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kl fs  01:24:44 GMT - 11/19/2014  
so afterall euro can go down, not bad, still sell on rallies for me today

Mtl JP  17:44:36 GMT - 11/18/2014  
euro/chf low 1.2008
hear the timbers creak ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:26:14 GMT - 11/18/2014  
JN, see my earlier post about EUR crosses. So far it has not made a serious attempt at 1,2550 despite the cross demand.

Perhaps the SNB defense of 1.20 (EURCHF currently 1.2010) is creating some EURUSD demand as well.

Miami JN  16:55:04 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Does anyone know why the euro is bid today?

kl fs  16:16:22 GMT - 11/18/2014  
save the bullet, better levels tomorrow probably after fomc

Paris ib  16:14:17 GMT - 11/18/2014  
I wouldn't. :-)

kl shawn  16:12:44 GMT - 11/18/2014  
yes frustrating, no follow through though, just marginal new high, sell again?

Paris ib  16:03:13 GMT - 11/18/2014  
We're pretty close to the highs of the day in EUR/USD... more stops are likely above today's highs. You don't have to look far to guess where the stops are. We have levels published right on this forum. The market is still long USDs overall. This might be a move pushed by stops being triggered to start off with then we see what kind of follow on there is.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:55:42 GMT - 11/18/2014  
As I posted on GVI Forex

Either there have been big flows or it is a market that is caught the wrong way on EURGBP as the cross remains bid and testing .8000+ again.

Offsets out of this cross + EURJPY (146+) have put a bid under EURUSD

My point is the EUR buying is not mainly vs. the USD, which is the conduit for the cross flows

It would take a solid move through 1.2578 to get the retracement calls going.

perth wtr  15:18:09 GMT - 11/18/2014  
oh well, very frustrating this euro, should have closed earlier and reload
anyway, so long as high of the day is not breached...

Paris ib  14:36:10 GMT - 11/18/2014  
I wonder what the Japanese have to choose from in the way of politicians. Probably like the rest of us they have no real choice. Just a bunch of party apparatchiks going through the motions. Meanwhile taxes get levied, wages fall, wars are waged and the environment is destroyed.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

It tolls for thee.

perth wtr  14:10:55 GMT - 11/18/2014  
reload short euro 1.2525, as long as today's high intact....

Mtl JP  14:03:59 GMT - 11/18/2014  
the musical chair risk would be screetching sound of "He is not risking much with the vote." - GVI Forex 13:24

I suppose it ll depend on how easily the Japanese collective can or not be bamboozled and fickle Japanese politics can be this time around with Abe promising even harsher anti-deflationary medicine for Japanese people.

hk ab  13:38:58 GMT - 11/18/2014  
JP, we once experienced it in 1995 and 1998.... everyone knows the rule of the music chair......

Mtl JP  13:34:31 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Japan is sooo screwed ... if an earthquake wont sink it, numbnuts will

Stakes in gaming Japan will offer players either massive gain or massive losses. Ladies and gentlemen... chose your weapons and take your positions.

nw kw  13:29:36 GMT - 11/18/2014  
oil has the vote for pipe line looks like it will pass

Paris ib  13:28:10 GMT - 11/18/2014  
The election: "He did not give a date for the election, but the media consensus is that it will be on Sunday, December 14."

Japanese Parliament will be dissolved November 21. And we get to guess the likely election date. This is gonna be fun. Not a lot of clarity from Japan. :-)

TIC data to be released in the States right on market close. So unlikely to get much press.

Abe and the Election

nw kw  13:27:32 GMT - 11/18/2014 has+asked+the+Finance+Minister+ to+prepare+a+stimulus+plan&tbs=qdr:d

GVI Forex 13:24:06 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Opposition to Abe is in disarray. He is not risking much with the vote.

