jp - "All seven stock markets in Gulf states tumbled as panic gripped traders. Dubai's DFM General Index slumped 4.8pc to 2,682.56, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index collapsed by 7pc to 5,409.35, its lowest level in almost five years."
cb noted the beginning of backwardation - so this could be the start tonight for the oil panic
Mtl JP 10:28:51 GMT - 01/16/2016
(Reuters) - International sanctions on Iran will be lifted on Saturday when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issues its final report on Tehran's disputed nuclear program, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said.
Iran should add 700 000 bbls of oil to the market offer
GVI Forex john bland 20:55:56 GMT - 01/15/2016
Atlanta Fed tracking 4Q15 GDP estimate lowered to 0.6% from 0.8% saar.
Livingston nh 19:11:10 GMT - 01/15/2016
re: art cashin Fed comment -- this is the mindset that needs to be broken - even the dovey mopes at the Fed know this // way outside the Fed job description (started by G'span)
london red 19:04:52 GMT - 01/15/2016
work kept me busy today JP, lots of paperwork to ready. doing a lot of deals recently and thats what im here for. but i actually cut my brexit cable to 10% from 20% on 14281 the lt fib of 27x/11x. stop is still over the 46 handle but likely will fall to a whisker over 145. last tgt will be near 140 but i need to see under 14226 to see it. you know me im v bearish on brexit result for uk and i did warn that mkt not hedged but that was north of 150 and the risk now is for a bounce. they are unlikely to do a deal in feb, so vote will get set back from june to maybe september. if they cant do a deal by may then vote probably early 2017. so all those hedges are going to expire and will need to be done again. there will be some backing out which should result in some short covering.
Mtl JP 19:00:36 GMT - 01/15/2016
dc CB 18:55 but euro not going to 1.0925-ish
at least not yet
yen. said to be some covert offical bids near 11650. id suppose if that goes then they throw in towel but id wait for 11629 before passing judgement. but you have to buy huge dips as it always works.
XLE actually not looking too bad. didnt make new low and has an inverse shs of sorts. when the crap starts to do better thats a good sign esp while oil down 6%.
Mtl JP 18:51:48 GMT - 01/15/2016
it is NOT a 3 day weekend for currencies
maybe mice will party while cats r away
Mtl JP 18:48:30 GMT - 01/15/2016
it did hit 1857 and it did not go on a round of sellin
plus it is a 3 day weekend....too much time to Think
watch the usual suspects for hints: VIX VXX UDS/JPY.
10 and 5 Futures are starting to pull back on profit taking.
It is OPEX.
But if it dosen't work, that sez more than if they manage the same ole same ole stick save. Tues would be fearsome.
Israel Dil 18:28:00 GMT - 01/15/2016
it's not a panic (yet?), it's just a chaos :-)
Israel Dil 18:27:17 GMT - 01/15/2016
ita nor a panic (yet?), it's just a chaos :-)
dc CB 18:24:59 GMT - 01/15/2016
don't know what he said.
The PPT will give it a shot no doubt. 400-500pts Down is a big pill to ask the average Amurican to swallow.
After ignoring SToX in the weekend press last week - in deference to the O's "everything is coming up roses" SOTU....
whot will be the MSM line this weekend....I know: Don't panic...leave yr money where it is ...it will come back...long term "investing"....
london red 18:23:02 GMT - 01/15/2016
i was looking for 1843ish to buy. its entirely poss they frontran. i usually have more patience than mkt inclination to fall. if fails 1885-90 then i still am inclined to buy but if higher then my 43 is slightly compromised. still a buy but less conviction and with a eye to 1790.
Mtl JP 18:19:24 GMT - 01/15/2016
dc CB what d he say
expecting a stoks ramp up into the close ?
Mtl JP 18:11:21 GMT - 01/15/2016
low energy cost should be a boon to an economy
yet it appears that it is not - duh
apparently Merkel is not going
Israel Dil 15:24:01 GMT - 01/15/2016
shimon (hardcore currupt) peres came out heart cath yesterday and he said "I want to Davos and no matter what the doctors say. if Peres and hid alike gather, don't expect a Huan friendly outcome.
london red 15:15:26 GMT - 01/15/2016
JP, i have scaled out large part of cable shorts. stop is over 14605 for remaining 20%. its possible we see 140xx 142xx but id expect a move to 151-154 first before below 140 and 135.
