JM on the money as usual, watch the reaction on the data. for now past res becomes support at 86/82. today you have fib res at 2748 and trendline at 2751 (day) 2757 (1h/4h). early we stop 2 points shy of the 20 day at 2720, second time likely to break. motto is euro rarely gives you twice the chance to sell the high - if it does its going up not down!
Mtl JP 04:24:07 GMT - 10/27/2014
China’s forex regulator reassured markets that there was no need to worry about a $100 billion fall in reserves in the third quarter — the largest such drop since 1996.
China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June
GVI Forex02:04:19 GMT - 10/27/2014
EURUSD 1.2707 is weekly pivot
NY JM 00:18:23 GMT - 10/27/2014
The stress tests were a non-event and next up is the German IFO. EURUSD upside should be restrained ahead of it but then test comes after depending on how it reacts to what is expected to be a weaker report... see if it shrugs off the IFO. That's your clue
Sydney ACC 19:23:38 GMT - 10/26/2014
Rather than capital shortfalls being the problem as I see it the issue is future growth of their balance sheet. Without a firm capital base these banks will continue to underperform in terms of growth. For an economy to grow it requires its banks to grow as well. There's likely to be a continuing reluctance for investors to invest ordinary capital in these banks as the dividends they pay in the near future are unlikely to reflect the full risk/reward ratio. As consequence they will continue to act as a drag on their respective national economies.
Roughly one in five of the euro zone's top lenders failed landmark health checks at the end of last year but most have since repaired their finances ... .. ... the amount of risky loans - which have not been serviced in 90 days - upwards by 136 billion euros to 879 billion ... .. ... an important partial success, which will help reduce uncertainty," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of Germany's DIW economic institute. ...
Kaunas DP 16:32:39 GMT - 10/26/2014
sounds very academic... eur/usd will gap down
GVI Forex john 16:12:10 GMT - 10/26/2014
aL - I agree, but it could generate some secondary EUR demand.?
Dillon AL 15:58:26 GMT - 10/26/2014
The report also states: total shortfall of 25 billion euros ($32 billion), most of which has since been raised by banks
they have 9 months to fill the residual shortfall
this to my mind rather than the capital shortfall is the issue
The stock of bad loans in the euro-area banking system now stands at 879 billion euros, the report said.
Italian banks will have to implement the largest asset-value adjustments according to the findings of the review, equivalent to 12 billion euros. Greek banks will have to revalue by 7.6 billion euros, and German banks by 6.7 billion euros, the report showed.
so using some basic maths the question is where is the balance of approx. 850 billion. cos if that is mainly in the UK then I can see EurGbp being the trade
Dillon AL 15:22:04 GMT - 10/26/2014
why do you think that the demand for the new capital would come from outside the Euro area creating an FX flow. It is much more likely to come through M&A within the borders.
GVI Forex john 11:43:39 GMT - 10/26/2014
Stress tests come out much as leaked on Friday. Depending on how, and in what time-frame the new EUR 25bln in capital is raised, there could be extra EUR demand. This should not be a big surprise to the banks in question. Otherwise, I don't see much in trading implications for the new week. Does anyone have another view?
GVI Forex11:30:35 GMT - 10/26/2014
Twenty-five banks in the euro area will need to raise 25 billion euros ($31.7 billion) of fresh capital, after the European Central Bank probed their balance sheets and subjected them to a stress test.
Of the 25 banks that failed the assessment, 12 have already covered their shortfalls in the year to Sept. 30, the ECB said....
"If a person is important,people will line up to visit him even if he lives in a remote mountain village..If a person is not important,nobody will visit him even if he lives in the centre of a busy town"..(Chinese proveb).. - shanghai bc, 2006
dc CB 16:06:18 GMT - 10/24/2014
Last month, when, with great amusement, we reported that "New Home Sales Explode Higher Thanks To... Record High Average New Home Prices?", we mocked the latest batch of censored data released by the US department of truth as follows:
New Home Sales rose a magnificent (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) 18% in August - the biggest monthly rise since January 1992 albeit with a 16.3 90% confidence interval, meaning the final number may well be +1.7%. At 504k, new home sales are back at May 2008 levels (though obviously massively below the 1.4 million homes sold at the peak in 2005). As a reminder, May's 504K new home sales print was later revised later to 458K. But even more stunning, new home sales in The West rose a mind-numbing 50% in August (and up 84.4% YoY - nearly double).
