sorry busy at moment. I figuerd stox would fall and EURUSD would rally. Just what happened!
Saar KaL 20:17:41 GMT - 01/08/2016
If you have a yahoo stock symbol...will run my analysis here
GVI Forex john bland 20:14:54 GMT - 01/08/2016
Any opinions on how stocks will close?
I'm thinking weak into China on Monday. This in no way has been a vote of confidence in the jobs data.
Saar KaL 19:58:44 GMT - 01/08/2016
If for EURUSD I got this tgt 1.1072
for next week...Buy below 1.0876
GVI Forex john bland 19:19:55 GMT - 01/08/2016
Market seems to want 1.0900+??
Livingston nh 17:51:11 GMT - 01/08/2016
John - UK fiscal impact from lower energy tax revenue
Choppy oil, stox internals have been negative even while SPX moved higher, treasurys flat -- first one to establish a direction likely drags everybody else along
london red 17:48:47 GMT - 01/08/2016
CB, train timetable for today? seems a quiet afternoon a buck will go a long way.
yen 11796/118 close key
GVI Forex john bland 17:48:16 GMT - 01/08/2016
US 10-yr 2.145% -0.60%
I believe I saw 2.190% at one point
london red 15:40:41 GMT - 01/08/2016
gbp is suffering from brexit hedging effects, the softer data hasnt helped either. nothing to do with oil. i said last year folk are not hedged for brexit, they are doing it now.
london red 15:39:34 GMT - 01/08/2016
watch cable into the fix. prev low was 14567. a fix below is bearish for remainder of session and a weekly close below bearish for next wk. eurgbp will be affected but likely to top out at 7500 today. it may or may not breach the barrier there but either way should fall off after fix. there are some stops abv there but id be surprised to see appetite abv 75 cents after a volatile week.
GVI Forex john bland 15:38:58 GMT - 01/08/2016
nh- Is GBP still seen as a petro-currency?
GVI Forex john bland 15:23:16 GMT - 01/08/2016
DAX, and S&P at their LOD. Crude weak also. Bad for USD.
Livingston nh 15:22:49 GMT - 01/08/2016
Oil is starting to break down again - weight on Stox - helpful to USD vs CAD, NOK (GBP? petro effect)
dc CB 14:59:30 GMT - 01/08/2016
*while employment in professional and business services increased by 73,000 in December, temporary help services accounting for nearly half, or 34,000, of the gain.
*the most troubling aspect of today's jobs report, and perhaps the clearest explanation why there was no wage growth in December, is that the number of multiple job holders soared by 324,000 bringing the total to 7.738 million.
ftse100 look set for a really bad finish to the day and week. may end up 1% dwn just squinting at the chart. as for s&p if we are in bear mkt they will sell off to finish zero or dwn on the day. they have been buying most dips intraday, yest they didnt.
dc CB 14:45:41 GMT - 01/08/2016
Winter. Models are all turning to agree with WeatherBell's.
Take your lead from stox today. At some point they will realize, like the forex market has, that the data (payrolls) are flawed
london red 14:27:19 GMT - 01/08/2016
if the previous days have been very volatile, the nfp day tends to be a damp squib we folks looking to tap out for the week. straddles were cheap and id suggest money has already been taken there. euro tested top end of 85-91 and failed initial test. watch the hourly close. at or below 200hma signals lower. towards hours high signals abv 109 and 10926-46 test. but vols low so dont look for extension of yesterdays high or todays low unless we can something new.
dc CB 14:27:00 GMT - 01/08/2016
Reality: we needed a good number to bolster FAILING Credibilty of the FED. The SToX MarkIT Eveing Newz everyday this week has cast an evil eye on the Fed's failures.
GVI Forex john bland 14:16:08 GMT - 01/08/2016
Markets thinking twice now about the jobs data. I warned earlier about the weather effects here today. Most of the U.S. saw record high temperatures in November and mostly in December and the seasonal adjustments to the figures were obviously flawed. Average earnings were weak.
fwiw, January temps are back to near normal.
dc CB 14:15:22 GMT - 01/08/2016
Some folks got their stops run.
london red 14:11:07 GMT - 01/08/2016
10885/91 if taken out can have a crack at yest high but may be option related selling there and as by 108, folks taking profit. for me still looks like mkt ready to do away with week. if yen can stay under 118 then may get some sparks.
Livingston nh 14:07:56 GMT - 01/08/2016
Treasurys not too impressed by NFP - took back a little of yesterday afternoon's equities induced yield decline (2 yr still under 1%) // stox may not be able to maintain all of the opening level into a weekend
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:06:54 GMT - 01/08/2016
Third time up saw 1.0854 taken out following equities.
GVI Forex john bland 14:06:18 GMT - 01/08/2016
"BLS data on those not working due to bad weather shows NOV+DEC totals that average 283k since 2005. 2015's NOV+DEC total is a below-average 222k. Other notable mild years include 2006 (224k not working) and 2011 (187k)
so about +60k of weather effect in both november and december"
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04:55 GMT - 01/08/2016
I posted this on GVI Forex and proved to be dead on with post-NFP bounce high at 1.0853. Contact Me to get access on a regular basis
Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:58 GMT 01/08/2016 - My Profile
1.0854 so far proving tough
Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:48 GMT 01/08/2016 - My Profile
Key intra-day EURUSD level is the former low at 1.0854
london red 12:47:36 GMT - 01/08/2016
nfp. a bit more, yen gbp perspective. yen weekly close +/- 11796/118 v imp. its 38.2 of rally. theyve been under 118 overnight tripped stops and pulled in some shorts at same time. if rallies much abv 11855 then might see squeeze of those shorts. but if falls back under 118 this afta i doubt anyone will stand in way.
cable. 14567 is the prev low. it has been broken but mkt needs a wkly close below here to tgt 140/142xx. a failure to do so might see some buying next week, the first of the year probably. there is poss one last flight for cable topping 149-153 max (gd pt to sell incidentally) but needs to avoid close below 14567 this week and also end of month as well.
london red 11:57:59 GMT - 01/08/2016
euro/nfp. daily straddle cheap by historical standards only 75 pips while ny cut barely half a fig. daily puts initial sup/res at 108 and yesterdays high which itself it a whisker below prev high in mid 40's. so unless these two sides are broken, folk may call it a week pretty soon after london fix unless data can surprise well. mkt set up for a btter number given adp and weather so anything under 200k a disappointment. due to seasonals any increase in ahe is going to bump up the y/y so there the bar isnt so high.
GVI Forex john bland 10:19:32 GMT - 01/08/2016
EURUSD dead flat 50 period ma on the 5min chart (1.0873).
I usually don't like to get involved in trying to predict what essentially is a random number. People much smarter than I can't do it either. However, I wonder this time around if the seasonal adjustments will be able to account for the "el nino" much milder than usual December weather. I think we see a reading above the +220K level.
A reading below 200K under the circumstances would be very weak imho
GVI Forex john bland 09:26:44 GMT - 01/08/2016
wti $33.65 +0.38
EUR mixed to weaker on its crosses
Chinese Markets recovered
Focus on U.S. Jobs data later
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