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Mtl JP  11:59:42 GMT - 10/19/2018  
ib... looks like Reuters' Karen Brettell been reading our discussion

Rising U.S. bond yields pose risks to greenback - RTRS

luckily for the salary-woman, unlike u or me she does not have to worry about timing:

Day to day, higher yields are cited as boosting the U.S. dollar as capital flows into the country to seek out the higher rates. But that correlation does not hold up in the longer term, with higher yields instead being a drain on the currency.

Paris ib  14:13:51 GMT - 10/18/2018  
' That’s Trump-speak for “we want a weaker dollar.” '

Do they want a weaker dollar?

Livingston nh  14:03:21 GMT - 10/18/2018  
For nearly 40 years there has been a general misunderstanding of the nature and role of the US treasury market - when the 2 yr gets to 3% (December?) it will be barely at a positive yield so where is the potential for crisis?

In whatever model you use plug in the "debt" on the monetary side rather than the fiscal side

Paris ib  13:56:50 GMT - 10/18/2018  
JP tic toc indeed. Timing is everything. But into this explosive recipe we also have geo-politics and Trump. You couldn't make this up.

Another note from a doom and gloomer :-)

Mtl JP  13:49:24 GMT - 10/18/2018  
ib US structural debt and the timing of when players are going to take note of it (by charging more for their loans to munchkin) is a burning issue with me and, as I have noticed, also some bank players judging from their missives. tic toc

Paris ib  13:41:45 GMT - 10/18/2018  
2 year U.S. Government bond yields set to test (and break 3 percent). 'They' can dress this up as good news (growth, inflation, yada, yada, yada) but what it really means is that one of the most heavily indebted nations in the world will have to pony up MORE in interest rate payments going forward. The crux of the matter, as always, is: WILL the U.S.'s foreign creditors continue to hoover up all that Government paper.... of which there is more and more each year? Rolling over short term money (4 trillion a year) and relying on foreigners to keep lending you that money is NOT a given. There comes a point when you have pushed the envelope all the way. Are we there yet? No idea. :-)

Public Debt and Foreign Holders

Paris ib  13:21:32 GMT - 10/10/2018  
2 year yields in the U.S. are about to test the 3 percent level. That matters because most of the U.S. debt which is getting rolled EVERY year (about 4 trillion last time I looked, please correct me if I'm wrong) is very SHORT term in nature. The spike in short term yields (which ain't over) has added around 100 billion a year to the funding cost of the U.S.'s enormous Government Debt. What's 100 billion among friends. And right now the U.S. Government has 'friends' everywhere. NOT.

So we got a yield curve from the 2 to the 10 year area with yields at or just above or just under 3 percent. That's what's called a FLAT yield curve and it gives you an indication of where economic growth really is: FLAT LINING. Our little friends in the media are beating up every currency / economic / political crisis out there on the global stage in order to avoid anyone NOTICING what's going on. And what's going on is UGLY. Not yet debt spiral but certainly headed in that direction.

"interest is by far the fastest growing part of the budget"

Rising Interest: the fastest growing part of the budget

nw kw  20:27:56 GMT - 04/21/2018  
still usa hear in cad looking for used cars // bet manufacturing in drink. real usa den. reb. fight.

nw kw  20:20:10 GMT - 04/21/2018  
imf,,beking off soft poditivity for 3 years,,

crb in. up than

until robo drives prod. to grownd.

Paris ib  18:34:51 GMT - 04/21/2018  
U.S. Yields are going higher John. It was ominous that with the stock market taking a hit today yields did not come down. This is liquidation and despite all the people out there looking for a nice, neat straight line correlation between rising yields and a stronger dollar the medium term is likely to see a weaker dollar. Capital flight works that way. And it has very ugly consequences for the economy.

All those guys working hard to make the Trump Presidency a very difficult moment will see their dreams come true. And, yes, those guys are still morons. Determined morons.

GVI Trader john  13:42:33 GMT - 04/20/2018  
10-yr 2.940% key level 2.960%
DJ -40

Higher rates giving USD a boost

Mtl JP  12:10:12 GMT - 04/20/2018  
john 10:14 Iit is interesting that rise in yields should depend on equities when u.s. bonds are ~2x the size of equities
tail wagging the dog ... hmm

on global sale the ratio (and absolute numbers) are even bigger

london red  10:27:27 GMT - 04/20/2018  
10y needs to break 2.96 and stay abv 3% to avoid false break, then usd likely to move higher. how far depends on level of fallout in equities.
1.5 yards of 123 off today at cut

GVI Trader john  10:14:30 GMT - 04/20/2018  
ib- correct. U.S. yields suddenly are on the rise AGAIN. This time do they hold? I think it depends on equities. Fed seen as a sure shot to hike in June, but as we learned yesterday (BOE), sure shots are not what they used to be! You have to be agile these days.

Paris ib  09:51:45 GMT - 04/20/2018  
Paris ib 16:14:23 GMT - 11/15/2017
How long before the 2 year Treasury yields cracks 2 percent? Anyone care to guess?

Waiting for.... well everything to take a sharp turn for the worse in countries with high external debts (particularly where that debt is short term in nature and needs to be rolled over every 1-3 years), a chronic reliance on foreign capital and no longer term economic plan (which does not involve bombing, invading or otherwise plundering other countries). 2018 is gonna be interesting.


2 year Treasury Yield now at 2.43 percent and rising.

Remember U.S. Government debt has a very short average duration.

Rising short term yields hit hard and fast.

2 year Treasury Yield

AT Amazing Trader john bland  10:44:15 GMT - 01/11/2018  
Even if this story blows over, it has awakened investors in bonds to their risks and probably opened up the forex markets for us.

Mtl JP  10:39:43 GMT - 01/11/2018  
and also to market players about "cretins"
an appreciation for being or not "In The Circle"
and about cross correlations' time and depth sensitivity parameters

Paris ib  10:37:29 GMT - 01/11/2018  
This is going to be an interesting ping pong game. Trump, the negotiator, will no doubt be in his element.

Bloomberg doubles down

AT Amazing Trader john bland  10:31:44 GMT - 01/11/2018  
I don't doubt for a minute that the Bloomberg quotes yesterday were accurate. By denying the statements the government can say we never said that, but a clear message has been sent to Trump.

Paris ib  08:36:50 GMT - 01/11/2018  
"Bloomberg will have to come up with something different on the next slow news day."

Fake News

Paris ib  07:23:27 GMT - 01/11/2018  
You couldn't make this up. 'Fake News'.... calling this 'Fake News' is like endorsing Donald Trump indirectly.