Well, it is now a month later, and here come the revisions: first, that 50% surge in the West was revised... 30K lower. But to get a sense of just how bad the revision was, here is the old, pre-revision data, and the "data" following the latest revision.
My Ph.D. dissertation chairman, who became a high Pentagon official assigned to wind down the Vietnam war, in answer to my question about how Washington gets Europeans to always do what Washington wants replied: “Money, we give them money.” “Foreign aid?” I asked. “No, we give the European political leaders bagfuls of money. They are for sale, We bought them. They report to us.”
So when Europeans or Japanese make decisions which are clearly not in their interests the explanation is relatively simple. It remains to be seen if the U.S. has bought enough politicians to push a European QE through. They managed with Japan. We shall see.
After European Clocks move back by an hour early Sunday, the time gap between New York and London markets will shrink to four hours from five until North American clocks move back an hour one week later.
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB/EZ- Clocks Back one hour, DE- IFO Survey, US- flash Service PMI,
Pending Homes Sales
Far East: No Major Data
Europe: GB/EZ- Clocks Back one hour, DE- IFO Survey
North America: US- flash Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales
Mtl JP 14:24:44 GMT - 10/24/2014
ib 13:58 the German does count. Probably as an anti-character in the Kabuki. The printer , however, trumps. There is a reason why the German is still occupied by American boot. His submission and ultimate impotence is so well illustrated by his "decision" to stop repatriation of his Gold from the Fed
GVI Forex john 14:09:25 GMT - 10/24/2014
New Homes Sales (blue line) dead flat from early 2013.
GVI Forex john 14:06:55 GMT - 10/24/2014
New Homes Sales in September unchanged from downwardly revised August data.
Livingston nh 14:05:56 GMT - 10/24/2014
JP - there's a lag of up to 3 months to closing - contract usually has contingencies, i.e., mortgage
Mtl JP 14:03:32 GMT - 10/24/2014
what is the dif signed contracts vs closed sales?
GVI Forex john 14:02:22 GMT - 10/24/2014
New Homes sales unchanged AFTER revisions. These are signed contracts, not closed sales, as in Existing Homes Sales.
JP - whatever that means. The Americans printed. It didn't work. So far the market has mostly ignored how badly it didn't work. However, when you add in all the tragic geopolitical mistakes the Americans have made, to compound the problem, then we are likely to see fairly soon just how badly it hasn't worked. And no, despite all the encouragement from these right wing think tanks and publications, the ECB is not about to embark on QE to save the USD. Even if half Europe's politicians and bankers are on the U.S. payroll. And yes Germany does count. And from where I'm standing: thank god for that.
Paris ib 13:55:25 GMT - 10/24/2014
Europe - or rather the Euro Area - is currently running a current account surplus equivalent to 2.5% of annual GDP. The capital available in Europe is plenty. But if you think 'the end is nigh' and the Euro area is going to break up and so and so forth then may I suggest taking a short position on the Euro, which is currently trading at 1.2685. I have no problem taking the other side of that trade.
Mtl JP 13:53:34 GMT - 10/24/2014
don't forget that Europeans have relatively recent experience with restructuring public and private debt: default thru hyper-printing (in Germany) and finally money exchange a la Française. It is a formula that has worked with all its pains (to most) and pleasures (to some). And a historical suggestion to leave aside personal indignation and accept that bankers have less than zero sympathy for the great unwashed.
Livingston nh 13:51:19 GMT - 10/24/2014
EURzone banks got the AQR news last night - the joint fund is 50 bio EUR -- so how much is required? raising capital in some country banks will be difficult especially if bank stocks in question sell off after the report
Paris ib 13:40:33 GMT - 10/24/2014
From the Economist: 'central bankers are not providing the world with the inflation it needs'
There is so much wrong with that sentence. Suffice to say: I stopped reading the Economist years ago. I don't need ideology rammed down my throat by a bunch of people who have never even had a real job.
