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dc CB  02:10:27 GMT - 06/17/2014  

it jsut stopped right in front of me. I woz doin' the speed limit 70MPH...and NO I wazn't dozn' off.

looked like the engine just died!!!!

dc CB  01:43:04 GMT - 06/17/2014  
We’re in an event driven market the outcome and their effect on markets are unknown.

Clearly the Fed Meeting Wednesday is a more tempered event compared to Ukraine and naturally Iraq. But any of these can upset the bulls apple cart especially given current lofty equity market levels.

One perhaps not too surprising, at least to cynics, is the release by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) and as reported by the FT various central banks and sovereign funds have invested nearly $26 trillion in equity markets. This has been done due to low yields and includes China, Swiss and Danish central banks. Thomas Jordan, SNB’s chairman, as saying: “We are now invested in large, mid- and small-cap stocks in developed markets worldwide.”

I guess a bear market would be fought by fierce money printing don’t you think?


Mtl JP  23:46:04 GMT - 06/16/2014  
is that 275 +/- 1,2..5 ?

dc CB  22:55:00 GMT - 06/16/2014  

Paris ib  21:14:45 GMT - 06/16/2014  
CB "according to the FT, Federal Reserve officials have discussed imposing exit fees on bond funds".... I take it that the FT is trying to provoke a panic rush to the exits in the bond market?

What gives with these weirdo publications?

dc CB  21:12:26 GMT - 06/16/2014  
not that any of that matters when there's 0% and 'being in Bonds" risks being Cyprused

GM Stock

dc CB  21:09:12 GMT - 06/16/2014  
The mission almost certainly would be small: one U.S. official said it could be up to 100 special forces soldiers. It also could be authorized only as an advising and training mission — meaning the soldiers would work closely with Iraqi forces that are fighting the insurgency but not officially be considered as combat troops.

Obama considers special forces to help in Iraq

dc CB  21:07:32 GMT - 06/16/2014  

And the bottom line, and why this entire bailout farce is now beyond simply criminal and purely ridiculous: as of this moment, GM has recalled more than double the number of cars it sold in all of 2013, or, another way of putting it, more than the total number of cars it sold in 2013 AND 2012 combined.

Stunning Fact Of The Day: In 2014 GM Has Recalled More Cars Than It Sold In 2013 And 2012

dc CB  20:40:20 GMT - 06/16/2014  
so if you read the analysis, you would have read this:

So what is the obvious desired outcome, at least by the Fed? Why a wholesale panic withdrawal from bond funds now, while the gates are still open, and since those trillions in bond funds have to be allocated somewhere, where will they go but... stock funds.

In other words, now that the Fed is pulling away from injecting tens of billions of liquidity into the market every month, it is hoping the investing population will pick up the torch. And since it has failed to incite the mass reallocation of funds from bonds to stocks, the Fed is willing to use every trick in the book to achieve its goal.

GVI Forex john   20:08:52 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Gimme a break! Shouldn't institutional Bond traders also have "Exit Fees"???

Just another way to screw the least sophisticated investors, as if bond funds were not bad enough as a concept.

dc CB  20:02:58 GMT - 06/16/2014  
according to the FT, "Federal Reserve officials have discussed imposing exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining regulators’ concern about the vulnerability of the $10tn corporate bond market."

FT justifies this latest unprecedented pseudo-capital control by sayng that "officials are concerned that bond-fund investors, as with bank depositors, can withdraw their money on demand even though the assets held by their funds are long-term debt and can be hard to sell in a crisis. The Fed discussions have taken place at a senior level but have not yet developed into formal policy, according to people familiar with the matter."

Fed Prepares For Bond-Fund Runs, Looking At Imposing "Exit Fee" Gates

dc CB  18:35:53 GMT - 06/16/2014  
just as the world's bond traders think they have the central banks understood, the Bank of England drops a tape-bomb...

Just when you thought you knew your uber-dovish central bank, this happens:
BoE Governor Carney noted that borrowing costs may rise sooner than economists expected...
and Deputy Governor Bean added...

"An increase in interest rates will be a symbolic step, because it will be an indication that we are on the road back to normality,"
"I would welcome us getting on to the path of normalization, as a demonstration that the economy is healing,"

Which produced this... in 1Y Gilts...

(The Hank Paulson "kill the shorts" double reverse Lutz...Eton Style)

Treasury Bulls Beware: A Cautionary Tale From Punk'd British Bond Traders

dc CB  17:59:50 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Evidence of an increase in equity-buying by central banks and other public-sector investors has emerged from a survey of publicly owned or managed investments compiled by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), a global research and advisory group.

The OMFIF research publication, Global Public Investor (GPI) 2014, launched on June 17, is the first comprehensive survey of $29.1 trillion worth of investments held by 400 public-sector institutions in 162 countries. The report focuses on investments by 157 central banks, 156 public pension funds and 87 sovereign funds.

Central banks becoming major investors in stock markets

Paris ib  16:23:20 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Jay - the point is that there is buying in U.S. bonds but it is not coming from foreign investors so there are no implications for the USD.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:21:54 GMT - 06/16/2014  
ib, too much time debating this but US bond yields are closer to 2.50% than 3.00%, confounding to just about everyone

As for the dollar, as I said it is a never ending race to the bottom and currently ECB has EURUSD in the lead until charts tell you otherwise but there seems to be that invisible hand once again showing its ugly face.