Well played. :-)

Mtl JP  06:57:15 GMT - 01/11/2018  
and the So What is....
10yr 2.54% -0.016
Last Updated: Jan 11, 2018 1:52 a.m. EST

dc CB  04:17:53 GMT - 01/11/2018  
dc CB 18:11 GMT January 10, 2018
Bill Gross this Bill Gross that....All NUZ is Fake.
You've been punked. LOL
Less than 24 hours after Bloomberg headlines rang around the world proclaiming China would "slow purchases" of US Treasuries, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, SAFE, pushes back on the report, saying it is "fake news."

"Fake News"

dc CB  18:54:24 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Today in History
(as seen)


Israel Dil  18:31:43 GMT - 01/10/2018  

dc CB  18:25:26 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Earlier today, Bill Gross claimed that there is "recent evidence showing that China is liquidating treasuries." Well, we have yet to see where that evidence is - it certainly isn't on the Fed's custody holdings of Tsys which in December hit an all time high. And it certainly wasn't in the just concluded reopening auction of 9Y-10Month, where foreign demand was nothing short of stellar.

Bhat Bond Boycott: Foreign Demand In 10Y Auction Soars

dc CB  18:11:17 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Bill Gross this Bill Gross that....All NUZ is Fake.
You've been punked. LOL
Trump get's TWO Scoops of Ice Cream, Drinks water using TWO Hands. Alzheimers, he's Nutzo.

dc CB  18:08:26 GMT - 01/10/2018  
10Y High Yield 2.579%, WI 2.584%

‏ @zerohedge
2m2 minutes ago
So much for foreigners not buying TSYs: 10Y Indirects 71.4, highest since August 2016

AT Amazing Trader john bland  18:07:26 GMT - 01/10/2018  
10-yr 2.579%
bid to cover 2.69 vs 2.37


Paris ib  15:46:16 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Yeah I know John but it’s hard to take hype seriously these days. All we get is hype and more hype... bit of a joke already. :-)

AT Amazing Trader Jay Meisler  15:27:12 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Recent history has repeatedly told us that betting on a crisis getting out of control has been a losing bet. It would be nice to see some sustained volatility rather than these brief one shot moves.

AT Amazing Trader john bland  15:19:28 GMT - 01/10/2018  
ib- it only happens when you least expect it ;-)

Paris ib  15:15:55 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Armaggedon never quite gets here.

Livingston nh  14:58:38 GMT - 01/10/2018  
STOX decline slowing rise of bond yields - Armageddon postponed

AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:01:09 GMT - 01/10/2018  
10-yr 2.592% +5.4bp 10-yr yield holding higher heading into the official opening of equity trade in 30 mins.

Livingston nh  13:29:24 GMT - 01/10/2018  
re: China -- this is what happens when volatility is so low - market tries to make every wiggle a tsunami

less than 48 hours ago the USD/CNY popped higher - today it is down a bit - China is about balance - it sold US reserves in 2016 and bought them back thru Nov 2017 (~140 bio) - China diversifies for various reasons

The continuing trade surplus w/ US provides the underlying investment in Treasurys - China probably has a CAP on the % of reserves it holds - official Japan is a bit like that

US 10 yr still needs to show legs above 2.60 yield (12/2016 and 03/2017) -- see my posted chart from last week, as ECB continues QE the search for yield returns to the US market

gc dd  12:40:50 GMT - 01/10/2018  
or put another way - back then you took a risk - you got paid off nicely 5-10 big figures if not more sometimes ... now you stick your neck out and it is more likely to chopped up by low volatility range stuff.

gc dd  12:37:02 GMT - 01/10/2018  
AUD for the longest time traded 74-79 .. it was like .7570 and some news came out and it dropped to .7490 rallied back to .7610 then a couple days later was 72 on its way to 49

was at HSBC golf day when the call came through touched 72 cents which was big news really with everyone forecasting 80+

just another whole different era

could Trump do something like that - possible but you want to see more to justify betting that this is going to continue and not just be a couple days winding/unwinding

NY JM  12:26:17 GMT - 01/10/2018  
I was almost thrown out of a Broadway show years ago when I pulled out my portable quote machine with a big antenna just before the play began. This was before the days of terrorism. Now they would lock me up. Times have changed

london red  12:22:14 GMT - 01/10/2018  
got chucked out of so many seminars trying to get quotes from my broker. tws phone trading back then. but cme did give live futures prices online. fun trying to get that to work with a laptop and mobile phone. phone bill eye watering. but broker added service made it diff to lose money. all this is gone with online trading today. client starts dumb stays dumb.

gc dd  12:20:17 GMT - 01/10/2018  
EUR is stuck cant go up while usdchf wont go below .9750 .. probably have to wait for tomorrow for 1.2080 ... maybe one try towards 1.1960 sort of area

plus things like eurcad already up close to 100 pts

Mtl JP  12:16:53 GMT - 01/10/2018  
red 12:06 ... proof that what does not kill u makes u stronger ? *u^

london red  12:06:22 GMT - 01/10/2018  
i remember that. was at uni and trying to trade dmk gbp and chf thru all that.

gc dd  12:05:16 GMT - 01/10/2018  
totally different markets - no electronic markets in Asian Crisis and the top 3-4 Hedge Funds pushed the markets big time in currencies - you just don't see that anymore... 3-4 % a day.

Paris ib  11:58:44 GMT - 01/10/2018  
China is calling the shots on this one.

Finance moves way faster than trade.

China calls the shots

Paris ib  11:54:45 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Remember the Asian Crisis? The European Bond Market Crisis?

Well there is no reason that same fun scenario could play out in the United States. Is anyone in the U.S. actually aware of the risks?


kl fs  11:53:00 GMT - 01/10/2018  
time for the great reset also?

kl fs  11:52:02 GMT - 01/10/2018  
China the game changer and Trump
will China crash first or will Trump lose his pants first

Paris ib  11:50:43 GMT - 01/10/2018  
"The dollar, Treasuries and stock-index futures all declined early in the US morning on a report that China is considering trimming or halting its purchases of American government debt."

So what we got? Trump threatens sanctions and China threatens to unload Treasuries. And the Press is a bunch of rabid wolves.

Who didn't get THAT memo?

Paris ib  11:41:11 GMT - 01/10/2018  
Who is swimming naked?

Debtors with a short term roll over (ie short duration), countries with a large foreign debt...

Higher yields will NOT hit everyone equally.

Paris ib  11:09:42 GMT - 01/10/2018  
to be continued....

dc CB  15:55:43 GMT - 12/22/2017  


AT Amazing Trader john bland  14:55:33 GMT - 12/22/2017  
2.00%+ inevitable early in 2018.

Paris ib  14:47:34 GMT - 12/22/2017  
Looks like 2 year Treasury yields will crack 2 percent soon.

2 year yield

Paris ib  14:52:45 GMT - 11/17/2017  
Yields on 2 year Treasuries testing 1.72 percent and providing NO support for the USD. Now that's a surprise. NOT.

