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Paris ib  09:39:43 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Wtr.... :-))

Yeah well they are fictious trades and immaginary farms so it's all good.

Perth Wtr  09:26:57 GMT - 08/16/2016  
Paris ib, tell that to someone who went long huge at 116.xx all in, double triple quadruple up selling all farms

Paris ib  08:41:28 GMT - 08/16/2016  
The U.S. External Debt is HUGE, however, the one remarkable factor is that it is mostly denominated in USDs. So FX risk sits with the holders of U.S. debt. A fall in the value of the USD would result in a capital loss for foreigners and NOT an increase in debt for the U.S. (which is preferable to say the position of Thailand before the Asian crisis). Greece was in a similar position: lots of external debt held in Euros. When and if a debt crisis takes place in the U.S. the strain will be seen in the debt markets and in the currency. Initially in the debt market (rising yields) and then in the currency. Currency risk relating to the USD is still alive and well.

U.S. External Debt

Paris ib  08:33:45 GMT - 08/16/2016  
"The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $202.8 billion.

Taking into account transactions in both foreign and U.S. securities, net foreign sales of long-term securities were $3.6 billion. After.. adjustments... overall net foreign sales of long-term securities are estimated to have been $38.9 billion in June."

Capital inflows turn to capital OUTFLOWS.

TIC data released yesterday

Paris ib  08:29:18 GMT - 08/16/2016  
And here we go. The test of 100 in USD/JPY will be interesting. After all the attempts to bolster the USD/JPY (from ABE etc.) I doubt they have very much left. So maybe we go through this time without a fight. Funny old world.

Paris ib  16:02:39 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Trump's plan essentially means the U.S. will spend less on the military. Which would be a good thing. If other countries want to take up the slack and increase their military spending that would be up to them and not necessarily a good thing. Hillary, of course, is pro-war in a big way. So less positive IMVHO. How all this plays out remains to be seen.

Paris ib  15:11:32 GMT - 08/10/2016  
MI - I assume most of this expense for 'defence' is redundant and not necessary. The defence industry is the military attack industry. I don't think anyone should pay for it. We should stop funding the monster. I do not see these threats that the U.S. continues to talk about. I don't believe any of if FWIW. The threats.... come from the U.S. itself. It's the same play book over and over again.

The Quiet American

West Palm beach MI  14:47:29 GMT - 08/10/2016  
ib, not to get political but what happens if the US decides not to pay for the defense of other countries and asks them to pay their own way. Japan, South Korea, Europe to name a few.

This is what trump wants to do.

Paris ib  13:33:18 GMT - 08/10/2016  
SFH that is the interesting question. If they can find someone else to provide the cash they will, by hook or by crook. It's been ongoing since WWII so you never know. Never say never. If money inflows start up again then all bets are off. In the sense that the USD will be saved. So I guess the main thing is to keep an open mind as we move forward. :-)

LONDON SFH  13:30:56 GMT - 08/10/2016  
ib I fully agree with you....but they seem to always find a victim willing to replace the last. China is happy to buy what the Japanese don't want any more so who will be next.

Paris ib  13:28:42 GMT - 08/10/2016  
SFH - maybe but that fact is irrelevant. Japan is not a corporate. And the same can be said for the States. Does it not strike you as slightly nuts that this bankrupt nation, Japan, is financing the United States and has done for decades? One way of the other the U.S. has been bleeding nations around the world dry to finance military adventurism and a standard of living it can no longer support. IMVHO that era is coming to an end, which should be good for everyone (except maybe for the imperial ambitions of the deviants in the military industrial complex).

Major Holders of U.S. Securities

Paris ib  13:24:22 GMT - 08/10/2016  
SFH - I don't think this has anything to do with Japanese growth or statistics either. I believe it represents a fundamental shift in long term international capital flows and an economic rebalancing. But I do think the U.S. has been resisting this shift and is wary of the consequences.

