There is a press report that "NEW ECB ACTION NEXT WEEK UNLIKELY, BUT OUTCOME MUCH DEPENDS ON AUGUST INFLATION DATA" on Friday, according to unnamed ECB sources.
Sounds to me like the ECB is trying to tamp down expectations? EURUSD higher.
This headline also raises the question of what level of inflation on Friday would be a trigger.
london red 14:35:38 GMT - 08/27/2014
imo zero chance of starting qe next week. as for rate cuts,, it wont do anything but raise yields and euro as they will need more wati and see time, which puts qe back even further. so thats a non starter.
they can however use the meeting to entertain the idea of qe and provide more information, as a precursor for announcing concrete plans next time. which would be enough for the market to run further as far as bunds and euro are concerned.
fridays inflation will be important as i dont believe they will want to wait for a negative print before approaching with qe to the market. if germany meets or beats tomorrow, then it probably holds up cpi enough and they are probably out of the woods for a couple of months, but if not and we get a 0.1/0.2 on friday then youd suggest a strong possibilty of qe discussion in a more formal way. if 0.3 then it puts a floor in since the bar is so low and JP gets his gap done by the end of friday trade. anymore than that would require a 0.4.
Mtl JP 14:43:50 GMT - 08/27/2014
with a little increase in volume ... and presto: 3221 or 3244
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:47:49 GMT - 08/27/2014
The ECB plan was to wait for the TLTRO (first settlement is Sept 18) before considering additional measures. Market got QE in its head for this meeting so its seems by the price action.
In any case, 1.32 just printed for 3rd day in a row.
My warning about Wednesday often being a correction day may be playing out (see my Trade of the Day).
Mtl JP 14:54:44 GMT - 08/27/2014
Res 3 1.3256
Res 2 1.3235
Res 1 1.3206
Sup 1 1.3156
Sup 2 1.3135
Sup 3 1.3106
Res 2 = practical gap close
would settle the issue in my book
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:21:18 GMT - 08/27/2014
JP, one characteristic of the EURUSD downtrend is that it never corrects as far as you would expect.
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