Otherwise, market bides its time to the FOMC meeting with an eye on Iraq and oil.

Paris ib  16:15:57 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Jay there is no net demand for U.S. bonds from foreign buyers.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:02:23 GMT - 06/16/2014  
ib, yet US bonds are still in demand so there is not a flight from the dollar but there is diversification. There is a big difference.

HK [email protected]  16:02:00 GMT - 06/16/2014  

The German people demand to see their gold!!!

Bring back home our gold NOW!!!

Where is our gold???

UNCLE SAM: IN GOD WE TRUST, you may have USD!!!

Paris ib  15:41:14 GMT - 06/16/2014  
From within the United States I think it must be hard to understand just how enormous the shift has thinking has been. The United States and its institutions are simply not trusted like they used to be. Too many lies have been exposed. Too many fraudulent practices and way too much dubious war mongering. I think it's hard to come back from that and I don't think the United States is even trying.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:34:11 GMT - 06/16/2014  
ib, I have no emotional attachment to the USD and will trade whatever side is most vulnerable. Trade and current account deficits are nothing new. I think a wild card going forwards is if the US can get its energy act together and become self sufficient but that is for another discussion. What you didn't mention is global reserve diversification and that is not going away and works against the USD..

Paris ib  15:28:24 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Jay the U.S. has the following problems:
1) a trade deficit
By definition that means more imports selling dollars than exporters buying dollars
2) a current account deficit
By definition more income leaving the country than income from abroad coming in
3) an already enormous dependence on foreign capital - just look at the 6 trillion foreigners already own in U.S. Treasuries.

The only way for the USD to go up is for a massive influx of new capital to come into the country. It's not like you are going to suddenly become these massive export earners.

I see no reason for a new massive influx of capital and some possibility of repatriation. That makes the USD uniquely vulnerable IMVHO.

Short term all you have on your side is speculators and that is not enough.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:21:46 GMT - 06/16/2014  
ib, every currency has problems and why the
current fx market has been referred a race to the bottom, currencies taking turns at the bottom of the food chain.

RF, no clue where the name banksters comes from but it is the reserve managers who hold the chips. Banks are no long risk takers.

Paris ib  15:15:28 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Jay the USD has long term underlying problems. At this point anything short of a serious move to the hawkish side of policy by the FED is unlikely to change that. Draghi did his bit. The BoJ have done more than their bit. But the FED is still a long way from hiking. Lagarde has just been making that point. If anything the IMF's softish forecasts for U.S. growth this year have added to the soft tone of the USD.

HK [email protected]  15:15:21 GMT - 06/16/2014  

Sometimes, banksters are fined heavily to the amount, which may be a fraction of what they have ill-gotten.

london red  15:15:13 GMT - 06/16/2014  
i think they have to put out more hawkish rhetoric because of inflation creeping up but downgrade growth expectations due to hit and miss data. thats what i am hearing.

HK [email protected]  15:10:59 GMT - 06/16/2014  

You better read more about it in ZeroHedge.

Mostly market manipulators, criminal friends of the FED(no names please)

NY JM  15:07:35 GMT - 06/16/2014  
RF, can you define Banksters

HK [email protected]  15:06:21 GMT - 06/16/2014  

Forget about fundamentals or Tech.

Against all odds, the Banksters are long Euro, where Specs, are short to the teeth.

Buyers are not avoiding USD because of possible US involvment in the gulf. Even gold drops.
It is who is now at what side of the Mkt.

Specs are booked as usual with the Banksters for a squeeze.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:44:31 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Red, I was observing more than just the EURUSD. Dollar is generally soft although logic says it should be supported pre-FOMC as many are looking for a less dovish statement. With that said EUEUSD is still below 1.3575-80 resistance but trapped as long as 1.3550+.

london red  14:20:34 GMT - 06/16/2014  
Jay, often on a monday or tuesday people ask the same question. some retracement is called for at the start of the week, particularly with no real data until mid week. its v rare not to partly fill in prev wk range. so no harm done yet. 3569 first key level for me then the 200 hour, above there can stop run to fig/3610. downside in play while below 13670. erurgbp 8006 then possibly 8065 but 8035 could halt.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:14:57 GMT - 06/16/2014  
For whatever reason (maybe concern over US getting sucked back into Iraq?), market is not buying USD. Anyone see it different?

US stocks reversed earlier losses, now +

London Misha  14:14:04 GMT - 06/16/2014  
EURUSD - Indecisive Long Legged Spinning Top & nearing NFP low, Double Top target & key 50% Fib at 1.3489 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart as continues to bounce up off Long MA support.
GBPUSD - 3rd White Soldier on Daily Chart. New 2014 high today. Nearing 2009 high resistance at 1.7042.
USDCHF - Continues to follow Middle Tine of recent Bullish AP on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - New 2014 low & 6th Black Crow on Daily Chart. Middle Tine of Nov13-Mar14 AP & 2011-2013 SP now becomes resistance.
AUDUSD - Bearish Harami as nears 2014 high on Daily Chart!
USDINR - 3rd White Soldier & market move son up from break of 59.37-59.43 Fib band (now support) on Daily Chart. Today tests
big 50% Fib resistance at 60.09!
USDZAR - Bearish Gravestone Doji on Daily Chart. Still forming either a Double Top or a Halfway Hesitation!
USDBRL - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart!

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