From a little speech by the Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), at Australia's Reserve Bank:
"The primary channel through which foreign interest rates influence Australian conditions is through the exchange rate.... A depreciation of the Australian dollar in turn will tend to enhance the competitiveness of our exporters, including those services priced in Australian dollars like tourism and education. Through various channels, exchange rate depreciation can also loosen financial conditions in Australia"
discussing Australia's reliance on foreign capital (hedged in Australian dollar terms) and the impact of the housing market debacle.
All up it seems the RBA prefers the heavy lifting to be done by the exchange rate. That is they will let the AUD go..... down. :-)
"There are only two things that keep senior Reserve Bank officials awake at night; China and Australian real estate.... But our housing market is equally as unnerving. Our major banks have a decidedly unhealthy exposure to domestic real estate, with up to 60 per cent of their total loans allocated to Australian mortgages."
"Last week, Sydney's property market experienced its 12th straight month of declines while falls in Melbourne accelerated, sparked a flurry of warnings of impending doom.
The question now is: will the housing bubble deflate or burst?"
Indeed, THAT is the question. Anyone familiar with the stats knows odds on we are heading for a bust, at the very least in the major cities. Add in that foreign investor buying has dried up, the Labor opposition (which may very well WIN the next election) is going to FURTHER reduce tax breaks for property investors (you gotta love the clowns with the policy levers, first they through FREE cash at everyone as an incentive to embrace that POLICY dog: Value Added TAX) and then during the BUST they start taking away the foundations for investment in residential housing. Note:
"Over 60 per cent of the Australian banking system's loan book is in residential property, nearly 20 per centage points more than second-placed Norway and more than double the US ratio, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. In Hong Kong's frothy housing market, the ratio stands at only 14 per cent."
Does this story get any better? Meanwhile Australian politicians are jostling for the jobs with the biggest pension benefits. Charm, charm, charm. Charm and talent, what's not to love?
"The explosion in wealth has helped offset weakness in wages, so any lasting downturn in home prices could now act as a drag on consumer confidence and spending."
Guiding this down will be almost impossible. AUD bearish, particularly on the crosses as the USD is not exactly in great shape.
...'in a way guaranteed'.... of what exactly does such a guarantee consist ?
Paris ib 10:05:01 GMT - 01/30/2018
"Mr Kusher cited more properties on the market, tighter home lending restrictions and fewer investors looking to buy as the main reason prices will continue to soften, potentially resulting in double-digit peak-to-trough falls over the next couple of years."
These phenomenon are hard to control. The Australian authorities over decades have fuelled a bubble with all sorts of incentives including handing out cash to buyers. Now they are tightening the screws on lending in a way guaranteed to, well, 'crash' the market. This may be unwitting or just plain stupid but the results are the same.
Interestingly:
"Just over $1.7 trillion in outstanding home loans also account for more than 60 per cent of Australian bank assets."
it is amuzing btw to watch penchant for drama morphing "risk of a significant property price correction" into "Aims to Crash"
hard to let go of "dark tone" journalism roots
Mtl JP 09:30:29 GMT - 01/30/2018
what JPM publicly calls risk , when the "significant property price correction" occurs I see tremendous opportunity for those with cash.
Folks w/cash will be able to step in , title will pass and those who previously were aspiring owners become rent-payers. Less well heeled folks will be able consider to hop on REIT train.
Paris ib 09:13:42 GMT - 01/30/2018
Credit is harder to come buy and the results are obvious.
Australian authorities appear to have been successful in pricking the housing market bubble. Now we get the consequences. As always, the problem is with rolling over existing foreign debt. Australian foreign debt is off the charts and largely finances the Australian housing bubble. Note: Australians always talk about NET foreign debt, as if foreign assets can be called at will to plug the hole. They can't. Gross Foreign Debt, as in the real extent of foreign debt is the number to look at.
"Moves by regulators to tighten lending standards appear to have successfully cooled the runaway housing market, with property prices falling 1.1 per cent in May and apartment building approvals down 26 per cent over the past 12 months."