LONDON SFH  13:23:43 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Just being pedantic reallY... But Japan is a total mess and the Yen strength is just not based on anything fundamental,,,,if they were a corporate they would be bankrupt

Paris ib  13:21:36 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Wtr - FWIW I think we will struggle to get through 100 to start with, I think it will be defended. Ultimately yes a target of 80.

LONDON SFH  13:19:28 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Hi again IB-

If the $ is to weaken on fundamental basis, then I can't see Japanese growth/inflation/debt-to-gdp ratio figures being the reasons....I think the Fed would be happy to let the $ weaken as they often have in the past and would use it to help keep growth alive...I don't see this as a pause but just a normal exchange rate fluctutation

Perth Wtr  13:18:02 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Agree ib. Usd is toppish in that 5y range. Fall back to 80 next ?

Paris ib  13:15:56 GMT - 08/10/2016  
SFH yeah I know. But I'm only really interested in the USD against the majors, specifically against the JPY the EUR. I'm not saying this is a one way street but I see this as PART II after the USD recovery we saw after the 2008 financial market crisis. We have had a pause but, in my view, that is all we have had: a pause. And in this second round of USD weakness and the leading indicator is the USD/JPY. FWIW

LONDON SFH  13:10:50 GMT - 08/10/2016  
...95.5 currently given the past 5y range of 73.67-100.33 ... I think the Fed would be very happy to see a weaker $ but it despite unelectable Presidential candidates it is the ROW that continues to screw up their economies so badly that $ is the only place to be

LONDON SFH  13:08:57 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Paris ib 12:59 GMT 08/10/2016

Look at DXY....the $ is trading pretty strong considering the way you paint it

Paris ib  12:59:34 GMT - 08/10/2016  
Heading into an election - where both the candidates embody just how sad the American reality has become - with no chance of a rate hike and no real likelihood of a sustained economic recovery.... the USD decline continues, despite all the attempts by the ABE Government to weaken the JPY and regardless of all the bad press around Europe (migrants, bank stress, terrorism, blah, blah, blah...). Those hoping for the New American Century will be waiting for some time. And those hoping for a resurgence of foreign capital inflows to the States, boosting the economy and the USD, will be waiting for a very, very long time.

Mtl JP  16:09:52 GMT - 04/29/2016  
... Unfortunately for the U.S. I think they squandered their status as the sole remaining global power...

Unfortunately ? Isn't there a trade opportunity there somehow , somewhere - IF true could one not expect the allegedly dying power to increase spending on bullets and bombs ?

nw kw  16:08:09 GMT - 04/29/2016  
xagaud weely past 200 mv.

nw kw  16:03:28 GMT - 04/29/2016  
xagaud at biggest r im out but planning to see event but not yet. if not rba set up.

Paris ib  15:34:51 GMT - 04/29/2016  
I think we need to think outside the box and see the really, really big picture. Say the Japanese are repatriating, for their own reasons or because of a some increased concern about the U.S.A., say China has the same worries, throw in Saudi Arabia just for the h.ll of it. What you have is a real possibility (I'm not saying it's going to happen but you have to consider that it is certainly possible) that the USD and U.S. Treasuries fall out of favour (say mostly for geopolitical reasons or perhaps just because the USD's status as an international reserve currency has been dented) what you would need to watch for is a rise in U.S. yields as foreigners exit the market... but essentially what is possible is a debt spiral. And that means big trouble. If you were a foreign investor with a massive exposure to U.S. Treasuries what would you be doing now and where are your risks? One big risk associated with the U.S. is that your assets get frozen on some flimsy beat-up justification. Just look what happened to Iran. They are never going to get their billions back.

Unfortunately for the U.S. I think they squandered their status as the sole remaining global power and this is the result. And this latent 'rogue status' which is now associated with the U.S. (in the sense that they can freeze assets or start bombing nations pretty much on a whim) means that you should at least consider that the global geopolitical map has changed and changed radically. A Clinton Presidency would make things worse IMVHO. Trump might be better. :-)

Miami JN  15:24:10 GMT - 04/29/2016  
ugh in usdjpy. BOJ where are you????

