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GVI Forex john   21:16:09 GMT - 10/16/2014  


GVI Forex john   16:14:44 GMT - 10/16/2014  

16:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
As of the European close, markets were moving into a MIXED RISK OFF posture as traders waited to see if equities were in the process of finding a bottom. Most are cautious.  Far East equities closed lower today.  Bourses in Europe ended mostly weaker. U.S. shares are now mixed, but confidence remains shaky.

In overseas activity, trade in the U.S. 10-yr remains volatile, but most of the decline in yields since early Wednesday erased. 10-yr yields in the bund and gilts have rebounded as well.. The sharp spike higher in Greek yields this week has not gotten much play, but has been worth watching.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex 21:29:44 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Note (below) 10-yr closed @ 2.144% vs. 2.184% early om Wednesday. LOD yield on the day reportedly was 1.85%.

london red  20:54:44 GMT - 10/15/2014  
every qe ended with stock fall. so far the current fall has been minor. only uk is going to grow faster than US this year but gbp is hampered by brexit as well as a bigger deflation drag (thanks to euroland) than US will experience, hence dollar will be the place to be out of default (rates dont need to rise for dollar to rally if elsewhere deflation is worry). once the rate raise is priced out of 2015, dollar becomes king again as deflation is going to hit other regions much harder.

GVI Forex john   20:25:37 GMT - 10/15/2014  

The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex john   16:05:00 GMT - 10/15/2014  
As I prepared the report below, it looks like we moved into a second wave of the sell-off. Margin calls are always a major factor on days like today. Also some bottom-pickers often step forward too early.

It seems you never get through a violent day like today without "collateral damage" to some players.

GVI Forex john   15:57:42 GMT - 10/15/2014  

15:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved into a RISK-OFF posture following a sharp sell-off following the break-up of a merger deal and a trio of weaker than expected U.S. data releases. Equity markets fell into a an illiquid black hole. Far East equities closed mostly higher.  Bourses in Europe ended down. U.S. shares are lower.

The run out of stocks saw an avalanche of cash run into fixed income markets which saw the yield in the 10-yr note fall to as low as1.85% before bouncing back to 2.00%. U.K. and  German 10-yr yields are down sharply as well. Peripheral bond yields are up. Greek yields are up sharply on political issues.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

Mtl JP  15:11:06 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Jay Meisler 14:59 sooo many questions... and then "to stimulate the economy so this leaves it up to the ECB" zingger

Printing money and trying to force-feed it into the economy - i.e people to take on new debt - as a solution that will make everyone rich is a delusion that has been discredited over n over

No-one seems to be addressing the problem (threat od financial and banking instability) of too much bad debt on financial institutions' books beyond offering legalizing accounting hokus pokus of no mark-to-market, bad bank parking holes, or outright CB "purchases" of the crap and letting simply expire out of sight and out of mind.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:59:29 GMT - 10/15/2014  
So does that push out the time when the dollar starts to rise on rate hike expectations?

Does this give the EURUSD a reprieve?

Does this throw the ball back to the ECB to fight deflation?

Germany won't bust its budget to stimulate the economy so this leaves it up to the ECB.

US mid-terms should see Republican gains so there will be no increase in spending here as well.

When the dust settles this should support stocks but from what level?

GVI Forex john   14:51:47 GMT - 10/15/2014  
I see. That is the first month for where+25bp is fully priced.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:42:51 GMT - 10/15/2014  
on CNBC, FF futures pointing to first rate hike Feb 2016

GVI Forex john   14:39:40 GMT - 10/15/2014  
July 2015 Fed Funds futures now show less than zero percent odds for a rate hike by that time. Fed Fund futures are notoriously bad forecasts, but they are a reliable indicator of current sentiment. Unlike other "forecasts" you can trade at their levels!

dc CB  14:04:52 GMT - 10/15/2014  
shorts taken out and shot

ZF 5Y futures

Mtl JP  14:03:29 GMT - 10/15/2014  
JM 14:00 / you either had to be quick as a a teenager OR had to have a waiting FOK order. My order did NOT get filled in case u r wondering
see chart

GVI Forex john   14:03:01 GMT - 10/15/2014  
2.028% (LOD 1.85%)

NY JM  14:00:54 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Panic/stop city led by US 10-yr plunge briefly below 2.00%.

EURUSD high 1.2887
USDJPY low 105.19
GBPUSD high 1.6068
AUDUSD high .8860

Now pivotal big figs 1.28, 1.60 and 2.00% set respective tones.

Mtl JP  14:00:04 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Gold.... is a form of PPT
1240 atm , up from 1220 earlier this am

GVI Forex john   13:54:58 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Kwun- too risky for me!

Keep in mind USDX effectively is EURUSD. USDX is a very poorly constructed index.

Central Kwun  13:49:52 GMT - 10/15/2014  

Sell usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:
is it a bit over react

GVI Forex john   13:47:43 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Ugly. Stop losses triggered everywhere.

EURUSD higher on the unwind of carry trades.

What that means is that hedge finds etc. had been borrowing "cheap" EUR to buy U.S. stocks. As they are forced out of U.S. stocks they have to buy back EUR to pay off those loans.

That is why long EURUSD is a RISK-OFF trade.

Paris ib  13:44:26 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Yeah well maybe there is and maybe there isn't. What you have to ask yourself is what are the aims here? Support the economy and 'the people' or ensure the Government can continue to fund itself at a relatively low cost.

