Yeah well they are fictious trades and immaginary farms so it's all good.
Perth Wtr 09:26:57 GMT - 08/16/2016
Paris ib, tell that to someone who went long huge at 116.xx all in, double triple quadruple up selling all farms
Paris ib 08:41:28 GMT - 08/16/2016
The U.S. External Debt is HUGE, however, the one remarkable factor is that it is mostly denominated in USDs. So FX risk sits with the holders of U.S. debt. A fall in the value of the USD would result in a capital loss for foreigners and NOT an increase in debt for the U.S. (which is preferable to say the position of Thailand before the Asian crisis). Greece was in a similar position: lots of external debt held in Euros. When and if a debt crisis takes place in the U.S. the strain will be seen in the debt markets and in the currency. Initially in the debt market (rising yields) and then in the currency. Currency risk relating to the USD is still alive and well.
"The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $202.8 billion.
Taking into account transactions in both foreign and U.S. securities, net foreign sales of long-term securities were $3.6 billion. After.. adjustments... overall net foreign sales of long-term securities are estimated to have been $38.9 billion in June."
And here we go. The test of 100 in USD/JPY will be interesting. After all the attempts to bolster the USD/JPY (from ABE etc.) I doubt they have very much left. So maybe we go through this time without a fight. Funny old world.
Paris ib 16:02:39 GMT - 08/10/2016
Trump's plan essentially means the U.S. will spend less on the military. Which would be a good thing. If other countries want to take up the slack and increase their military spending that would be up to them and not necessarily a good thing. Hillary, of course, is pro-war in a big way. So less positive IMVHO. How all this plays out remains to be seen.
Paris ib 15:11:32 GMT - 08/10/2016
MI - I assume most of this expense for 'defence' is redundant and not necessary. The defence industry is the military attack industry. I don't think anyone should pay for it. We should stop funding the monster. I do not see these threats that the U.S. continues to talk about. I don't believe any of if FWIW. The threats.... come from the U.S. itself. It's the same play book over and over again.
ib, not to get political but what happens if the US decides not to pay for the defense of other countries and asks them to pay their own way. Japan, South Korea, Europe to name a few.
This is what trump wants to do.
Paris ib 13:33:18 GMT - 08/10/2016
SFH that is the interesting question. If they can find someone else to provide the cash they will, by hook or by crook. It's been ongoing since WWII so you never know. Never say never. If money inflows start up again then all bets are off. In the sense that the USD will be saved. So I guess the main thing is to keep an open mind as we move forward. :-)
LONDON SFH 13:30:56 GMT - 08/10/2016
ib I fully agree with you....but they seem to always find a victim willing to replace the last. China is happy to buy what the Japanese don't want any more so who will be next.
Paris ib 13:28:42 GMT - 08/10/2016
SFH - maybe but that fact is irrelevant. Japan is not a corporate. And the same can be said for the States. Does it not strike you as slightly nuts that this bankrupt nation, Japan, is financing the United States and has done for decades? One way of the other the U.S. has been bleeding nations around the world dry to finance military adventurism and a standard of living it can no longer support. IMVHO that era is coming to an end, which should be good for everyone (except maybe for the imperial ambitions of the deviants in the military industrial complex).
SFH - I don't think this has anything to do with Japanese growth or statistics either. I believe it represents a fundamental shift in long term international capital flows and an economic rebalancing. But I do think the U.S. has been resisting this shift and is wary of the consequences.
LONDON SFH 13:23:43 GMT - 08/10/2016
Just being pedantic reallY... But Japan is a total mess and the Yen strength is just not based on anything fundamental,,,,if they were a corporate they would be bankrupt
Paris ib 13:21:36 GMT - 08/10/2016
Wtr - FWIW I think we will struggle to get through 100 to start with, I think it will be defended. Ultimately yes a target of 80.
