so afterall euro can go down, not bad, still sell on rallies for me today
Mtl JP 17:44:36 GMT - 11/18/2014
euro/chf low 1.2008
hear the timbers creak ?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:26:14 GMT - 11/18/2014
JN, see my earlier post about EUR crosses. So far it has not made a serious attempt at 1,2550 despite the cross demand.
Perhaps the SNB defense of 1.20 (EURCHF currently 1.2010) is creating some EURUSD demand as well.
Miami JN 16:55:04 GMT - 11/18/2014
Does anyone know why the euro is bid today?
kl fs 16:16:22 GMT - 11/18/2014
save the bullet, better levels tomorrow probably after fomc
Paris ib 16:14:17 GMT - 11/18/2014
I wouldn't. :-)
kl shawn 16:12:44 GMT - 11/18/2014
yes frustrating, no follow through though, just marginal new high, sell again?
Paris ib 16:03:13 GMT - 11/18/2014
We're pretty close to the highs of the day in EUR/USD... more stops are likely above today's highs. You don't have to look far to guess where the stops are. We have levels published right on this forum. The market is still long USDs overall. This might be a move pushed by stops being triggered to start off with then we see what kind of follow on there is.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:55:42 GMT - 11/18/2014
As I posted on GVI Forex
Either there have been big flows or it is a market that is caught the wrong way on EURGBP as the cross remains bid and testing .8000+ again.
Offsets out of this cross + EURJPY (146+) have put a bid under EURUSD
My point is the EUR buying is not mainly vs. the USD, which is the conduit for the cross flows
It would take a solid move through 1.2578 to get the retracement calls going.
perth wtr 15:18:09 GMT - 11/18/2014
oh well, very frustrating this euro, should have closed earlier and reload
anyway, so long as high of the day is not breached...
Paris ib 14:36:10 GMT - 11/18/2014
I wonder what the Japanese have to choose from in the way of politicians. Probably like the rest of us they have no real choice. Just a bunch of party apparatchiks going through the motions. Meanwhile taxes get levied, wages fall, wars are waged and the environment is destroyed.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.
reload short euro 1.2525, as long as today's high intact....
Mtl JP 14:03:59 GMT - 11/18/2014
the musical chair risk would be screetching sound of "He is not risking much with the vote." - GVI Forex 13:24
I suppose it ll depend on how easily the Japanese collective can or not be bamboozled and fickle Japanese politics can be this time around with Abe promising even harsher anti-deflationary medicine for Japanese people.
hk ab 13:38:58 GMT - 11/18/2014
JP, we once experienced it in 1995 and 1998.... everyone knows the rule of the music chair......
Mtl JP 13:34:31 GMT - 11/18/2014
Japan is sooo screwed ... if an earthquake wont sink it, numbnuts will
Stakes in gaming Japan will offer players either massive gain or massive losses. Ladies and gentlemen... chose your weapons and take your positions.
nw kw 13:29:36 GMT - 11/18/2014
oil has the vote for pipe line looks like it will pass
Paris ib 13:28:10 GMT - 11/18/2014
The election: "He did not give a date for the election, but the media consensus is that it will be on Sunday, December 14."
Japanese Parliament will be dissolved November 21. And we get to guess the likely election date. This is gonna be fun. Not a lot of clarity from Japan. :-)
TIC data to be released in the States right on market close. So unlikely to get much press.
Opposition to Abe is in disarray. He is not risking much with the vote.
