that way) - see now if 1.3675 holds.
Livingston nh 12:30:47 GMT - 07/01/2014
a big event week so a spike to 1.3730 (50 bps above daily 89 ema) is possible as yesterday's close above 89 ema // two risks today are reaction to a US PMI and 3 yr auction (like the 2 yr reception?)
ECB will be status quo like the Fed -- so short term neutral to positive for EUR // so any downside has to come from market reaction to US data
GVI Forex john 12:22:54 GMT - 07/01/2014
EUR-based Heat Map. EUR broadly weaker (EURJPY higher on the day). It is still below its 20-day moving averages in most key relationships.
Mtl JP 12:07:58 GMT - 07/01/2014
The technical bet on fundamental ECB is simple:
IF you think ECB is going to be of help in your bias
sell eurdlr for initial 1.3650 trgt with a 1.3720/5 stop
NY JM 11:58:48 GMT - 07/01/2014
Weak EUR crosses are keeping it below 1.37 while offsets pressure the USD lower elsewhere (except vs JPY)
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:28:40 GMT - 07/01/2014
EURUSD 1,37 will be the pre-ECB meeting top - agree or disagree?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:03:47 GMT - 06/30/2014
As I posted here earlier:
- How the market ends the week more important than how it starts out
- Chance eurusd could run stops, especially if flash HICP ticks up as expected
- If eurusd runs stops, then there is a chance of a Monday Effect week if Monday's high becomes the high for the week
- Watch 1.3650 and more important 1.3675
- US 10-year 2.50% yield may hold a key to how it trades
- Month/quarter/half year end flows to dominate Monday
Paris ib 18:42:31 GMT - 06/24/2014
No not today, but that's the direction.
Chicago Aga 18:41:34 GMT - 06/24/2014
Paris IB, I don't think you see it today.
Paris ib 18:09:48 GMT - 06/24/2014
NY JM 18:04 - don't worry we're going back there.
NY JM 18:04:29 GMT - 06/24/2014
Stocks slip into the red and markets get spooked.
if you blinked you missed the high (1.3618) so have to stay alert.
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:41:30 GMT - 06/24/2014
JM// EUR bottom for the month already made, looking for a top level of 13911/13871/13832 in coming days/weeks... then we look for 13424/13383/13345.
Failure at 13911 means we shift to monthly charts...
Trend is still down.
NY JM 16:06:47 GMT - 06/24/2014
1.40 has been the line in the sand all year and assume the top is in unless it gets taken out, which I give very low odds.
Mtl JP 15:51:36 GMT - 06/24/2014
JM is the 1.40 from your Forex Maximum Pain calculator ?
NY JM 15:48:06 GMT - 06/24/2014
JP, ECB has put a cap the EURUSD upside so we know the top but not the bottom. 1.40 would suprise me a lot more than 1.30.
Mtl JP 15:43:21 GMT - 06/24/2014
NY JM 15:01 we both seem to prefer shorting euro on pops.
Wonder if it is because of the dovish Draghi ECB ?
Mtl JP 15:29:12 GMT - 06/24/2014
1.3590 3x bottom here and current support
head n shoulder players on edge
USA BJ 15:18:29 GMT - 06/24/2014
Unless it gets back above 1.3675-80 expect another run at 1.35. it is a matter of when not imo
NY JM 15:01:05 GMT - 06/24/2014
JP, a great # to fade if there is any reaction.
Mtl JP 14:58:13 GMT - 06/24/2014
Jay note: WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25
US - 8:30 am GDP revision 1Q exp.: -2.0% vs last: -1.0%
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:51:02 GMT - 06/24/2014
Not many trade calls today -- it is like different centers are trading with different agendas and thus lack of follow through from session to session.
Market still seems to require data to move
Anyone see it different?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:13:13 GMT - 06/24/2014
And now we head back towards 1.3600 ... Levels were all spelled out in my Daily Forex Trading Outlook video (1.3633-42 => 1.3615 => 1.3600) and for those who have not taken advantage of my offer, you missed out today.
NY JM 12:11:32 GMT - 06/24/2014
Tallin, good plan but probably hard to reach unless EURGBP liquidates more (higher).
eurusd
Tallinn viies 09:57 GMT 06/24/2014
plan to sell euro at 1.3635-40 area. still think 1.3500 will be tested again before this month is over. ver very strong resistance now is 1.3675-80
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:38:47 GMT - 06/24/2014
ECB wants a limit on the EURUSD upside but if it really wants the currency significantly lower, then QE is the answer and that is not on the table now even though Draghi leaves it open as a policy tool.
nw kw 05:02:13 GMT - 06/24/2014
swiss can be a carry trade the gov. keeps Lowe rates can be trending soft
Brock Thor 02:10:56 GMT - 06/24/2014
I'm staying long to 1.36142 to 47 pips above.
DOW had small loss today.
Thinking gains Tuesday.
Should reach out 47 tp.
Agreed about war not effecting market .
Thought there would be more impact on this end.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:12:23 GMT - 06/24/2014
EURUSD 1.36 trades for 5th day
GVI Forex16:59:47 GMT - 06/23/2014
Monday, June 23, 2014 11:57:51 AM
(EU) ECB's Nowotny: ECB is interested in limiting EUR strength, but has no FX target
- EMU recovery has been somewhat weak, face danger that the cost of crisis could be that potential growth may be limited
- Germany is increasingly becoming Europe's growth engine
- ECB is significantly undershooting goal of price stability, but eurozone is not seeing deflation.
- Expecting inflation to be below the ECB targets until 2016
- Main issues in bank lending is weak demand
- Funding for lending scheme by the BOE has not been seen as a large success
- Narrowing spreads on peripheral debt is not simply because of ECB action, but also due to growing investor interest in the Eurozone
- Hope banks will regain full trust of the market after the asset quality review is completed.
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:22:43 GMT - 06/23/2014
This is one of those low volatility days and a key is to recognize it beforehand so you can adjust accordingly if you choose to trade.