LONDON SFH 13:19:28 GMT - 08/10/2016
Hi again IB-
If the $ is to weaken on fundamental basis, then I can't see Japanese growth/inflation/debt-to-gdp ratio figures being the reasons....I think the Fed would be happy to let the $ weaken as they often have in the past and would use it to help keep growth alive...I don't see this as a pause but just a normal exchange rate fluctutation
Perth Wtr 13:18:02 GMT - 08/10/2016
Agree ib. Usd is toppish in that 5y range. Fall back to 80 next ?
Paris ib 13:15:56 GMT - 08/10/2016
SFH yeah I know. But I'm only really interested in the USD against the majors, specifically against the JPY the EUR. I'm not saying this is a one way street but I see this as PART II after the USD recovery we saw after the 2008 financial market crisis. We have had a pause but, in my view, that is all we have had: a pause. And in this second round of USD weakness and the leading indicator is the USD/JPY. FWIW
LONDON SFH 13:10:50 GMT - 08/10/2016
...95.5 currently given the past 5y range of 73.67-100.33 ... I think the Fed would be very happy to see a weaker $ but it despite unelectable Presidential candidates it is the ROW that continues to screw up their economies so badly that $ is the only place to be
LONDON SFH 13:08:57 GMT - 08/10/2016
Paris ib 12:59 GMT 08/10/2016
Look at DXY....the $ is trading pretty strong considering the way you paint it
Paris ib 12:59:34 GMT - 08/10/2016
Heading into an election - where both the candidates embody just how sad the American reality has become - with no chance of a rate hike and no real likelihood of a sustained economic recovery.... the USD decline continues, despite all the attempts by the ABE Government to weaken the JPY and regardless of all the bad press around Europe (migrants, bank stress, terrorism, blah, blah, blah...). Those hoping for the New American Century will be waiting for some time. And those hoping for a resurgence of foreign capital inflows to the States, boosting the economy and the USD, will be waiting for a very, very long time.
Mtl JP 16:09:52 GMT - 04/29/2016
... Unfortunately for the U.S. I think they squandered their status as the sole remaining global power...
Unfortunately ? Isn't there a trade opportunity there somehow , somewhere - IF true could one not expect the allegedly dying power to increase spending on bullets and bombs ?
nw kw 16:08:09 GMT - 04/29/2016
xagaud weely past 200 mv.
nw kw 16:03:28 GMT - 04/29/2016
xagaud at biggest r im out but planning to see event but not yet. if not rba set up.
Paris ib 15:34:51 GMT - 04/29/2016
I think we need to think outside the box and see the really, really big picture. Say the Japanese are repatriating, for their own reasons or because of a some increased concern about the U.S.A., say China has the same worries, throw in Saudi Arabia just for the h.ll of it. What you have is a real possibility (I'm not saying it's going to happen but you have to consider that it is certainly possible) that the USD and U.S. Treasuries fall out of favour (say mostly for geopolitical reasons or perhaps just because the USD's status as an international reserve currency has been dented) what you would need to watch for is a rise in U.S. yields as foreigners exit the market... but essentially what is possible is a debt spiral. And that means big trouble. If you were a foreign investor with a massive exposure to U.S. Treasuries what would you be doing now and where are your risks? One big risk associated with the U.S. is that your assets get frozen on some flimsy beat-up justification. Just look what happened to Iran. They are never going to get their billions back.
Unfortunately for the U.S. I think they squandered their status as the sole remaining global power and this is the result. And this latent 'rogue status' which is now associated with the U.S. (in the sense that they can freeze assets or start bombing nations pretty much on a whim) means that you should at least consider that the global geopolitical map has changed and changed radically. A Clinton Presidency would make things worse IMVHO. Trump might be better. :-)
Miami JN 15:24:10 GMT - 04/29/2016
ugh in usdjpy. BOJ where are you????
Paris ib 14:47:18 GMT - 04/29/2016
Do we have panic yet? Soon?
Paris ib 13:33:15 GMT - 04/06/2016
The USD: not waving, drowning.
Paris ib 15:45:09 GMT - 04/05/2016
That break below 110 looks like it's coming up, MUCH earlier than I expected. Panic strikes?