There are further signs of heat coming out of the east coast housing market, with Sydney and Melbourne leading a 1.1 per cent fall in property prices across Australia's five largest cities this month.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said house approvals increased 0.5 per cent and apartment and other dwelling approvals rose 9.6 per cent, in seasonally adjusted terms
For the 12 months to April, total approvals had fallen 17.2 per cent, the ABS said.
"When you speak to people candidly in the banks, they'll tell you very specifically that they are extraordinarily worried about the over-leverage of the Australian population in general," he said.
He flagged how exposed the country's lenders were to a correction."
"Let me tell you I've never been more certain of anything in my life," Mr Parker said. "I am absolutely certain we are in a bubble in this property market."
"Mortgage fraud is endemic, it's systemic, it's just terrible what's going on. When you've got 30-year-olds, who have never seen a property downturn before, borrowing up to 80 per cent to buy three and four apartments, it's a bubble."
"We've sold out all of our positions at huge profits for our clients."
Actually it looks like a whole bunch of people are counting on the AUD getting trashed. The people who have run out of monetary and fiscal tools to boost the economy are counting on a massive devaluation to do the job. Beggar they neighbour and all that. A lot of economists are calling the AUD at 50 cents against the USD (I suppose they believe that the USD will hold on to its reserve currency status in the meantime). And then there are the Australian funds moving money into international investments. In fact the existence of the Australian Superannuation Industry (which in short is a giant national Hedge Fund set up by Paul Keating) will likely exacerbate the AUD fall if it actually kicks into gear. FWIW the two worst performing funds during the last big crisis were Irish and Australian. I think Irish first, Australian second. From memory.
Paris ib 09:18:32 GMT - 05/12/2017
fs - I think they are counting on the AUD getting trashed and they are spruiking their fund. That's their business model though: doom and gloom and by the way I have something to sell you. :-)
kl fs 09:16:23 GMT - 05/12/2017
ib, that is interesting
then 70% international stocks...hmm what then if stocks also tank hard...
Paris ib 09:12:48 GMT - 05/12/2017
"The time to act is now. Get your money out of Australia."
"Generous tax breaks for homeowners and real estate investors have fueled the market to the point where the median price of a house in Sydney, our largest metropolis, is $1.1 million Australian dollars, or about $824,000."
She is wrong of course. The Property Boom has been fuelled - as always - by CREDIT. In this case for the banks: very profitable credit. Margins on mortgages are around 3 percent. The funds though are partly sourced offshore because domestic savings are insufficient. So Australia has also accumulated a massive FOREIGN debt. Think Iceland or Spain before the crash. No-one - none of the pundits or the experts or in Government - is talking reducing access to Credit or taking away Government CASH handouts for first home buyers. Of course not. The road to debt slavery must be kept paved with gold. No, the talk is: TAX TAX TAX. Or rather: tax profits on property, introduce a land value tax, increase the tax on capital gains, introduce a tax on capital gains on the family home (no allowance for inflation or time held)... I could go on. The answer my friends is always - quelle surprise - TAX. So the answer these clever little people have come up with here is: TAX. Expect more tax but also expect a property correction and an economic correction because right now the Australian economy is essentially property.
Recession looks likely. Impact on AUD? Bearish of course.
"Right now.. banks have more than $1.5 trillion in.. home loans on their books. Nine years ago... total lending for mortgages was just $683 billion... A little over a decade ago... (it was) decided it was a good idea to allow the big four banks to decide for themselves exactly how much cash they should stash way as a buffer for a housing market downturn...
They slashed.. the "risk weighted asset ratio"; from 50 per cent in 2007 to just 16 per cent by 2014.... That allowed them to really ramp up the lending. While the policy has since been reversed, we now are living with the consequences...property corrections have a habit of causing extreme economic pain."
just take a look into the high education sector in AU. the flow of students, their families and their money is guaranteed for some decades ahead. Australia is not the US real estate market.
Israel Dil 09:58:09 GMT - 04/06/2017
ib
who are the owners?
what is their actual cash flow?
those "empty" properties, does their owner bought them with the intention to generate cash flow on monthly base/quarterly/yearly base?
story short, Australian RE market acted/acts as safe heaven for the owners. those who bought to live in the property will always need a property to live in. stick to the basics when it comes to RE
Paris ib 09:49:23 GMT - 04/06/2017
Dil I doubt you really know what you are talking about when you discuss Australian property.