Paris ib 15:32:57 GMT - 06/23/2014
John I think investors are nervous generally. And that's everywhere. It's the speculators who may have pulled their heads in. Something is brewing and I think what we are seeing is positions being closed more than anything.
GVI Forex john 15:27:52 GMT - 06/23/2014
ib- you may be right. I can see some investors nervous about investing in the states.
Paris ib 15:20:38 GMT - 06/23/2014
The market smells a rat.
NY JM 14:35:27 GMT - 06/23/2014
John, good use of the word "SHOULD"
GVI Forex john 14:13:28 GMT - 06/23/2014
Strong U.S. data today, although some wonder if the housing improvement is sustainable.
SHOULD be a weight on EURUSD? if not, we are trading on something else.
nw kw 13:11:46 GMT - 06/23/2014
CHICAGO -- U.S. lumber futures Thursday bounded higher as traders see stronger demand for construction materials in the cash markets. More optimistic market sentiment has also been ushered in following a stronger-than-expected gauge of home-builder confidence this week.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:01:23 GMT - 06/23/2014
I prefer to focus my patterns on the short term but this was posted just now on GVI Forex by one of our senior members
I took a closer look and out of the past 22 days, the high has been 1.36xx on 17 days and 1.35xx on 5 days
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:46:18 GMT - 06/23/2014
As I posted on GVIForex
Market assumes EURUSD range is 1.35-1.37 so it should not be a surprise to see 1.36 become the focal point.
1.36 has traded 3 days in a row and if you include last Wednesday when the high was 1.3599, you can make a case that it is 4 days.
The longer this pattern goes on the better the chance of a directional move once broken. In the meantime, have been trading under the assumption of a 1.3550-1.3650 range as long as this pattern is valid.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:50:11 GMT - 06/23/2014
Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video
I included game changer levels in today's video and what it would taker to break a range currently focused on 1.36.
If you would like to see the video update, send me an EMAIL
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:55:06 GMT - 06/20/2014
This worked like a blueprint
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:44 GMT 06/20/2014 - My Profile
200 hour mva proving to be a support level (low 1.3564). Hope it proved helpful but would need 1.3585+ to put 1.36 in play again.
Reply.
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:11 GMT 06/20/2014 - My Profile
One hour chart shows support at 1.3535-45 but 1.3550 is the bottom of the 1.3550-1.3650 range I have been citing in my videos/
200 hour mva (gold line) is currently at 1.3560.
Reply
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:44:01 GMT - 06/20/2014
200 hour mva proving to be a support level (low 1.3564). Hope it proved helpful but would need 1.3585+ to put 1.36 in play again.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:11:59 GMT - 06/20/2014
One hour chart shows support at 1.3535-45 but 1.3550 is the bottom of the 1.3550-1.3650 range I have been citing in my videos/
200 hour mva (gold line) is currently at 1.3560.
HK[email protected]11:31:30 GMT - 06/20/2014
Brace for 1.3533 medium strength support, on the way.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:18:59 GMT - 06/20/2014
1.3585 has flipped between support and resistance this week so move back to it should not be a surprise after 1.3600 gave way.
Key level is around 1.3550 but the 1.3580-05 area needs to hold for 1.36 to have a magnetic pull.
It looks like 1.35-1.37 until further notice.
NY JM 11:44:27 GMT - 06/13/2014
Personally I do not see the love affair with the EURUSD. ECB wants it down but need the sovereigns to step aside.
Defensive Friday the 13th expected. Key levels cited. Note the power of 1.3550
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 14:46:50 GMT - 06/12/2014
stopped out 41 sht at 50
gone grouper fishing
#5 -9
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 13:13:28 GMT - 06/12/2014
gm
3541 short .stop 3550 ist tp 3512..
roll em..
Livingston nh 12:28:54 GMT - 06/12/2014
Agree very much with the perception of movement while in a narrow range -- after the last three tops it took some time to feel the impact (avg 3k) - the last bottom made only after Ben's nightmare induced QE3 in 2012// if this move is real and follows the script we should have some serious downside days the balance of the year -- Volatility PLEASE
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:00:06 GMT - 06/12/2014
37 pip range yesterday, around 38 so far today. When in tight ranges, small moves can feel like big ones.
On paper, EURUSD is lined up in a perfect storm to move lower yet I get the feeling there is an anti-dollar bias in the market, especially outside the US. Crosses suggest an anti-EUR bias as well but not as much vs. the dollar. This would change if 1.3475 is firmly taken out.
Anyone see it different?
Brock Thor 23:36:52 GMT - 06/11/2014
EURUSD Entry: Target: Stop:
Opened two short trades yesturday.
Combined + 91 pips.
Reuters-
Further down side likely...
Stops below 1.3503 could see further sharp falls in days ahead.
Any move to 1.36 is low risk chance to get short.
_-------_---------------------
If seen I'll add another short below 1.3503.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:17:51 GMT - 06/11/2014
DP, I would assign almost zero probability of making a run at 1.38 this week
As for a Monday Effect, the high for the week was set on Monday so if there is a risk it is on the down not upside.
However, this works best when the market loads up one way at the start of the week and is left to the mercy of the market after mid-week when the price moves away from the Monday high or low.
Let me know if this is clear.
prague mark 18:59:36 GMT - 06/11/2014
red,
135 is 34bn so 136 will be hit in 6-8h time frame from now. GL/GT
london red 18:54:10 GMT - 06/11/2014
[email protected] expires tomorrow. we could do the 135 barrier and back up by expiry, its a possibility. taking timing issues into account it means the barrier would need to be done by mid morning london time with an hourly reversal to have a crack at upper 135's by the late afternoon.