Paris ib 13:05:01 GMT - 04/01/2016
The data doesn't change the general picture. No reason to expect a new USD bull trend but I'm not expecting a USD meltdown either. Ongoing, steady USD selling is about where it's at. EUR/USD at the high - more or less - for 2016. USD/JPY dithering here. We need a decisive break below 110 to really get going. But with the BoJ hovering that will be harder to achieve than it sounds. Still, the trend is your friend and the USD trend so far this year is down. gl gt
Paris ib 07:26:35 GMT - 03/17/2016
Paris ib 17:22 GMT March 10, 2016
USD sell off PART II: Reply
And now..... what? A break below 112.00 in JPY. More upside in GOLD. And a break above 1.1200 in EUR USD.
And then? More of the same.
---------
More of the same....
Hillegom Purk 17:59:55 GMT - 03/10/2016
Do not forget your rubber, since you did NOT put in a STOP DIL
Israel Dil 17:50:51 GMT - 03/10/2016
SellEURUSD Entry: 1.1215 Target: Stop:
have a great weekend.... I will be back next Wednesday
Paris ib 17:22:36 GMT - 03/10/2016
And now..... what? A break below 112.00 in JPY. More upside in GOLD. And a break above 1.1200 in EUR USD.
“The yen isn’t the only currency that has appreciated,” Mr. Kuroda said, and added that the phenomenon was due to the dollar’s broad weakness. “Most of the world’s major currencies have strengthened (versus the U.S. currency).”....
Good IB, make money, act accordingly, sell on blips. Today perect example!
Paris ib 16:30:24 GMT - 02/24/2016
The biggie is the USD.... we are not going to get a decent clear out on global financial markets until the USD starts to really see some selling pressure... USD/JPY still leading and that USD selling pressure is starting to build. Risk is all to the downside IMVHO.
"The offshoring of US manufacturing and professional service jobs to Asia stopped the growth of consumer demand in the US, decimated the middle class...
Without growth in consumer incomes to drive the economy, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan substituted the growth in consumer debt...
Using the smoke and mirrors of under-reported inflation and unemployment, the US government kept alive the appearance of economic recovery. Foreigners fooled by the deception continue to support the US dollar by holding US financial instruments....
By understating inflation, the US government has overstated GDP growth....
...if the jobs have been sent offshore, monetary and fiscal policy cannot work....."
"According to the latest Fed data, after a drop of $12 billion in the first week of the year, another $34.5 billion in Treasuries held in custody was sold in the week ended January 13... the... most custody holdings "outflowing" start to the year in history."
"The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $114.0 billion.... After including adjustments... overall net foreign SALES of long-term securities are estimated to have been $43.4 billion in December."
IB, ok so your guess is that the down trend will start now. Good, that is better than in the middle or at the end!For months i have kiwi longs and ozmond longs. I add, i scale i take, i see it come and go. I also short at certain highs, but always keep some for ozmond 100, and Kiwi 90.
Cheers IB!
Israel Dil 16:47:04 GMT - 02/16/2016
PURK
don't you dare to underestimate IB because she is beautiful and hot gorgeous, she is really good to identify trends and money making chances... she is not a day trader in definition, her real calls worth the 10KT+ stones, not the leftover.
Paris ib 16:46:02 GMT - 02/16/2016
And a failure to break 1900 opens the way for more selling in S and P.
Triggers anyone? I don't have any right now.
Paris ib 16:44:40 GMT - 02/16/2016
Hi Purk Agnostic on the AUD at the moment. Don't trade the NZD. Square in USD/JPY but a failure to break and hold above 114.00 opens the way for more downside. Right now we are spinning the wheels here. The Euro is frustrating, going nowhere and I don't expect it to make a huge move either way. USD/JPY still the one to watch. I am really concerned about the geopolitics of stuff at the moment. I don't think the market is paying attention but I don't really know what it means... except maybe buy GOLD on dips.
What you got on the AUD?