In Australia it is all credit and borrowing. There are a huge number of houses and flats standing empty. It is a speculative bubble. Immigration is not the big issue here at all.
the Australian RE market talks are almost copy/paste of the Israeli RE market. there will be some non dramaric price correction to the downside but not a years long recession. just for the reason that the growth in both places is immigration based and both places are in demand. simply, there are not enough sellers at lower prices, that's the whole story, no core pressure to sell at lower prices. only wishes and those are not enough to change prices.
Paris ib 09:43:50 GMT - 04/06/2017
I guess the comparison is Iceland.
Paris ib 09:41:37 GMT - 04/06/2017
John the problem has been the expansion of credit since the banks started borrowing overseas. They get 40 percent of their funding overseas. That has allowed them to go on a lending splurge over the last 18 years. Household debt levels have exploded. Australia's foreign debt has exploded. And house prices have exploded as a result. The question is what now? And there are no easy answers.
"banking was becoming a global affair. Rather than just recycle domestic deposits to households, our financial institutions discovered the wonders of offshore wholesale funding markets. They borrowed huge amounts of cash offshore, brought it home, and lent it to us which is why we have a mountain of foreign debt"
problem is if the cause is foreign rather than domestic demand.
Paris ib 09:12:33 GMT - 04/06/2017
I love the last paragraph:
"Given how reliant banks and other deposit-taking institutions are on the housing market for their earnings, one suspects this won’t be the last measure APRA, the RBA and, perhaps, the Federal Government have to take to try to cool the market without blowing up the system and economy in the process."
John I know. The thing is I have been reading about the doom and gloom which is supposedly coming in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets for more than a year. Things are delicately poised over in Australia at the moment.
"The RBA will... remain reluctant to lift rates decisively enough to puncture a housing market bubble, leaving it up to APRA to carry the responsibility and to try to protect the system and economy by effectively re-regulating the banks."
Depressing real estate values without causing a major crash is very tricky if not impossible.
Sydney ACC 08:48:03 GMT - 04/06/2017
Here's a good one for you
Sydney real estate ‘cheap’ and there’s no bubble, says global head of residential at Knight Frank
Sydney real estate is cheap and the Australian market is not experiencing a bubble, according to a senior executive at one of the world’s largest property consultancies.
How he got away with the introduction of the GST is beyond me.
Paris ib 08:40:38 GMT - 04/06/2017
Thanks for the clarification ACC. Ooops.....
So he was brought down by the GFC ??
Sydney ACC 08:37:44 GMT - 04/06/2017
Legislation for GST was passed in 1999.
Howard lost an election in 2010, the third general election after the legislation was passed.
Paris ib 08:23:11 GMT - 04/06/2017
Nothing like a little hyperbole to get you started in the morning.
They roll this guy out every time they want to introduce more tax penalties in Australia. They pushed through the GST with the help of 'experts' like these. Howard lost the next election as a result of the introduction of the GST against the electorate's wishes but that tax has stuck. And it's one of the most punitive value added tax regimes I have ever seen (compared with global norms) with no apparent minimum threshold and school fairs / girl guides selling cookies and the like having to apply for GST registration etc. Bit of nasty joke on Australians.
Meanwhile the cash hand out to home purchasers is NOT under threat. But there is dark talk about taxing capital gains on principal place of residence and such.....
AUD implications? Why bearish of course.
The 'plan' - such as it is seems to be to burst the property bubble (currently occurring in Sydney and Melbourne) using tax and capital requirements for banks. The economic boost is then expected to come via a massive foreign exchange adjustment. Good luck with that plan.
Housing debt in the stratosphere. Economy slowing. Interesting timing.
"tax breaks for property investors such as negative gearing needed to be addressed to complement the efforts of regulators to cool down the housing market"
With household debt levels at record highs and the property bubble about to burst in Sydney and Melbourne local banks have decided NOT to restrict lending but RAISE interest rates. What a bunch of arseholes.
And the chatter at the margin is: introduce a land tax. The deviants out there love these kind of tax streams which NEVER stop. A follow on from the GST which Australians did not want.