Mtl JP  15:34:05 GMT - 11/16/2017  
Re DEBT... and then there is debt.

Remebering that when YOU deposit money into a bank, YOUR deposit is a in the LIABILITIES column of the bank's book.

IF you are a schlepp like me (i.e NOT a member of european prince-hood) and have a european bank account fwiw and fyi:

‘covered deposits and claims under investor compensation schemes should be replaced by limited discretionary exemptions to be granted by the competent authority in order to retain a degree of flexibility.’ ... “…during a transitional period, depositors should have access to an appropriate amount of their covered deposits to cover the cost of living within five working days of a request.”

In other words... poof goes your 100,000 euro "deposit protection" scheme.


Nov 8 2017 ECB paper - pdf

Paris ib  10:50:22 GMT - 11/16/2017  
"Much of the Treasury’s debt is extremely short term, somewhat like the second example above. About one fourth of the face value of the debt will mature within the next 12 months, and about half within the next 36 months. About 70 per cent of the debt is due within five years."

This from 2014.... can't find more recent details. Would be interested to find out how much gets rolled every year and what the average duration is of debt held by the 'public'.

Either way what we are looking at is a relatively short term debt structure, especially when compared to other countries, and a massive amount to roll over every year.

Debt Structure in the U.S.

Paris ib  10:41:27 GMT - 11/16/2017  
2 year Treasuries breaking above 1.7 percent yield. For clarity this is the area where most of U.S. Treasuries gets rolled over.

U.S. debt details

Mtl JP  00:05:34 GMT - 11/16/2017  
Re DEBT... and then there is debt.
At a personal level - level that matters to me - the only thing about DEBT that matters is the associated RISK that I do not control:
political (lame confused bully duck prez) - geopolitical (looking for diversion thru war mongering) - economical (collapse) and financial (stox/bonds collapse and hyper-printing)

There is only one kind of insurance that appears reasonable to me the schlepp: Gold. And an investment in a homestead farm.

Livingston nh  22:47:21 GMT - 11/15/2017  
"annual percentage INCREASES"

as an aside folks might consider USD performance into 1985-86 and the return of $10 oil in 1986

Livingston nh  22:38:30 GMT - 11/15/2017  
Just for the record - the 10 yrs 1976 to 1985 had the biggest annual percentage in interest expense (only one yr single digit % and 3 over 20%)

The past 10 don't come close BUT if you think 2 yr Treasurys are going back to 15% then the next 10 yrs might be a problem

PAR 19:50:01 GMT - 11/15/2017  
Difficult to argue that US debt has been used to invest in infrastructure and productivity improvement . Has mostly been used to pay the costs of fighting perpetual wars ?

Paris ib  19:48:37 GMT - 11/15/2017  
Livingston you must have missed it: Obama DOUBLED the outstanding Government debt in the U.S., and that's just the past 8 years. Before that there was W and his wars and Cheney and war spending a go go. In addition in the meantime the world turned off the money taps. Now the debt is yours, it's huge and the cost of rolling it is RISING. But hey who cares...

PAR 19:42:38 GMT - 11/15/2017  
Trump .King of debt , planning to replace tax colleection by issuing a few $ trillions of new debt . What' s wrong with that . Trump and his friends get rich ,die and leave the fortunes tax free to their heires . USA is left with $ 25 trillion of public debt .

Well done American oligarchs .

Livingston nh  18:41:46 GMT - 11/15/2017  
11 years ago this week the yield curve was inverted and the 2yr was @ 4.80% -- 2%, no big deal

Israel Dil  17:22:51 GMT - 11/15/2017  
PAR 16:30

after noting the debt delegation in Venezuela leaving with bags full with Venezuelan chocolates, you must agree that the nonchalant Belgians regarding their debt know that their Belgian chocolate should get a better deal.

Paris ib  16:52:18 GMT - 11/15/2017  
JP there is debt and there is debt.

There is short term debt, which is subject to roll over problems, there is debt to finance consumption, which leaves you simply less well off in the future and there is debt to finance investment and productivity, which if done wisely can leave you better off in the future.

All this broad brush commentary on 'debt' is mostly just noise. You need to drill deeper. There can be a LOT wrong with the wrong kind of debt.

If you are a country with a large external debt which needs to be rolled over every 1-3 years then you as a country are in a very vulnerable position, particularly if you have a foreign policy approach which is not popular with the people who are kindly rolling over your debt.

Rising bond yields means: more sellers than buyers at currency prices.

China and the U.S.A.

Mtl JP  16:44:07 GMT - 11/15/2017  
PAR I have always maintained it is a prime pure shame to die with money in the bank. 40-50 years ago most europeans were scandalized at the american way of debt-financing of things (such as a house). In europe the method would be for newlyweds to live in a one room and would add on as cash financing would allow mindful of "When we hang the capitalists they will sell us the rope we use." - Stalin

Pray tell exactly WHAT IS wrong with indebtedness ?

Still too few as only

One in five American households have ‘zero or negative’ wealth

PAR 16:30:45 GMT - 11/15/2017  
Belgium combined debt . Government , companies and private person debt is 297% of GDP . Thank you Mario .

With low interest rates the only thing you can do is borrow , borrow and borrow . And that is what everybody is doing .

PAR 16:30:41 GMT - 11/15/2017  
Belgium combined debt . Government , companies and private person debt is 297% of GDP . Thank you Mario .

With low interest rates the only thing you can do is borrow , borrow and borrow . And that is what everybody is doing .

Paris ib  16:14:23 GMT - 11/15/2017  
How long before the 2 year Treasury yields cracks 2 percent? Anyone care to guess?

Waiting for.... well everything to take a sharp turn for the worse in countries with high external debts (particularly where that debt is short term in nature and needs to be rolled over every 1-3 years), a chronic reliance on foreign capital and no longer term economic plan (which does not involve bombing, invading or otherwise plundering other countries). 2018 is gonna be interesting.

Israel Dil  16:21:25 GMT - 11/14/2017  
jp - the Roy Moore effect... with some stupidity and madness dressing, in case you can't laugh with it. next >>> or stay around it and bite harder, ib hopefully released a good laugh about it

Mtl JP  16:16:41 GMT - 11/14/2017  
Dil 15:59 is that a display of condescending, sexist , misogynistic attitude ?

Israel Dil  16:14:26 GMT - 11/14/2017  
Blackrock chief stating that everyone in and around his/her 30's must have 100% of own capital in stocks. that doesn't need a rocket science from here, just patience.