Kaunas DP 17:57:04 GMT - 06/11/2014
Jay, dont you think eur/usd will show Monday effect this week... UP to 1.3788-1.3798...imho
kw, if those are not your words, pls cite the source
nw kw 16:49:46 GMT - 06/11/2014
The Risk Today:
EURUSD's bullish intraday reversal on 5 June has created a key support at 1.3503. Monitor that level as buying interest has thus far remained weak. Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.3602 (10/06/2014 high) and 1.3677. In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. The long-term downside risk implied by the double-top formation is 1.3379. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:47:12 GMT - 06/11/2014
One way to look at the market is that the dollar needs to find a bottom vs the cross offset currencies for the EURUSD to bear the brunt of EUR cross selling. Right now it is a little of each (EURUSD soft, offsets pushing the USD down elsewhere).
I call this cross trading 101.
nw kw 16:36:34 GMT - 06/11/2014
JPY-crosses mixed pre-BoJ
EUR/JPY broke its 200-dma (138.72) on the downside given the broad based selling pressures on EUR. Consolidation below the 200-dma should intensify the downside pressures towards 137.98 (May low), then 136.23 (2014 low). Large option barriers trail below 139.00 for today expiry.
Walking into June 12-13th BoJ meeting, traders are likely to turn neutral on JPY-crosses given the risk of a short-term increase in JPY-demand following a status quo announcement (consensus). As mentioned previously, the current capital flows are mostly driven by interest rate differentials and central banks’ policy outlooks. Given the aggressive monetary stimulus in the Euro-zone and liquidity expansionist measures in China, we doubt a pullback in JPY crosses due to BoJ inaction. We will be also seeking reaction from Japan to ECB and PBoC actions. Given the improvement in domestic macro fundamentals, BoJ has no apparent reason to act in June meeting. In fact, Japan released 6.7% growth in GDP (q/q annualized) in the first quarter with significant expansion of 7.6% in business spending (vs. 4.6% exp. & 4.9% last). The domestic corporate good prices advanced 0.3% m/m in May (vs. 0.1% exp. & 2.8% after April’s tax hikes), bringing CGPI to 4.4% y/y (vs. 4.1% expected and last). The sales tax hike has seemingly not hit the corporate price dynamics back to pre-hike levels. The inflation dynamics remain in line with BoJ’s 2.0% target.
e/u fib in play 50% at1.3380/if 1.35 gives out
Paris ib 16:32:25 GMT - 06/11/2014
The bottom line is we wait for the FED. Hawkish FED may get the USD up a bit.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:30:47 GMT - 06/11/2014
So what's the bottom line - is a break below 1.35 inevitable?
I surely hope we don't get stuck 1.35-1.37.
EZ (except Germany) needs a EURUSD at 1.25-1.30 or even 1.20.
nw kw 16:21:13 GMT - 06/11/2014
China signed an energy deal[that's wars are for hier price
Paris ib 16:15:22 GMT - 06/11/2014
Yeah but they don't get that from the U.S., recently Russia and China signed an energy deal. Not in USDs.
nw kw 16:10:49 GMT - 06/11/2014
China and Japan[need]nearly 2.5 trillion of U.S. Government oil and ngas
Paris ib 16:03:59 GMT - 06/11/2014
Correction: China and Japan hold nearly 2.5 trillion of U.S. Government debt between them.
Aud and Kiwi underpinned by carry trade. RBNZ IR decision tomorrow, with another 25bp rise expected.
The Euro was again under pressure today, giving up last week’s late gains and dragging the other Euro majors lower, with the dollar being the major beneficiary as traders eyed firmer US Treasury yields. The Aud and Kiwi also both performed well as yield players underpinned demand for the carry trade. In the absence of any major data today it could be one of consolidation with the session highlights likely to be the WBC Australian Consumer Confidence and the UK Unemployment data.
EUR/USD: 1.3543
The Euro faced another selloff in early Europe and has now given up most of the gains from last week’s bounce following the ECB easing. Reasons for the move have been pointed at an ECB Board member (Finnish central bank Governor, Liikanen), who noted the impact of a prolonged period of low inflation and reiterated the ECB’s “determination and capacity to act.” Elsewhere leveraged names were noted sellers, on the back of market talk regarding the impact of potential reserve-manager sales of the Euro due to negative deposit rates.
Paris ib 15:59:38 GMT - 06/11/2014
The Japanese and Chinese hold 2 trillion worth of U.S. debt between then. The FED has not financed the deficit by printing money, it has merely manipulated financial markets and weakened the USD. When we look back we will wonder why the FED chose to threaten the USD status as an international reserve currency. A country relying on foreign capital inflows can not do what a country like Japan did. Japan was a capital exporter and did not need or want foreign capital inflows. The U.S. is not in the same position. How they missed that crucial point is beyond me.
HK[email protected]15:59:19 GMT - 06/11/2014
Most of all no Euro funds parking in GOLD, where the FED Banksters; JP and Sachsy are waiting to diminish it's value, hehehe
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:54:59 GMT - 06/11/2014
Deficit has been financed by the Fed orienting money
Longer-term, a key is whether the US gets an energy policy that leads to self sufficiency.
This would change the market dynamic.
Paris ib 15:51:56 GMT - 06/11/2014
The market is long USD/JPY because the universal call has been 'flood of money' and - of course - USD/JPY to 110...... and it's not happening. Unfortunately I think the USD brand has been damaged. The FED has a credibility issue, plus the reliance on foreign capital and a war mongering foreign policy means that the USD is not attracting long term capital inflows. What you got is a chronic trade deficit, a current account deficit and an absolutely unbelievable Government debt which is financed to a large extent by foreign capital. That puts the U.S. in a very delicate position.
nw kw 15:51:31 GMT - 06/11/2014
The GDP of the EU is about $12 trillion, the largest in the world in purchase power parity terms.
The Euro is the second most important currency in the world. Many traders regard it as a future alternative to the US dollar, and while the dollar losing the main advantages of its dominant status is unlikely any time soon, it is true that the Euro has greatest potential becoming the new global currency over the longer term.