Meanwhile Australia has an energy crisis... with black outs and lack of capacity which seems to have followed on from introducing a whole lot of neo-liberal policies in the 1980s and 1990s. I guess they'll be convinced by some EXPERT to introduce nuclear power.... gag.
AUD? Under pressure. The economy? At risk. Well done guys.
as long the Australian regime ensures water supply nationwide, Australian macro economics to remain low to none impact event for ++95% of population. Australia's challenge is to stay away from involvement in foreign conflicts.
Sydney ACC 10:23:14 GMT - 03/16/2017
Published in SMH about two hours ago:
Confidence in housing collapses to lowest level in 40 years: survey
Confidence in the housing market has collapsed, with the number of Australians describing property as the wisest place to put their savings falling to its lowest level in more than 40 years.
The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has been asking about the wisest place to store savings since it began its consumer confidence survey in 1974.
ACC - Australia is likely heading for a recession. The move by the NAB today to raise interest rates on mortgages won't help. The property market will peak in Sydney and Melbourne eventually and then what? Massive rate cuts? They want the AUD lower, the RBA has said as much. The outlook for the AUD is poor. The only question is the timing and also the outlook for the USD. Crosses seem the best bet.
I do not doubt they want to cut rates in Oz... they are trying to find a way. Property is already falling in price in Perth and Darwin and Brisbane. The economy is on the slide, unemployment is up. The only thing standing in the way is the property bubble in Sydney and Melbourne.... stay tuned.
Employment figures while erratic (full-time/part-time mix) pn the whole the trend is negative. Can't see much of an improvement by October Toyota, Ford and Holden will have closed their respective production lines.
You can add jobs lost at suppliers.
Retail sales impacted by low wage increases. Myer announced today poor results for of end of year sales.
Paris ib 08:56:47 GMT - 03/16/2017
"warnings from the Reserve Bank that the banking system might encounter "systemic issues" in the event of a downturn" in housing prices.... well gee guys and aren't you supposed to deal with those sorts of issues? I thought that was your brief.
Another Central Bank doing a sterling job. Not.
AUD bearish. Though considering the USD outlook probably NOT against the USD.
ACC - it is clear the RBA is caught in a dilemma. The economy needs a rate cut fast but the only game in town in borrowing to invest in real estate so lower rates means an even bigger property bubble.... who educated these people?
What is their back up plan when property inevitably gets slammed? Oh, I don't think they have one. Ooops.
What on earth are they putting in the water in Australia?
"banks... could be forced to raise rates incrementally to manage the risk, potentially by as much as 3 percentage points in an extreme scenario"
The mining sector has already blown up. (Debt-financed) property is the only thing keeping the economy from imploding altogether and NOW these genius are considering ways to end the party with a BANG.
The idea (if you want to call it that) is to try to ease credit growth in real estate so that interest rates can be lowered and with interest rates the AUD... without making the current property market bubble WORSE. And this is the best that these people can come up with... stay tuned.
You may or may not be reading too much into this article.
The last thing the RBA would want to engineer ysan American style property crash, rather it is more concerned with the growth of investor originated mortgages.
The RBA is caught in a dilemma.
Given the current historical low level of interest rates the governor of the RBA has repeatedly indicated the futility of further reductions to the cash rate. Rather it may prove to be counterproductive given the reductions in income faced by those living off interest income. Pensioners in particular are already suffering from changes made to income and asset limits introduced as from January 1.
A decline would help WA. While the major focus is on Melbourne and Sydney the Bank has an eye on all property markets in Australia. Rather than a national market it is comprised of the various state capitals and regional centres. An element inl ast weekend's state election in WA was the decline in property prices in Perth and various mining centres. A number of borrowers are already facing zero or negative equity in their investments having bought when the WA economy was booming. It is not only confined to the residential market, commercial vacancies are currently 25%, a 25 year high.
The Coalition ought to be concerned with the outcome in WA, they govern only in NSW anbd federally. There are three by-elections to be held in NSW, Labor despite the Eddie Aboud cloud is expected to do well and win back at least one of those seats being contested.
Paris ib 16:44:51 GMT - 03/14/2017
"The Reserve Bank is considering tighter bank lending standards amid concern about how the financial system would handle a collapse in housing prices, beginning with Brisbane apartments."
