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Paris ib  11:05:22 GMT - 01/10/2018  
"if the USD/JPY is anything to go by (and I believe it is) we have symptoms of capital flight. Just the start but that's why USD/JPY is the canary and not the full blown mine collapse"

The full blown mine collapse happens when foreign investors exit U.S. debt instruments. That's where the risk lies and with the U.S. blowing itself up over the Trump Presidency THAT risk gets bigger.

F.T. Report

Livingston nh  21:43:12 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Let me clarify Fed panic - it can come from inflation, or their economist peers yakking about them or even the market, if it ever gets a clue

This election means Trump or Clinton and Yellen unlikely to be reappointed if the First Term recession rule stands -- Clinton w/ a very hostile Republican Congress means Yellen is toast

Livingston nh  21:29:22 GMT - 08/16/2016  
JP - 95 could be done - my problem is that the Fed always panics -- once there is a whiff of that the folks who are buying NIRP jgbs are gonna dump because otherwise they get to be roadkill

The BoJ is out of the picture unless it subsidizes Saver accounts w/ banks - and FISCAL policy is WHAT?

The Yen is a Hostage to the Fed - and the Fed ALWAYS panics

I have no more yen positions until something changes

Mtl JP  21:17:43 GMT - 08/16/2016  
nh 18:25 here is dlryen Fibonacci making a suggestion
(it is also making fun of and tickling the two main japanese numbnuts)

Livingston nh  18:25:03 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Japanese investors are putting money in US treasurys as part of their desperate outflow from domestic market as they get both yield and currency appreciation

Someday BoJ may realize higher rates will keep MONEY home and drive foreign investors out -- PAY the Savers in a Savings based economy and you will get a weaker YEN

Paris ib  18:16:17 GMT - 08/16/2016  
"$54.56 billion in U.S. Treasurys mature in August. The Treasury is also on the hook for $37.45 billion in coupon payments. All together, that’s $92 billion in capital..... a chunk of this is being repatriated or invested in higher yielding bond markets. And Japanese investors, being the second largest foreign holders of Treasurys after China, are likely to be key players, Chandler said."

Well you don't say?

Talking Repatriation

Livingston nh  12:05:56 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Seems the whole world is now subject to the US data and its "possible effect" on the FOMC - inflation in UK drives cable higher? (how about a huge short position driving it) --
Williams' blather about Wicksell's 19th century concept driving the USD -- news about Fed looking at its policy screw-ups into Jackson Hole is old news (there are many comments both sides of this nugget)


Perth Wtr  11:15:18 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Lol SFH you need to be really really careful when ur wife is not complaining! U better eat out until she is complaining again.

Where are all GVI's usd bulls? That strange atmosphere in the forums again...

LONDON SFH  10:53:51 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Perth Wtr 10:35 GMT 08/16/2016
Boj is happy with 100 level. They are not complaining

Doesn't mean they're wife doesn't ALWAYS complain either :)

Perth Wtr  10:35:49 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Boj is happy with 100 level. They are not complaining

Perth Wtr  10:29:48 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Usdjpy 85 next target, no hope

Paris ib  09:41:56 GMT - 08/16/2016  
100 coming up. AGAIN !!

They need another budget in Japan or something. :-)

Paris ib  15:01:00 GMT - 08/02/2016  
Yet another test of 100 coming up.

Stocks in trouble.

And bonds? Same only worse.

With the leaders in charge why is this even a surprise. It's a surprise we have managed to keep this chugging along for as long as it has.

london red  08:55:22 GMT - 07/06/2016  
any chance to sell 11090-11115 will prob be jumped on. unlikely to see anywhere yest high.
eurgbp fib at 8710 is a tgt for some

Paris ib  08:51:37 GMT - 07/06/2016  
Looks like we will get 100 as early as today. EUR/USD is not really doing all that much as EUR/GBP marches higher.

From here where to on the USD/JPY? 80?

It's gonna be an interesting second half all around the world.

And Janet will have another excuse NOT to raise rates. The USD will have to rely on its 'haven' status for any strength but GOLD is much more likely to benefit.