Trends in the Euro are mostly determined by speculative flows, central bank behavior (especially that of the Chinese, Russian, and Middle Eastern central banks), risk sentiment, and general market dynamics. Trends in the Euro often correlate well stock or commodity market trends. When prices of raw materials rise, much of the earnings of raw materials exporters are channeled to the Euro for diversification purposes.
looking for e/y carry trade price
prague viktor 15:51:20 GMT - 06/11/2014
1,4
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:49:15 GMT - 06/11/2014
I do agree on the sanctions as they can only strengthen the desire of reserve managers to continue diversifying. In other times EURUSD would already be on a steamroll for 1.30.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:44:50 GMT - 06/11/2014
JPY is trading like this because the market is short, underwater and hoping for a BoJ lifesaver (i.e. more QE), which has not been forthcoming.
Paris ib 15:42:38 GMT - 06/11/2014
Jay I think USD/JPY is more important and where real flows show up. Europe does not want a flood of hot money, France wants a weaker Euro but the problem is that the USD is a risk.
HK[email protected]15:40:22 GMT - 06/11/2014
After what the US has been cooking in Ukraine, sparking a new Cold War, thus making themselves so unlovable in Europe...
Maybe depositors would like to have a break from them(US), especially those who are at risk of their money... frozen/confiscated by the great moral police and defender of human rights of the universe. .
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:39:38 GMT - 06/11/2014
You would think the EUR is going up as there are still more talking it up here than talking it down. ECB wants a lower EURUSD but market is following the path of least resistance via its crosses.
If I ran a poll, what comes next 1.30 or 1.40, how many would say 1.30? How many 1.40? How many neither?
Paris ib 15:34:06 GMT - 06/11/2014
Maybe the could get U.S. companies to repatriate profits. That might work. Foreigners aren't keen to take a risk on what looks like an increasingly unpredictable and unreliable administration.
Paris ib 15:31:33 GMT - 06/11/2014
There is no special new reason to sell Euros. The modest changes to interest rates made by the ECB is not really that big of a deal. The Yanks keep on coming up with all these exciting new reasons why money will start flooding into their currency and their country. The wall of money.... which never happened. It sounds a lot like wishful thinking. They need to get their house in order and stop relying on foreign capital inflows.
HK[email protected]15:09:26 GMT - 06/11/2014
Since the Americans have proven themselves dishonest when it came to the return of the German gold, I suspect that some will prefer parking their Euro in GBP, or near home in Swiss Frank.
GVI Forex john 14:14:25 GMT - 06/11/2014
Hearing the ECB rate cut has finally started to hit the repo market today. This means that European banks are in search of new places to park their excess EUR funds. There are not a lot of choices. One home may be USD liquid short term-assets. This would generate demand for the USD vs the EUR (EURUSD selling).
We don't know as of this time how much will be flowing into the USD, but this could mark a significant change in the dynamics of the forex market in favor of the USD. So keep alert!
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04:45 GMT - 06/11/2014
As posted on GVI Forex
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:31 GMT 06/11/2014 - My Profile
Retail sales tomorrow should be supportive as well as FOMC meeting next week so this suggests a limit on the USD downside, at least vs the EUR.
Question is whether the market can run stops as except for the post-ECB meeting whipsaw, retracement attempts have been tepid and never got any steam.
Right now 1.3550 pivotal (sets the tone) as market takes a step back.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21:27 GMT - 06/11/2014
RF, great minds think alike!
Cape Town LV 13:20:47 GMT - 06/11/2014
I am still hanging onto my long at 1.3535 - here in Cape Town :)
HK[email protected]13:19:17 GMT - 06/11/2014
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:56
Euro may have doubled bottomed.
HK [email protected] 09:43 GMT 06/11/2014
...............................
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:56:02 GMT - 06/11/2014
EURUSD one hour currently showing a double to around 1.3557 and double bottom around 1.3521
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:03:10 GMT - 06/11/2014
It looks like market does not have the punch to go after 1.35 (assuming it is being defended, I also read chatter of sovereign bids) as focus on EUR crosses more than vs. the USD but risk stays on this level unless 1.3550+ is regained.
SaaR KaL 07:26:28 GMT - 06/11/2014
Amman
is where Forky lives
In Jordon
CapeTown LV 07:20:45 GMT - 06/11/2014
HK [email protected] 07:04 GMT 06/11/2014
----------------------------------------
I think Amman is a place?
HK[email protected]07:04:44 GMT - 06/11/2014
Kal
According to your suggested levels you may have begun to short Euro too.
Or maybe you wait for 1.3588 suggested by Amman?
Could not be excluded, as most Spec. are now short heavy on Euro.
SaaR KaL 06:59:49 GMT - 06/11/2014
RF
LOL...I agree totally
I am starting to short Cable
DOn think will go higher then 1.6780
tgt 1.6700
HK[email protected]06:27:23 GMT - 06/11/2014
Credit? Who needs credit? Pfff, you mean cash deposits into their secret Swiss bank accounts?
SaaR KaL 06:06:16 GMT - 06/11/2014
Maybe good traders tell them when to talk.. ;)
SO they get credit for being in control
HK[email protected]05:41:43 GMT - 06/11/2014
Kal
It has already happened in the past and not only once.
SaaR KaL 05:28:51 GMT - 06/11/2014
RF
I think that is way over rating Politicians / Bankers
I do not think that is true
HK[email protected]05:26:48 GMT - 06/11/2014
Usually all what it takes, is banks sending a politician or a top banker to open his mouth, and a rally begins.
This usually happens after bankers have already loaded position up to their teeth.
bali sja 05:16:48 GMT - 06/11/2014
hoahmm, all it takes is one sharp snap back rally.....meanwhile enjoy the range
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:11:32 GMT - 06/11/2014
SF hard to be bullish... even if 1.35 holds for now which is clearly at risk
syd sf 00:32:35 GMT - 06/11/2014
it is hard to be too bearish when your on the bid buying back short positions -- also 1.3500 supported a rally to 1.3670 - so more price action would be needed to show that level has some chance to break.
also aud nzd cad are not showing any USD Strength -- and gbp may fall some more today down to 1.6710/15 -- but it too hardly inspires a huge run into USD.
overall its a eurusd cross driven market - but how far can that go on its own.