Paris ib  14:47:18 GMT - 04/29/2016  
Do we have panic yet? Soon?

Paris ib  13:33:15 GMT - 04/06/2016  
The USD: not waving, drowning.

Paris ib  15:45:09 GMT - 04/05/2016  
That break below 110 looks like it's coming up, MUCH earlier than I expected. Panic strikes?

Paris ib  13:05:01 GMT - 04/01/2016  
The data doesn't change the general picture. No reason to expect a new USD bull trend but I'm not expecting a USD meltdown either. Ongoing, steady USD selling is about where it's at. EUR/USD at the high - more or less - for 2016. USD/JPY dithering here. We need a decisive break below 110 to really get going. But with the BoJ hovering that will be harder to achieve than it sounds. Still, the trend is your friend and the USD trend so far this year is down. gl gt

Paris ib  07:26:35 GMT - 03/17/2016  
Paris ib 17:22 GMT March 10, 2016
USD sell off PART II: Reply
And now..... what? A break below 112.00 in JPY. More upside in GOLD. And a break above 1.1200 in EUR USD.

And then? More of the same.


More of the same....

Hillegom Purk  17:59:55 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Do not forget your rubber, since you did NOT put in a STOP DIL

Israel Dil  17:50:51 GMT - 03/10/2016  

Entry: 1.1215 Target: Stop:
have a great weekend.... I will be back next Wednesday

Paris ib  17:22:36 GMT - 03/10/2016  
And now..... what? A break below 112.00 in JPY. More upside in GOLD. And a break above 1.1200 in EUR USD.

And then? More of the same.

Mtl JP  16:37:25 GMT - 02/24/2016

Paris ib  16:35:11 GMT - 02/24/2016  
“The yen isn’t the only currency that has appreciated,” Mr. Kuroda said, and added that the phenomenon was due to the dollar’s broad weakness. “Most of the world’s major currencies have strengthened (versus the U.S. currency).”....

WSJ... Kuroda last night

Hillegom Purk  16:31:49 GMT - 02/24/2016  
Good IB, make money, act accordingly, sell on blips. Today perect example!

Paris ib  16:30:24 GMT - 02/24/2016  
The biggie is the USD.... we are not going to get a decent clear out on global financial markets until the USD starts to really see some selling pressure... USD/JPY still leading and that USD selling pressure is starting to build. Risk is all to the downside IMVHO. 09:40:14 GMT - 02/19/2016  
"The offshoring of US manufacturing and professional service jobs to Asia stopped the growth of consumer demand in the US, decimated the middle class...
Without growth in consumer incomes to drive the economy, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan substituted the growth in consumer debt...
Using the smoke and mirrors of under-reported inflation and unemployment, the US government kept alive the appearance of economic recovery. Foreigners fooled by the deception continue to support the US dollar by holding US financial instruments....
By understating inflation, the US government has overstated GDP growth....
...if the jobs have been sent offshore, monetary and fiscal policy cannot work....."

Little bit of joy from Dr. Roberts

Paris ib  09:24:53 GMT - 02/18/2016  
Is there a long term decline taking place?

Take a look at this for clues:


Mtl JP  13:18:17 GMT - 02/17/2016  
JY 11:52 / stocks need to go uP and euro needs to go S of 1.1120 then usdyen uP

HK RF@  12:02:39 GMT - 02/17/2016  

What looks like 115 for yen, may turn to 111, not a great time to take action.

UK JY  11:52:41 GMT - 02/17/2016  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Heading for 115? Agree or disagree?

GVI Forex john bland  11:10:11 GMT - 02/17/2016  
agree 100% re: repatriations to Japan.

