headline strong but ahe soft and will construction restaurants and temp be in part unwound in january. ahe is going to suffer from negative baseline effects in january so is likely to get dragged down below 2.5% y/y. not saying much for inflation. i suspect a lot of folk taken profit down by 108 and i dont think we will see much action unless topside tested and since dollar not really running away its poss.
GVI Forex john bland 13:38:58 GMT - 01/08/2016
Canada EMPLOYMENT December 2015
NEWS ALERT
Jobs: +22.8 vs. +11.0 exp. vs. -35.7K prev.
Rate: 7.10% vs. 7.10% exp. vs. 7.10% prev.
ib - in 1998 there was no CHINA effect - whatever the Japanese folks have said about 110 level was based on the assumption of the neighborhood Gorilla maintaining a stable currency - we shall see
Paris ib 18:50:11 GMT - 01/07/2016
The level the BoJ has often cited is 100 to 110 - so no reason for anyone to panic right now. USD/JPY can - and probably will - go lower from here. All the pundits will have to go back to the drawing board.
Livingston nh 18:43:00 GMT - 01/07/2016
John - there have been a lot of analysts that have predicted a demise in USD/JPY because of "improvement" in inflation expectations and "limits" on BoJ -- BUT 2 things - 1. China and its impact on competitive currency valuations on its neighbors (customers and suppliers, including Japan) and
2. BoJ (w/Finance Ministry) has no limits - been a while since intervention BUT they still have the Playbook available - if your 1.20 yen is the happy level they will come in and when most unexpected
Some folks haven't seen this in their experience
GVI Forex john bland 18:33:05 GMT - 01/07/2016
PBOC under pressure to devalue yuan by 10-15% from government. --Report
BOC Poloz
-- Core CPI overstates inflation
-- weak CAD hurting consumers via import prices
-- prepared to look thru temporary factors in CPI
-- flexible exchange rate not a panacea
Livingston nh 12:30:26 GMT - 01/07/2016
jp - DC cb noted the subsidy cuts, the article you posted notes the age demographic (many of the younger folks are well educated) -- the risk of domestic chaos raises the risk of first response of external military adventure // So Yemen proxy war could expand -- Iranian sanctions are flashpoint for US/Saudi relations /// the middle east situation deteriorates further just a question of how quickly (my EUR comment of earlier) -- the House of Saud has much in common with the House of Romanov
***China financial chaos could lead to some military misadventures
Mtl JP 11:59:03 GMT - 01/07/2016
nh - who would cry
Saudi Arabia's troubled economy could bring down ruling House of Saud
The IMF estimated last year that Saudi Arabia needs a global oil price of around $106 (£72) a barrel to balance existing levels of expenditure with revenues.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/saudi-arabias-troubled-economy-could-bring-down-ruling-house-of-saud-a6799746.html
--
canada - under pretty hair Justin - has “no intention” of cancelling a controversial $15 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia
livingston nh 11:20:37 GMT - 01/07/2016
jp China's fx down107.9 in December , 512.66 in2015
Paris ib 10:40:48 GMT - 01/07/2016
Sydney.... is that a serious question?
"By 1943, the Soviet Union had already lost some 5 million soldiers and two-thirds of its industrial capacity to the Nazi advance. That it was yet able to turn back the German invasion is testament to the courage of the Soviet war effort."
At any rate let the Brits vote. I'm not sure anyone cares except the Brits. And I have nothing against democracy.
But welcoming Russia in Europe would be positive. First Europe has to find some politicians NOT on the Washington payroll. Could take a while.
Expect the U.S. to work overtime to upset any possible deal between Russia and the EU.
"Many experts view the TPP as Washington’s attempt to counter APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) amid growing influence of Russia and China in the region."
The old 'world domination' mentality still alive and well in some quarters makes 'progress' just a tad difficult. :-)
And where would UK be if they hadn't supported France in WW 1 and WW2?
UK would be better off without being involved in Europe. Take a look at bi-lateral trade figures.
Paris ib 10:30:57 GMT - 01/07/2016
PAR. Indeed Russia would be a HUGE plus for Europe.
Have the Europeans even removed SANCTIONS against Europe? You know those sanctions that actually cost Europe a tonne of money?
Brexit is no problem for Europe . UK only looks to Europe when they have problems . UK specialist in cherrypicking.
Like Tacher , Cameron just wants a better deal.
Russiaintro would be a huge plus for Europe .
GVI Forex john bland 10:04:41 GMT - 01/07/2016
Eurozone Retail Sales November 2015
ALERT
mm: -0.30% vs +0.50% exp. vs. -0.40% (r -0.20%) prev.
yy: +1.40% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% (r 2.40%) prev.
That would be more exciting if the UK was a member of the EURO. It's not. So they leave, take their currency and their trade deficit elsewhere. Personally I don't see it happening. But you never know. Probably a lot less interesting to the rest of the world than it is to the British press. The days of Empire a long gone. Someone should tell the Brits. :-)
Mtl JP 09:52:33 GMT - 01/07/2016
(Reuters) - A majority of Britons who have made up their minds would vote to leave the European Union in a forthcoming referendum, making Britain by far the most reluctant member of the 28-nation bloc, an opinion poll published on Thursday showed.
and japanese keeps quiet about their jpy strength LOL
Mtl JP 04:38:57 GMT - 01/07/2016
11:13 China’s stock regulator to restrict major shareholders’ sales
11:03 China trading halted early again, Asian markets slide in response
11:02 China blames speculators for weakened yuan
MarketWatch
Central bank promises to keep currency stable
China’s central bank pointed its fingers at speculators for the recent dramatic weakening of the Chinese currency and vowed to keep the yuan largely stable.
“Some speculative forces are trying to reap gains from playing the renminbi,” the People’s Bank of China said in a statement Thursday morning, using another name for the yuan. Those trading activities “have nothing to do with (China’s) real economy” and have only caused “abnormal fluctuations” in the currency, the central bank said.
“Faced with such speculative forces,” it continued, the central bank “has the ability to keep the yuan stable at a reasonable equilibrium.”
-
Why not blame Zhou Xiaochuan instead - he the one in charge since December 2002 of the monetary policy of the People's Republic of China
kl fs 04:33:09 GMT - 01/07/2016
shawn, 118.20ish stop above 118.70 will do for fresh entry IMHO
kl shawn 04:20:36 GMT - 01/07/2016
anybody adding fresh short to usdjpy now?
bali sja 02:18:40 GMT - 01/07/2016
1000%
panic just starting....enjoy
there are lots of usds to be unwound from this jpy carry, about time
Mtl JP 02:13:19 GMT - 01/07/2016
usdyen ____ odds of 116 ?
Belgrade TD 02:12:38 GMT - 01/07/2016
China's CSI 300 down 7% ... trading halted for the rest of the day ...
houston mw 01:52:35 GMT - 01/07/2016
JP, the drop in USD was Yuan fix 6.5646 midpoint vs 6.5314 from yesterday.
Mtl JP 01:07:34 GMT - 01/07/2016
someone plz post China FX Reserves data for December when it comes out - tia
fwiw Vice Chair Fischer strikes me as mildly hawkish. I have heard him interviewed several times and he is not the dove that some say. Also, I sense he is not living in mortal terror of the markets as many of his colleagues apparently are.
GVI Forex john bland 13:43:34 GMT - 01/06/2016
Fed Vice Chair Fischer:
-- Market estimate for Fed tightening too low.
-- Estimates for four rate hikes in 2016 in the ballpark.
-- Levels of uncertainty have risen somewhat
GVI Forex john bland 13:31:54 GMT - 01/06/2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade September 2015
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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