Mtl JP  16:12:31 GMT - 11/14/2017  
nh on the other hand

Fed will hike interest rates three times next year, says winner of MarketWatch economic forecasting contest

Israel Dil  15:59:58 GMT - 11/14/2017  
wow ib hottie girl.... seems you moved to brain stimulating diet... well done girl :-)))

Livingston nh  15:56:59 GMT - 11/14/2017  
some bond market indicators are forecasting a Fed easing in a year -- Treasury is favoring more s/t term issuance // keep in mind the Twin Deficit and "crowding out" monsters under the bed NEVER materialized

Paris ib  15:52:48 GMT - 11/14/2017  
The only thing that matters is that the U.S. Government will now have to roll over its debt at a much higher funding cost than previously. 2 year yields are nudging 1.7 percent. THAT is gonna hurt. The debt is massive, it's growing and higher yields are NOT seeing money pour into the country. Everything else is just detail.

Paris ib  14:02:48 GMT - 10/06/2017  
Good grief, two year yields at 1.52 percent. Rolling that massive American Government debt just gets more and more expensive.

For now the USD bulls are loving it but IMVHO mistaking a bond market SELL OFF for a bullish U.S. signal is a mistake in the medium term. It will work for the short term but be cautious, especially if you fall in love with the trend. gl gt

PAR 10:31:07 GMT - 07/05/2017  
Fed minutes to point at more rate hikes and a program to reduce the FED s balance sheet . Normalization of monetary policy is good .

If one looks at the expansion of all government deficits all over the world one can argue that it was fiscal policy and not monetary policy which lead to the recovery whatever central bankers may claim .

Paris ib  10:12:14 GMT - 07/05/2017  
Getting out of Dodge.

2 year Treasury yields now at 1.41 percent and rising.

Paris ib  08:38:43 GMT - 06/28/2017  
The 2 year U.S. Yield looks frozen at the moment.

They say in the JGB market nothing trades at all any more. The only actor in the market is the BoJ and the rest of the market is completely frozen out. Yields don't change. Nothing moves. I'm beginning to think that can happen in the States. Until the damn bursts. This is so bizarre.

The Police State made manifest. A world where the authorities control everything. Well trying to anyhow..... what a bunch of weirdos.

Oh yeah

PAR 15:23:27 GMT - 06/27/2017  
Could the ECB Ponzi scheme be on the brink of collapse .

Ponzi s usually collapses when the head responsible is on holiday.
E.g. Sintra in Portugal.

Paris ib  14:55:45 GMT - 06/27/2017  
This is one take on where it will go:

"China, with its ghost cities and massive state-directed banking system. They explore Australia, Canada, and South Korea, as possible sources for the next financial crisis"

My take: the USA will be where it starts. The knock on effects will depend on how much the U.S. manages to export the problem.

They gave it a shot with the Greek crisis, I don't know what the candidates are now though. Australia looks scary. Canada looks fairly horrendous. We have a lot of possible options out there.

Steve Keen... blabbing a bit

dc CB  14:50:15 GMT - 06/27/2017  
"Yields are rising in the States and I can think of no real reason why this medium term trend will reverse"

Paris ib  14:48:00 GMT - 06/27/2017  
JP.... I love that 'It must stop'

An economic crisis is baked in. What we are watching for is how it develops. The print and forget moment in history is well past. Now it's time to deal with reality.

Mtl Jp  14:42:17 GMT - 06/27/2017  
It must stop / reverse. If it won't Yellen and gang risk causing an economic crisis. Again.

Paris ib  14:39:22 GMT - 06/27/2017  
1.40 IMVHO will be broken.... :-)

Paris ib  14:38:09 GMT - 06/27/2017  
red I think the trend is your friend on this one. Yields are rising in the States and I can think of no real reason why this medium term trend will reverse. My only question: how far will this go? And how much damage will it do? For now.... that's the trend. The damage we will work out when we get to the apex, where ever that may be.

london red  14:23:47 GMT - 06/27/2017  
1.40 to watch on the 2's
sup for euro 43/44/50 more by 11220

dc CB  14:19:09 GMT - 06/27/2017  
Auctions this week.
Yest the 2 went off with the Highest Bid to Cover - 3.03 -- since Nov 2015...yielded 1.348% against WI 1.354% = 0.6 bps.

Today the 5s go off at the same time Yellen' speaks
Tom 7's

Paris ib  14:08:05 GMT - 06/27/2017  
2 year U.S. Treasury yields now nearly 1.38 percent and rising.

The cost of funding that enormous debt keeps rising, and the interest bill just gets added on to the debt. Debt spiral anyone?

Don't believe the spin, this is NOT USD positive, this is a big, big problem. And while the U.S. media insists on destroying any lingering confidence in the current U.S. administration it can only get worse.

USD negative. And the U.S. Treasury market is the biggest bubble of all.

Get your popcorn people, this is going to be amazing. gl gt

Paris ib  07:55:31 GMT - 06/13/2017  
While America self-immolates the cost of funding that immense level of U.S. Government debt keeps rising. 2 year Treasury yields above 1.35 percent now. It's just a matter of time before they reach 1.4 percent. And at some point you get a debt spiral: the rising cost of funding adds considerably to the stock of existing debt (after all none of it ever gets actually PAID back - note to foreign holders of U.S. debt) and if the market really catches fright you get: Greece.

Trump has a PhD in debt management, so he better get onto this. Although the circus in Washington and in the U.S. Press is likely to make that difficult, if not impossible. It would appears that the people who lost the U.S. election don't care what happens to the U.S. as a whole. They are not the sort of people you can make a deal with or trust.

Good luck Donald, you are going to need it. USD positive? I don't think so.

More drama

Paris ib  18:17:34 GMT - 06/01/2017  
The rising cost of funding the HUGE U.S. Government debt is WHAT is going to get ugly. I don't see a massive rush to fund the U.S. when the U.S. press is busy denigrating the sitting President and his entire administration. THAT is ugly. The funding mess will be UGLIER.

dc CB  18:13:05 GMT - 06/01/2017  
What are you talking about.
this looks ugly?

Haifa ac  17:30:52 GMT - 06/01/2017  

AHHHH the memories of the chalice:

Hawkins: I’ve got it! I’ve got it! The pellet with the poison’s in the vessel with the pestle; the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true! Right?
Griselda: Right, but there’s been a change. They broke the chalice from the palace.
Hawkins: They broke the chalice from the palace?!
Griselda: And replaced it with a flagon.
Hawkins: A flagon?
Griselda: With the figure of a dragon.
Hawkins: Flagon with a dragon.
Griselda: Right.
Hawkins: But did you put the pellet with the poison in the vessel with the pestle?
Griselda: No! The pellet with the poison’s in the flagon with the dragon! The vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true!
Hawkins: The pellet with the poison’s in the flagon with the dragon; the vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true.
Griselda: Just remember that.

Paris ib  16:57:53 GMT - 06/01/2017  
Trump's poisoned chalice... 2 year U.S. Treasury yields back above 1.3 percent. This is going to get ugly. The attack dogs keep going, undermining whatever international credibility the U.S. might still have had. Ugly stuff.