Print they will. It does not matter what the German wants.
Too much bank and fin institution debt trumps.
london red 13:30:31 GMT - 10/24/2014
Euro feeling bid. Res at 86 might give as its making a bit of a coiled spring but expect trendline to hold at 12735 and price to close below 10 day ma at 2721 and poss 20 at 2685. Close below 12686 on the week is bearish.
Paris ib 13:24:57 GMT - 10/24/2014
Our friends in the media and on the newswires have been pressing too hard on the 'sell Euro' button lately. All the spooky headlines based on nothing much (ECB to buy corporate bonds, then there was another 'scare' story I can't even remember now)...... all the boo stuff is starting to undermine their credibility. Meanwhile lurking in the shadows another story waits to break....
"unless it can continue rolling over trillions of dollars in short-term debt every month at record-low interest rates, it won't be able to pay the interest on its debt or its bills....... causing a financial stampede to the exits just requires somebody to yell “Boo!” loudly and frighteningly enough."
Belgian Consumer Confidence -6.8 vs -7.9. Usually a predictor of German IFO due on Monday.
Mtl JP 13:07:22 GMT - 10/24/2014
it might be .. maybe the expection was for 80+ banks failing
London Chris 13:00:49 GMT - 10/24/2014
This is not being borne out by the price action.
GVI Forex john 12:53:19 GMT - 10/24/2014
Hearing report 25 of 130 banks failed AQR stress tests. Not an authoritative report.
sd sf 09:23:51 GMT - 10/24/2014
gbpyen as well is pretty important
was couple of highs 60-65 and now tested 90 and rejected.
I'm not that confident $yen can track up through 30 till we see US Stock Performance -- because really it has just bailed out some weakish longs from Asia .. I doubt there is any fresh new longs going in at these prices.
EUR you can see its tough to push it lower or to get it higher - which spells bad news for someone on the open Monday depending how things turn out... as not much chance to do anything with a bad position... in such a small range.
AUD I was wrong on that I thought it would stay 30-65 and Gold 27-32... but that's the market for you.
Back at it Tuesday .. all the best.
london red 08:58:14 GMT - 10/24/2014
eurgbp. 70-74 v imp for direction.
london red 08:49:36 GMT - 10/24/2014
data probably a slight relief hence the bounce but think 16080-16112 good lvl to sell stop over over 6132
GVI Forex john 08:35:17 GMT - 10/24/2014
U.K. preliminary 3Q14 GDP down slightly. Solid data.
GVI Forex john 08:30:52 GMT - 10/24/2014
UK GDP-- 3Q14 preliminary
-- NEWS ALERT --
QQ +0.70% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
YY +0.30% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. +3.20% prev.
I ve been wondering about some lurking version of Stuxnet , sitting waiting for some trigger : what would go up in price and what down if cell comm were shut down for ... some time
Mtl JP 21:51:51 GMT - 10/23/2014
nh 21:45 ok. not good nuff for profit generation as no way to put some sort of meter / toll on that. so I wait for new improved version.
Livingston nh 21:45:04 GMT - 10/23/2014
JP - when I want the attention of the next generation I merely unplug the router - BUT I am open to other ideas
GVI Forex john 21:44:49 GMT - 10/23/2014
Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New
Homes Sales-- housing measure
Livingston nh 21:42:39 GMT - 10/23/2014
JP - sorry I missed your plague inquiry - yes // another reason to sell EUR - the spread of Ebola beyond previous outbreaks is a do-gooder problem in Europe - Trading vessels (and occupants) might be burned in prior centuries - this is no longer ACCEPTABLE -- the new improved Europe allows refugee immigrants so the spread should be quick
In the US we think the do-gooder volunteers should be allowed to spread the virus and the pres, always reluctant to offend, agrees - hence no travel ban or containment until (WAIT FOR IT) the pharma companies gear up (no cure but a daily pill)
the Great Unwashed won't panic because all previous alerts (swine, HK, bird flu etc.- faux science) have been false alarms -- ahh, but when the WOLF finally appears nobody takes warning seriously
ah but I'm sure it will be different this time
Mtl JP 21:37:44 GMT - 10/23/2014
nh 20:49 pray tell how far/close you are to "breaking bad social habits" . I might have a business proposal.
dc CB 21:36:32 GMT - 10/23/2014
The state Department of Health is closely monitoring this potential case and is working with the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ensure that all appropriate protocols are being followed to protect public health and safety.