The idea seems to be: tighten regulation to cut off credit to the residential real estate market.
This would then allow the RBA to cut interest rates and the AUD to fall WITHOUT making the bubble in real estate prices in Sydney and Melbourne any worse. So they want lower domestic interest rates and a lower AUD as the panacea for the economy.
These guys are talking about bringing in rule changes which will 'moderate the price of housing' right at the time when the property market is topping out and household debt to income is at record levels, when the mining boom is over and the residential property market is basically keeping the Australian economy ticking over. Now they want to 'do something' about housing prices. Not when they brought in the first home buyer grant and all the other incentives to buy real estate... no, they want to do it now when the risk for the economy is at an absolute peak. As for modelling, give me a break. Econometrics is pseudo science at its worst and produces pseudo evidence which is no evidence at all. But hey let's do this. What's the worst that can happen? A property market crash and economic crisis? No problem. Australia hasn't had a recession for decades. What's the term? The recession Australia had to have. Well one's coming up and it look likely to be a doozy.
Outlook for the Australian economy and the Australian dollar in the medium term: bearish of course.
"Capital city rental prices have fallen 0.2 per cent over the past 12 months, in a worrying sign for a property market bloated with investors. It is the first time in the 20-year history of CoreLogic RP.. that it has recorded annual rental rates falling"
The property market in Australia has peaked. So that's mining and now property. The two biggies...
kw - that's interesting. Something is up. When you look at the data there is concern about the health of the local banks if the property market takes a turn for the worse and there is not a lot of good news out there. The Australian economy is very vulnerable at the moment.
Politics is all over the place and there is talk of an early election...
nw kw 16:41:54 GMT - 02/24/2016
ib- xauaud spread up 100.00 compared to xauusd = big time fear in aud and im in xauaud long big time that's reason I use audusa and its not in line with gold's spread
Paris ib 16:28:04 GMT - 02/24/2016
kw.... FWIW the economy in Australia is on a holding pattern right now.... waiting for China, property, mining etc. FWIW that article suggested that property prices will start to fall in Australia by March 2016:
Macquarie Bank: "Our economics team are forecasting quarter-on-quarter house prices to fall from the March 2016 quarter before beginning to recover from June 2017, with a 7.5 per cent fall from peak to trough... easing population growth just as housing supply surged well above trend, raising the risk of “rapid adjustment”.
Credit Suisse has also warned about the deterioration in buying conditions, particularly in NSW. “Macro-prudential tightening, out-of-cycle rate hikes on investor mortgages, and weakness in Chinese buying are having a clear impact on sentiment and demand,” it said.
It came after both the ANZ and Commonwealth Bank indicated a tightening of lending to property developers due to oversupply fears as the market cools."
A softer USD will keep AUD buoyed... on the crosses (AUD/JPY EUR/AUD) more scope for selling AUD. gl gt
nw kw 16:22:10 GMT - 02/24/2016
hkd will crash aud// aud bond cant last much longer ib if your right, just gbp pumping aud up.
nw kw 16:07:16 GMT - 02/24/2016
fire wall doesn't like that web page got me out.
market using mxn for EM markets. Its up, cad down, and cad food will keep oil from crashing cad. 1.35
Meanwhile no-one wants to do anything about the unfunded aged pension scheme which is where all the problems are in the first place.
Why is this? This is the template around the globe: really stupid, unfunded, unfair pension schemes and the 'solution' is always to tax the h.ll out of everything else to fund these crazy pensions... and no-one wants to reform the system.
"The Commonwealth has a big budget problem. Its deficit in 2014-15 is forecast at $40 billion.
The age pension costs $42 billion a year.... It’s growing much faster than the economy and taking an increasing share of government spending."
Contribution to Australian GDP from various industries:
Property ownership 182
Residentialy ownership 147
Mining 140
Financial services 110
etc.
Mining has gone belly up and now the property market 'seems' shakey. They are the two big pillars of the Australian economy. Turnbull though is backing away from making the tax mix more onerous for property owners (wise move). Though all the weirdo tax reformers don't think so. The noise that suggests there is some kind of tax paradise for property in Australia is so far from the truth it's a joke.
