Markets have moved into a MIXED RISK posture. Today has seen
generally soft manufacturing PMI data. Additional reports are due later
from the U.S. The
EURUSD is trading lower on the day.
Yields
in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are lower. The
10-yr
bund is 0.945%, -0.4% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.427% -1.3 bp. BOE Gov
Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015
rate hike.
U.S.10-yr yield is 2.502%, -0.4bp.The Psychological
focus remains on 2.50%.
Far East equities were mixed. Hong Kong was closed for a
holiday. Bourses in
Europe are mixed. U.S. shares futures are lower..
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
GVI Forex john 12:27:20 GMT - 10/01/2014
10-yr 2.452%
Stock futures are weaker and giving bond prices a bid.
GVI Forex john 14:48:39 GMT - 10/01/2014
big move higher in bond prices (yields tumbling)
10-yr 2.425% -8.1bp
on 162 point fall in DJIA
S&P -15 points
I had thought we were headed for 2.60%.This time there is no political dimension to this price move..
GVI Forex john 14:50:22 GMT - 10/01/2014
10-yr bund 0.908% -4.1 bp.
london red 14:59:52 GMT - 10/01/2014
JP, if you have a mo, pull up this chart. dec 10yr. trendline thru august 13 and 22nd lows. it the new (old) red line. same one as for the sept contract that worked so well. think the chart can be very helpful, puts into perspective where we have been and where we are now.
GVI Forex john 15:04:43 GMT - 10/01/2014
Im trying to figure out if stocks are falling on the data or on fears of monetary policy "normalization" in the U.S. and U.K.?
If its policy "normalization" bond yields should not be falling??
Is this USD positive or negative???
PAR15:12:19 GMT - 10/01/2014
It is still early in NY ,wait for usual afternoon buying to come in with a force .
london red 15:12:25 GMT - 10/01/2014
when yields fall generally the dollar softens. often there is a delay.
PAR15:15:25 GMT - 10/01/2014
Yields fall ,stock markets recover , the party goes on , Draghi and Yellen are happy .
Livingston nh 15:20:43 GMT - 10/01/2014
Treasury yields are being influenced by EU rates notably bunds - USD still has relative yield advantage (risk is flatter curve when Fed moves s/t)
Good news is bad news again
GVI Forex john 15:32:55 GMT - 10/01/2014
Markets
have moved from an early MIXED RISK posture to a RISK-OFF
positioning. I am seeing prime bond yields falling as equities
sell-off As of the European close U.S. shares are trying to
stabilize. The
EURUSD has been trading lower on the day.
Yields
in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are sharply lower. The
10-yr
bund is 0.906%, -4.3% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.368% -5.9 bp. BOE Gov
Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015
rate hike.
U.S.10-yr yield is 2.429%, -7.7bp.The Psychological
focus remains on 2.50%.
Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a
holiday. Bourses in
Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
PAR15:36:13 GMT - 10/01/2014
VIX down . Ebola risk up .
Mtl JP 17:12:09 GMT - 10/01/2014
10-yr yield down to 2.41%
Mtl JP 17:33:43 GMT - 10/01/2014
SnP and DJIA down only 1.3% or so now
still a hugely long way from a Babson Break
Paris ib 17:42:14 GMT - 10/01/2014
JP... is that a dare?
london red 17:43:46 GMT - 10/01/2014
1921 nxt for s&p. trendline rising. id say today if not for ecb and nfp week. but 1955 should cap into ecb and poss into nfp on a close below today.
Mtl JP 17:44:21 GMT - 10/01/2014
stocks still only 50% of Babson Break
Mtl JP 17:50:08 GMT - 10/01/2014
ib 17:42 - I am thinking the levered long accounts be producing sweat bullets . not good moments for folks in debt, be they long stox or short bond
Paris ib 17:51:41 GMT - 10/01/2014
Indeed JP. And just watch the margin calls on all the carry trades. The trend is your friend..... until it's not.
GVI Forex john 18:12:34 GMT - 10/01/2014
10-yr 2.414% -9bp
DJIA-230
S&P --24
EURUSD directionless.
GVI Forex john 20:10:23 GMT - 10/01/2014
10-yr going out a 2.391%
Mtl JP 20:25:08 GMT - 10/01/2014
john 20:10 r u awed ?
GVI Forex john 20:28:47 GMT - 10/01/2014
In a word I am "dumbfounded".
london red 20:30:50 GMT - 10/01/2014
i read today that the data caught a lot of people on the wrong side position wise. i mentioned earlier in the week the way the 10yr was set up so i can accept that.
but i have been looking through some notes that came over the wires today and one looks at usdjpy. q4 10213 low to high was 9 figures. q3 2014 low to high was, yep you guessed it 9 figures. on both occasions a higher high was made right at the start of the quarter. what followed then for q4 2013 was a 50% decline before the rally recommenced. back then the 20 day supported on a closing basis, this time the 10 day ma has been sufficient. the fall in q1 2014 taught us that the rallies were fierce, so selling rallies and covering the dips was the order of the day. following downside breakouts usually ended up with losses unless stops were v generous. after the initial move below the 20 day ma, the market rallied almost back to the q4 high but lost nearly 3 figures in two days.
Livingston nh 20:41:45 GMT - 10/01/2014
Today was a Will Rogers market in treasurys - less concern about return on money than return of money // whole lotta squeezin' goin' on but Friday should tell the tale
USD/JPY was smitten by Hong Kong antics as China expressed concern about yen depreciation and "somebody" (official or analyst??) suggested that the yen would depreciate more slowly above 110 -- Al Jolson says "you ain't seen nothin' yet"
And STOX - the SPX 200 dma is ~ August lo (we broke the 100 dma today so a simple test of Aug lo puts SPX under 200 dma (unvisited level in many months) and anything below will be the first correction to break a prior correction low this year -- and the TAPER is complete (a mere coincidence I'm sure) - Following Rogers and Jolson we will have Yellen performing her composition NOISE
Mtl JP 20:45:29 GMT - 10/01/2014
usdyen longish timeframe t-line
some current day-chart studies suggest a pause which would match the t-line as temporary resistance
london red 21:01:54 GMT - 10/01/2014
i have looked at the yearly chart and have a similar outcome, plus a 121 target on any break abv that particular trendline. given the move since summer, we can call this first attempt a false break, so the second from whatever the low will be, thru 109/109.50 is probably the real one.
short term i have a trendline at 108.83. if that doesnt hold on an hourly basis i suspect tomorrow morning there will be a lot more action than the uk construction i planned for.
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