London Chris  10:29:38 GMT - 02/17/2016  
No sell off as stocks turned around to risk on

Paris ib  10:12:13 GMT - 02/17/2016  
John - only what is part of the 'narrative' gets any press. It looks to me like the USD/JPY sell off was at least partly to do with repatriation.

GVI Forex john bland  10:08:35 GMT - 02/17/2016  
ib- good points. Somehow the complete activity seems to get buried.

Paris ib  09:57:58 GMT - 02/17/2016  
Japan and China both sold Treasuries in December and, as we know, in January the selling was more substantial.

Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries

Paris ib  09:56:19 GMT - 02/17/2016  
"According to the latest Fed data, after a drop of $12 billion in the first week of the year, another $34.5 billion in Treasuries held in custody was sold in the week ended January 13... the... most custody holdings "outflowing" start to the year in history."

"The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $114.0 billion.... After including adjustments... overall net foreign SALES of long-term securities are estimated to have been $43.4 billion in December."

Repatriation anyone?

TIC data confirms Treasury selling

Hillegom Purk  16:49:44 GMT - 02/16/2016  
IB, ok so your guess is that the down trend will start now. Good, that is better than in the middle or at the end!For months i have kiwi longs and ozmond longs. I add, i scale i take, i see it come and go. I also short at certain highs, but always keep some for ozmond 100, and Kiwi 90.
Cheers IB!

Israel Dil  16:47:04 GMT - 02/16/2016  

don't you dare to underestimate IB because she is beautiful and hot gorgeous, she is really good to identify trends and money making chances... she is not a day trader in definition, her real calls worth the 10KT+ stones, not the leftover.

Paris ib  16:46:02 GMT - 02/16/2016  
And a failure to break 1900 opens the way for more selling in S and P.

Triggers anyone? I don't have any right now.

Paris ib  16:44:40 GMT - 02/16/2016  
Hi Purk Agnostic on the AUD at the moment. Don't trade the NZD. Square in USD/JPY but a failure to break and hold above 114.00 opens the way for more downside. Right now we are spinning the wheels here. The Euro is frustrating, going nowhere and I don't expect it to make a huge move either way. USD/JPY still the one to watch. I am really concerned about the geopolitics of stuff at the moment. I don't think the market is paying attention but I don't really know what it means... except maybe buy GOLD on dips.

What you got on the AUD?

Israel Dil  16:40:57 GMT - 02/16/2016  
Hi ib -how your book trades about USD/JPY , 110-120 or 105-115 ?

Israel Dil  16:40:12 GMT - 02/16/2016  
Hi ib -hiw your book trades about USD/JPY , 110-120 or 105-115 ?

Hillegom Purk  16:37:04 GMT - 02/16/2016  
Euh Ib, i see ozmond down, see kiwi down, see e/u down, where do you see usd selling?

Hillegom Purk  16:37:04 GMT - 02/16/2016  
Euh Ib, i see ozmond down, see kiwi down, see e/u down, where do you see usd selling?

Paris ib  16:14:22 GMT - 02/16/2016  
Pre holiday short covering then a U.S. holiday and now it's straight back to selling the USD.

Why weak economic data out of the U.S. surprises anyone is beyond me. Oh yeah, that narrative again. Forgot.

Paris ib  08:34:08 GMT - 02/12/2016  
Looks like we are having a 'pause' day today.

Paris ib  08:33:16 GMT - 02/12/2016  
Don't know how I missed this but I did:

"According to the latest Fed data, after a drop of $12 billion in the first week of the year, another $34.5 billion in Treasuries held in custody was sold in the week ended January 13... the... most custody holdings "outflowing" start to the year in history."

The pundits are fixated on China but it could just as easily be Japan liquidating Treasury holdings.

Repatriation is part of the story

nw kw  12:15:04 GMT - 02/11/2016  
chf/jpy tanking support?

Paris ib  12:12:20 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Someone saw this coming.

Russian gold reserves

Paris ib  12:10:12 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Theme: anything BUT the USD. And we don't even have panic yet.