Livingston nh 15:11:24 GMT - 01/15/2016
jp - yeah probably - markets are wrong as often as not -- look how many Fed moves were predicted last year
Mtl JP 15:10:10 GMT - 01/15/2016
ib / keep on dreaming that they should stick to reading and writing books
a motherload of them will be concentrated in Davos 20-23 January
Mtl JP 15:07:14 GMT - 01/15/2016
nh 15:02 r u suggesting 13:44 and 12:40 got it wrong ?
GVI Forex john bland 15:02:31 GMT - 01/15/2016
finally a better number UM is soft data anyway.
Livingston nh 15:02:25 GMT - 01/15/2016
The Fed is on the right path - it took too long but finally - they won't retreat because they can't - it would be too costly and 1/4 point cut is not going to increase the price of oil, resuscitate China or save Brazil // a recession call is always risky especially in a post industrial service based economy because most of the standards don't reflect different economic reality in most countries -- the problem w/ economics is that different times require different solutions, analogies don't cut it
Welcome to Zimbabwe. We'll all be bartering soon. Stock up flour sacks people. Dearie me.
Paris ib 14:52:43 GMT - 01/15/2016
Well then they should stick to reading and writing books. They have no business running the country. Or trying to. That is bonkers and we all know it. But this inertia has crept in. This idea that 'experts' have the answers is nuts. The results are there for all to see and yet the pundits keep pretending it will all work out. It is all so very Naked Emperor.
Mtl JP 14:51:06 GMT - 01/15/2016
do u think retail folks would actually be paid to take out a loan ?
GVI Forex john bland 14:47:18 GMT - 01/15/2016
no they do not. They are academics.
Paris ib 14:45:36 GMT - 01/15/2016
John.... does this Dudley person really think that is an adequate or appropriate response at this point? I mean seriously. Do they not understand FAILED POLICY?
GVI Forex john bland 14:44:15 GMT - 01/15/2016
-- negative rates could be on the table if needed
-- does not expect them to be needed
GVI Forex john bland 14:24:41 GMT - 01/15/2016
Ive been posting we are in a manufacturing recession for well over a month. The rest of the economy will follow.
Mtl JP 14:19:41 GMT - 01/15/2016
r u calling it R ecession yet ?
GVI Forex john bland 14:17:03 GMT - 01/15/2016
Another data miss. Bad figures are accumulating.
GVI Forex john bland 14:16:18 GMT - 01/15/2016
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization December 2015
yes us numbers gone from $hit to worse. 1.5 yards 1.10 today should keep it in check. nxt wk quite light topside so if stocks fall may try 11050/80 after ny cut.
yen 116.29 sup. if they panic then 115.52. but it that goes will be ugly intraday though they may buy dip as per usual to finish a fig off lows no less. still lets not get too far ahead of play.
Livingston nh 13:42:54 GMT - 01/15/2016
FI sectors away from Treasurys not faring as well - flight to safety and a hoped for reprieve from the Fed
Dudley - see if he echoes Bullard's concern about " inflation expectations" (the new NEXT BIG Thing)
Mtl JP 13:41:39 GMT - 01/15/2016
can u see a day when both stox and bonds collapse ?
GVI Forex john bland 13:35:16 GMT - 01/15/2016
Lousy numbers across the board. Good for bond prices! (falling yields)...
09:56 (US) Fed's Bullard (hawk; FOMC voter in 2016): does not see much more appreciation in dollar going forward - Q&A
- expects divergence in monetary policy between US and Europe has been priced in- should help curb further increases in value of the dollar
- does expect some problems in parts of oil market related to decline in oil prices
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex john bland 14:57:51 GMT - 01/14/2016
-- does not see much more appreciation of the dollar in 2016
GVI Forex john bland 14:20:07 GMT - 01/14/2016
St. Louis Fed President Bullard
-- Inflation expectations becoming worrisome
-- low oil prices bullish for economy
07:30 *(EU) ECB DEC MINUTES: 10bps cut in Deposit Rate seen as leaving room for more policy action; action seen to ensure price stability
- Reiterates view that monetary policy to remain accommodative for as long as necessary
- Risk on inaction clearly outweighed risk of no action
- Reiterates prepared to act using all instruments within mandate
- Possible downward drift in EU Harmonized CPI (HICP) expectations hard to reverse
- Council not unduly influenced by market expectations
- Some members sought a more aggressive cut of 20bps
- Others members concerned about side effects of a cut over 10bps
- Some members did not support policy change or would only support limited adjustments
- Option of expanding monthly purchases by more than 6 months and frontloading raised
- To review technical parameters in spring 2016
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex john bland 12:33:07 GMT - 01/14/2016
European Central Bank (ECB) Minutes for December 2015
Some members wanted a more aggressive rate cut. Others worried about rate cut side-effects ECB
"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy in order to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 13 January 2016, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion, and so to re-invest the £8.4 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the January 2016 gilt held in the Asset Purchase Facility."