Israel Dil 16:40:57 GMT - 02/16/2016
Hi ib -how your book trades about USD/JPY , 110-120 or 105-115 ?
Israel Dil 16:40:12 GMT - 02/16/2016
Hi ib -hiw your book trades about USD/JPY , 110-120 or 105-115 ?
Hillegom Purk 16:37:04 GMT - 02/16/2016
Euh Ib, i see ozmond down, see kiwi down, see e/u down, where do you see usd selling?
Hillegom Purk 16:37:04 GMT - 02/16/2016
Euh Ib, i see ozmond down, see kiwi down, see e/u down, where do you see usd selling?
Paris ib 16:14:22 GMT - 02/16/2016
Pre holiday short covering then a U.S. holiday and now it's straight back to selling the USD.
Why weak economic data out of the U.S. surprises anyone is beyond me. Oh yeah, that narrative again. Forgot.
Paris ib 08:34:08 GMT - 02/12/2016
Looks like we are having a 'pause' day today.
Paris ib 08:33:16 GMT - 02/12/2016
Don't know how I missed this but I did:
"According to the latest Fed data, after a drop of $12 billion in the first week of the year, another $34.5 billion in Treasuries held in custody was sold in the week ended January 13... the... most custody holdings "outflowing" start to the year in history."
The pundits are fixated on China but it could just as easily be Japan liquidating Treasury holdings.
Gold is not backed by consumer spending this time, much less if there is any industrial(shrinking) demand.
People have no money for luxuries, and crushing stox will only cause deflation and money shortage.
If some big players pull prices up, it is a good speculative reason to join, but when correction will start, it will be very big and fast.
Paris ib 11:10:46 GMT - 02/11/2016
GOLD is part of the USD sell off. Up 2.5 percent today.
Who bought GOLD recently? Russia and China.
kl fs 09:13:19 GMT - 02/11/2016
Mr. Sakakibara got it right though re. usdjpy
Paris ib 09:04:48 GMT - 02/11/2016
Kyle Bass: one trick pony.
Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass... says that "this has been one of the worst years in the last ten."
That would have been 2015. And he has been a mega bull on USD JPY for a very long time. It would have worked for a while, the move from 80 to 125 can not be ignored. But Bass thinks he is smarter than he actually is. All the people who got the Sub Prime melt down were not THAT smart. They were simply not insane.
kl shawn 08:57:08 GMT - 02/11/2016
yeah someone f.up usdjpy, only 1 week ago we heard rosy 130 thing
'Paris' 'ib' 08:55:12 GMT - 02/11/2016
Yeah nut cases everywhere so you gotta think for yourself.
AUD under pressure here. JPY still the focus. Every time I think we have a pause the bottom falls out of this one.
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 08:51:46 GMT - 02/11/2016
There are a lot of conspiracies out there but also a lot of nutcases who find everything a conspiracy. I also believe that someone f.u. and something went terribly wrong... everywhere..
For now, trust you see that corrections are on their way. That said, 106 also possible for a 400 pip back 11026...
Paris ib 08:48:00 GMT - 02/11/2016
Purk I was totally mainstream until a few years after 9 11 when I happened on a link on Bull not Bull (now no longer updated). When I came to understand that maybe 9 11 was NOT what 'they' said it was... Then you start to wonder about a lot of things. IMVHO the guys behind 9 11 totally stuffed up. They took a huge risk, and despite the control of the mainstream media, there are too many people who question what is going on. In short 9 11 was a mistake by the powers-that-be. Seriously I wouldn't be surprised if it were confirmed that the Yanks never did get to the moon after all. 10 years ago I used to laugh at the conspiracy nuts. Trouble is the conspiracies now have more predictive power than the mainstream media. So if you go with the scientific method (keep a theory as long as it has predictive power) you have to be a conspiracy theorist. Who'd have thought it? :-)
IB, It is hard for our fake governments to tell people that they are wrong. Guess they are afraid for civil unrest when they tell us what is really cookin'. Only thing is, more and more people are aware now and do not believe governments anymore. The rest is at work and do not give a damn except when they become unemployed...