Meanwhile: everyone seems to agree that the EUR/USD needs to go higher. Not that the permabears have noticed.

"Both Trump and Merkel, moreover, say they want the Euro to strengthen against the US dollar."

The USD in the Trump Era

Paris ib  09:04:42 GMT - 05/11/2017  
The U.S. Treasury market is the CRUCIAL global market to watch. If it continues to lose ground this is NOT good news for the United States. Watch that. Everything else is noise.

The debt bomb

Israel Dil  13:41:51 GMT - 05/10/2017  
looking at all that, I see money gods play monopoly in virtual reality and somehow the overwhelming majority is certain it's reality. Paper money pays interest over paper money. seems that is going to last forever, so why to bother about that?

Paris ib  13:33:45 GMT - 05/10/2017  
Cost of funding the U.S. Government debt just keeps rising. 2 year bond yields now at 1.34 percent or thereabouts. This is the key market to keep an eye on. The pundits talk about how this cratering market is attracting funds - funds I guess that want to lose money on a falling asset. So speculative USD buying takes place but it's not real capital inflows. Remember that.

Livingston nh  11:45:19 GMT - 05/04/2017  
ib- Rather than my normal RANT response to your concerns about the fiscal conditions in the US (a default on Treasurys?) and oft repeated demise of the USD my early morning brief included this short narrative in the FT LINK --- it doesn't include my favorite "Gov debt is just currency with a coupon" but does offer the following ..."Government debt isn’t supposed to be paid off! People buy sovereign bonds because they want to store wealth in something that does well when the rest of the economy does badly. One of the central problems of the past few decades has been the stubborn refusal of certain governments, including America’s, to accommodate this desire, suppressing real interest rates and encouraging the unscrupulous to create imperfect substitutes for safe debt. Rattner doesn’t seem to think banks should “pay off” their deposit obligations and liquidate themselves. So why should the government?" -- the article is timely for the current and much to be hoped for future state of fiscal policy (taxes) in the US -- perhaps even my argument that the FED's monetary policy has been tight because of the HOARDING of Treasurys

Paris ib  07:46:10 GMT - 05/04/2017  
Meanwhile back on the farm.... U.S. bond yields are rising again. 2 year Treasuries back above 1.3 percent, not quite the peak seen in March but... the trend is your friend. And while all the pundits will tell you this means the USD is a buy (because you know if an asset is falling in price - and Treasuries are falling in price - then it's a buy.... EVENTUALLY) what it is really telling you is that the funding for U.S. Government debt is getting more expensive and that is a problem when you have a huge debt, a deficit and your rely on overseas funding.

In this environment the media is intent on trying to destroy confidence in the Trump Administration. Talk about an own goal.

Implications for the USD? Not good.

That debt

Israel Dil  17:30:39 GMT - 03/08/2017  
hey ib girl, happy woman's day!!! ;-)

Paris ib  17:26:35 GMT - 03/08/2017  
Surreal how the ongoing bond market sell off is being ignored by the markets. At some point though higher interest rates will start showing up in the economic data. Wadda we got? 6 months? 3 months? till it starts impacting economic data.

2 year U.S. Treasury yields now 1.37 percent. Boom.

Mtl JP  15:32:11 GMT - 03/02/2017  
dc CB lets see janet's FED gang dis-appoint the near certain market next.
Communication is one of the few "credibility assets" the FED has to peddle.

Mtl JP  15:23:54 GMT - 03/02/2017  
nh 15:08 any janet-induced dip in the dollar is a BoD opp

Mtl JP  15:19:21 GMT - 03/02/2017  
How out of touch are these people?

Exactly and precisely just the right amount so that you and I an get rich off them - their primary raison d'etre of their existence.

Latest example: Brainard. hallelu-yeaaahh!

Paris ib  15:13:17 GMT - 03/02/2017  
The Fed is always surprised by the market reaction. How out of touch are these people?

Livingston nh  15:08:46 GMT - 03/02/2017  
Seems that the Fed was surprised by the reaction to the Minutes last week -- on Tuesday b4 Minutes rates were higher than last Friday // Yellen may want to inject a bit of Uncertainty

Israel Dil  14:59:45 GMT - 03/02/2017  
who's gonna fill the gap?
the masses left stocks 65% lower, they are not coming back when LePen is stripped of her immunity by the EU.

so doesn't MATTER how you look at it, you see the same, CRASH!

EU is dying while Sweden recalls mandatory army service for the youths (reading the small letters may assure that they are nuts) ;-)

dc CB  14:52:59 GMT - 03/02/2017  
March hike odds now 90%

5ver went from 1.8 friday's close to 2.02 this morning

Paris ib  14:44:27 GMT - 03/02/2017  
If the entire world starts hiking... what then?

"The ECB will reduce... quantitative easing from €80bn to €60bn a month from April, with purchases set to continue until the end ..year."

It's gonna be interesting.

ECB: the next move is up?

Paris ib  14:40:49 GMT - 03/02/2017  
2 year U.S. yields now above 1.3 percent. Target? 2 percent? More?

AUD taking a hit. A higher interest rate economy is going to hit the high-debt Australian economy hard.

The debt bubble

dc CB  19:45:17 GMT - 03/01/2017  
quite a move/change of heart since friday afternoon.

Paris ib  17:05:28 GMT - 03/01/2017  
PAR negative rates are crazy, we know that. Just looking German Government bond rates still negative out to EIGHT years. Seriously. What will be interesting is the readjustment period. The impact will be different in different countries......

PAR 17:03:13 GMT - 03/01/2017  
If FED hikes ECB will have to follow and get rid of negative rates which will be a huge plus for European banks . Italian banks shooting up like NPL's don t exist .

In current environment ECB negative rates look crazy .

Paris ib  17:00:26 GMT - 03/01/2017  
If the 10 year goes to 3 percent, which now seems possible, what then? When does the market 'care' about this?

Paris ib  16:56:46 GMT - 03/01/2017  
Seems a bit exaggerated. Market is freaking out quietly.... too weird.

Livingston nh  16:48:26 GMT - 03/01/2017  
2 yr is backing off (1.27) big moves Mon and Tues -- 10 yr same as it was first day of 2017 // it's nothing

PAR 16:43:10 GMT - 03/01/2017  
Fed speak . The " Dudley" rally in world bank shares .

Paris ib  16:12:44 GMT - 03/01/2017  
Two year Treasury yields are hitting 1.3 percent. While the trend is your friend and all that, what is the news that would see this massive spike in U.S. yields today? What did I miss?

Paris ib  19:00:49 GMT - 09/01/2015  
While stocks see ongoing weakness there has NOT been a commensurate increase in bond buying. 2 year Treasury yields are still above 0.70 percent and 3 year yields are above 1 percent. This is not good news. The U.S. rolls most of its debt in the 1 to 2 year area. And it has a lot of debt to roll. 4 trillion rolls every year. Higher yields at the short end go right to the bottom line. One more reason for Yellen NOT to hike in September. Though I note the ongoing USD bullish sentiment on this forum and in the press. The logic is flawed. The USD remains at risk.