Paris ib  07:45:21 GMT - 06/24/2016  
There you go.... 100 not far off now.

Paris ib  15:13:12 GMT - 06/16/2016  
"Set only 13 years in the future, Lionel Shriver's latest novel depicts an America where the dollar is near worthless and careers in the arts are an impossible luxury."

Looking forward

Paris ib  14:12:44 GMT - 06/16/2016  
No monetary policy tightening in the States. Well that's a surprise. Not. The excuses change (Brexit, China stock market, global economic conditions... blah, blah, blah) but the reality does not. No rate hike and - if the USD/JPY is anything to go by (and I believe it is) we have symptoms of capital flight. Just the start but that's why USD/JPY is the canary and not the full blown mine collapse. 100 still on the horizon.

Paris ib  15:24:50 GMT - 04/29/2016  
Medium term target here is now 100 on USD/JPY.

Paris ib  13:28:44 GMT - 04/06/2016  
Does anyone have a long term target on this? I seem to remember some Japanese official saying 80 was too low...

A break of 110, and it has to be sustained, will lead to a test of 100 over the next three months or so. But targets keep getting crushed quickly so it could be less than that.

Longer term? Anyone care to take a shot at a target?

Paris ib  15:21:05 GMT - 02/24/2016  
Not long before we get a test of 110 in USD JPY. Negative for stocks.

Paris ib  17:19:25 GMT - 02/19/2016  
Another day another big figure in the USD JPY.
Test of 112 coming up... though this market doesn't feel very lively at the moment. It could jolly up on a break. :-)

Paris ib  20:48:05 GMT - 02/18/2016  
USD/JPY heading for a test of 113.00 with a break likely Friday. S and P still above 1900 but a move lower likely into next week. The holiday generated short covering has run its course.

Paris ib  08:14:19 GMT - 02/11/2016  
nh - in terms of trade and capital flows EUR USD is a sideshow. In terms of capital and trade flows USD JPY is where it is at. China is important if you like but who trades the Chinese currency? And the Chinese economy is only important as a slave colony for Western industry.

USD JPY is a proxy for Asia if you like. Japan is a de facto U.S. colony. It is occupied and has been since Captain Perry sailed in, though the real occupation happened after the U.S. launched two nuclear bombs. Recent policy moves in Japan - which took USD JPY off 80 - show just how much control the U.S. has over Japan. The BoJ did more to save the USD than the FED could or did.

So for me the USD/JPY is a litmus test. If, despite the manipulation, they can't hold it - and it's NOT holding - then the USD has a real problem.

FWIW it is my contention that the U.S. domination of global economics and finance has not been achieved via consensus or cooperation. Should it become clear that that hold is weakening - and I believe it is - then the movement away from the USD could very easily become an avalanche. Geopolitics, and the emergence of a determined Russian resistance only adds fuel to the fire.

So for me the USD/JPY is the canary in the coal mine. Pay attention when it moves.

The Russian Phoenix: Hope or Illusion?

kl fs  00:57:46 GMT - 02/11/2016  
nice nice, yesterday under 115, today they will keep the lid at 113? 110 by end of friday and possibly lower if panic sets in, this is not panic just yet and BOJ is happy with this pace, they won't intervene

'Livingston' 'nh'  00:08:33 GMT - 02/11/2016  
ib - I don't know which of your posts re:USD/JPY to respond to -- this seems the oldest so -- exactly why do you believe the yen is critical to USD value? -- as I mentioned earlier this is a Japanese focus problem not USD related
My thought is that China was irrelevant prior to HK takeover and that the Asian balance re:JPY was rearranged after ~2004
I'm pretty sure Broader Conclusions of the USD position re: the World should not be based on a single currency

Paris ib  20:51:58 GMT - 02/10/2016  
CB - yeah I know about the seasonals. This is not seasonal. This is the market reassessing the dumb idea that the FED was gonna hike while everyone else in the world eased and this was going turn the USD into an outperformer. That is clearly not going to happen. First because the state of the U.S. economy does not warrant it.