Mtl JP  13:20:56 GMT - 11/18/2014  
"I need to hear the voice of the people. I will step down if we fail to keep our majority because that would mean our Abenomics is rejected." - numbnuts Abe

In polls the Japanese collective currently supports him at 50%

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:15:59 GMT - 11/18/2014  
EURUSD tested 1.25 on Oct 3 vs. current bid 1.2511

USDJPY closed at 109.74 on that day vs. 116.58 current bid (+6.2%)

GVI Forex john   13:12:18 GMT - 11/18/2014  
fwiw- I heard somewhere, but I am not sure where that PM Abe has asked the Finance Minister to prepare a stimulus plan. Can anyone confirm?

kl fs  12:26:18 GMT - 11/18/2014  
tighten stop to BE, dont like if it is going above 1.2520 again

nw kw  12:24:00 GMT - 11/18/2014

kl fs  12:23:23 GMT - 11/18/2014  
come on! finally some life to our euro short!

nw kw  12:23:03 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Auto Sales in Europe Rise for 14th Consecutive Month

NY JM  12:00:20 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Look at EUR crosses (e.g. EURJPY, EURGBP) if you are looking for a reason why EURUSD is at 1.25xx and not making a run at 1.24.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:44:02 GMT - 11/18/2014  
I posted this on GVI Forex yesterday morning and it is now 8 out of 12 days and 3 days in a row that 1.25 has traded. It is also consistent with my week ahead outlook where I cited 1.24-1.26 as the range.

1.25 => has traded 7 out of 11 days in Nov. other days highs were 1.2470, 92, 98, 99

kl shawn  11:07:27 GMT - 11/18/2014  
fs, i am trying this one once more also short 1.2520, stop 1.2547 should suffice

kl fs  11:03:42 GMT - 11/18/2014  
got stopped out but reload short 1.25183, stop above today's high, then will reassess

singapore td  11:00:46 GMT - 11/18/2014  
good luck those under 1.25 and 0.87, see you in a few months time

gc sf  10:56:22 GMT - 11/18/2014  
hahaha no

Just $DEM was so much more fun/profitable.

This whole ECB and Draghi -- it is just like buying a $7 bottle of wine -- it is ok once or twice -- but in the long run you prefer something with more quality.

Paris ib  10:47:04 GMT - 11/18/2014  
sf - hahahaahahahhaha
You could be waiting a while though. :-)
Why do you say that anyway? You want more crosses to trade or you have some economic / political point of view there?

gc sf  10:45:11 GMT - 11/18/2014  
as for EUR .. the sooner the whole thing explodes and we get the $DEM back the better.

gc sf  10:40:51 GMT - 11/18/2014  
on my CFD says Nikkei 17300 - the level we traded hours and hours today

during that time $YEN traded 116.50-60

so we are just back to where it all started basically.

for Asia tomorrow depends on the closing price of today.

Paris ib  10:28:03 GMT - 11/18/2014  
red - 120? I've heard calls for 145 on this forum. Meanwhile Gold is up 1.46% today so if anything what's clear is the increased distrust in paper money. What floored me yesterday was the ECB official talking about the possibility of buying Gold, the point of which escapes me in terms of 'stimulation'.

ECB could buy Gold.

bali sja  10:21:56 GMT - 11/18/2014  
nervous belly buttons out there, just one fat finger rogue trader needed today?

london red  10:20:39 GMT - 11/18/2014  
travelling and arriving ib, fx 101. were going to 120/121 just not in one week.

Dar Es Salaam FM  10:19:27 GMT - 11/18/2014  
The effect of Abe talking saying that it will take 18 month to implement those selling tax and market react

bali sja  10:17:42 GMT - 11/18/2014  
ib, the most is SAR above the said level

nw kw  10:17:30 GMT - 11/18/2014  
red-is FTSE 100 leading and is there dividends in FTSE

Paris ib  10:16:22 GMT - 11/18/2014  
USD/JPY taking a belting. What's that about? Just USD selling emerging or is there more to it?

Paris ib  10:13:54 GMT - 11/18/2014  
sja - Sure there is always a two way market. There is this unspoken assumption out there that any new Japanese foreign stock market buying will all be headed to the U.S.. When the market is biased in it's assumptions it's a fair call to question those assumptions. I'm not saying we have hit bottom in the Euro. But I would be cautious on Euro bearishness. Euro is headed higher on all the important crosses today (up nearly a percent against the AUD)......

london red  10:13:52 GMT - 11/18/2014  
12439. past low. inverse shs until broken. eurgbp wkly trendline 8007 holding for now (7987 sup, below takes edge off move), keeping price action honest. a break there tgts lvls i mentioned yest. euro trendline 12492 again if below neutral.

bali sja  10:05:38 GMT - 11/18/2014  
ib, some stops triggered but still below 1.2550, still chance to go down...