Paris ib  19:07:25 GMT - 03/25/2015  
U.S. Treasuries selling off even as the U.S. (and other) stock markets takes a hit. Not good news. The usual positive Yellen impact (post FOMC) on bonds is wearing off again. Same old, same old. All up bad news for the USD. What do we have? Bad economic data. A struggling stock market. A failure to rally on the bond market and a USD index which is coming off its multi-year high. Oh and then there is all this weird background geo-political stuff going on. Black swans line up.

Mtl JP  20:48:36 GMT - 03/06/2015  
with stox off only approx 1.5-1.7%, still very very far from a Babson moment , also far from shellshock

Paris ib  20:39:57 GMT - 03/06/2015  
The U.S. funds itself in the 2 to 3 year area of the yield curve, when it is not issuing paper of a year's duration or less. 2 year yields have tripled since early 2011. OK they are still low but what has happened to total U.S. government debt in that time? It has increased by over 30 percent. Taken together that is not good.

U.S. Government debt

dc CB  20:34:02 GMT - 03/06/2015  
10y yields are still pretty low

the auctions next week will be interesting.

I really thought that the BLS would put out a poor number today, given all the layoff anncments that came during earning reports and the cut backs in the energy sector.

The next FMOC, coming in the 1st quarter QuadWitching week and the Spring Equinox ( for GANN traders) and APPL joining the DOW....should be one wild week.

Paris ib  20:29:02 GMT - 03/06/2015  
JP I had a catholic education. I kinda like the idea of living in a functional society with happy people in it. Not shell shocked desperados. But hey that's just me. :-)

Mtl JP  20:18:54 GMT - 03/06/2015  
ib 19:54 / what is ugly about "a collapse of bonds and stocks more or less at the same time" pray tell ? To me that sounds like that one multi-decade trade opportunity to get filthy rich. And something to get excited about - and if you are right , and I am right, and we both get filthy rich, we could combine our filth, buy a 747, u pilot and I serve the drinks as we plan our next destination.
What would you like in your juice ?

Paris ib  19:54:03 GMT - 03/06/2015  
3 year Treasury yield at 1.14 percent and looking ugly. Stocks don't like it, neither will the economy. Failed policy all round. We could very well have a collapse of bonds and stocks more or less at the same time. After all the rally was across the board. Central Banks take a bow. You idiots.

Paris ib  13:46:29 GMT - 03/06/2015  
Stocks are not liking this. At least in the U.S.

Paris ib  13:36:25 GMT - 03/06/2015  
3 year Treasury yields hit 1.10% following the employment report. The talk is going to be monetary policy tightening with all the implications that has. DAX through the roof on the weaker Euro.... all those exports driving the German economy higher.

The Rouble is killing it. What's not to love? Very high short term rates, a trade surplus, almost no government debt and repatriation of funds held overseas.

Paris ib  08:42:55 GMT - 03/04/2015  
Japanese bond yields continue to creep higher after reaching a record low at the start of the year. This yield creep in all Government bond markets needs to be monitored. Government bonds are in the largest bubble.... should it burst then head for the hills.

U.S. 3 year yield at 1.06 percent this morning.

Japanese Yields

Paris ib  20:50:01 GMT - 03/03/2015  
The Anglo-American corporate regime. Backed by guns. Prototype: Honduras in its Banana Republic phase.

Mtl JP  20:45:16 GMT - 03/03/2015  
well that is a good qtn.
essept I am not sure which regime is failing u r asking about

Paris ib  20:36:49 GMT - 03/03/2015  
JP - depends. The regime is failing. Wadda they gonna do? Blow up or occupy the entire world?

New World Order

Mtl JP  20:32:23 GMT - 03/03/2015  
but so-far nothing serious enough to seriously affect the perpetrators's own, personal skin.

Paris ib  20:29:28 GMT - 03/03/2015  
JP - we got sanctions and bombs and aiding and abetting coups, there are wars of aggression in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya... the pivot to Asia.

Paris ib  20:27:52 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Yeah? What's the new theory then? Print your own? Stuff your pockets with leaves? Bit too 'Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy' for me.

Livingston nh  20:23:59 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Don't bang the drum about the need for foreign capital flows -- that is OLD econ theory // that is gold based (widgets like the EUR)

Centuries ago China grew w/o any foreign capital

The US grew with very high import tariffs

There are NO absolutes in economics - its not physics

Mtl JP  20:23:36 GMT - 03/03/2015  
economic / trade / financial sanctions ... are those versions of "military aggression" ?

Paris ib  20:18:12 GMT - 03/03/2015  
If government debt markets in the Western world enter a bear market then the possibility of fiscal stimulus is zero. Economic conditions deteriorate. Countries dependent on other people's money will be forced to pay a premium to borrow. I think the Anglo-Saxon model (external deficits in trade and capital) is entering a terminal phase, hence the military aggression: attempting to enforce a dying international regime.

Livingston nh  20:16:21 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Government Bonds ARE currency with a coupon - so money = money // FIAT money is different than widget based money

Livingston nh  20:14:15 GMT - 03/03/2015  
Currency and the theory of relativity - buttons in what country -- if interest rates are zero everywhere then all currencies are at parity? // size matters

Paris ib  20:10:23 GMT - 03/03/2015  
All the other bubbles are dependent on the Government Bond market bubble. That goes, it all goes.

Paris ib  20:09:01 GMT - 03/03/2015  
OK fine you could end up getting your 'money' back and being able to buy a couple of buttons with it. In the end purchasing power is what counts. We are entering crazy times with mad men in the control room. 3 year treasury yield at 1.08 percent and rising. And if you are looking for 'bubbles' the biggest and craziest bubble is in government debt.

Livingston nh  20:00:49 GMT - 03/03/2015  
You are using 19th century widget based economics - fiat based debt will always be "paid back" - a USD bond will be redeemed in USD - its purchasing power is another story //CBs are encouraging inflation - as always buy fixed income at your peril

Paris ib  19:54:12 GMT - 03/03/2015  
3 year U.S. Treasury yields now at 1.07 percent and rising. Japanese yields have been rising.... just as we were all getting comfortable with the idea of negative yields and an endless bull market in Government bonds (you know those instruments which represent a debt which can NEVER be paid back and just needs to be endlessly rolled over). German government bond yields are still negative out to six years... but yields are backing up.