euro. will need a fall from stocks today or downside is a given. abv 10905/07 and the squeeze is on to tgt 10950/70. on downside sups at 10840/44 then 10820. stops likely likely below fig and also belo 50% of 105xx/110xx and also cloud base 83-88 key zone. below there no coming back today.
not bad return wakfhoury. but try turning 1000 into 100,000 in less than 3 years. as a side bet. i agreed to write a book if i did it. now thats the real challenge.
GVI Forex01:10:29 GMT - 01/14/2016
19:30 *(AU) AUSTRALIA DEC EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -1.0K (first decline in 3 months and largest decline in 8 months) V -10.0KE;
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.9%E
- Participation Rate Rate: 65.1% v 65.2%e
- Full-Time Employment Change: 17.6K v +41.6K prior
- Part-Time Employment Change: -18.5K v +29.7K prior
- Hours Worked: +0.3M v -13.0M prior
- Prior employment change revised higher from +71.4K to +74.9K
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Israel Dil 20:25:26 GMT - 01/13/2016
anyone sees terror alert in DC just now?
Belgrade Knez 20:19:37 GMT - 01/13/2016
can you share your view about EURUSD please?
london red 19:56:37 GMT - 01/13/2016
s&p. low was 1833 when tested channel 1835. this time monthly channel at 1843. if gets dwn there can make monster shs with the channel as the neck and top of head the all time high. there is a fib at 1790 which can halt it if they dip to it but close month at/abv 1843 channel. below there is channel from 2008 at 1743. if under there shs likely in full swing and tgt the 38.2 fib at 1576 which also happens to be last high back in 2007. i doubt we see these later numbers as mkt never goes dwn, but there they are. this week id expect then to buy/frontrun the 1843 no more +/- a pt or two
Livingston nh 19:44:51 GMT - 01/13/2016
Say "goodnight Gracie"
dc CB 19:40:00 GMT - 01/13/2016
dc CB 19:25:57 GMT - 01/13/2016
Z---well a lot of the stuff I own is lined with silver...my smart phone, solar panels, computers the car.
cb - sorry, "month" was referring to Jan exp - not enough "juice" left to squeeze (I think the game for these folks is getting too dangerous)
dc CB 18:53:05 GMT - 01/13/2016
that's 1892.5, Monday's low----if that then 1880----1860----Dudley's DoRight 1831------Bullard's Bottom ---1813
dc CB 18:50:58 GMT - 01/13/2016
don't think that OPEX will save anything. If there is not another Short squeeze this week then that in itself points to Very Bad Stuff coming. If ESH takes out 1895.5 today....we be going down hard.
Maybe the Beige Book will.....naaaaaaaa
Livingston nh 18:45:11 GMT - 01/13/2016
cb - after last week's performance it doesn't look like OPEX will be enough to salvage the month - all week the market internals have been negative despite the prices rising to today's opening high -- sand running out under the seaside castle
Livingston nh 18:35:53 GMT - 01/13/2016
This is a last chance deal for the Fed -- push the Treasury holdings back into the market - it's the easiest way to normalize a market because it will provide price discovery, a realtime assistance in deciding on further rate moves (up or down) // market is still stretching for yield but the Mopes at the Fed don't see that as a risk
london red 18:27:02 GMT - 01/13/2016
1850 one week calls if we get down there. at about 184x is a channel line which provided sup for bounce last time we were down there. need to see under 1900 first 76.4% (cash not spoos).
loonie moving abv prev low 14310. a daily close tgts the 76.4 just over 145. since we tested 14310 yest and had a gd pullback, a close abv is required today or they may well take a deeper profit.
yen. 11796 is a fib. has been holding abv and outperforming stocks despite last few hour stock drop. may see a quick drop to 11760/50 if stocks cant muster a rally in last couple of hours.
dc CB 18:17:42 GMT - 01/13/2016
2 down one to go ....the 30. Then StoX may turn and OPEX punish the bears. If not I wonder how the Financial and the MainStream press will choose to ignore the MarkIT again this weekend. Nothing to see here ....move along. Don't spend all yr PowerBall winnings in on place.
nh- Good Question. Also there are plenty of producers who will step up and meet any unmet demand. I guess Russia's hope was to spook prices higher.