This patient is undergoing testing at Bellevue Hospital, which is one of the eight hospitals statewide that Governor Cuomo designated earlier this month as part of his Ebola Preparedness Plan to handle potential cases.
So go about your business, spend, consume, walk around, use Uber... and we'll let u know in 12 hours if this chap that's been in NYC for 10 days is infected with a deadly disease
GOPRO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT OPPENHEIMER, PT $45: BBG
sorry Selfie Crowd...get a great shot of the flames and post it on Vimeo.
Livingston nh 20:49:08 GMT - 10/23/2014
jp - hehehe I see that lack of response in verbal communication with my grandchildren (my kids know better) - they come into house, say hello and sit at the dining room table and TEXT, PLAY or whatever
but AMZN gets a dime for every business they put out of business, and a quarter for every bookstore...
plus 50cents for every Amurican they keep Stupid by shutting down all those bookstores.
all that goes into Jeff's private acct.
GVI Forex john 20:13:41 GMT - 10/23/2014
Livingston nh 20:09:22 GMT - 10/23/2014
John - but what about EBITDA?? we lose a nickel on every sale but we make it up in volume
one born every minute
GVI Forex john 20:05:11 GMT - 10/23/2014
Amazon big miss.
dc CB 20:03:22 GMT - 10/23/2014
POSSIBLE NYC EBOLA PATIENT DID NOT SELF-QUARANTINE: CNN
but all you have to do is drink plently of liquids...yeh that's the ticket.
Mtl JP 20:03:02 GMT - 10/23/2014
nh r u refering to Black Death of 1348/50 which saw the great unwashed lose faith in their then rulers ?
So far I don't see enuff distrust and much less panic sufficient to pull down current social overlord order.
Livingston nh 19:48:26 GMT - 10/23/2014
14th century Europe provides some medical guidelines for dealing with the problem and Monty Python shows the consequences of failure
GVI Forex19:47:50 GMT - 10/23/2014
(Reuters) - A New York City hospital is running Ebola tests on a doctor who returned to the United States from West Africa with a fever and gastrointestinal symptoms, the city's Health Department said on Thursday.
Preliminary test results were expected in the next 12 hours...
he's apparently not just "a healthcare worker" (but maybe that's the Czar at work on the "Story")
Mtl JP 19:36:17 GMT - 10/23/2014
how long for ebola tests results - 15 minutes ?
Livingston nh 19:29:05 GMT - 10/23/2014
Nervous markets and the slightest breeze
GVI Forex john 19:28:06 GMT - 10/23/2014
Officials say a healthcare worker in New York City is being tested at Bellevue Hospital for possible Ebola- CNBC
News hit Stocks...
Paris ib 19:14:49 GMT - 10/23/2014
rafe - I don't know what you are talking about. The U.K. establishment wanted a job done. Soros did the job. And he got paid for it. He wasn't betting or guessing or investing. He had the full force of the establishment behind him. He worked for them. People who lost would have been small business people, industry.... the usual non insiders.
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:09:00 GMT - 10/23/2014
IB// I know what your saying but the ground reading was in Soros favor which is why he won in the first place, and the truth is that he made a profit, had they listened to him they would not have been in such a predicament, ground reality is that it's their loss... LOL.
Paris ib 18:58:16 GMT - 10/23/2014
rafe - Soros was insider trading for the BOE. That's not possible for most people. It was a h.ell of a time to be in the market o/n rates went up to 500% - you couldn't make money even if you got the direction right. So you know, feed the legend but remember the reality on the ground was different.
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:54:14 GMT - 10/23/2014
The point is that front running the BOE the point is now matter if your a tech, a speck or a fleck, the point is to get on the train before everyone realizes where the moneys flowing, it is known as smart money or FIFO. The public uses the LICO technique, Last In, Candles out...
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:48:36 GMT - 10/23/2014
I'm off boys... see you all in a couple months...
A small piece of motivation for the true bloods.