We are not ruled by our governments, know that for 20-30 years, first i thought i was an idiot (well still am) but more and more signs are coming to the surface.
Paris ib 08:32:07 GMT - 02/11/2016
Thanks Purk. What really occupies my mind is the real world consequences of this massive change in the global economic order and how to deal with it.
First risk: the nut cases decide to bomb everyone in a fit of pique.
Second risk: massive - through probably brief - economic slow down. (Though I would suggest that the USD block will have a longer lasting economic downturn.)
Stock up on Tuna Fish? No I don't think so. :-)
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 08:27:19 GMT - 02/11/2016
Good show IB. You called it, and trust you will get lots of Doekoe!
bali sja 08:24:14 GMT - 02/11/2016
the so called legend will come out and say buy usdjpy for the-nth time soon....zzzz
Paris ib 08:22:36 GMT - 02/11/2016
Next round of USD weakness coming up. EUR USD joining in but the bigger mover remains the USD JPY. Break of 112 opens the way for a near term test of 110 with a longer term target of 100, though I see no reason why we can't see 80 again - eventually.
Only caveat: the nut cases at the Central Banks of the world.
Paris ib 20:36:21 GMT - 02/10/2016
Think so red.
london red 20:34:20 GMT - 02/10/2016
tested. if we are not done here it will be bloody tomorrow.
Paris ib 20:28:50 GMT - 02/10/2016
The USD is in trouble. Big time. Period.
Israel Dil 16:12:40 GMT - 02/05/2016
ib
no European leader will take the risk to let terror to spread through his nation. the smarter in Europe know why Muammar and Saddam ended as they ended and the state of Iraq and Lybia doesn't make any leader to withdraw from the role of US puppets.
in 1912 USA was in feferal surplus, in 1913 the FED established and suddenly the USA started to be part of conflicts very far from its territory.
so, get rid of ALL European "royalty", turn back the Federal Reserve into US (national) arm, revoke power from multinationals, that's the only way to protect humanity.
Paris ib 15:59:30 GMT - 02/05/2016
Friday afternoon belongs to U.S. traders... however in the big bad world the tectonic shift continues.
"the question is how long Western Europe will be willing to forego its trade and investment interests by accepting U.S.-sponsored sanctions against Russia, Iran and other economies. Germany, Italy and France already are feeling the strains."
Mr Lapthorne "Earnings have never been cut this dramatically outside a recession. The worst earnings momentum on the planet is not in Asia, it's not emerging markets, it's not in Europe. It's in the US." FT 16/17 January 2016
Amazing every central banker in the world has been trying to get a weaker currency and who knew that if you hiked 1/4 point you could have it all!!
Paris ib 18:57:42 GMT - 02/03/2016
But make no mistake this is a USD sell off. And there are no limits.
Paris ib 18:56:44 GMT - 02/03/2016
Jay - yes it is. And the positions out there are huge.
Big things afoot.
Wait for the next Lehman announcement.
Paris ib 18:55:04 GMT - 02/03/2016
For which market?
For geo politics?
Good news: less wars.
However the deviants are just that and might just pull out the stops and really go for some last attempt to blow up the world in toto.
First things first: unless you spend USDs you do NOT want to hold USD denominated bonds. The U.S. Government funding programme is in big trouble. Commodities may have bottomed at least in USD terms. I like the Rouble quite frankly.
'Livingston' 'nh' 18:52:56 GMT - 02/03/2016
ib - perhaps you could explain the implications for a USD in trouble?
Paris ib 18:52:56 GMT - 02/03/2016
Exit the USD asap.
That little window of opportunity before panic emerges is closing fast.
And stop up your ears to 'the narrative'.
NY Jay 18:52:45 GMT - 02/03/2016
IB, this is a liquidating market.