Livingston nh 14:56:23 GMT - 01/13/2016
Russia oil cuts - and replace revenue w/what? -- WTI is probing on a 4 hr chart the 21 ema (31.70) and above is the hrly 89 ema (31.95) // Iran US prisoners and Russia cuts might have spiked oil over the summer but the down trend now intact until SUPPLY starts to decline
GVI Forex john bland 14:43:24 GMT - 01/13/2016
Russia Deputy FinMin:
Russia may cut oil output -- REPORT
GVI Forex john bland 13:33:40 GMT - 01/13/2016
-- future rate rises gradual
-- Fed actions data driven
-- future rises depend on higher inflation
-- needs confidence 2% inflation target will be hit
GVI Forex john bland 13:30:01 GMT - 01/13/2016
Fed's Kaplan (Dallas)
-- ZIRP has costs
-- Bias for policy normalization
-- 3 to 4 hikes base case. Too soon to say what happens this year
levels to watch. yen 11805. some solid resistance there if broken will lead to a further recovery in the pair. stocks have move back off 1900 but yen likes to overshoot so could be a quick half fig if thru there. pivotal on a closing basis. cable. LT fib at 14370/82. should see an intraday bounce there. mkt is v bearish rightly so and mpc risks a 9-0 result but is st oversold and may see a bounce down there esp if doesnt bounce beforehand. worth covering shorts secured this week or a long with stop under 14350. loonie. mkt has bounced off 50hma and created a decent tail on hourly candle. if this sticks into top of hour this may be all the pullback of 14261 fib that we see. an hourly close abv 14261 will see the prev low 14310 tgted but will need oil lower to confirm. if does not then will see a bigger sell off from that 14310 than we saw off 14261.
Livingston nh 13:37:34 GMT - 01/12/2016
jp - the practitioners of QE have failed to grasp two salient points -- What is new money? and How does it move? -- Gov't debt is pre-existing money and if it doesn't move then it can't produce anything
Mtl JP 13:31:31 GMT - 01/12/2016
“There is no plan B, there is only one plan,”
“If you print enough money, you will always get inflation. Always,”
Praet ECB’s top economist
Gold is BoD with euros
Mtl JP 13:13:47 GMT - 01/12/2016
Villeroy Says ECB Can Act If Needed With Inflation Too Low
almost just in time - Korea’s FinMin nominee ready to prop up the sluggish economy
Mtl JP 01:16:55 GMT - 01/12/2016
China defends yuan, says betting against it is ‘ridiculous’
Wagers that the yuan will slump 10% or more against the dollar are “ridiculous and impossible,” a senior Chinese economic official said Monday, warning that China had a sufficient tool kit to defeat attacks on its currency.
“Attempts to sell short the renminbi will not succeed,” said Han Jun, deputy director of the office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, at a briefing at the Chinese Consulate in New York. “The expectations of markets can be changed.”
-- economy likely to justify more rate hikes in 2016.
-- inflation expectations well anchored.
-- economy likely to grow 2-2.5% of higher.
Mtl JP 01:39:19 GMT - 01/10/2016
nh no worry there are bigger pet-peeves
like Vlads “Leaders Number One” perfume available in Moscow only
Livingston nh 00:13:32 GMT - 01/10/2016
jp- HAHH, aaarrggh I have apparently lost another lengthy response to the vagaries of CYBERSPACE
Mtl JP 18:14:59 GMT - 01/09/2016
JAN. 8, 2016
ECB’s Lane Says Bond Buying Can Be Increased
The European Central Bank will expand its program of government bond purchases if that is needed to raise the inflation rate to its target, a member of its governing council, Philip Lane, said in an interview.
GVI Forex Blog 01:42:29 GMT - 01/09/2016
China CPI. Inflation at 1.60% y/y in line with expectations.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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