There is no reason to believe that the PPT or the Government is actually working for 'the people'. Far as I can tell.

GVI Forex john   13:42:39 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Where is the PPT? too bad there isn't one!

Paris ib  13:42:09 GMT - 10/15/2014  
The Government gets to fund itself at a reasonably cheap rate. Do you expect them to be displeased? The last market crash saw the U.S. Government funding costs collapse and a massive expansion in Government spending. So everyone's happy. At least the back room boys are happy.

GVI Forex john   13:41:14 GMT - 10/15/2014  
S&P -38


GVI Forex john   13:37:51 GMT - 10/15/2014  

london r  13:36:18 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Yen. That was quick. 50% fib at 105.54. Prev high at 10544. Should bounce. If not then goes from censored to worse for dollar and 10450 10375.
Stix 1846 if cant bounce there sane as abv. For futs 1840

Paris ib  13:35:47 GMT - 10/15/2014  
And that does not necessarily mean an economic recovery. What happened in Japan? Endless Government spending. Massive ongoing cuts to household income and spending. A property market collapse which never ended. No-one in Japan can get a mortgage. Bond yields collapsed. Corporate profits remain high. In fact you have an economy of servitude essentially. Corporatism at its very worst. If that's the role model the people of the U.S. have nothing to look forward to. Except a much weaker USD.

GVI Forex john   13:35:27 GMT - 10/15/2014  
JP- 1.995% !!!!!!!
I don't believe it

GVI Forex john   13:32:37 GMT - 10/15/2014  

Paris ib  13:31:27 GMT - 10/15/2014  
nh the FED does not 'have to' do anything. We have a very ideological driven FED in the United States. The role model seems to be the BoJ and we all know what happened (and is still happening) to JGB bond yields. If we are to factor in anything it might be a much more dovish FED than anyone imagines. And a much weaker USD.

GVI Forex john   13:27:53 GMT - 10/15/2014  
10-yr 2.031% yield in freefall?

Livingston nh  13:26:19 GMT - 10/15/2014  
JP - past year market has been saying "It's only a trillion dollars" - so maybe now they are starting to do the math // the bubble is in the Treasury market not stox - for corrections in stox see 2011 or 2006, even with energy pressure DJI is about the same level as Aug bottom (Dow broke 200dma back in Feb drop) - so now we get a real correction in SPX, lower than last pullback for the first time

Fed has to hike rates sooner and stop w/ all the "Goblin under the Bed" excuses

Mtl JP  13:25:45 GMT - 10/15/2014  
pic of 10-yr price action

GVI Forex john   12:46:54 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Don't worry I have a call into Janet. Waiting for her to call back.

GVI Forex john   12:45:34 GMT - 10/15/2014  
10-yr 2.108%

Mtl JP  12:15:01 GMT - 10/15/2014  
the catalyst is fear
the manifestation is folks pulling money from stocks and going into (near)cash
chief FED gang meddler yellen might be "worried" about fear morphing into panic. But what can she do and, more importantly besides worry, what will she do. Players didnt like the two previous attempts at their QE punchbowl being taken away, 2x FED gang back off.
3rd time is the charm says the old saw

london red  12:14:03 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Retail sales. Headline may miss but watch ex for strength.
Yen. Trendline just below current levels, a miss may spike to 64 fib. We bounced once so now v imp support. Either they db here or we do 10550/105.
Chris 114 barrier gets done on wti 80 break. You dont want to call time on nice trend but 114/115 prob temp top. Pullback 112 max. 144ema kicked it off at 11216 trendline 11413 abv makes parabolic.

GVI Forex john   11:59:52 GMT - 10/15/2014  
fwiw THe next Fed decision is two weeks from today.

GVI Forex john   11:54:39 GMT - 10/15/2014  
10-yr 2.162%

JP- 2.00% offered for the 10-yr yield would be a major move. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be, but then I'm having trouble figuring out why yields have fallen this far. If I were Yellen, I would definitely be troubled by current developments.

Mtl JP  11:52:30 GMT - 10/15/2014  
Message to the "policy-setting" FED gang

“The only difference between a rut and a grave is the depth.”

Mtl JP  11:48:46 GMT - 10/15/2014  
john 10:33 despite its unchanging specific gravity, Gold is flying over last hour. Maybe we see 10-yr offer 2.00% yield today

Mtl JP  11:24:04 GMT - 10/15/2014  
john 10:33 are you worried about (an officially) negative return ?
if y, why ?

Mtl JP  10:41:02 GMT - 10/15/2014  
john - As you can see, the numbers are still at a very high absolute levels. No reason to panic yet.

Just sit back and enjoy the dump.

GVI Forex john   10:33:13 GMT - 10/15/2014  
10-yr 2.203%

GVI Forex john   10:25:16 GMT - 10/15/2014  
S&P 200-day average 1905.68 moving out of range? (1877 Tues Close)

GVI Forex john   09:20:40 GMT - 10/15/2014  
09:20 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Trading in Europe early is off to generally a RISK-OFF bias, but we have noted that U.S. domestic markets often do not like to follow the lead of overseas activity. We will see. U.K. employment data reported today improved, but fell short of street expectations. Bond yields generally are depressed  The EURUSD is trading lower below 1.2700.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower.  The Peripheral bond yields are mostly down, but volatile Greek yields are up. The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is lower  The U.S. bond markets yields are below 2.20%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher.  Bourses in Europe are down. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

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