Paris ib  10:03:16 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Stops triggered. That didn't take long. Now we get to see if Friday was a warning sign or a blip. I note Gold is up strongly again. Like on Friday. Something in the market is changing.

singapore td  10:01:18 GMT - 11/18/2014  
be careful of what you wished for re. subdued things, ciaooo...

Paris ib  09:59:39 GMT - 11/18/2014  
I'd say the chances that the 1.2520 buy stops DON'T get triggered are pretty slim. European stock markets all strongly positive. Draghi was supportive of the EuroZone economy yesterday - i.e. supportive of expansionary policy - and judging by the posts here the majority is still in favour of selling the Euro and short.

kl fs  09:57:36 GMT - 11/18/2014  
yes shawn, i will be worried if gbpusd climbs to 1.5720 again and audusd stay above 0.8760, still sell on pops so far

kl shawn  09:54:49 GMT - 11/18/2014  
i think so too fs, fading this early London's euro bid, adding 1.2512
at least audusd and gbpusd are subdued

kl fs  09:52:07 GMT - 11/18/2014  
adding short euro here 1.2515, above 1.2540 then all bets are off

gc sf  09:12:16 GMT - 11/18/2014  
Bot sold out of $yen @86

Range Bot sold some EUR @88

perth wtr  08:49:36 GMT - 11/18/2014  
adding previous short euro now at 1.2492, last addition, stop all still the same above 1.2520, this last one is 1.2538 i think will do

makassar alimin  08:25:17 GMT - 11/18/2014  
try sell some euro here as well while below 1.25

manila tom  07:43:53 GMT - 11/18/2014  
short euro 1.2485, add 1.2520-1.2530 if get there, stop above 1.2560, target open

gc sf  03:57:06 GMT - 11/18/2014  
we are just glued to 17300 level .. hopefully we get something moving here soon.

nw kw  02:49:00 GMT - 11/18/2014  
defending eur/cad chart

gc sf  02:39:16 GMT - 11/18/2014  
your right that when AUD + NZD are bid the xxx/jpy tends to do better

but you have to open a trade somewhere -- you can always adjust it later.

nw kw  02:33:47 GMT - 11/18/2014  
compare aud/usa to eur/aud and eur/gbp strang eur strength this time day

gc sf  02:29:54 GMT - 11/18/2014  

B/Out style trading bot sells @73

target 1.2349 + 1.2272 / s/l is above yesterdays high

these type of strategies have a lot more risk due to much wider stops etc

Nikkei basically on my CFD Provider seen 17250 - 17350 .. now 17290

gc sf  02:21:31 GMT - 11/18/2014  

my bot went long @454 not even sure it qualifies as a trade given the events of today

overall we know that when 116.20 holds the market remains in bullish position .. so I guess for immediate bullish phase that would be the level to be watching ... hold vs break.

kl shawn  02:07:16 GMT - 11/18/2014  
selll euro 1.2473, agree with viies' 1.2380-1.2480 today, it clearly does not like 1.25

FW CS  01:34:24 GMT - 11/18/2014  
not sure if it will get there today but jpy I think will see those levels soon.

kl fs  00:51:31 GMT - 11/18/2014  
fw cs, usdjpy 118.50 and 120.20 sounds good?

FW CS  00:43:31 GMT - 11/18/2014  
1.25, 1.2438, then 1.2390. Closes in eur below in increasing bearish order. So far 1.2438 holding on closing basis.

kl fs  00:34:32 GMT - 11/18/2014  
short euro 1.2464, stop 1.2525, thanks for the heads up Perth WTR

perth wtr  00:30:57 GMT - 11/18/2014  
ok let me take the plunge short euro 1,2462, adding near 1.25, stop all 1.2520, target 1.22-1.23

perth wtr  00:26:55 GMT - 11/18/2014  
ok, so looks like we all agree to make money on short euro and buy usdjpy today

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