Those helpful map/diagrams in Museums, hotels or street corners that assist you in finding a path to your destination always have an AVATAR or Arrow showing "present location" - the Fed doesn't have one of these, the markets don't either and we mere mortals are reduced to guessing the respective destination/targets/goals of both Fed and market as they stumble along paths that cross and diverge - the street signs of government statistics, economic theory and market messages are flawed and subject to interpretation by the reader BUT that's all we've got
So where are we now and where are we headed - late in the business cycle the Fed is raising interest rates and other countries are not so the USD is stronger, EM countries are caught with slower growth and rising inflation (STAGFLATION) so their monetary policy is "conflicted" so the USD is stronger
What has changed in the past few months or days? What might change? The Fed, BoE, ECB, BoJ, PBOC or fiscal policies - except for the Fed nothing's changed /// Markets are in turmoil and chaos reigns as one day China, one day oil, one day some government statistic excites the peanut gallery
I propose that the US is at least 3 quarters away from recession, the Fed will continue to hike and inflation will become a concern -- the USD will rise as other countries adjust policy in a confusing, inconsistent pattern
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Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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