Mtl JP 13:20:56 GMT - 11/18/2014
"I need to hear the voice of the people. I will step down if we fail to keep our majority because that would mean our Abenomics is rejected." - numbnuts Abe
In polls the Japanese collective currently supports him at 50%
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15:59 GMT - 11/18/2014
EURUSD tested 1.25 on Oct 3 vs. current bid 1.2511
USDJPY closed at 109.74 on that day vs. 116.58 current bid (+6.2%)
GVI Forex john 13:12:18 GMT - 11/18/2014
fwiw- I heard somewhere, but I am not sure where that PM Abe has asked the Finance Minister to prepare a stimulus plan. Can anyone confirm?
kl fs 12:26:18 GMT - 11/18/2014
tighten stop to BE, dont like if it is going above 1.2520 again
Auto Sales in Europe Rise for 14th Consecutive Month
NY JM 12:00:20 GMT - 11/18/2014
Look at EUR crosses (e.g. EURJPY, EURGBP) if you are looking for a reason why EURUSD is at 1.25xx and not making a run at 1.24.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:44:02 GMT - 11/18/2014
I posted this on GVI Forex yesterday morning and it is now 8 out of 12 days and 3 days in a row that 1.25 has traded. It is also consistent with my week ahead outlook where I cited 1.24-1.26 as the range.
1.25 => has traded 7 out of 11 days in Nov. other days highs were 1.2470, 92, 98, 99
kl shawn 11:07:27 GMT - 11/18/2014
fs, i am trying this one once more also short 1.2520, stop 1.2547 should suffice
kl fs 11:03:42 GMT - 11/18/2014
got stopped out but reload short 1.25183, stop above today's high, then will reassess
singapore td 11:00:46 GMT - 11/18/2014
good luck those under 1.25 and 0.87, see you in a few months time
gc sf 10:56:22 GMT - 11/18/2014
hahaha no
Just $DEM was so much more fun/profitable.
This whole ECB and Draghi -- it is just like buying a $7 bottle of wine -- it is ok once or twice -- but in the long run you prefer something with more quality.
Paris ib 10:47:04 GMT - 11/18/2014
sf - hahahaahahahhaha
You could be waiting a while though. :-)
Why do you say that anyway? You want more crosses to trade or you have some economic / political point of view there?
gc sf 10:45:11 GMT - 11/18/2014
as for EUR .. the sooner the whole thing explodes and we get the $DEM back the better.
gc sf 10:40:51 GMT - 11/18/2014
on my CFD says Nikkei 17300 - the level we traded hours and hours today
during that time $YEN traded 116.50-60
so we are just back to where it all started basically.
for Asia tomorrow depends on the closing price of today.
Paris ib 10:28:03 GMT - 11/18/2014
red - 120? I've heard calls for 145 on this forum. Meanwhile Gold is up 1.46% today so if anything what's clear is the increased distrust in paper money. What floored me yesterday was the ECB official talking about the possibility of buying Gold, the point of which escapes me in terms of 'stimulation'.
nervous belly buttons out there, just one fat finger rogue trader needed today?
london red 10:20:39 GMT - 11/18/2014
travelling and arriving ib, fx 101. were going to 120/121 just not in one week.
Dar Es Salaam FM 10:19:27 GMT - 11/18/2014
The effect of Abe talking saying that it will take 18 month to implement those selling tax and market react
bali sja 10:17:42 GMT - 11/18/2014
ib, the most is SAR above the said level
nw kw 10:17:30 GMT - 11/18/2014
red-is FTSE 100 leading and is there dividends in FTSE
Paris ib 10:16:22 GMT - 11/18/2014
USD/JPY taking a belting. What's that about? Just USD selling emerging or is there more to it?
Paris ib 10:13:54 GMT - 11/18/2014
sja - Sure there is always a two way market. There is this unspoken assumption out there that any new Japanese foreign stock market buying will all be headed to the U.S.. When the market is biased in it's assumptions it's a fair call to question those assumptions. I'm not saying we have hit bottom in the Euro. But I would be cautious on Euro bearishness. Euro is headed higher on all the important crosses today (up nearly a percent against the AUD)......
london red 10:13:52 GMT - 11/18/2014
12439. past low. inverse shs until broken. eurgbp wkly trendline 8007 holding for now (7987 sup, below takes edge off move), keeping price action honest. a break there tgts lvls i mentioned yest. euro trendline 12492 again if below neutral.
bali sja 10:05:38 GMT - 11/18/2014
ib, some stops triggered but still below 1.2550, still chance to go down...
