GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:10 GMT 01/14/2016 - My Profile
Would need an hourly close above 1.0942 to suggest a risk for the 1.0970 high. HOD 1.0943
Otherwise EURUSD remains more cross than USD driven and why convictions are fragile.
GBP getting some relief from the MPC but nothing new there that I can see except some disappointment that the vote was still 8-1
london red 12:33:53 GMT - 01/14/2016
adding to what viies said, re options, from what i see there is a lot of downside cover which is making progress to the downside difficult for euro. topside is less covered particularly next week. this week there a bit 110-111 so its unlikely we move abv there this week but next week almost nothing abv 110 relatively speaking.
Tallinn viies 11:26:26 GMT - 01/14/2016
I think january lows has been made on brent crude.
possibilities to see bounce up to 34,00 which is more than 10% up from here.
brent will bring along eurusd.
I have been many months bearish on euro but now I see possibility that sharks may start stop hunt soon. because important levels very close.
backround of the moves comes mostly from expectations regarding ECB and FED moves...
Current scenario which is prevailing that ECB has still need to cut rates further as lower oil doesnt help to fullfill 2% inflation target.
other prevailing view is that FED mentioned they gonna hike rate 4 times this year.
Last weeks people starting to question those prevailing expectations. More likely that ECB will not lower rates anytime soon and FED will hike but maybe only 2 times per year. So eurusd rate needs to reprice based on changed outlook.
Euro short positions on IMM still very big 156K contracts. there is room for stup hunt. last year in january IMM short were approx 220k contracts. eurusd were at that 1,05. then in august when euro traded for a day at 1,17 the IMM chorts were appr 60k contracts. basically 1200 points move on eurusd ment approx 160k contracts. if to look current IMM short positions then those shorts (156k contracts) has been built with eurusd move from 1,1450 to 1,0550. let say average rate is 1,1000.
those short position built up from august 2015 till now. currently euro is trading near 1,09 and for unknown reasons for me can not go lower altough brent is down 30% from the highs of the january.
So for me things starting to look bit shaky if euro will be able to move above december top which is 1,1060. if stop hunt starts then 1,17 may come very quickly. just because there are too many short positions with average price too close to current market prices. last year when 160k short contracts were covered euro moved 1200 points. why not this time?
so as long as 1,1060 holds Im following my base scenario that euro may move down to parity but if 1,1060 key resistance taken I will treat january lows as yearly lows for 2016.
better to use opitions to covered upside risks but of course it can be done with spot and decent money management also.
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