'dc' 'CB'  20:48:18 GMT - 02/10/2016  
The Yen always rises in Fed going into March - Repat, End of Year book closing at the end of March... there are exceptions due to other forces in the market, but this is an anual event.

PAR 20:45:04 GMT - 02/10/2016  
Repatriation for fiscal year end and to pay margin calls . Japanese always do the unexpected . Remember Pearl Harbor .

'Paris' 'ib'  20:41:01 GMT - 02/10/2016  
Test of 113 coming up. Panic when?

Everyone hear still buying into the USD bullish story?

Paris ib  20:22:26 GMT - 02/10/2016  
Absolutely no bounce on this pair. Going hunting to see what is out there. More downside coming up. Risk of BoJ is always out there, so beware, but looks like we are heading to 113 and lower.

The new narrative: we have this wonderful economic recovery but outside events (China, Oil, blah, blah) mean that we may see adverse economic reactions in the States and solely for this reason rate hikes are on hold and we could maybe even EASE.

Translation: no recovery (as expected) and the USD is at risk.

'Israel' 'Dil'  14:58:27 GMT - 02/09/2016  

hi gorgeous, I covered all JPY longs... better instruments available now for a play

Paris ib  14:01:20 GMT - 02/09/2016  
Test of 114 coming up. USD is in trouble.

london red  17:40:42 GMT - 02/08/2016  
below 60 and can move to test 50 and below again. if fails to move under 60 then they might do inverse shs. stocks should move in tandem.

'Hillegom' 'Purk'  17:24:07 GMT - 02/08/2016  
Hmm, better take better positions along the way, entries way of.
11575-11580. Scale out risk.

'Livingston' 'nh'  16:29:11 GMT - 02/08/2016  
Away from USD and EUR vs yen the real financial pressure on stronger JPY is from the weaker Asian currencies // and IF you believe in intervention there are quite sufficient FX holdings

london red  16:14:14 GMT - 02/08/2016  
last august mkt moved from 12450 to 122 in a couple of days then final drop was 122 to 116 and back to 119 on the last day of the drop.

Paris ib  16:13:20 GMT - 02/08/2016  
1.12 gonna crack.

Paris ib  16:10:24 GMT - 02/08/2016  
115 coming up. Crash helmets please.

london red  16:08:39 GMT - 02/08/2016  
the range has been 115 to 125 over past year or so. below 115 they will be aware of technical break. boj will want to do most dmage to specs if going to hit mkt otherwise spent exercise as cb's cant fight trends. mkt is now long jpy and hitting mkt sometime after break of range fits criteria. it cannot change trend but can harm specs.
euro. move abv 112 might see stops hit.

Paris ib  16:02:22 GMT - 02/08/2016  
red the speed hasn't exactly been SLOW, has it?

Paris ib  16:01:16 GMT - 02/08/2016  
"SANDERS: If my memory is correct, when radical socialist Dwight D. Eisenhower was president, the highest marginal tax rate was something like 90 percent.

HARWOOD: When you think about 90 percent, you don't think that's obviously too high?


The guy might have a clue about the problem but his 'solutions' are toxic. That this kind of thinking even gets a hearings gives you some idea of where the U.S. is at. Going under and fast.

USD/JPY looks like it might even test 115 today. You have to love a fast market.


london red  15:59:48 GMT - 02/08/2016  
at these levels boj is only worried about speed of move. if we go and stay under 115 they may check rates. fwiw earlier bounce due to barrier defence of 11550. bigger barrier at 115.

Israel Dil  15:52:58 GMT - 02/08/2016  

why you should care who is in the head of the system taking your money as taxes?

you are so beautiful girl when passionately outing your beliefs. I would ever hold the thing until you done ;-)

bali sja  15:51:59 GMT - 02/08/2016  
all in holiday, extremely unlikely they will intervene here since they have better chance below 110, mr sakakibara wanted 110 so badly!