I'll be reading occasionally but no more posting of targets or clarifying the mysterious adages of "you can only be an analyst or a money manager but not both" which is an erroneous excuse (as that is only creating space for failure). It just depends on what your blood is made of. I speak from experience, I treasure my anonymity, less is more... Long live Soros!!
Paris ib 18:45:38 GMT - 10/23/2014
"the "Soros put" is a legacy hedge position that the 84-year old has been rolling over every quarter since 2010"
the put is probably only one side of the trade. i was once introduced to some folk that where usually short the index and individual components, the laggards i think,were changed from underweight/overweight at the end of the days trade (or on the open i forget which now). now this was supposed to perform in a bull market amongst others. really its immaterial what they did but i suppose they lost on the short index side.
its also unheard of to have a naked 2 yard position. there ia always the other side. well unless you're jerome and worked for paribas of course.
Paris ib 18:24:31 GMT - 10/23/2014
Actually old doesn't cover it. Decrepit does.
Paris ib 18:21:55 GMT - 10/23/2014
He is old. He is finished.
PAR18:17:10 GMT - 10/23/2014
He is rich . Money can buy everything , central bankers , politicians, inside tips etc
dc CB 18:11:31 GMT - 10/23/2014
what's the story on this?
Reuters reported moments ago, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Thursday the government will expedite plans to give more powers of detention and surveillance to security agencies in the wake of an attack on Parliament.
"They need to be much strengthened, and I assure you, Mr. Speaker, that work which is already under way will be expedited," he told the House of Commons, one day after a gunman launched an attack on Parliament and was shot dead.
On the other hand, instead of giving the government even more authoritarian power to do with civilian liberties as it sees fit and appropriate, perhaps the government's agencies could have simply done their work better under the existing laws and regulations, especially after the Sky News report that the Ottawa shooter, Canadian born Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, was already on a terror watch list:
The gunman who killed a soldier in Ottawa and stormed Canada's parliament had been put on a terror watch list, it has emerged.
rafe - I very much doubt the independence of Soros. He is an insider. The whole BOE thing is a joke. He didn't break the bank. He did what was required of him and got the U.K. out of the European Monetary System by front running the collapse of the pound. He has very deep links with colour revolutions in Eastern Europe. There is no question that right now major geopolitical unrest would work in his financial interests. He may be 'no fool' but that's really not enough of an endorsement.
Its my understanding that Soros has always used money managers, especially when he financed the run on the Bank of England, I don't know who he used when he got slammed on his equally famous JPY trade.
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:39:12 GMT - 10/23/2014
IB//, Soros is no fool, with many yards on the line he cannot afford to employ others to misguide his decisions, he'd be throwing good money after bad money.
He may lose 2 yards but will cover with 5 in the bank.
That is a guarantee...
GVI Forex john 17:16:56 GMT - 10/23/2014
U.K. and Eurozone clocks "fall back" one hour to winter time early on Sunday. The U.S. follows suit one week later.
Paris ib 15:22:39 GMT - 10/23/2014
Taking the other side of the Soros put anyone? ..... well for now the whole market is. The put is now apparently worth 2 billion USD. What I'd like to know is that mark to market? I mean considering he's been holding it for over a year (I don't know how long but easily at least a year) and considering he has lost time value and the market has gone against him over that time then he must have ADDED hugely to that position. Otherwise by now he would have a piddling little put. Of course if he could get WWIII going or something similar he might be able to make money. Want world peace? Bankrupt Soros. :-)
GVI Forex john 15:10:48 GMT - 10/23/2014
red so its likely to start to leak at any time? If I recall correctly U.S. banks got the results beforehand so they could prepare for the release, and those leaked.
tokyo ginko 15:07:30 GMT - 10/23/2014
Warmonger....put him down...
maybe he got caught shorting global equities...
london red 15:06:15 GMT - 10/23/2014
Banks get these today or tomorrow i believe john. Worth looking at the bank stocks
GVI Forex john 15:02:20 GMT - 10/23/2014
The bulk of the major data for the week is now behind us. Sunday sees the release of the European bank stress tests. I have seen no time for these announcements yet.
