maybe I am not as perceptive of that tool as I should be, it's why I asked
Tomorrow starts a new Corp reporting season. Alcoa kicks it off. It could set the tone.
Stocks seem to have priced in a recovering economy so, next, players will probably want to see S&P showing 5% ++ profits to justify the valuations. Else we may see interest rates go down some more. With all that implies on FX.
nw kw 14:17:59 GMT - 07/07/2014
immigration changes was on bloom for up beat gobs report/
CAD Business Outlook Future Sales is next market monitoring this one to see if usa on good ground for tsx is lagging for now
Livingston nh 14:07:32 GMT - 07/07/2014
The historic level of slack is not much different than today - in fact it may be tighter now in most areas -- if you remove the kids (16 to 20) from the pool (unskilled low wage) the unemployment rate is around 5.2% -- a couple of months ago I posted the unemployment, inflation and interest rates for 20 yrs ago when the Fed was ready to HIKE // the economy is not in crisis and the unemployment rate is normal -- only the FED is out of step and by a lot -- they can't stay like this for even an additional 6 months (G. Wm. Miller syndrome)
GVI Forex john 13:48:30 GMT - 07/07/2014
Plenty of slack in the U.S. labor force will prevent a spike in wages anytime in the foreseeable future, imho.
nw kw 13:43:14 GMT - 07/07/2014
bnn. wages growth for us going spike up and force fed and flat yield/long ftse short s&p
london red 13:30:48 GMT - 07/07/2014
market was late to pick up on uk theme and will hold the ball too long but isnt that always the case.
mpc has prepared the market for early but then slow increases, so you can bet that if we see a nov hike, then we get nothing pre election may 2015 unless we get a real pick up in inflation/wages growth, but even them the mpc is going to want to give any move a few months to gauge its effect, so certainly will make sense to fade anything around the hike.
Dillon AL 13:10:36 GMT - 07/07/2014
Just shows how markets can get ahead of themselves and how CBs can get behind the curve. When the UK does finally hike then one wants to apply sell the fact rule to the trade
GVI Forex john 12:09:22 GMT - 07/07/2014
JP- you make your own trading decisions. Its your money at risk. We just try to provide some analysis on likely general market direction for top trading currencies. Hope it helps.
Mtl JP 11:48:32 GMT - 07/07/2014
so .. what do we sell and what do we buy
and when ?
GVI Forex john 11:06:46 GMT - 07/07/2014
This chart is busier than I would have preferred but I like the comparisons between the GBP, USD, JPY then EUR in that order.
london red 11:02:59 GMT - 07/07/2014
still early days but eurgbp set to make a bullish outside day, this will give euro some legs or certainly make downside progress limited. we may need to see 13635-75 before lower again. eurgbp has been a one way bet and quite a crowded one but probably too early for it to reverse entirely, so 7950-75 is possible, more unlikely unless data surprises in uk or europe this week.
london red 10:58:17 GMT - 07/07/2014
cable good support 17045-70 would be nice to see it. otherwise 200 hour just under 1.71 may support.
GVI Forex john 10:44:39 GMT - 07/07/2014
Interesting chart. Very important to see how the two year is trading relative to the official Central Bank benchmark rate. In Australia, clearly the markets are concerned about the economy and this is AUD negative
By contrast in Canada the two year is above the BOC benchmark rate and moving higher. This suggests the markets are setting up for eventual rate hikes and this is CAD positive.
The major developing trend is the start of a move in the direction of monetary policy "normalization" in selected economies
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