Sure you have a point in that people who bought yesterday are probably a little nervous .. but anyway that's what makes a market -- someone has to sell the lows and buy the highs - they don't make themselves.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:30:19 GMT - 06/11/2014
,1.3475 - you saw my targets in my outlook video
Mtl JP 00:22:33 GMT - 06/11/2014
almost everyone is currently targeting 1.3477
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:00:17 GMT - 06/11/2014
Interesting that there have not been many bear EURUSD calls here despite the downside risk.
If you would like to see a preview of my Wednesday outlook video send me an email [email protected]
nw kw 15:47:31 GMT - 06/10/2014
sell pownd xaugbp going up
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:45:20 GMT - 06/10/2014
The slower the move the less chance of a sharp retracement,.
Mtl JP 15:38:06 GMT - 06/10/2014
potentially a yang
realistically a ying
Livingston nh 15:29:51 GMT - 06/10/2014
1.3550 is the wkly 55 ema and 1.3555 is the very long term DAILY 233 EMA -- so weekly avgs are now the place I look for any support (the dailies are all gone and declining) - the cluster of 89, 1444 and 233 wkly EMA are between 1.3410 and 1.3480
The old rule is you can always weaken your currency (yen being the exception, of course)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:27:14 GMT - 06/10/2014
JP, do you see the risk on the ying or the yang?
Mtl JP 15:22:19 GMT - 06/10/2014
Jay 14:52 -> the tone: ying yang ding dong
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 14:58:22 GMT - 06/10/2014
trade 3540 L remainder stopped BE.
have a good day..
#4
london red 14:53:30 GMT - 06/10/2014
euro support 13474-13490
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:52:42 GMT - 06/10/2014
Notice the power of the 50" level in setting the tone.
GBPUSD 16750 is in sight and thus pivotal for this pair.
nw kw 14:03:04 GMT - 06/10/2014
bund broke support 145.08/eur is finished/dax will thrust up at 10006.5
NY JM 13:59:54 GMT - 06/10/2014
Good alert on the options - note how it has settled around 1.3550
JPY and commodity currencies getting the flows, GBP lost steam.
London Chris 13:51:18 GMT - 06/10/2014
At least the ranges are getting a little wider
test may come after 1400gmt options expiration time.
Bali have you given up the bear USD?
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 13:51:16 GMT - 06/10/2014
shamelessly taking some off at 50 for ten pips..stop still 40BE.
have to rig my new storm jib now for summer storms in Gulf o mex
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 12:30:23 GMT - 06/10/2014
that was quick enuff.stop to 3540 BE..
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:25:30 GMT - 06/10/2014
FIBOS for the day range
1.3559 = 38.2%
1.3567 = 50%
1.3575 = 61.8%
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 12:05:50 GMT - 06/10/2014
entered 3540 long.stop 30.for 3606/3620..
looking for a BE trade..
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23:41 GMT - 06/10/2014
I have offered free access to my daily videos - if you want access, send me an EMAIL
30 continues to offer good support. i suspect a chunk is down to short covering. for me the near term range is 30 up to the 200 day.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:10:24 GMT - 06/06/2014
This pattern is one of my favorite and when broken it more often than not leads to a directional move. In this case I have an open mind but would need confirmation before turning bullish. Otherwise it is a 1.35-1.37 range.
jkt abel 15:03:04 GMT - 06/06/2014
disagree Jay, above 1.36 close is bullish IMO for next week
london red 14:50:25 GMT - 06/06/2014
moving towards the end of the hour, normally a bit of action particularly on a friday afternoon. thru 36 or 30 decides this possies fate.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:44:30 GMT - 06/06/2014
EURUSD has closed within 1.3595-1.3654 for 11 days in a row, within 1.3595-1.3685 for 12 days and 1.3595-1.3698 for 13 days.
Break of 7 day pattern where 1.36 has traded is typically bullish but close within the existing range and below 1.3654 (also 1.3655-58 = 200/20 day mvas) neutralizes to an extent.
Last close above the 20 day mva was on May 7
london red 14:27:36 GMT - 06/06/2014
stop now a point in my favour. looking for under 30. if not will close.
london red 14:24:39 GMT - 06/06/2014
sold at 40, stop at 57. below 36 gives another attempt at last hour low. if get thru there will lower stop to evens
london red 14:18:03 GMT - 06/06/2014
not sure about dnt at 137 (heard 138/135) but a few bn worth expiries going out at 136-13650 during next week
london red 14:06:22 GMT - 06/06/2014
if going lower you want to be in it before those lines are taken Jay. lot of support there so should move to 136/13585. lot of large expiries at 136 next week hampering upside but equally plenty short so can see under 13585 without a good bounce from there first.