Paris ib  15:44:30 GMT - 02/08/2016  
Sanders freaks me out. Never had a proper job. Bankrupt before he found politics and one of these people that what needs to be done is 'confiscate' money to give to 'other' people. Which means giving lots more power to who? Why to the government? Cause they are going to be in charge of the 'confiscation'. Gee what a good idea. I'd rather have unions, thank you very much, proper wages, healthy working conditions and a lot less international free trade. But hey what we are likely to get is 'confiscation'. Think fascism. Cause that's what it is. I will take what you have by force. The flimsy intellectual justification for that doesn't matter. Bit of mob rule. A compliant media... and as they say in France... voila', mission accomplished.

Paris ib  15:38:26 GMT - 02/08/2016  
No sja they can always print JPY to throw at the market. That's the only reason we got off 80.00 in the first place. The question is how long can they do that sort of stuff before we have some sort of huge market reaction. And the bigger question is where that reaction will actually show up. The destruction of paper money can have all sorts of strange consequences. Which is what makes this so hard to trade. This is uncharted territory.

Israel Dil  15:34:02 GMT - 02/08/2016  

Sanders.... that's the name banksters fear ;-)

bali sja  15:32:12 GMT - 02/08/2016  
intervention with what? no money left to intervene, all bankrupt

'Livingston' 'nh'  15:29:09 GMT - 02/08/2016  
Been a while since anybody has seen an actual intervention in the Yen -- that playbook is still kicking around

Paris ib  15:29:08 GMT - 02/08/2016  
Longer term this is heading lower. 116.00 has gone.... 115.00 coming up. Medium term target 100 and then we take another look at it.

'Hillegom' 'Purk'  15:21:51 GMT - 02/08/2016  
Last 115,75 in. Glory or bummer...

bali sja  14:44:17 GMT - 02/08/2016  
lets just say usdjpy willdefinitely see 110 next, 120? forget it, only in your dreams

Paris ib  14:37:08 GMT - 02/08/2016  
USD/JPY takes the lead.... Target on the latest run? 115.00 but more to come. Break of 116 imminent. We won't know the real world consequences of this latest financial market splat for a while...

Paris ib  18:11:33 GMT - 02/04/2016  
The U.S. does not care about the weak USD per se. The concern is that the strong dollar encourages capital inflows and the weak dollar does not. The growth with offshore capital inflows. Those capital inflows have stopped. And there is the problem. The sell off in the USD suggests the situation may deteriorate. If we have capital flight from the USD then the economic situation will rapidly deteriorate in the States.

'Livingston' 'nh'  18:01:53 GMT - 02/04/2016  
what about the outflow of reserves from China? How's that debt situation over there?

What about all that EM dollar debt ??

WHY would the US care about a "weak" dollar ??

Remember when the TWIN DEFICITS were the hobgoblin du jour?? How'd that work out ??

Of course, it's probably different this time

Paris ib  17:42:00 GMT - 02/04/2016  
This has just started. Stop up your ears to the 'narrative' that all is well. All is not well. 'They' can talk about economic recovery all they like but it's not happening. The previous economic world order is over. We are in the process of building another one. In times like that you don't play the ranges you make strategic decisions. China made their decision some time ago when they moved to set up bilateral exchanges for their currency everywhere that mattered. In addition China, like Russia, moved to buy GOLD in huge quantities. These are preparations for a fundamental shift. And they are serious. The USD is not a safe haven. It is a risk.

Miami JN  16:40:27 GMT - 02/04/2016  
It is like yo-yo trading following the bouncing stock market.
Up 10 down 20 up 30 down 20

Paris ib  16:32:19 GMT - 02/04/2016  
Canary singing fit to bust...

Paris ib  14:59:24 GMT - 01/20/2016  
Break below 117.00 opening the way for a test of 115.00 in the near term. This continues to be very negative for stocks... not surprisingly the market is getting clobbered. The run up to the next FED meeting sure is going to be interesting.

The ECB meeting, despite the hoopla and the panic, is probably NOT going to come out with screaming DOVISHNESS tomorrow. First, that would be unprofessional and second, it wouldn't solve anything anyhow and would probably make a bad situation worse. I mean they may as well come into the room screaming and waving their arms around.... so don't expect the ECB to save the buck with some mega dovish statement. Right now we are getting to a situation where its every Central Bank for themselves. Si salva chi puo'.