GOLD now up 3.23 percent on the day.

Russia might have seen the Rouble trashed but the Russian Central Bank was a huge GOLD buyer last year.

The deviants might not have all the cards.

hk ab  11:20:56 GMT - 02/11/2016  
I would worry those bangsters who shorted artificially from 1600-1700 to close their positions rather.......

This has to be a big show and big level to watch.

HK RF@  11:18:46 GMT - 02/11/2016  

Gold is not backed by consumer spending this time, much less if there is any industrial(shrinking) demand.

People have no money for luxuries, and crushing stox will only cause deflation and money shortage.

If some big players pull prices up, it is a good speculative reason to join, but when correction will start, it will be very big and fast.

Paris ib  11:10:46 GMT - 02/11/2016  
GOLD is part of the USD sell off. Up 2.5 percent today.

Who bought GOLD recently? Russia and China.

kl fs  09:13:19 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Mr. Sakakibara got it right though re. usdjpy

Paris ib  09:04:48 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Kyle Bass: one trick pony.

Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass... says that "this has been one of the worst years in the last ten."

That would have been 2015. And he has been a mega bull on USD JPY for a very long time. It would have worked for a while, the move from 80 to 125 can not be ignored. But Bass thinks he is smarter than he actually is. All the people who got the Sub Prime melt down were not THAT smart. They were simply not insane.

kl shawn  08:57:08 GMT - 02/11/2016  
yeah someone f.up usdjpy, only 1 week ago we heard rosy 130 thing

'Paris' 'ib'  08:55:12 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Yeah nut cases everywhere so you gotta think for yourself.

AUD under pressure here. JPY still the focus. Every time I think we have a pause the bottom falls out of this one.

'Hillegom' 'Purk'  08:51:46 GMT - 02/11/2016  
There are a lot of conspiracies out there but also a lot of nutcases who find everything a conspiracy. I also believe that someone f.u. and something went terribly wrong... everywhere..
For now, trust you see that corrections are on their way. That said, 106 also possible for a 400 pip back 11026...

Paris ib  08:48:00 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Purk I was totally mainstream until a few years after 9 11 when I happened on a link on Bull not Bull (now no longer updated). When I came to understand that maybe 9 11 was NOT what 'they' said it was... Then you start to wonder about a lot of things. IMVHO the guys behind 9 11 totally stuffed up. They took a huge risk, and despite the control of the mainstream media, there are too many people who question what is going on. In short 9 11 was a mistake by the powers-that-be. Seriously I wouldn't be surprised if it were confirmed that the Yanks never did get to the moon after all. 10 years ago I used to laugh at the conspiracy nuts. Trouble is the conspiracies now have more predictive power than the mainstream media. So if you go with the scientific method (keep a theory as long as it has predictive power) you have to be a conspiracy theorist. Who'd have thought it? :-)


'Hillegom' 'Purk'  08:37:04 GMT - 02/11/2016  
IB, It is hard for our fake governments to tell people that they are wrong. Guess they are afraid for civil unrest when they tell us what is really cookin'. Only thing is, more and more people are aware now and do not believe governments anymore. The rest is at work and do not give a damn except when they become unemployed...
We are not ruled by our governments, know that for 20-30 years, first i thought i was an idiot (well still am) but more and more signs are coming to the surface.

Paris ib  08:32:07 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Thanks Purk. What really occupies my mind is the real world consequences of this massive change in the global economic order and how to deal with it.

First risk: the nut cases decide to bomb everyone in a fit of pique.
Second risk: massive - through probably brief - economic slow down. (Though I would suggest that the USD block will have a longer lasting economic downturn.)