Paris ib  17:14:58 GMT - 03/02/2015  
The 'Yellen impact' lasted a couple of days and now it's back to selling U.S. Treasuries. This is more important than the 'narrative' would have you believe. Higher bond yields mean more seller than buyers on the U.S. Treasury market. I continue to believe that geopolitics plays a role here and IMVHO it means that aggressive U.S. geopolitical strategies are impacting the willingness of foreigners to stump up the cash to finance the U.S. Government. Which is the same as saying foreigners are not so keen holding USDs as an international reserve currency.

Paris ib  18:30:23 GMT - 02/26/2015  
Bond yields creeping higher in the U.S., the Yellen impact is fading.

Paris ib  16:26:21 GMT - 02/26/2015  
Negative bond yields in Germany and the prospect of QE has not helped the U.S. bond market any today. Neither has the rally in the USD.

GVI Forex john   14:48:31 GMT - 02/26/2015  
I have the 10-yr bund at 0.277% -3.3bp.
ECB starts QE in March.

EURUSD starting to get set up?

Paris ib  14:35:42 GMT - 02/26/2015  
3 years above 1 percent again. Is this even a tradeable market at this stage? What we have is ping pong.

Paris ib  14:11:24 GMT - 02/26/2015  
3 year Treasury yields testing 1 percent again. It will be interesting to see if the 'Yellen effect' wears off shortly. What normally happens is that Yellen comes out and makes all these soothing noises, the bond market reacts for a few days and then it's back to off loading bonds in the run up to an expected policy tightening.

Paris ib  19:59:45 GMT - 02/20/2015  
3 year yield back well above 1 percent. Now at 1.07 percent. Back to the avalanche?

Paris ib  10:32:19 GMT - 02/19/2015  
3 year Treasury yields back above 1%.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  20:37:35 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Her name is Mester

gc sf  20:22:00 GMT - 02/17/2015  
I'm just posting the comments I see - as I don't see them on GV since I logged in -- whether I agree with them or not.

Yesterday another Fed person - Female said same thing -- she expected a rise in June - ... I apologize I can't find her name right at this minute but if I find it will add that as well.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  20:17:47 GMT - 02/17/2015  
gc, remember the source. Plosser is an outgoing hawk on an FOMC filled mostly with doves.

GVI Forex john   20:16:05 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Plosser is a prema-hawk and a non-voter.

HK [email protected]  20:11:48 GMT - 02/17/2015  

Plosser talks down bonds.

In this situation where people have no money, and US econ. struggles, doubt if any hike soon to come.

HK [email protected]  20:09:17 GMT - 02/17/2015  

Can we see the bond market avalanche, as another form of QE, or an all purpose liquidity injection, where investors will prefer to pull out their money out of declining bonds, and place it in business or S. market?

Still suspect the Fed may be behind it.

gc sf  20:06:03 GMT - 02/17/2015  
here is another one ..

Fed should be really close to raising rates - Plosser

* 1.00-1.50% Fed funds rate at the end of 2015 is 'reasonable'
* FOMC's 'patient' language will be difficult to exit
* Fed should be really close to raising rates

gc sf  20:03:32 GMT - 02/17/2015  
yesterday one of the Fed Speakers was saying that would be for a June Hike

GVI Forex john   19:34:56 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Fair question. Given the dovish bias of all the voting members this year, I'm not sure why they would be selling.

Its conceivable that the central bank might want to nudge the normalization process, but they haven't even been discussing it.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  19:34:21 GMT - 02/17/2015  
RF. Highly doubtful.

HK [email protected]  19:29:04 GMT - 02/17/2015  

john 19:05

Is there any possibility the Fed is causing that avalanche by selling into the market?

GVI Forex john   19:21:16 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Actually rising bond yields could be supportive of stocks if the markets feel they are higher on expectations of a stronger U.S. economy. They can't currently be concerned about inflation.

Personally I think U.S. data have been turning mixed, but the markets apparently are not seeing what I see.

GVI Forex john   19:05:26 GMT - 02/17/2015  
RF- higher yields COULD mean that rates are simply "normalizing" to levels where traditionally they SHOULD be. There is a ton of paper out there that has to be absorbed. I don't see how the Fed makes money if it marks it s portfolio to market?

HK [email protected]  18:55:21 GMT - 02/17/2015  

Higher yields means that: The Fed, is going to make a big money if/when the S.Market will go into a correction sooner or later.
Bonds is where the exiting correction money will go.

Just don't believe for the time about coming interest rate rise.

Paris ib  18:41:14 GMT - 02/17/2015  
JM - well you came to the right place. :-)

Paris ib  18:38:46 GMT - 02/17/2015  
JM - weaker Treasury prices means selling in the Treasury market. Higher yields means that. There is no necessary correlation with the USD unless foreign sellers are involved.

NY JM  17:46:21 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Ib weaker US treasuries does not necessarily mean selling dollars. It could also reflect reallocation of asset mix. I love a good debate.

Paris ib  16:52:38 GMT - 02/17/2015  
Jay you can repeat the mantra but it doesn't make it so. Rising bond yields indicate selling of bonds. Now if this is related to a stronger economy, well and good. But you still have to identify how the stronger economy is going to impact the currency. Better trade performance? OK a positive. Not the case in the U.S., stronger demand if anything is likely to see a higher trade deficit (and it has). So capital inflows attracted to some investment opportunity? OK fine. Where are these potential capital inflows likely to go in this case if the U.S. is indeed seeing a better economic outlook?

Case in point today: weak data did not see bonds in the U.S. rally. So we have two negatives: weak data and selling on the bond market.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:48:36 GMT - 02/17/2015  
As I said if bond yields rise because of capital flight it is a negative for a currency. If they rise because of a better economy it is a positive.

Otherwise, if shorter term differentials widen then it is a positive.

Paris ib  16:18:43 GMT - 02/17/2015  
kw - fixed income is the bond market. The U.S. bond market is seeing selling pressure. You buy, you lose money. Until yields start falling.

Paris ib  16:17:22 GMT - 02/17/2015  
3 year U.S. yields haven't been this high since early 2011. The cost of refinancing all that debt is getting higher. This is not positive.

Check the monthly chart

nw kw  16:16:49 GMT - 02/17/2015  
bnn. moving in to fixed income

Paris ib  16:13:43 GMT - 02/17/2015  
JM - Back to my Feb 12 reply to you (which you may have missed):

You don't buy an economy you buy a currency.

A currency can only rise because you have strong capital inflows or a positive trade performance. Speculators can push you around some but the longer term trends are determined by actual real money buying or selling a currency. No-one buys USDs because the bond market is on the slide. And if a stronger economy is likely to encourage capital inflows then you have to identify where those inflows are likely to go. Stocks? Real Estate?..... So the bond market slide remains a negative and you have to find the positive story. Which I haven't at this stage.

Paris ib  08:57:40 GMT - 02/12/2015  
NY JM 17:26 GMT February 11, 2015
Bond Market Avalanche: Reply
ib not unless it reflects a stronger economy and expectations of rate hikes.

