User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex Forum     ← Back to Forums

Sort Order: Latest Post on Top - Latest Post Last            Post Reply

GVI Forex john   09:29:54 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Markets have moved  into a MIXED RISK posture. Today has seen generally soft manufacturing PMI data. Additional reports are due later from the U.S.  The EURUSD is trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.945%,  -0.4% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.427% -1.3 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.502%, -0.4bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

GVI Forex john   12:27:20 GMT - 10/01/2014  
10-yr 2.452%

Stock futures are weaker and giving bond prices a bid.

GVI Forex john   14:48:39 GMT - 10/01/2014  
big move higher in bond prices (yields tumbling)

10-yr 2.425% -8.1bp
on 162 point fall in DJIA
S&P -15 points

I had thought we were headed for 2.60%.This time there is no political dimension to this price move..

GVI Forex john   14:50:22 GMT - 10/01/2014  
10-yr bund 0.908% -4.1 bp.

london red  14:59:52 GMT - 10/01/2014  
JP, if you have a mo, pull up this chart. dec 10yr. trendline thru august 13 and 22nd lows. it the new (old) red line. same one as for the sept contract that worked so well. think the chart can be very helpful, puts into perspective where we have been and where we are now.

GVI Forex john   15:04:43 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Im trying to figure out if stocks are falling on the data or on fears of monetary policy "normalization" in the U.S. and U.K.?

If its policy "normalization" bond yields should not be falling??

Is this USD positive or negative???

PAR 15:12:19 GMT - 10/01/2014  
It is still early in NY ,wait for usual afternoon buying to come in with a force .

london red  15:12:25 GMT - 10/01/2014  
when yields fall generally the dollar softens. often there is a delay.

PAR 15:15:25 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Yields fall ,stock markets recover , the party goes on , Draghi and Yellen are happy .

Livingston nh  15:20:43 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Treasury yields are being influenced by EU rates notably bunds - USD still has relative yield advantage (risk is flatter curve when Fed moves s/t)

Good news is bad news again

GVI Forex john   15:32:55 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Markets have moved from an early  MIXED RISK posture to a RISK-OFF positioning. I am seeing prime bond yields falling as equities sell-off  As of the European close U.S. shares are trying to stabilize. The EURUSD has been trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are sharply lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.906%,  -4.3% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.368% -5.9 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.429%, -7.7bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

PAR 15:36:13 GMT - 10/01/2014  
VIX down . Ebola risk up .

Mtl JP  17:12:09 GMT - 10/01/2014  
10-yr yield down to 2.41%

Mtl JP  17:33:43 GMT - 10/01/2014  
SnP and DJIA down only 1.3% or so now
still a hugely long way from a Babson Break

Paris ib  17:42:14 GMT - 10/01/2014  
JP... is that a dare?

london red  17:43:46 GMT - 10/01/2014  
1921 nxt for s&p. trendline rising. id say today if not for ecb and nfp week. but 1955 should cap into ecb and poss into nfp on a close below today.

Mtl JP  17:44:21 GMT - 10/01/2014  
stocks still only 50% of Babson Break

Mtl JP  17:50:08 GMT - 10/01/2014  
ib 17:42 - I am thinking the levered long accounts be producing sweat bullets . not good moments for folks in debt, be they long stox or short bond

Paris ib  17:51:41 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Indeed JP. And just watch the margin calls on all the carry trades. The trend is your friend..... until it's not.

GVI Forex john   18:12:34 GMT - 10/01/2014  
10-yr 2.414% -9bp
S&P --24

EURUSD directionless.

GVI Forex john   20:10:23 GMT - 10/01/2014  
10-yr going out a 2.391%

Mtl JP  20:25:08 GMT - 10/01/2014  
john 20:10 r u awed ?

GVI Forex john   20:28:47 GMT - 10/01/2014  
In a word I am "dumbfounded".

london red  20:30:50 GMT - 10/01/2014  
i read today that the data caught a lot of people on the wrong side position wise. i mentioned earlier in the week the way the 10yr was set up so i can accept that.
but i have been looking through some notes that came over the wires today and one looks at usdjpy. q4 10213 low to high was 9 figures. q3 2014 low to high was, yep you guessed it 9 figures. on both occasions a higher high was made right at the start of the quarter. what followed then for q4 2013 was a 50% decline before the rally recommenced. back then the 20 day supported on a closing basis, this time the 10 day ma has been sufficient. the fall in q1 2014 taught us that the rallies were fierce, so selling rallies and covering the dips was the order of the day. following downside breakouts usually ended up with losses unless stops were v generous. after the initial move below the 20 day ma, the market rallied almost back to the q4 high but lost nearly 3 figures in two days.

Livingston nh  20:41:45 GMT - 10/01/2014  
Today was a Will Rogers market in treasurys - less concern about return on money than return of money // whole lotta squeezin' goin' on but Friday should tell the tale

USD/JPY was smitten by Hong Kong antics as China expressed concern about yen depreciation and "somebody" (official or analyst??) suggested that the yen would depreciate more slowly above 110 -- Al Jolson says "you ain't seen nothin' yet"

And STOX - the SPX 200 dma is ~ August lo (we broke the 100 dma today so a simple test of Aug lo puts SPX under 200 dma (unvisited level in many months) and anything below will be the first correction to break a prior correction low this year -- and the TAPER is complete (a mere coincidence I'm sure) - Following Rogers and Jolson we will have Yellen performing her composition NOISE

Mtl JP  20:45:29 GMT - 10/01/2014  
usdyen longish timeframe t-line
some current day-chart studies suggest a pause which would match the t-line as temporary resistance

london red  21:01:54 GMT - 10/01/2014  
i have looked at the yearly chart and have a similar outcome, plus a 121 target on any break abv that particular trendline. given the move since summer, we can call this first attempt a false break, so the second from whatever the low will be, thru 109/109.50 is probably the real one.
short term i have a trendline at 108.83. if that doesnt hold on an hourly basis i suspect tomorrow morning there will be a lot more action than the uk construction i planned for.

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex