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dc CB  18:26:17 GMT - 06/11/2014  
the internals where the action was with Indirect demand tumbling from 49.3% to 36.1%, the lowest since May, while Directs were relatively flat at 19.%, down from 21.6%, as Dealers had to pick up their buying and take down some 44.5% of the auction: the most also since May 2013.

Weak 10 Year Auction Prices With 0.9 bp Tail



GVI Forex john   18:03:07 GMT - 06/11/2014  
10yr 2.637%


HK [email protected]  16:16:54 GMT - 06/11/2014  


If you want to sink a nail into a wood, just bring higher the hammer.

Euro needs a downward momentum, which may be acquired by some price rise first.


GVI Forex john   15:59:31 GMT - 06/11/2014  
The basis of our risk-on / risk-off analysis is evolving , I used to look at the US, DE, FR, CH as a bloc but the economic divergence between the EZ and the rest of the world has changed because the US and UK are growing and the focus of the EZ is internal. Their "prime" credits are weakening vs. the EZ periphery due to ECB policy.

It is ECB policy to weaken the EUR to provide an economic stimulus to the struggling economies.

Any thoughts on how we all must adjust our trading strategies to new realities?


GVI Forex john   15:49:10 GMT - 06/11/2014  

  • Markets have moved into a clear risk-off posture. Note all the red (oil price worries?) late in Europe.
  • Yields in European fixed income markets continue to converge. German yields are down  while yields on the periphery are mixed. This comes as a result of the targeted ECB policy ease last week.
  • U.K. yields are lower  in line with the U.S. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.62%, +2bp as equities fall.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).




GVI Forex john   12:19:28 GMT - 06/11/2014  
Something to start to think about is the Fed policy decision in one week's time. The bias of sentiment of the markets is in the direction of a less dovish Fed tone. Already there was chatter yesterday the Fed could speed of the pace of its "taper" and exit over the next three meetings by even cuts of $15bln

fwiw the July 2015 Fed Funds futures imply a 92% odds of a 25bp rate hike by that time (almost exactly one year from now). Following the last FOMC meeting, the odds were less than 50-50. Increasing odds of a Fed tightening is a USD positive especially when ECB policy is headed in the opposite direction for the next couple of years.


GVI Forex john   08:59:13 GMT - 06/11/2014  

  • Markets continue to have a mild, but mixed risk on posture early in Europe.
  • Yields in European fixed income markets continue to converge. German yields are up while yields on the periphery are mixed. This comes as a result of the targeted ECB policy ease last week.
  • U.K. yields are higher in line with The U.S. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.66%, +2bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are mostly lower. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).







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