Livingston nh 14:06:20 GMT - 06/06/2014
Are EUR options going out anywhere today -- would think 1.36 strike is gravity or 1.37 dnt ?? //declining 21 dma @1.3663
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:01:15 GMT - 06/06/2014
100 and 200 hour mva still converging in a near flat line around 1.3617
london red 14:00:06 GMT - 06/06/2014
lower hourly low closing below prev low but not yet low of day. fresh hour gives us op for even 200 day again and still down. so selling 45/50 for thru 20 my plan.
london red 13:40:49 GMT - 06/06/2014
eurusd stopped 45. 30 support, with hourly low just below that. then the 10 day. below 3620 then selling increases again.
london red 13:24:53 GMT - 06/06/2014
fwiw if eurusd has reversed this week only can assume eurgbp is going to test 8155/67 (last weeks high a little below there) and possibly break it depending on eurusd performance. gbp has solid fundamentals so sales at 8190-8250 make sense if seen.
london red 13:06:47 GMT - 06/06/2014
we should try one more time for fib. it may get to 74 and break or it may fall short somewhere at 65/70. will be looking at triple top shs if so, so if cannot go up this third time ill look for under 200 day down to 10 day.
london red 13:04:10 GMT - 06/06/2014
long 55 stop 45
london red 12:58:35 GMT - 06/06/2014
covered 66. lets try one more time at 74 and if fails then its down. it up to 75/76 surely must go up.
london red 12:55:28 GMT - 06/06/2014
NY im neither bull nor bear, price action dictates my view. not good enough to call it long term. short term more often right than wrong and that enough for me.
london red 12:53:48 GMT - 06/06/2014
struggling this is something new at res for first time since break above 13573 yesterday. short term high in sold 73 stop above 80
london red 12:50:47 GMT - 06/06/2014
74 seen if doesnt go within a minute its back down
Paris ib 12:46:52 GMT - 06/06/2014
We're going to end up with an entirely ECB driven market. Top last ECB meeting. Low this ECB meeting.
NY JM 12:45:46 GMT - 06/06/2014
Red, I see you flipped to the bull side.
Looking at charts, anyone who sold over the past 2 weeks, which is half the time being ECB meetings, is underwater.
All depends now whether stops build above the market.
london red 12:40:18 GMT - 06/06/2014
NY, inclined to think it will go as all May everyone was selling with almost no bounce to speak of. now theyve got it and not everyone can get out through a small door at the same time. think can buy 200 day with stop under 20 or so.
NY JM 12:38:29 GMT - 06/06/2014
Still facing an invisible hand at 1.3670?
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 12:35:07 GMT - 06/06/2014
out 3659 short totally 3629..
gl gt.
grouper charts next
jkt abel 12:17:50 GMT - 06/06/2014
talking about rate hiking, it will be UK first
GVI Forex john 12:08:05 GMT - 06/06/2014
Something else to watch for. Data seems to leak more than ever these days. Keep an eye on gold and silver. We have seen moves in these markets first recently/
Will EURUSD 8 day pattern around 1.36 be broken? How much risk on the upside?
GVI Forex john 11:46:43 GMT - 06/06/2014
Can we assume that "Jay's" invisible hand will be there today if the EURUSD somehow rallies on the data, and if so is there an obvious level to expect to see them?
london red 11:40:18 GMT - 06/06/2014
Taken some of the table here at 47 ahead of nfp. Looking to go in short usd with tight stop.
NY 13476 13993
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:28:44 GMT - 06/06/2014
This is not your father's FX market - in the old days the EUR would have gotten smashed by the ECB easing.
One source of EUR strength until Draghi deflated the balloon last month were inflows into the peripheral countries. We are seeing strength in those markets since the ECB meeting, suggests one source of support for the EUR.
Livingston nh 11:09:01 GMT - 06/06/2014
Draghi set the interest rate battle line as fixed for 4 yrs so now the rate expectations pressure w/i non EUR EU and other economies will begin to dominate -- who hikes first ??
jkt abel 10:58:31 GMT - 06/06/2014
1.5 hours to oblivion for usd ;)
NY JM 10:44:58 GMT - 06/06/2014
Red, this does not calculate to 1.3674
61.8 of jan to may 135/140 is 13674
london red 10:34:15 GMT - 06/06/2014
61.8 of jan to may 135/140 is 13674 with 144 ema is couple of pips below. Above there is 50% at 13737. As said before former needs to be taken or risk to 13586.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:23:41 GMT - 06/06/2014
I was told years ago that key reversal days do not always work in fx so I take notice of it but do not follow it with blind faith.
All I am saying is put price action in perspective and levels that would need to be taken out to force a further retracement.
For me, there are two scenarios for the EURUSD, bear or range. I have a hard time seeing a sustained uptrend.
Otherwise, look across-the-board and USD is generally weak, which is really odd ahead of a US jobs report. USD selling is partly explained by EUR giving back some cross gains from yesterday.
I think 1.3650 is an important level for the bull side, 1.36 for the bear side.
jkt abel 10:18:29 GMT - 06/06/2014
Jay, key day reversal with long tail as well
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:12:27 GMT - 06/06/2014
For the EURUSD bulls (and there seem to be many), you need to put the price action in perspective:
1) 1.3691 = 38.2% of 1.3996-1.3503 so it has not even retraced 38.2% of the move
2) Bounced off 1.3670, which was a 2 week high
3) Current pattern is 1.36 has traded 7 days in a row so needs to stay above it to support a bull case
4) Trading ahead of NFP roulette is like rolling the dice in Las Vegas
5) 20 day mva = 1.3658 and 200 day mva = 1.3655 so close vs. these levels are important
6) ECB does not want a stronger EUR
7) On the other side, market got caught badly yesterday so probably bids lying in wait at lower levels by those caught short.
manila tom 09:51:39 GMT - 06/06/2014
hi guys, getting ready..
1st long now 1.3628, add later if seen
3 portions before setting stop
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 09:45:16 GMT - 06/06/2014
yes sharks are interesting.
banked 1/2 on 3659 SHORT at 3629
Stop BE…
this trade had no fans last night…
Caribbean! Rafe... 05:38:49 GMT - 06/06/2014
Look for a level to short. i.e. LT
Perth WTR 05:35:40 GMT - 06/06/2014
Rafe, buy euro now for your 1.47?
Caribbean! Rafe... 05:32:29 GMT - 06/06/2014
I love sharks.
A friend of mine had a bad experience with sharks once.
dc CB 01:48:40 GMT - 06/06/2014
yes, forgot to add jkt abel to the top ...it was to add to his thought.