Paris ib 10:03:16 GMT - 11/18/2014
Stops triggered. That didn't take long. Now we get to see if Friday was a warning sign or a blip. I note Gold is up strongly again. Like on Friday. Something in the market is changing.
singapore td 10:01:18 GMT - 11/18/2014
be careful of what you wished for re. subdued things, ciaooo...
Paris ib 09:59:39 GMT - 11/18/2014
I'd say the chances that the 1.2520 buy stops DON'T get triggered are pretty slim. European stock markets all strongly positive. Draghi was supportive of the EuroZone economy yesterday - i.e. supportive of expansionary policy - and judging by the posts here the majority is still in favour of selling the Euro and short.
kl fs 09:57:36 GMT - 11/18/2014
yes shawn, i will be worried if gbpusd climbs to 1.5720 again and audusd stay above 0.8760, still sell on pops so far
kl shawn 09:54:49 GMT - 11/18/2014
i think so too fs, fading this early London's euro bid, adding 1.2512
at least audusd and gbpusd are subdued
kl fs 09:52:07 GMT - 11/18/2014
adding short euro here 1.2515, above 1.2540 then all bets are off
gc sf 09:12:16 GMT - 11/18/2014
Bot sold out of $yen @86
Range Bot sold some EUR @88
perth wtr 08:49:36 GMT - 11/18/2014
adding previous short euro now at 1.2492, last addition, stop all still the same above 1.2520, this last one is 1.2538 i think will do
makassar alimin 08:25:17 GMT - 11/18/2014
try sell some euro here as well while below 1.25
manila tom 07:43:53 GMT - 11/18/2014
short euro 1.2485, add 1.2520-1.2530 if get there, stop above 1.2560, target open
gc sf 03:57:06 GMT - 11/18/2014
we are just glued to 17300 level .. hopefully we get something moving here soon.
nw kw 02:49:00 GMT - 11/18/2014
defending eur/cad chart
gc sf 02:39:16 GMT - 11/18/2014
your right that when AUD + NZD are bid the xxx/jpy tends to do better
but you have to open a trade somewhere -- you can always adjust it later.
nw kw 02:33:47 GMT - 11/18/2014
compare aud/usa to eur/aud and eur/gbp strang eur strength this time day
gc sf 02:29:54 GMT - 11/18/2014
EUR
B/Out style trading bot sells @73
target 1.2349 + 1.2272 / s/l is above yesterdays high
these type of strategies have a lot more risk due to much wider stops etc
Nikkei basically on my CFD Provider seen 17250 - 17350 .. now 17290
gc sf 02:21:31 GMT - 11/18/2014
$YEN
my bot went long @454 not even sure it qualifies as a trade given the events of today
overall we know that when 116.20 holds the market remains in bullish position .. so I guess for immediate bullish phase that would be the level to be watching ... hold vs break.
kl shawn 02:07:16 GMT - 11/18/2014
selll euro 1.2473, agree with viies' 1.2380-1.2480 today, it clearly does not like 1.25
FW CS 01:34:24 GMT - 11/18/2014
Kl
not sure if it will get there today but jpy I think will see those levels soon.
kl fs 00:51:31 GMT - 11/18/2014
fw cs, usdjpy 118.50 and 120.20 sounds good?
FW CS 00:43:31 GMT - 11/18/2014
1.25, 1.2438, then 1.2390. Closes in eur below in increasing bearish order. So far 1.2438 holding on closing basis.
kl fs 00:34:32 GMT - 11/18/2014
short euro 1.2464, stop 1.2525, thanks for the heads up Perth WTR
perth wtr 00:30:57 GMT - 11/18/2014
ok let me take the plunge short euro 1,2462, adding near 1.25, stop all 1.2520, target 1.22-1.23
perth wtr 00:26:55 GMT - 11/18/2014
ok, so looks like we all agree to make money on short euro and buy usdjpy today
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