Capital Gains tax may only come to 25 percent or so if you are a resident and hold for more than one year but there is no (yes read that right NO) indexation for inflation and no discount if you hold for 20 or 30 years or even more. So some little old lady holding property for 30 years is going to get slammed with a 25 percent tax on the nominal gain if she sells. Principal place of residence is exempted but the zealots would like to tax gains there too. Australians think the current CGT regime is a good deal. The tax debate is so without international comparisons it's crazy. Australians are taxed to death and don't even know it. But then they don't seem to know that they are drowning in debt either. Go figure.
Medium term implications for the AUD? Negative of course. But not necessarily against the USD, which has problems all of its own. gl gt
funny aud/eur looks like gold chart if it moves might tradable.
nw kw 07:48:10 GMT - 01/28/2016
nh 23:34 / market runner & pips
nw kw 07:45:24 GMT - 01/28/2016
fed friendly to em intrest payments aud strength shorted aud/eur for now but is this tnt for aud day gl. but send eur to interested being soft for now but swiss pushing jpy this week.
Mtl JP 21:52:31 GMT - 01/27/2016
ib it is better to ask what will happen and
how to position for profiting from it
note that this is a trade idea forum rather than a meddling policy forum
a lets try to get RICH off policymakers type of forum
-
ps / re short term funding. Nothing over 3 years
folks will sign an 84month - 100yr or 1000yr deal if the payments are low enough to allow them get their fingers on a thing they want
it is just a matter of easy enough payments to get a deal done between two willing n able parties
Paris ib 21:37:28 GMT - 01/27/2016
So let 'em print AUD... and then what? Massive devaluation?
Hasn't happened so far in Australia. Still one of the higher interest rate regimes in the OECD. Massive foreign debt, massive ongoing reliance on foreign capital. Local banks rely on offshore funding for 40 percent of their book. And it's all short term funding. Nothing over 3 years.
Mtl JP 21:31:53 GMT - 01/27/2016
excess debt is a problem of insufficient cash flow
nothing Keynesian printing geniuses can not solve
With mining and agriculture in the hole and all the economic growth since the GFC tied up in debt funded residential property investment a slow down in property will be a pretty significant downer for the Australian economy. Debt to income ratios? Off the charts.
lower prices make things more affordable
who objects to that ? (besides 2% inflation targeting economists)
Paris ib 21:11:13 GMT - 01/27/2016
"property prices in Sydney.. have fallen .. the largest.. drop on record. Sydney’s median house price dropped 3.1 per cent over the December quarter 2015, the first drop since June 2012"
"Australia building approvals collapse in November.... Australia building approvals (MoM) for November came in at -12.7% vs -3.0% expected and 3.9% last, with the YoY read in November at -8.4% vs 3.9% expected and 12.3% last."
So there you go. The Australian authorities are well on their way to crashing the last remaining economic sector which was still doing reasonably well. Congratulations guys. Mission accomplished.
"Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe said the tighter regulations the Reserve Bank and the lending watchdog have been pursuing during the past 12 months are working."
Property prices are under pressure, foreign investors have been warned off and the average Aussie has tax increases to look forward to.
"A PROPOSAL to raise the GST to 15 per cent (from the current rate of 10 percent) could be up for review when Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull meets with state premiers this week"....
With mining and commodities tanking, household debt to income at record levels (thanks to huge mortgages) and a massive level of foreign debt the powers-that-be in Australia have seen fit to take a shot at the property market. Investor buying has buoyed property prices in major cities in Australia with illegal offshore investor buying helping things along. The Australian government no longer wants that to happen. In fact, after having closed both eyes to foreign debt, foreign borrowing and foreign investor property investment in Australia it has now been decided that it's time to crash the property market. It's a step by step approach. First make it harder for Investors to borrow. Second, make the tax regime considerably LESS attractive and now take aim at foreign investors.
"Today, the ATO has lodged a notice in the Government Gazette (see here), which has demanded 32 years of detailed transaction history from Australia’s state and territory land titles offices and rental boards, in order to create a new central depository of data on property ownership."
Keep going guys and there won't be much left of the Australian economy.
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