Mtl JP 01:34:23 GMT - 06/06/2014
dc CB.. check out jkt abel 00:22 post ?
dc CB 01:25:48 GMT - 06/06/2014
no one semed to notice, (posted this earlier from ZH), but besides the Draggii Press the ECB also put out its Forecast, and as you can see from the chart it UPPED Euro to 138 thru 2016.
so trade on the Dragsters BS or Trade on the ECBs forecast.
obviously there are a few sellers now because this is the best price they have had to sell for a while
but I don't think that will interfere with a move up to 90/95
before the risk/reward gets better for the sell side of the market and more of the day trading stops get cleared... taking away some of the demand.
I fail to see how the eurusd is now the "premier" currency to own... looking forward.
kl fs 00:31:40 GMT - 06/06/2014
agree abel, rather wishful thinking to think that NFP will bring it down to low 1.35, i am in the camp that euro will go higher
jkt abel 00:22:10 GMT - 06/06/2014
as Jay mentioned, close above 1.3640 was key reversal day, it was a big one too with long tail, very significant reversal day IMO, would be stupid to sell euro
jkt abel 00:03:06 GMT - 06/06/2014
well after what happened yesterday, i think most reasonable play today is buy dips euro
i think golden chance to reload long with 1.35 handle was yesterday, i dont expect it to be seen again today
how about 1.3610-20 to 1.3740 range today
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 23:57:41 GMT - 06/05/2014
I've had shark for dinner many times.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:49:55 GMT - 06/05/2014
Stops on a key event day are like inviting a shark to dinner. But as a rule, dumb stops can eat your account up even when right.
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 23:43:30 GMT - 06/05/2014
Jay..a good video again..
regarding dum stops from the article.
I could be happy with some dumb, too close stops hit
rather than some longer "smart' stops hit at times..
your 9 points of adaptation trading I agree and is 'scripture' for our market now..
stops and exits…must be good…get what you are given..
on 1 hr now euro hit 55 area from 1 hr tunnel and looks to come back to tunnel at 3613 from 3659 now..
so placing short now at 3659 with stop 3675..if hit possible short higher.
or surf fishing Captiva Is.
gl gt
Will EURUSD 8 day pattern around 1.36 be broken? How much risk on the upside?
bali sja 18:15:59 GMT - 06/05/2014
blah, why make it too hard, with no sweat we are now above 1.3650, above Qindex's 1.3646, just follow the crystal ball, cherioooss... i saw pale faces of usd :) bye now
Cape May JB 18:04:47 GMT - 06/05/2014
So now we wait for the second half of the picture, May NFP tomorrow. Street estimates run from +210K to 220K for the month. I feel the risk is on the upside for this number with many pieces of economic data recently coming in strong. I'm thinking +250K.
So if we get a piece of data that supports the view that the U.S. recovery is gaining steam, the USD should be supported with the ECB taking extreme measures to support its economy. Its hard to see how the EURUSD will not at a minimum slip down to the low 1.35's.
As for the risk, a mediocre jobs number is unlikely in my opinion see EURUSD settle at the end of the week above 1.3650.
GVI Forex18:03:56 GMT - 06/05/2014
So now we wait for the second half of the picture, May NFP tomorrow. Street estimates run from +210K to 220K for the month. I feel the risk is on the upside for this number with many pieces of economic data recently coming in strong. I'm thinking +250K.
So if we get a piece of data that supports the view that the U.S. recovery is gaining steam, the USD should be supported with the ECB taking extreme measures to support its economy. Its hard to see how the EURUSD will not at a minimum slip down to the low 1.35's.
As for the risk, a mediocre jobs number is unlikely in my opinion see EURUSD settle at the end of the week above 1.3650.
NY JM 17:20:47 GMT - 06/05/2014
Dollar is down across-the-board today as risk on (former stocks) and lower bond yields the main focus despite all the fuss about the confounding EUR.
Setting up for an interesting end to the week with NFP followed by a barren economic calendar the following week, This makes tomorrow's close very important.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:19:23 GMT - 06/05/2014
John, surprised or not really surprised as the EURUSD has been confounding forecasts since 2013. With that said it is frustrating as we need a good trend to trade rather than more chop.
Yet it is hard to believe it is up on the day (1.3631) but would need to close above 1.3640 for an outside day key reversal day.
NFP tomorrow and it comes down to where stops are lying as buy stops are closer than sell stops. I guess we watch the 200 day mva as that remains a key indicator.
As I have said many times, I much prefer to trade in anticipation of events than on the event itself. Today is a day that tells you why.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:12:26 GMT - 06/05/2014
As someone just emailed me,
They’re all funding currencies in the race to the bottom
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:12:24 GMT - 06/05/2014
As someone just emailed me,
They’re all funding currencies in the race to the bottom
GVI Forex john 16:01:52 GMT - 06/05/2014
Its hard for me to believe that EURUSD is now back at 1.3616 after what appears to have been serious actions by the ECB today, When a central bank puts on a severe credit squeeze, the reaction in the past has been violent and immediate.
This time the ECB is easing policy in a world where policy elsewhere is easy. Thus Draghi's actions are not having an immediate and irreversible impact. Its like pushing on an open door, not like standing in front of a freight train. It might take a while for the impact of these new policies to seep into the markets.
One key dimension of desired effects presumably was a weaker EUR. That would have to happen via carry trades. Is there any reason why hedge funds will be rushing to borrow EUR to buy something? Liquidity is cheap and ample elsewhere.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:15:50 GMT - 06/05/2014
To sum up it seems we have buyers at 1.3550-80 and sellers at 1.3620-50.
jkt abel 15:14:43 GMT - 06/05/2014
bali sja, forget it, the way it is shaping up, i think low for the month is already set up, today will close above 1.36 again, easy game, time to go to sleep
bali sja 15:11:08 GMT - 06/05/2014
market is always a competition, otherwise how can you make money from each other?
anyway, my take for the rest of today and until NFP is that if 1.3550-1.3580 seen, just buy with closed eyes
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:06:34 GMT - 06/05/2014
This is why we started this thread as diffing opinions is what makes a market. You and others have a free hand to express them here. This is not a competition, we hope both sides can make money.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:33:08 GMT - 06/05/2014
Fibo fans, using 1.3650-1.3503
1.3559 = 38.2%
1.3577 = 50%
1.3594 = 61.8%
london red 13:24:57 GMT - 06/05/2014
daily 21.2
london red 13:22:03 GMT - 06/05/2014
8086 eurgbp. if fails to cap, will be a more meaningful bounce in order.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21:04 GMT - 06/05/2014
Red, which STD Bollinger band are your referring to?