Israel Dil  15:01:08 GMT - 01/15/2016  

first is the oh oh oh ;-)

hopefully/reform/revolution mentions in one post, what a cute dreaming girl you are... Japan's birth rate is the reason why rising stock markets are the only way to keep on paying pensions in Japan, economics is just another form of magic, looks realistic, feels realistic but stays forever a magic. only that makes economics a good solution to fulfill the human need in something to believe in. so Japanese will keep on putting their money in foreign stocks (isn't the neighbor's grass is always greener?!).

fear rules nature, society is just a side affect. so, let's turn off the phones in a place warm enough to walk whole day with minimal cloths. maybe joy waits there.

Paris ib  14:44:41 GMT - 01/15/2016  
Hopefully some kind of serious reform will come of all this. We have two options: seriously clean up and reform our governing institutions or we get some kind of nasty revolution with possible fascist responses. I'm not keen on the second option.

Paris ib  14:41:52 GMT - 01/15/2016  
I think there are a lot of factors at play. Bit of everything and all of it is not so great for stocks. Or the economy for that matter. And let's face not only is the FED out of bullets it's going the other way. Policy options at this point? None. What were they thinking. I really don't think many people thought any of this was a good idea. Not QE, not zero interest rates, not just handing over trillions to the banks... and it was done anyhow. And here we are. Not a surprise really, is it?

GVI Forex john bland  14:34:12 GMT - 01/15/2016  
USDJPY tied to U.S. stocks as JPY carry trade loans are repaid on equity weakness.

Paris ib  14:31:57 GMT - 01/15/2016  
"Paris ib 10:50:00 GMT - 01/15/2016
The USD/JPY fall is a bit slow motion but a break below 117.00 is likely to spook stock markets even more."

That didn't take long. :-))

We haven't even finished January and stocks are down 10 percent and more for the year in some cases. More to come.

Paris ib  10:50:00 GMT - 01/15/2016  
The USD/JPY fall is a bit slow motion but a break below 117.00 is likely to spook stock markets even more. The entire financial market narrative is falling apart. USD is in trouble. The U.S. economy is in real trouble and the FED is hiking? If it continues to do so that will be a sign of real big trouble out there somewhere. With the possibility you have rising inflation (possibly big time) and rising interest rates across the curve (at some point) and an economy that falls through that papered over floor. Not good news except maybe for Russia and China, I guess. Australia, which has bought into the neo-liberal mind set (deregulate, privatise, work for nothing, open up to the international economy and go into massive amounts of debt - from offshore) will be in for a struggle as it tries to find another economic model to live which (which is no longer 'colonial'). AUD looking ugly, especially on the crosses.

Paris ib  09:00:25 GMT - 01/07/2016  
All those fund managers worked their butts off so that Q4 2015 was not a disaster..... but it's still a disaster. Just delayed. Good work guys.

Paris ib  08:59:16 GMT - 01/07/2016  
While I fully expect to see another financial catastrophe - following the papering over of the problem post-Lehman - timing is always an issue. Can it really be that the powers-that-be did their darndest to get 2015 to close looking semi-OK and now the wheels fall off?

Starting to look that way.

Paris ib  10:24:14 GMT - 01/05/2016  
Indeed. What is interesting is the USD/JPY's role as an indicator for the USD in general and with the USD/JPY falling, global stock markets will remain under pressure... 2016 is going to be an interesting year. If the FED chooses to continue to HIKE rates in the face of all that then that is interesting to me. 2 year yields in the STATES are already up above 1 percent. 3 year yields are at 1.3 percent. There is a massive amount of U.S. Government debt which needs to be refunded every year. Auctions are estimated at 4 trillion per year, 4 trillion going to auction as yields rise. That has to be a headache.

Japan is a major source of finance for the U.S., as is China. Together they are the two single biggest holders of U.S. Government debt. There has been not been a significant inflow of new money into the U.S. Government bond market from abroad for years now. And that, given the role of foreigners in financing the U.S., is something which needs to be watched. And then we have GEOPOLITICS... actually I'm beginning to think this whole market is GEOPOLITICS. Economics and interest rates come a very poor second and third. So good luck everyone in 2016. It should be a wild ride.