I had a think about this. I remain of the view that expectations of a stronger economy and rate hikes are NOT likely to do more than encourage speculative plays. Unless the U.S. moves rates to say 3 percent at the short end (and really murders the bond market) I don't see 'expectations of a strong economy' as USD bullish per se. You don't buy an economy you buy a currency. A currency can only rise because you have strong capital inflows or a positive trade performance. Speculators can push you around some but the longer term trends are determined by actual real money buying or selling a currency. No-one buys USDs because the bond market is on the slide. And if a stronger economy is likely to encourage capital inflows then you have to identify where those inflows are likely to go. Stocks? Real Estate?..... So the bond market slide remains a negative and you have to find the positive story. Which I haven't at this stage.

NY JM  18:16:33 GMT - 02/11/2015  
Fed. Is never going to sell its bonds, only let them roll off IMHO

Livingston nh  17:58:42 GMT - 02/11/2015  
What lurks beneath? -- SPX just broke below the 15 min 21ma that it walked up all morning -- yesterday's opening gap at 2045 and depending on your crayon's thickness last week's gap ~ 2040 was either filled or not // the 10 yr auction has built in fair concession over the past few days so now we see if it tails -- there has been little comparable movement in the 2 yr as the debate over the Fed move wanders off into Wonderland // flight to safety may govern the treasurys (Ukraine and Greece tape bombs) for a few days but the BIG deal remains ECB QE next month and the Fed (esp. Yellen to Congress) as the Tea Leaf readers pounce

The Fed Balance Sheet is so top heavy over 10 yrs that it may panic as it tries (needs) to buy more short paper - it may need to go back into the commercial paper business if it continues with its "do-gooder" regs // surprising that some Fed folks don't get the movement in 10 yrs given the lock-up of long treasurys in the vault -- think about inversion if they panic before they pushed part of their portfolio into the market

HK [email protected]  17:28:57 GMT - 02/11/2015  

Nice Bond-yields a place to go when/if the St.Mkt will be hit.

NY JM  17:26:37 GMT - 02/11/2015  
ib not unless it reflects a stronger economy and expectations of rate hikes.

Paris ib  17:11:24 GMT - 02/11/2015  
A sell off on Treasuries is not supportive unless you take the view that it is OVER and Treasuries will now rally. Otherwise all you are doing is buying an asset that is going down in price. Which is not supportive. Capital inflows are not going to be attracted to a sliding market.

NY JM  17:07:51 GMT - 02/11/2015  
Higher US yields (10 yr above 2%) supporting USD

Paris ib  15:43:42 GMT - 02/11/2015  
red - I don't know if yields can break up through key levels yet. It could be yet another false move. My view is that the economy is weak and the 'risk', as always, lies in geopolitics and the flow of international funds. It seems to me that we have moved away from the day when bond yields just reflected domestic inflation and economic growth prospects. And there is so much geopolitical 'noise' around at the moment and so much to disrupt international capital flows that extreme caution is warranted. The U.S. bond market has failed to benefit from a stronger USD. That is not a good look. Something has to give.

london red  15:38:03 GMT - 02/11/2015  
paris, march 10 resting on dec 16/2014 high. been below but not closed under. nxt marker for me. if they can stay under 128.75 then double top in play for 126 handle. purely tech, so something is bound to go wrong during, has done so for best part of 10 year bull mkt. maybe retail sales will come in weak, there has been some hinting to it. or maybe it will be that easy a ride.

Paris ib  15:31:40 GMT - 02/11/2015  
It's Wednesday. The bond market avalanche started Friday in the States and the selling on the U.S. Treasury market has not abated.

dc CB  21:31:54 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Brian williams is the current Jesus...the media show
Crucify Him
No No he's such a nice guy.
and his daughter... a star on a slut....but she was Great as Peter Pan in the Live NBC broadcast
is he a drinker? maybe he takes the "pipe"

But here below presented the editorial pic of the week.

Wm Banzi7 Nails it.

Mtl JP  21:23:13 GMT - 02/06/2015  
dc CB 20:40 - that story is
1) old,
2) has the Brian Williams smell
(I shudder, shrivel and shrink to think the turkey is Canadian-born)

dc CB  20:40:19 GMT - 02/06/2015  
if it crashes and you log on and find your account balance at zero...It was the Ruskie Spies that stole yr money...Dammm Ruskies.

Ruskie Spies on Wall Street "they want what you have"

Paris ib  20:09:20 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Higher and higher yields....... not a good look.

london red  18:25:05 GMT - 02/06/2015  
CB i dont mind which way it goes, as long as it goes. as long as data continues as such, all relevant mkts will re-price in the hike (cos we priced it in then out lol) in their own way be in st spike term or lt strung out.

Paris ib  18:18:22 GMT - 02/06/2015  
CB - I just think bonds are the canary in the coal mine, that's all. :-)

Paris ib  18:17:44 GMT - 02/06/2015  
U.S. stocks and margin debt. This could be interesting. The powers-that-be now have nowhere to go but up with interest rates - monetary policy gets tigher from here - come what may, there is no more room for fiscal stimulus, global trade has pretty much died....

Margin Debt

dc CB  18:16:54 GMT - 02/06/2015  
OK then the Dow will only be UP 800pts on the week.
geeeshh you guys are never satisfied.:))

Paris ib  18:13:50 GMT - 02/06/2015  
red - and then? Is it on to sell the rally across the board in global stock markets? European markets look to have topped. Hard to say on the Nikkei - a possible. And if the U.S. turns over we have a full house.

london red  18:12:02 GMT - 02/06/2015  
yep march 10 done double top neck with some big downside now (2 figs) and st looks like it has an appointment with dec of last yr high, thats still half a point lower. stocks have held up surprising well but looks like hammer approaches into the close.

Paris ib  18:07:28 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Went out, came back... the avalanche gets worse. Snowflake theory of financial markets....

dc CB  16:49:36 GMT - 02/06/2015  
looking like a 1000pt Dow for the week. Yen is leading the way to Nirvana

think what CNBC would be like right now if this was a NEG 1000pt week.

Paris ib  16:18:21 GMT - 02/06/2015  
CB - if they can get away with stealth QE I don't suppose they care what rate it goes off at.

dc CB  16:17:13 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Weds 10Y auction may well go off at more than 2%

Paris ib  16:11:28 GMT - 02/06/2015  
Those NFP numbers certainly triggered an avalanche in the U.S. Treasury market. I guess they figure the main game is keeping the USD bid and they can come in and support bonds at a later date (QE by stealth of Belgium or whatever works). Still it looks like a bit of dangerous game to me. 2 and 3 year bond yields are getting murdered. If they ever do hike (I think they talk and talk and talk and delay the evil day) then the U.S. Treasury market is doomed.

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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