Stock up on Tuna Fish? No I don't think so. :-)

'Hillegom' 'Purk'  08:27:19 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Good show IB. You called it, and trust you will get lots of Doekoe!

bali sja  08:24:14 GMT - 02/11/2016  
the so called legend will come out and say buy usdjpy for the-nth time soon....zzzz

Paris ib  08:22:36 GMT - 02/11/2016  
Next round of USD weakness coming up. EUR USD joining in but the bigger mover remains the USD JPY. Break of 112 opens the way for a near term test of 110 with a longer term target of 100, though I see no reason why we can't see 80 again - eventually.

Only caveat: the nut cases at the Central Banks of the world.

Paris ib  20:36:21 GMT - 02/10/2016  
Think so red.

london red  20:34:20 GMT - 02/10/2016  
tested. if we are not done here it will be bloody tomorrow.

Paris ib  20:28:50 GMT - 02/10/2016  
The USD is in trouble. Big time. Period.

Israel Dil  16:12:40 GMT - 02/05/2016  

no European leader will take the risk to let terror to spread through his nation. the smarter in Europe know why Muammar and Saddam ended as they ended and the state of Iraq and Lybia doesn't make any leader to withdraw from the role of US puppets.

in 1912 USA was in feferal surplus, in 1913 the FED established and suddenly the USA started to be part of conflicts very far from its territory.

so, get rid of ALL European "royalty", turn back the Federal Reserve into US (national) arm, revoke power from multinationals, that's the only way to protect humanity.

Paris ib  15:59:30 GMT - 02/05/2016  
Friday afternoon belongs to U.S. traders... however in the big bad world the tectonic shift continues.

"the question is how long Western Europe will be willing to forego its trade and investment interests by accepting U.S.-sponsored sanctions against Russia, Iran and other economies. Germany, Italy and France already are feeling the strains."

According to Michael Hudson we are at:

The Dollar Bloc’s Financial Curtain

Paris ib  10:38:10 GMT - 02/05/2016  
Picked up an old FT an happened on this quote:

Mr Lapthorne "Earnings have never been cut this dramatically outside a recession. The worst earnings momentum on the planet is not in Asia, it's not emerging markets, it's not in Europe. It's in the US." FT 16/17 January 2016

Doom mongers

'Livingston' 'nh'  19:02:01 GMT - 02/03/2016  
Amazing every central banker in the world has been trying to get a weaker currency and who knew that if you hiked 1/4 point you could have it all!!

Paris ib  18:57:42 GMT - 02/03/2016  
But make no mistake this is a USD sell off. And there are no limits.

Paris ib  18:56:44 GMT - 02/03/2016  
Jay - yes it is. And the positions out there are huge.
Big things afoot.
Wait for the next Lehman announcement.

Paris ib  18:55:04 GMT - 02/03/2016  
For which market?
For geo politics?
Good news: less wars.
However the deviants are just that and might just pull out the stops and really go for some last attempt to blow up the world in toto.

First things first: unless you spend USDs you do NOT want to hold USD denominated bonds. The U.S. Government funding programme is in big trouble. Commodities may have bottomed at least in USD terms. I like the Rouble quite frankly.

'Livingston' 'nh'  18:52:56 GMT - 02/03/2016  
ib - perhaps you could explain the implications for a USD in trouble?

Paris ib  18:52:56 GMT - 02/03/2016  
Exit the USD asap.
That little window of opportunity before panic emerges is closing fast.
And stop up your ears to 'the narrative'.

NY Jay  18:52:45 GMT - 02/03/2016  
IB, this is a liquidating market.

Paris ib  18:47:56 GMT - 02/03/2016  
Today -so far - the USD has lost:
1.85 percent against the Euro
2.26 percent against the JPY
1.90 percent against the AUD

This currency is in trouble.
This is NOT short covering in AUD, JPY, Euro etc., this is selling.
Deal with the reality. NOT the narrative.

Paris ib  15:28:57 GMT - 02/03/2016  
Looks like the market is just going to go for it at this point. No bounce. NFP can't really save this baby. FED credibility is shot anyhow. USD/JPY as usual remains the canary in the coal mine and stocks are toast.