I was just looking at some strategy updates and saw this:
sold 100 eur @1.2550 - bought 100 eur @ 1.2820
sold 200 eur @1.2650
after reading this I am closing down my eurusd strategies till next week when all the tests etc are done... and see where it ends up... as that sort of trading record doesn't inspire me to stay short... its been a fun few days with it - but probably time to pull up stumps.
.. I agree on the $yen its broken up and should go to 80-90 on the day.
SaaR KaL 10:23:05 GMT - 10/23/2014
I am tgt 1.68 in Jan/2015 for cable BTW
london red 10:20:57 GMT - 10/23/2014
cable outperforming really despite poor data but needs to clear asia high 50/60 to make headway otherwise the risk of sub 1.6 remains. bit of an shs building targeting 1.59
yen. 64 res attempted twice hopefully a bit of consolidation into us session around 40 for another test and then break to 90.
london red 08:46:39 GMT - 10/23/2014
one of the reasons sales are being squeezed lower. price war will only increase as tesco needs to reduce prices further to stop the rot and with a quarter market share, its pricing will have an effect on uk sales.
"Tesco's share price dive-bombed today after it was revealed profits slumped 91.9 per cent, its chairman quit and a £250million accounting scandal was even worse than predicted."
"Police are also expected to launch a criminal investigation over an accounting scandal that saw its first half profits artificially inflated by £263million, more than the £250million estimated last month."
Don't know what is going on over there, but it sounds ugly.
london red 08:41:14 GMT - 10/23/2014
10yr dec now below yr low and black wed low. yen res 64 abv 90
GVI Forex john 08:40:32 GMT - 10/23/2014
U.K. Retail Sales data fall and miss expectations. GBPUSD lower.
GVI Forex john 08:35:56 GMT - 10/23/2014
weaker than expected.
GVI Forex john 08:34:57 GMT - 10/23/2014
GB Retail Sales September 2014
-- NEWS ALERT --
mm: -0.30% vs.- 0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
yy: +2.70% vs. +2.90% exp. vs. +3.90% (-3.70%) prev.
mm: -0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% (+0.30%) prev.
yy: +3.10% vs. +3.50% exp. vs. +4.50% (+4.40%) prev.
"Other factors also augur for continued recovery. The fiscal drags on the economy that persisted during the crisis are dissipating. Drastic ECB easing programs including negative deposit rates and a low-interest loan program for Eurozone banks should spark more bank lending and thus more economic activity. While many banks have been reducing lending to strengthen their balance sheets ahead of the central bank’s impending Asset Quality Review process, that process will be over by autumn."
EZ, GE flash Mfg PMIs. Mostly better, except France.
EZ, German and French flash Services PMIs. Flat to weaker
Paris ib 08:08:26 GMT - 10/23/2014
Paris ib 18:07 GMT October 16, 2014
"Although it sounds trivial, a calendar issue likely exaggerated the drop in industrial production. When bank holidays fall on a Thursday in Europe, workers tend to take Friday off as well to have a long weekend. But official statistics still count the Friday as a full working day, which puts a damper on output. Over the past 30 years, Eurozone industrial production has contracted an average of nearly 2 percent in May in years when May Day occurred on a Thursday."
I posted this on the 16th and it's still worth a read.
Right "the market" consensus seems to be: Europe is going down the toilet, it would be a tragedy for everyone if the USD stops being the world reserve currency, the U.S. economic recovery continues..... I would question pretty much all of that.
North America: US- Weekly Jobless, flash PMI. Lead Indicators, Natural Gas
Mtl JP 14:33:53 GMT - 10/22/2014
too much oil.. too many wells still pumping
I tried to tell oil co. do not fill tanks of hybrids, you shoot yourself in the foot ... did they listen ? nooooooo
GVI Forex john 14:32:47 GMT - 10/22/2014
GVI Forex john 14:31:22 GMT - 10/22/2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Crude Oil: +7.000 vs. +3.000 exp vs. +8.900 prev.
Gasoline: -1.300 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -4.000 prev.
Distillates: +1.050 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.5200 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.70% vs.87.90% exp vs. 88.10% prev. ,br>
Weekly Petroleum Status
ECB's Nowotny downplays chances for immediate ECB QE moves.