Paris ib 18:47:56 GMT - 02/03/2016
Today -so far - the USD has lost:
1.85 percent against the Euro
2.26 percent against the JPY
1.90 percent against the AUD
This currency is in trouble.
This is NOT short covering in AUD, JPY, Euro etc., this is selling.
Deal with the reality. NOT the narrative.
Paris ib 15:28:57 GMT - 02/03/2016
Looks like the market is just going to go for it at this point. No bounce. NFP can't really save this baby. FED credibility is shot anyhow. USD/JPY as usual remains the canary in the coal mine and stocks are toast.
Paris ib 10:48:51 GMT - 02/02/2016
Missed chances are part of the deal.
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 10:47:56 GMT - 02/02/2016
Missed chance, because February 2016 will decide the direction for a few months...
Paris ib 10:45:18 GMT - 02/02/2016
Given the current volatility I don't see a lot of value in getting heavily involved in the market. I'm waiting and watching. Often NOT trading is the absolute best strategy. Especially when the market is being gamed. But that's just my opinion.
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 10:37:40 GMT - 02/02/2016
So IB, than you must be full of shorts in usd/jpy and long in e/u etc etc?
Trust you will be filthy rich and sad that i was not the one listened to you.
Paris ib 10:29:12 GMT - 02/02/2016
It's a slow burn but the USD is starting to look under pressure. The BoJ rode to the rescue last week. But that's not a game you can play forever. Funny old world. There is all this official manipulation and game playing going on but the fundamentals will out. The USD is in trouble. It is unclear just how much trouble the rest of the world's paper money is in. Meanwhile over in Australia they have some policy responses ready. Namely: raise taxes. You can't make this stuff up. A bit of a shell game, with a bit of a temporary offset offered as a reward, but essentially more TAX to the Federal Government.... and a phasing out of State Governments is on the cards. Local representation? So last century.
"in November... a monthly net TIC outflow of $3.2 billion....
After including adjustments, such as estimates of unrecorded principal payments to foreigners on U.S. asset-backed securities, overall net foreign purchases of long-term securities are estimated to have been $18.2 billion"...
The capital inflows have been absent now for quite some time.
don't you trust the FED banksters to outsource the USD printing and ship it back to USA and even name that foreign/external funding?
Paris ib 20:18:52 GMT - 01/19/2016
How would I know? Without external funding the U.S. economy is in trouble. That's what we have now.
Israel Dil 20:15:01 GMT - 01/19/2016
ib
do you mean that pension funds will go belly up soon and social unrest will spread widely (industrial) worldwide in Russian (Ukranian) borsht style?
Paris ib 20:00:27 GMT - 01/19/2016
Don't matter.
Sooner or later it will become clear WHERE the problem is. And it's not China.
Israel Dil 19:54:09 GMT - 01/19/2016
ib
try not to underestimate today's happy hour effect about the stox ;-)
here it goes, or not
Paris ib 19:45:36 GMT - 01/19/2016
The U.S. is back from holiday and we are back to selling stocks and the USD. More to come.
Paris ib 15:11:56 GMT - 01/15/2016
nh - Let's see how 2016 ends up. My take (as you know) is that a major structural readjustment has been DELAYED by ill-considered and essentially foolhardy actions of 'the authorities'. In some cases in fact (consider TARP) those actions were possibly close to criminal. At any rate because of this wall of (printed) money the readjustment has been DELAYED. But we are getting there. IMVHO that is. End year 2016 we will see. But I think we are there now.
EVERY time the market shakes a bit the guys with the "REPENT, the END is Nigh" placards are marching around
Good News doesn't sell papers (digital or not)
Paris ib 15:04:37 GMT - 01/15/2016
Since Lehman and the initial USD sell off the 'authorities' (and I use the term loosely) have worked overtime to export the crisis to other areas around the world and to shore up the USD's status as an international reserve currency. They have done a pretty good job it must be said. But you can't fight major turning points forever. This is round two. And this time the aforementioned 'authorities' have spent their bullets and have lost their credibility. In this round we will have real world economic consequences and it will be unpleasant.
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