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Mtl JP  19:01:14 GMT - 10/29/2014  
stocks now have one hour to prove me right (i.e. close green)
DJIA off 0.32%
SnP off 0.36%


Mtl JP  17:34:39 GMT - 10/29/2014  
Babsom Break (3% puke) would be:
DJIA: 16490
SnP : 1919.6
-
10% DJIA puke off 17,000 would be => 15,300
10% SnP puke off 1979 would be => 1781
--
ps / these are not predictions; just using mental calculator



SaaR KaL  17:30:13 GMT - 10/29/2014  
12 sigma is 1/12^2


Mtl JP  17:01:37 GMT - 10/29/2014  
12 sigma ... is that 16% ?


dc CB  16:47:15 GMT - 10/29/2014  
It is here where as Brean Capital's Peter Tchir shows in the table below, that the Fed is now the proud owner of over half of the total outstandings in the entire 10-15 Year bucket!

(chart)

In short: the simple reason why there is no more liquidity in cash Treasury securities (Treasury futures are a different matter entirely) is because the Fed is now the proud owner of a majority stake of what once was the most liquid maturity across the most liquid bond market in the world.

So the next time the market freaks out and bonds have a 12 sigma move, once the shock and awe passes, fee free to send your thank you cards to the Marriner Eccles building for destroying what once upon a time was the deepest, most liquid market in the world.

The One Table That Explains Why There No Longer Is Any Treasury Liquidity



dc CB  16:32:13 GMT - 10/29/2014  
remember remember the 15th of Oct. the death of the Bond Shorts. 30Y-Dec 148 00 down today to 140 30...remarkable.


london red  16:05:43 GMT - 10/29/2014  
stocks looking good now well abv 75/76 but 10yr not liking it, yields on the creep. so hard to call before fed. one of them is going to be wrong. dec 10 has retraced more than 50% of gains sept/black wed. if was a normal instrument you expect a first rebound to come at 61.8 or top of prev range, so 126.36/16. so they can get down to there, reverse and finish higher. fomc speak, that could mean hawkish fed (relative to expectations) and stocks down so they buy bonds on fear trade after initial sell off/spike.


Mtl JP  15:55:45 GMT - 10/29/2014  
that want to predict today's stocks close:
Green or
Red ?






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