Foreign Holders

bali sja  10:13:00 GMT - 01/05/2016  
ib, looks like usdjpy will stay below 120 now for some moons to come

Paris ib  10:02:47 GMT - 01/05/2016  
Paris ib 13:29:30 GMT - 06/19/2015
USD/JPY remains, to my mind, the pair to watch. The Greece drama is a drama but of little import. We could do headline ping pong on this one till December and, quite frankly, my nerves aren't up to it. At some point the whole thing goes into the bottom drawer to be quietly forgotten. USD/JPY has a more interesting outlook. Failure to hold a break of 125.00 sets us up for a test of 120.00 to see what's out there.

And the saga continues.

Paris ib  08:33:57 GMT - 11/25/2015  
USD/JPY fading despite talk of the FED hike and despite poor data out of Japan. USD fading against the AUD as well.


Paris ib  09:34:28 GMT - 09/01/2015  
Canary singing fit to bust.

Paris ib  15:09:07 GMT - 08/12/2015  
I doubt that red.

london red  15:06:29 GMT - 08/12/2015  
yen below 85 might pop big but remeber when dust settles yen will follow yuan weakness.
cable. channel at 15661 with stop abv prev high 15691 may work. gbp suffering a little from earlier data.

Paris ib  15:02:02 GMT - 08/12/2015  
Outside day down in USD/JPY with odds on for an outside week down this week.

Paris ib  07:41:21 GMT - 07/09/2015  
Forget the spin look at the facts: Japanese investors have dumped over JPY 4 trillion foreign bonds in June - the most ever.

The Japanese are taking their money home? Well why not? The world looks like a mighty dodgy place right now. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY peaked in June this year.

Japanese Holdings of U.S. bonds - April 2015

Mtl JP  15:18:12 GMT - 07/08/2015  
there is 119 congestion support on the daily bar usdyen if trendline at 120.30 does not hold

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:10:14 GMT - 07/08/2015  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:41 GMT 07/08/2015 - My Profile
USDJPY daily chart is in a downtrend that shows 120.60 as a support with the key level at 118.50 121.01 = 100 day mva. The psychological 120 level is a key level as always. Back above 121.90-00 would be needed to slow the risk.

GVI Forex

london red  15:09:29 GMT - 07/08/2015  
120,70 then 120,13 and thats as far as it will likely go today. but 120,70 is 50% fib and will likely see a bounce.
euro still needs to squeeze folk, hasnt done its blow out spike yet.

Paris ib  15:03:50 GMT - 07/08/2015  
Stops below 121.00 ? My guess that this is a mine field. Stops all the way down.

NY JM  12:25:56 GMT - 07/08/2015  
red I still don't see it and perhaps we can discuss this offline at some time rather than taking up space here.

london red  11:56:26 GMT - 07/08/2015  
run a line acroos the peaks. applies on a weekly basis too. a weekly close at or abv channel tgts a test of 124 however unlikely it may seem today. similarly a close below brings 120.13 channel into play.

NY JM  11:50:45 GMT - 07/08/2015  
I don't see the relevance of those levels but maybe just the way I look at charts. I am always open to the way others look at charts.

london red  11:48:24 GMT - 07/08/2015  
yes those. peaks may vary a few pips depending on provider.

NY JM  11:43:25 GMT - 07/08/2015  
red, is that USDJPY? I show those peaks at 121.85 and 122.02 unless I am missing something?

london red  11:39:21 GMT - 07/08/2015  
go back further jm dec 2014 mar 2015 peaks

nw kw  11:35:08 GMT - 07/08/2015  
last year jpy sent u/j up than dropped and depended on usa strength to move it back up/ xaujpy proves im right fell for the 3ed time of up side test

NY JM  11:27:26 GMT - 07/08/2015  
red, I am not seeing what you are looking at. This is the daily chart I am using with 123.31 the current down trendline.

london red  11:22:21 GMT - 07/08/2015  
dec14 mar15 highs 12245 today

NY JM  11:16:35 GMT - 07/08/2015  
red, what time frame for that trendline?

