hard to be really confident as the crosses are going to get beaten about tomorrow due to some further eur/xxx adjustments.
london red 13:55:06 GMT - 08/27/2014
JP, bar pullbacks, which we've just had abv 80, you cant see it any other way. looking at growth, the uk beats eurozone hands down. even inflation, while subdued in the uk, is at much higher levels than in the eurozone, which could print negative in the coming months. Poland already has deflation and the fruit and veg that cant be sold to russia is going to go across the other borders in euroland, driving food lower still. so subzero inflation is a risk. germany is up tomorrow, no risk there but still likely v low.
Mtl JP 13:45:09 GMT - 08/27/2014
red 12:55 - do u think - like I do - that the euro will out-sink the gbp for some time still ?
Mtl JP 13:36:39 GMT - 08/27/2014
I have stopped counting the number of times Draghi has variously predicted that
“Econ to recover very gradually in course of next year" or “Euro-area economic activity should stabilize and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace”
- probably more profitable to trade GV's Pivots than some "Chatter ECB will cut rates"
GVI Forex john 13:08:56 GMT - 08/27/2014
Chatter ECB will cut rates 10bp across the board next Thursday. I don't see what that would accomplish beyond its psychological impact?
london red 12:55:01 GMT - 08/27/2014
nh some interesting points. re aussie, watching 50/55 day for a sign of higher prices, looking to sell c. 94 cents for move to 9280/9230. theres a risk to 9520 out there before lower so likely to use option strat.
bunds are clearly running on draghi fuel and as you suggest, may be getting ahead of themselves if he doesnt come to the table next week. US 10 year futures look like they have another 20-30 points max before making another mini reversal. that would put them at my (or JP's!) red line once more.
nw kw 12:44:12 GMT - 08/27/2014
I see tks
london red 12:26:16 GMT - 08/27/2014
i have 05, the 10 day at 13, 200 hour at 18, 30 (23.6 of 148/172), 42 200 month. if thru 50 youll get a lot of momentum short covering, unhampered probably up to 75/80 where folk will start selling ahead of a really big pack of res from 90 to the fig.
Livingston nh 12:19:23 GMT - 08/27/2014
1. Yields in EU continue to confound -- what is the expected purpose of ECB QE?? Lower rates ?? LTRO as a cure for what -- the rates would exceed anything the bank could earn on the borrowed funds?? // maybe EUR rally after ECB measures fail to appear or fall short of rational expectation // SNB may be getting nervous below EUR/CHF 50
2. Sterling "strength" has been blamed by UK companies for performance problems (e.g., WPP) - EUR/GBP keeps pressure on BoE w/ only a narrow window for hikes // if market pushes rate hike expectations out beyond May that would cure "strength" pretty quick
3. Last but not least AUD/USD back up near wkly 21/55 MAs - 94.55 is 89 ema so between here and there might be a long term sell point
nw kw 11:50:26 GMT - 08/27/2014
nw kw 11:49:13 GMT - 08/27/2014
red- wares ferst stall g/b r
nw kw 11:44:01 GMT - 08/27/2014
cot shod be adding longs now must have momentum wee see tks e/g helping he he
london red 11:38:29 GMT - 08/27/2014
gbp/jpy not following but cable 16605/10 historical important. if 200 hour cannot cap then they move towards 16690/167. well worth a short or 1/2 week put there.
nw kw 11:32:49 GMT - 08/27/2014
red -you up
nw kw 11:23:18 GMT - 08/27/2014
nw kw 11:22:31 GMT - 08/27/2014
still adding do you see a retrace
nw kw 11:20:38 GMT - 08/27/2014
175. gives it room for 182
nw kw 11:19:07 GMT - 08/27/2014
nw kw 11:18:22 GMT - 08/27/2014
do have up swill gbp/jpy in for a spike
sd sf 10:31:49 GMT - 08/27/2014
GBP - just seeing selling to t/p @82-83
bots just trading the indicators.
sd sf 23:52:17 GMT - 08/26/2014
have not had much to say really that would interest anyone.
This morning however 3 different models came in to buy @41-42 in GBP and it was still quite offered until another model kicked in and bght @40.5 - that seemed to affirm o/sold and stabilize it at the 45-46-47 levels.
eurusd less models but same thing at 67/67.7 area.
We are basically in a news driven market - with condensed ranges in the mean time.
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