Paris ib  10:48:51 GMT - 02/02/2016  
Missed chances are part of the deal.

'Hillegom' 'Purk'  10:47:56 GMT - 02/02/2016  
Missed chance, because February 2016 will decide the direction for a few months...

Paris ib  10:45:18 GMT - 02/02/2016  
Given the current volatility I don't see a lot of value in getting heavily involved in the market. I'm waiting and watching. Often NOT trading is the absolute best strategy. Especially when the market is being gamed. But that's just my opinion.

'Hillegom' 'Purk'  10:37:40 GMT - 02/02/2016  
So IB, than you must be full of shorts in usd/jpy and long in e/u etc etc?

Trust you will be filthy rich and sad that i was not the one listened to you.

Paris ib  10:29:12 GMT - 02/02/2016  
It's a slow burn but the USD is starting to look under pressure. The BoJ rode to the rescue last week. But that's not a game you can play forever. Funny old world. There is all this official manipulation and game playing going on but the fundamentals will out. The USD is in trouble. It is unclear just how much trouble the rest of the world's paper money is in. Meanwhile over in Australia they have some policy responses ready. Namely: raise taxes. You can't make this stuff up. A bit of a shell game, with a bit of a temporary offset offered as a reward, but essentially more TAX to the Federal Government.... and a phasing out of State Governments is on the cards. Local representation? So last century.

Let's raise the GST and give the extra tax to the Federal Government

Paris ib  14:42:25 GMT - 01/20/2016  

"in November... a monthly net TIC outflow of $3.2 billion....

After including adjustments, such as estimates of unrecorded principal payments to foreigners on U.S. asset-backed securities, overall net foreign purchases of long-term securities are estimated to have been $18.2 billion"...

The capital inflows have been absent now for quite some time.

TIC data November 2015

Israel Dil  20:20:58 GMT - 01/19/2016  
don't you trust the FED banksters to outsource the USD printing and ship it back to USA and even name that foreign/external funding?

Paris ib  20:18:52 GMT - 01/19/2016  
How would I know? Without external funding the U.S. economy is in trouble. That's what we have now.

Israel Dil  20:15:01 GMT - 01/19/2016  

do you mean that pension funds will go belly up soon and social unrest will spread widely (industrial) worldwide in Russian (Ukranian) borsht style?

Paris ib  20:00:27 GMT - 01/19/2016  
Don't matter.

Sooner or later it will become clear WHERE the problem is. And it's not China.

Israel Dil  19:54:09 GMT - 01/19/2016  

try not to underestimate today's happy hour effect about the stox ;-)

here it goes, or not

Paris ib  19:45:36 GMT - 01/19/2016  
The U.S. is back from holiday and we are back to selling stocks and the USD. More to come.

Paris ib  15:11:56 GMT - 01/15/2016  
nh - Let's see how 2016 ends up. My take (as you know) is that a major structural readjustment has been DELAYED by ill-considered and essentially foolhardy actions of 'the authorities'. In some cases in fact (consider TARP) those actions were possibly close to criminal. At any rate because of this wall of (printed) money the readjustment has been DELAYED. But we are getting there. IMVHO that is. End year 2016 we will see. But I think we are there now.


Livingston nh  15:08:14 GMT - 01/15/2016  
EVERY time the market shakes a bit the guys with the "REPENT, the END is Nigh" placards are marching around

Good News doesn't sell papers (digital or not)

Paris ib  15:04:37 GMT - 01/15/2016  
Since Lehman and the initial USD sell off the 'authorities' (and I use the term loosely) have worked overtime to export the crisis to other areas around the world and to shore up the USD's status as an international reserve currency. They have done a pretty good job it must be said. But you can't fight major turning points forever. This is round two. And this time the aforementioned 'authorities' have spent their bullets and have lost their credibility. In this round we will have real world economic consequences and it will be unpleasant.

A bit of gloom from Dimitri

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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