london red  11:13:32 GMT - 07/08/2015  
2.5% q/q growth consistent with rate hike from zero according to fed so hike can come this september.
yen will prob finish abv trendline as usual.

nw kw  11:06:34 GMT - 07/08/2015  
I see no reason for u/j to be down the x pull isn't strong

nw kw  11:01:46 GMT - 07/08/2015  
ya well lumber is not tanking

Mtl JP  10:56:20 GMT - 07/08/2015  
kw 10:53 earlier Lagarde's IMF issued an order to Janet's FED to only at best just think about a rate hike

nw kw  10:53:34 GMT - 07/08/2015

nw kw  10:44:56 GMT - 07/08/2015  
source linked all over net which one do I poste

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  10:42:39 GMT - 07/08/2015  
kw, if you reprint something you need to cite the source.

nw kw  10:32:11 GMT - 07/08/2015  
The situation echoes a similar one last year, when a dovish shift in investors’ bets following a soft first quarter was disappointed as the Fed continued to taper QE asset purchases and ended the program on schedule. If the Minutes document hints at a parallel scenario this time around, fears of imminent stimulus withdrawal may compound risk aversion. This will probably to weigh on sentiment-geared FX (such as the commodity bloc currencies) and fuel further strength in the US Dollar and Yen.

Paris ib  09:20:30 GMT - 07/08/2015  
Paris ib 13:29:30 GMT - 06/19/2015
USD/JPY remains, to my mind, the pair to watch. The Greece drama is a drama but of little import. We could do headline ping pong on this one till December and, quite frankly, my nerves aren't up to it. At some point the whole thing goes into the bottom drawer to be quietly forgotten. USD/JPY has a more interesting outlook. Failure to hold a break of 125.00 sets us up for a test of 120.00 to see what's out there.


And we're getting there.

Mtl JP  15:17:40 GMT - 07/07/2015  
probably getting more expensive to insure against yen's upside risk

Paris ib  15:13:44 GMT - 07/07/2015  
Taking a while... but we are getting there.

london red  14:04:10 GMT - 06/19/2015  
since greece lives to fight another day eurgbp moving higher as gbp safety premium less of a necessity.

GVI Forex john bland  13:53:09 GMT - 06/19/2015  
122.44/46 coming into the frame.

GVI Forex john bland  13:51:54 GMT - 06/19/2015  
Yes I see the correlation on the 5min chart.

Paris ib  13:48:56 GMT - 06/19/2015  
USD/JPY setting direction for the S and P.

Mtl JP  13:42:43 GMT - 06/19/2015  
probably need lower yield for that (run into treasury paper)

Paris ib  13:41:00 GMT - 06/19/2015  
John - apart for the interesting technicals are there any fundamentals pushing this thing around today? Looks like we get a test of the downside. If 122.50 goes we could get a spike down. I don't think there is any reason to get screamingly bearish unless we break 120.00. But down is definitely the direction I favour at the moment.

GVI Forex john bland  13:40:29 GMT - 06/19/2015  
Below 122.00 we return to the old 118.00-122.00 trading range that the BOJ does not target lol!

GVI Forex john bland  13:36:58 GMT - 06/19/2015  
ib- interesting chart. On the daily 122.44/46 is major support. There must be plenty of stops below there. Then the 122.00 is another obvious target.

london red  13:32:22 GMT - 06/19/2015  
channel at 122.38 today. some big stops below id strongly suggest.
fwiw greek deposit outflows friday 1.2bn. so seems they are giving them cash so greeks can withdraw their savings. in effect that suggest that they are likely to be cut adrift as capital controls can only be applied if they remain part of the eurozone. if they are not they can do as they please.

Paris ib  13:29:30 GMT - 06/19/2015  
USD/JPY remains, to my mind, the pair to watch. The Greece drama is a drama but of little import. We could do headline ping pong on this one till December and, quite frankly, my nerves aren't up to it. At some point the whole thing goes into the bottom drawer to be quietly forgotten. USD/JPY has a more interesting outlook. Failure to hold a break of 125.00 sets us up for a test of 120.00 to see what's out there.

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