about 70/75% priced in. i dont think it should be anyway as much as that personally though i would buy the dip that would follow. if they do cut mkt will look for more so i doubt there will be too much downside as folk will look for boc to stay dovish.
GVI Forex john bland 16:06:36 GMT - 01/14/2016
It seems that almost everyone is calling for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada next Wednesday (Jan 20). Must be priced into CAD by now?
GVI Forex john bland 16:03:10 GMT - 01/14/2016
EUR trading weaker at the moment on all its key crosses.
dc CB 15:42:45 GMT - 01/14/2016
Bullard (now that he can vote) wants to maintain his franchise.
COMING SOON to a Theater Near You!!!!
BULLARD'S BOTTOM II.
*BULLARD: HAVE TO HIT A BOTTOM ON OIL PRICES 'SOMETIME'
NY JM 15:36:16 GMT - 01/14/2016
Stocks up and leading the way... look no further
GVI Forex john bland 15:12:39 GMT - 01/14/2016
US 2.062% -3.2bp
GB 1.689% -7.5bp
DE 0.494% -1.0bp
dc CB 14:43:03 GMT - 01/14/2016
Interesting tweet from NANEX. Re: Citadel (yes Ben Bernanke's shop)
(fyi: IEX is a fair, simple and transparent market center dedicated to investor protection. IEX is the first buyside owned venue, and IEX was the first Alternative Trading System ("ATS") to publicly publish its Form ATS, demonstrating its commitment to transparency. IEX is currently seeking SEC approval to become a registered national securities exchange.
IEX is a dark pool, more formally known as an alternative trading system, based in the United States. Started by Brad Katsuyama, it opened for its first day of trading on October 25, 2013)
that 195 level would be back up to the neck or thereabouts of the mini shs. squinting at your chart they many want to squeeze sellers of ma cross too.
maybe an indicator for others to go by put stocks usually dont go down as far as i expect them to so i average long s&p calls only a handful of times a year and its always on a strong sell off intraday. in any case thats my play i expect i will miss out or make the long call. i doubt janet wont have my back.
dc CB 14:24:13 GMT - 01/14/2016
red...30Y at 1PM. Last in Dec went for 2.978%. currently 2.867.
OPEX: SPY has PUTS 181,000 at 190 and 189K at 195. Nearest over 100K OI in the CALLS is at 195 with 110,000. all the other near strikes are below 40K.
So 195 is the magnet for Stabilization into Fri afternoon. whether that works is another story. See how it goes after they sell that $13bln in 30s.
Next week then down ??? But Monday Stocks are Closed
JPM reported. Stock up over $1 in preMarket.
JPM's balance sheet $2.352 trillion, down $221 billion from a year ago.
JPM increased in loan reserve by $89 million to $13.555 billion.
"Credit costs of $81mm primarily reflecting higher reserves driven by Oil & Gas" within the IB group and a "reserve build of ~$100mm driven by $60mm in Oil & Gas and $26mm in Metals & Mining"
Goldman SEZ: Abby Joseph Cohen, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Global Markets Institute.
The fair value for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is 2,10011% Upside in S&P 500 After an `Emotional' Selloff. “We need to put things into perspective. Stocks are probably the best place to be.”
*Forget Powerball, these stocks will actually make money: Pros.
*How Global Markets are holding up in a downturn.
*Best names to buy .....
*Traders taking down exposure...
*China worries overdone, buy this dip...
*This is an opportunity: Morgan Stanley.....
*Your Powerball questions answered.
*Bull Market Not Over.
Manny I Pulation
dc CB 21:14:35 GMT - 01/13/2016
funny how Sub $30 in Crude brings out the "financial ANALists"
so far today, I've seen 2. WAR between Iran and Saudis---Oil to $500!!!!!!
And then another Oil back to $100...can't recall the reason.
But I guess when The Main Stream Press and the Financial Press and CNBC(Comedians with Stocks Drinking Coffee), spend INK and Screen Time schooling in How to Spend Your PowerBall Winnings...and How to pick a Lottery Number so You Won't ahve to SHARE the Prize.
Then Oil at $100, or $500...well the ODDS are alot less that 292Million to 1...........So I calls my Broker and SEZ BUY ME SOME OIL.
dc CB 21:01:01 GMT - 01/13/2016
Turn THOSE MACHINES BACK ON>>>>>TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!!!!