GVI Forex john 14:26:44 GMT - 10/22/2014
ECB's Nowotny downplays chances for immediate ECB QE moves.
GVI Forex john 14:16:10 GMT - 10/22/2014
Shooting was at Canadian War Memorial near Parliament.
GVI Forex john 14:12:30 GMT - 10/22/2014
CAD stronger after BOC removed the word "neutral" from its future policy guidance statement. The change is seen as hawkish.
GVI Forex john 14:08:03 GMT - 10/22/2014
We don't have any details yet, but there has been a shooting at Canada's Parliament Hill. Apparently it is on lock-down following another terrorist event earlier this week.
GVI Forex john 14:03:44 GMT - 10/22/2014
"...Canada’s real GDP growth is projected to average close to 2 1/2 per cent over the next year before slowing gradually to 2 per cent by the end of 2016, roughly the estimated growth rate of potential output. As global headwinds recede, confidence in the sustainability of domestic and global demand should improve and business investment should pick up. Together with a moderation in the growth of household spending, this is expected to gradually return Canada’s economy to a more balanced growth path. As the economy reaches its full capacity in the second half of 2016, both core and total CPI inflation are projected to be about 2 per cent on a sustained basis.
Weighing all of these factors, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, the financial stability risks associated with household imbalances are edging higher. Overall, the balance of risks falls within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 1 per cent."
US CPI - the devil is in the details - the three Bs of a balanced diet (beef, butter & bacon) offset the oil decline - shelter and medical were noted as drivers which could affect the Fed's "preferred rate" because of the weighting of these two, especially medical which accounts for 3x the weighting in the CPI (representative of GDP)
no reactions of note in FI
GVI Forex john 12:42:31 GMT - 10/22/2014
Canada: Retail Sales miss estimates.
GVI Forex john 12:40:29 GMT - 10/22/2014
U.S. September CPI a bit hotter than expected...
GVI Forex john 12:32:18 GMT - 10/22/2014
Retail Sales August 2014
Headline:-0.30% % vs. 0.0% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
X-Autos: -0.30% % vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.60% (-0.50%) prev.
"Strumming my pain with his fingers
Singing my life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Read more: The Fugees - Killing Me Softly Lyrics - MetroLyrics
london red 12:00:09 GMT - 10/22/2014
sell dollar if you look for weak cpi. if cpi -0.1m/m then i expect euro tests 12747 flash, then 88/90 if they dont fade.
looking at the cpi oil correlation, cpi is due to dip/catch up but has oil been down long enough to make an effect?
looking at cad, maybe a perfect storm if sales can at least meet. 11165 fib test and long into boc meet which is v likely to be dovish.
GVI Forex11:51:52 GMT - 10/22/2014
Anyone have a strategy of CPI comes in soft?
london red 11:39:18 GMT - 10/22/2014
maybe its a case of the fed seeing what they want to see, but its hard to argue with that view from lloyds. would b v surprising to see a spike higher and possibly something to fade next time/november.
GVI Forex11:32:47 GMT - 10/22/2014
In the US, focus will be on September CPI data. We expect the headline rate will have fallen to 1.5% (consensus 1.6%) - a six month low. If confirmed, it will likely reinforce disinflationary concerns.
Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook
Mtl JP 09:22:06 GMT - 10/22/2014
Oct 22 (Reuters) - The incoming head of the EU executive, Jean-Claude Juncker, told the European Parliament on Wednesday that he would present his 300-billion-euro plan for investment to bolster growth and jobs by the end of this year. .../..
what a grand idea ! couple that to Marios "buying" of corp bonds... what could possibly cause the plan go into the ditch ?
GVI Forex09:14:21 GMT - 10/22/2014
ECB offucial says re stress tests report that everything at this point is "highly speculative".
london red 08:52:37 GMT - 10/22/2014
appears to have lost momentum so cut for 7 points
GVI Forex08:51:41 GMT - 10/22/2014
130 banks were evaluated
missing 2 in story.
Results due on Sunday
GVI Forex08:45:51 GMT - 10/22/2014
At least 11 banks will fail stress tests -- Spanish press
long at 86 stop at 77. looking for trendline retest and take it from there.