JM, as said before shorting euro no longer interests me below daily bolli, historically the odds are against you on a running basis. a contra trade at my support has it merits but to rejoin trend i would look to 86-99 a res to sell into but i see your 78.
NY JM 13:09:02 GMT - 06/05/2014
red, are you sitting patiently looking for a sell level?
One characteristic of the fall from 1.3996 has been a lack of a meaningful retracement.
I show 1.3578 as a key day level.
london red 13:02:23 GMT - 06/05/2014
agree john, 50/55 during this new hour needs to mark the high for the hour or we risk further profit taking. i think selling 86-99 will make sense if seen today/tomorrow.
HK[email protected]12:56:26 GMT - 06/05/2014
Euro money will flow into some speculative instruments, which will later on collapse, and EZ will enter a very bad recession.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:55:53 GMT - 06/05/2014
EURUSD got a little support from
Draghi says interest rates have reached the lower bounds today, can't exclude technical adjustments
Watch 1,3550 as this replaces 1.3650 as a pivotal level.
Cape May JB 12:51:07 GMT - 06/05/2014
Do yourself a favor. Don't step in front of this move. There is no telling how far the EUR will weaken. This is not a "normal" situation/
GVI Forex john 12:47:51 GMT - 06/05/2014
Bank sources telling us this program should be positive for peripheral Europe
EURUSD continues to fall, as intended
London Chris 12:39:12 GMT - 06/05/2014
Al on any timeframe as far as I am concerned. Top is in for a very long time
Dillon AL 12:31:44 GMT - 06/05/2014
Chris. To answer your question....It depends on your timeframe
london red 12:29:23 GMT - 06/05/2014
JM, we got the rates, plus the promise of further annoucements (which we are presuming is today) so we went a bit lower with no follow thru. now draghi.
London Chris 12:27:43 GMT - 06/05/2014
Are there any euro bulls left on the board?
NY JM 12:18:08 GMT - 06/05/2014
So ECB rate cut was more or less in line with expectations but EURUSD reacted lower. As with any news, reaction is what counts.
Now we wait for Draghi and key here is not only what other measures he presents but whether he indicates, as expected, that the ECB stands ready to act further if needed.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:12:25 GMT - 06/05/2014
Red, agree on the 1.3585-00 area. Below it targets 1.3475. Above it and back to square one.
1.3550-60 and 1.3500 stand in its way.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:56:15 GMT - 06/05/2014
Tests my target at 1.3559-62 as per my videos, low just below it so essentially holding initial test.
GVI Forex11:35:11 GMT - 06/05/2014
6/5/2014 7:25:02 AM
(EU) Preview: ECB Interest Rate Decision expected at 07:45 ET (11:45 GMT)
- Majority of analyst (over 95) expect ECB to cut key rates but there is a disagreement over the degree of the exact cut: (range seen between unchanged to -25bps)
Details: >
- Majority of analysts (57%) expect Main Refi Rate to cut by 15bps to 0.10%. The minority view (35%) see a 10bps cut. Super minority call for unchange rate or steeper 25bps cut
- Majority of analysts (64%) expect Deposit Facility Rate expected to be cut by 10bps to -0.10%. The minority view (24%) see a 15bps cut. Super minority call for unchanged
- Majority of analysts (33%) expect Marginal Lending Facility expected to be cut by 15bps to 0.60%.. The minority view (32% each) see either a 10 or 25bps cut
- June will bring an updated set of ECB staff projections and a better chance for further policy action if indicators signaled a change to the medium term outlook.
Analysis: >- Draghi stated in May that the Council was comfortable to act in June. .Reports circulated that Draghi was also posed to keep rate-cut option open even after a June move.
- ECB has been under market pressure to follow up all of its recent rhetoric with concrete moves as . Recent data has hardened the case for decisive measures. ECB is also expected to unveil a combination of measures aimed to strengthen the growth and inflation outlook ECB options other than conventional interest rates
1) Providing a long-term LTRO, but linking the use of LTRO to a 'funding for lending programme' aimed at supporting credit supply for SMEs
2) Suspending the sterilization of the Securities Market Program ( SMP) bond holdings, increasing EUR cash circulation accordingly (**Note: ECB has failed to fully sterialize this the past 8 weeks)
- The concern over deflation is that people and businesses tend to postpone purchases while hoping for further price declines in the future
3) Reducing reserve requirements and collateral conditions
4) Extending the fixed rate full allotment regime, under which banks can borrow as much as they like against eligible collateral, beyond its current July 2015 termination
date - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:02:14 GMT - 06/05/2014
For FIBO fans
1.3682 = 23.6% of 1.3996-1.3585
1.3742 = 61.8%
1.3562 = 61.8% of 1.3294-1.3996
GVI Forex john 10:30:27 GMT - 06/05/2014
I heard someone say today that one goal of the ECB may be to make the currency a FUNDING currency for carry trades. Presumably negative interest rates could help. This would weaken the EUR.
Also head the head of IFO today presented the "German view". He said that exchange rates were not set properly initially and that as a result the cost of borrowing was too low and southern Europe overspent. In essence he said was what the the southern tier of the Eurozone needs to deflate and all the ECB is doing is extending the pain.
Its a long time ago, but I warned that this was a wrong-headed scheme at the time when it was launched. I stand by that opinion now. I don't know if this will ever be worked out by the normal market mechanisms.
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