Israel Dil 20:58:53 GMT - 01/13/2016
The only relevant information to any individual is the size of the assets and their liquidity. The rest is doodoo in trader's reality; -)
Hillegom Purk 20:55:32 GMT - 01/13/2016
Problem is, which info is right and what is horse doo doo...
Livingston nh 20:55:14 GMT - 01/13/2016
You can't cure deflation w/ interest rates -- there has been a lot of silliness about productivity "declining" but in a service based post industrial economy it is no longer a valid measure of ANYTHING - most jobs in the US are based on regulation (i.e. TAXES) so the only way to free up labor resource is to reduce regulation -- Niall Ferguson, a good historian (with whom I disagree w/ on nearly everything economic) has made this point in his new epistle
Paris ib 20:53:29 GMT - 01/13/2016
Sad really. All our 'dear leaders' are just completely useless, if not also corrupt and downright wicked. Interesting era to be living in. Maybe it just feels that way because we have more information now. But it sure feels that way. :-)
GVI Forex john bland 20:51:43 GMT - 01/13/2016
No idea. they are already looking pretty ridiculous now.
Paris ib 20:50:19 GMT - 01/13/2016
How can they back away without looking even more incompetent than they already do? 4 hikes means one a quarter. No hike? USD takes a beating. No good options. The dike bursts.
dc CB 20:48:29 GMT - 01/13/2016
Two days ago we reported that one half of JPM's Croatian "Duo of Doom", namely equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, became every BTFDer's worst enemy when he said that the time of BTFDing is over, and a regime change has arrived one in which rallies are to be sold.
(now)....the legendary "Gandalf" (as dubbed first by Bloomberg) quant Marko Kolanovic, who needs no introduction on this website, and whose every prediction starting in late August turned out just as predicted...
JPM has so far proved to be Not a Muppet Raper...like another un-mentionalble ToBigToProsecute "BanK with no depositors or branches or ATMs"
Also a reaction to the "mixed" Beige Book. Fed should start backing away from their four rate hike time line for 2016. Another black eye?
Israel Dil 20:47:24 GMT - 01/13/2016
the swap game that turned into deadly swamp, that's how the future history will describe the present. commodities and gold, FWIW
Paris ib 20:46:13 GMT - 01/13/2016
Chatter? I think we all know it's coming. What is interesting IMVHO is Australia where they have managed to avoid recession for over 20 years and now every average Joe is hocked up to the eyeballs, the mining sector has tanked the property market is in the process of, well, turning.
What ifs? What if this is just the fall out from the Lehman Brothers crisis of 2008 (which had been previously been delayed by mad money printing by crazy Central Banks?). All that they supposedly saved us from is now upon us, with interest. FWIW this started in the U.S. and - while valiant efforts have been made to export it to the rest of the world (thank you so much for the European bond market crisis) - the centre of the storm is (once again) the USA. How does that impact the election I wonder.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:42:17 GMT - 01/13/2016
Chatter is risk of US recession
Livingston nh 20:33:07 GMT - 01/13/2016
Edwards (like others) are well reasoned - the calls tend to be extreme because of extrapolation and good analogies // the Fed has screwed up interest rates and valuations so it looks like you might get X and you get Y -- nobig al as long as you don't judge lt effects based on st F***-ups
Israel Dil 20:31:46 GMT - 01/13/2016
hyper inflation + crashing stox @ G8 nation and China, do we talk about IF or WHEN scenario?
Paris ib 20:26:41 GMT - 01/13/2016
Generally the consensus is never right!! Lot of wild calls out there at the moment. Everyone is waiting for the end of the world, which is a bit weird. What is it? The media and the creepy films being produced? Still correction is on the cards. When is the FED supposed to hike again? Every three months or so? March? Gonna be an interesting place to be.
GVI Forex john bland 20:20:37 GMT - 01/13/2016
No idea. Best way to make a name for yourself is to make a wild call and be lucky. Nobody remembers if you call the consensus and are right!
Paris ib 20:19:12 GMT - 01/13/2016
550 seems a long way away. Still the bears are having a party and sell the rally as hard as you like is the way to go.
Economic recovery? Don't make me laugh.
USD won't be far behind IMVHO.
london red 20:16:25 GMT - 01/13/2016
john i wonder how much money he got paid to draw a line thru 2002 and 2009 lows. beats me how some of these folk are allowed to pull a shift.
GVI Forex john bland 20:08:28 GMT - 01/13/2016
Albert Edwards SocGen:
"if I am right, S&P is headed for 550"
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