GVI Forex08:05:19 GMT - 10/22/2014
Minutes of the BoE’s October MPC meeting are released this morning. The minutes of the September MPC meeting maintained the 7-2 vote split, with Weale and McCafferty continuing to prefer an immediate 25 bps increase in Bank Rate. But there is little to suggest that further members will have been swayed by developments prior to the October meeting to join the dissenters. In the absence of tangible signs of inflationary pressure, either in price or wage data, and a still-fragile outlook for the euro area, our view remains that the Committe will continue to exercise restraint, before beginning the process of normalising interest rates in Q1 2015. Labour market data released subsequent to the meeting, which points to a continued rapid absorption of spare capacity and stirrings of wage inflation, suggest some scope for the split vote to persist in the months ahead. Martin Weale is scheduled to speak later in the evening. It will be interesting to hear any comments from him regarding recent market gyrations, and if that has changed his assessment of the appropriate mone
Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook
GVI Forex00:39:13 GMT - 10/22/2014
MNI: AUSTRALIA Q3 ALL GROUPS CPI +2.3% Y/Y; MNI MEDIAN +2.2%
01:30 AU CPI -- RBA
08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
12:30 CA Retail
Sales-- key demand measure
12:30 US CPI
-- Fed targets inflation
14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR
-- policy seen steady
23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC
flash PM-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE MFG
PMI flash-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE SVC
PMI flash -- universal economic survey
flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
12:30 US Initial
Claims--freshest jobs data
13:45 US Mfg
MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey FRIDAY
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New
Homes Sales-- housing measure
GVI Forex john 20:36:36 GMT - 10/21/2014
Weekly US API DatA
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +1.200 vs. +3.0000 exp vs. +8.900 prev.
Gasoline: -0.500 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -4.000 prev.
Distillates: -0.800 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.520 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.70% vs. N/A exp vs. 88.10% prev.
PAR- frankly I don't know why Bullard made those comments. All I know is that the Fed has a dysfunctional communications system. I don't pay much attention to most of what they say, except Yellen, Dudley or Stanley Fischer. The rest of them are speaking for themselves.
GVI Forex john 14:07:01 GMT - 10/21/2014
Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Data were better than expected.
PAR14:03:35 GMT - 10/21/2014
Good numbers . Will James Bullard change his opinion on QE4 ? CanCNBC interview him ?
Buy the dip in EURUSD . Buy any dip in the stock market .
Mtl JP 13:38:52 GMT - 10/21/2014
Draghi is like my wife. I love my wife. Therefore I love Draghi.
NY JM 13:37:02 GMT - 10/21/2014
So PAR are you bearish EUR?
PAR13:36:00 GMT - 10/21/2014
If Draghi is not buying corporate bonds , than he will buy something else . Sovereign bonds , italian municipalities ,notes issued by Montei Paschi or Spirito Santo etc . But buying he will .
He is like my wife , if she does not find the right shoes ,she buys a purse.
london red 12:33:21 GMT - 10/21/2014
s&p. a little earlier futs were indicating the index opening at 50% of recent fall. now a little lower although abv the 200 day ma today at 1909. the close will be interesting. if market is to fall further, often the do a bull trap at this average, sucking in longs only to sell off towards the close and finish under the average. but i dont dismiss the us stock bulls and a close abv the 200 day day have us at 1945 and 1975 lightning fast.
london red 12:23:01 GMT - 10/21/2014
just covered here. sit aside for now. its a bit quick down to the 50, may bounce ahead of the 47 support.
london red 12:12:37 GMT - 10/21/2014
got patches of the upside but have used the opportunity to resell. 5 day ema at 65 below here focus on 47 again while topside remains 90(88) thru there required to bring on 12806 test. by that time it might have a bid feel and thru 06 brings on test of high. but for now picture is different.
GVI Forex john 12:03:18 GMT - 10/21/2014
The initial story was always doubtful.
GVI Forex john 12:01:02 GMT - 10/21/2014
FT- Corporate bond buying not on the table at ECB. EURUSD rebounds.
GVI Forex john 08:57:25 GMT - 10/21/2014
EARLIER: China GDP slows less than expected to +7.3% yy.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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