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GVI Forex Blog  11:50:12 GMT - 01/19/2016  

Earlier German ZEW Survey. January data beat expectations.

BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey Beats Expectations

GVI Forex john bland  12:09:46 GMT - 01/19/2016  
BOE's Carney
-- Now not the time for a rate rise
-- Downside Risks to economy remain
-- Rate increases will be gradual, limited when they start

GVI Forex john bland  12:11:15 GMT - 01/19/2016  
Carney comments hitting GBP.

Mtl JP  12:14:53 GMT - 01/19/2016  
rokstar confirming a ccy war however subtly

london red  12:43:12 GMT - 01/19/2016  
cable. prev low 14226, a daily close below there opens up 140xx a zone many mt positions targeting. on a daily close below 14226 we should see a close back abv 14370/80 if still to see 140xx.

london red  12:49:20 GMT - 01/19/2016  
*should not see

GVI Forex john bland  15:00:55 GMT - 01/19/2016  
U.S. NAHB Index January 2016
U.S. Data Charts

60 vs. 61 exp. vs. 61 (r 60) prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  15:02:13 GMT - 01/19/2016  
another housing number miss...

Mtl JP  15:04:57 GMT - 01/19/2016  
Canadians who boght a house in arizona few yrs bak trying to dump it now

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:57:32 GMT - 01/19/2016  
TERROR ALERT -- may be why stocks dipped

9 NJ HS receiv bomb/mass shooting...

london red  16:27:35 GMT - 01/19/2016  
nice looking wick on daily s&p candle. if can hold these levels into close (or lower) sets up for a solid 50 pt downside test by end of week. whether they hold down there is another matter.
despite risk on greens this morning mkts feel quite risk off, even yen couldnt draw a bull trap over 118 let alone establish itself up there.

PAR 17:09:08 GMT - 01/19/2016  
Imho US economy - which invested $ billions in oil production - is hit like the oil exporting countries by the falling oil prices . Oil importing countries like China, Japan and most European countries on the other hand are benefitting from lower oil prices . A lower oil price will be $ negative and if the $ drops enough oil prices will go higher again .

PAR 17:12:37 GMT - 01/19/2016  
Trying to hit Russia by lowering the oil price is coming back like a boomerang .

GVI Forex john bland  21:52:17 GMT - 01/19/2016  
New Zealand 4Q16 CPI
-- ALERT --

QQ: -0.50% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
YY: +0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  09:32:07 GMT - 01/20/2016  
U.K. Employment November/December 2015


Claimant Count: -4.300 vs. +3.000 exp. vs. +3.900 (-2.200)prev.
ILO Rate: 5.10% vs. 5.20% exp. vs. 5.20% prev.
earnings x-bonus: +1.9% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. 2.00% prev.
earnings: +2.00% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  09:33:04 GMT - 01/20/2016  
UK data generally better than expected

london red  09:37:22 GMT - 01/20/2016  
eurgbp. big prev low at 7764, a break there took us all the way dwn to 69 cents. so a big level to clear topside. also 7740 is 50% of 57/97 cents. both of these levels vital on a monthly closing basis as is 144 month ema at 7767.
market is in midst of an inverse shs but id expect circa 75 cents test before monthly closes abv those mentioned levels.
cable. final tgt 14060/80 while below 14370/80

GVI Forex john bland  13:31:07 GMT - 01/20/2016  
U.S. Consumer Price Index December 2015
U.S. Data Charts

m/m: -0.10% vs. 0.00% exp. v +0.00% pre
y/y: +0.70% vs. +0.80% exp. v +0.50% pre
y/y: +2.10% vs. +2.10% exp. v +2.00% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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GVI Forex john bland  13:31:42 GMT - 01/20/2016  
CPI miss

GVI Forex john bland  13:33:16 GMT - 01/20/2016  
U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) December 2015
U.S. Data Charts

Starts: 1.150 vs. 1.195 exp. vs. 1.173 ( r 1.179)prev.
Permits: 1.232 vs. 1.200 exp. vs. 1.290 prev.

New Residential Construction

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GVI Forex john bland  13:33:58 GMT - 01/20/2016  
Housing Starts/Permits miss.

GVI Forex 14:27:24 GMT - 01/20/2016  
Venezuela reportedly requests extraordinary Opec meeting

GVI Forex john bland  15:01:01 GMT - 01/20/2016  
January 2016 Bank of Canada Policy Decision


O/N Target: Holds rates at 0.50%

RELEASE: Bank of Canada

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GVI Forex john bland  15:01:36 GMT - 01/20/2016  
Mild Surprise from BOC

GVI Forex john bland  15:06:44 GMT - 01/20/2016  
"The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as expected. Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range as the disinflationary effects of economic slack and low consumer energy prices are only partially offset by the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar on the prices of imported goods. As all of these factors dissipate, the Bank expects inflation will rise to about 2 per cent by early 2017. Measures of core inflation should remain close to 2 per cent.


All things considered, therefore, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, as expected. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent."

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent

london red  15:07:49 GMT - 01/20/2016  
no surprises here. mkt talked itself into a cut. still outlook for cad not rosy. if they can run under 144 nice area to pick up longs 14380/50. important to let bears have their day.

GVI Forex john bland  15:10:49 GMT - 01/20/2016  
For those interested

BOC Webcast @ 16:15 GMT

london red  15:17:45 GMT - 01/20/2016  
cable prev lt low 14226/30. should offer res. if not will be first time an initial res beaten and may be stops. all the same worth a short as while under 14370/80 still chance to do 14060/80 and id say wait for a bounce.

GVI Forex john bland  12:45:25 GMT - 01/21/2016  
European Central Bank (ECB) January 2016


Refi Rate Steady at 0.05%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.30%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.20%

Asset Purchases (QE) per mo unchanged at 60bn

Press Release: ECB Decision

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GVI Forex john bland  12:46:59 GMT - 01/21/2016  
No policy changes by ECB as expected. No surprise. Press conference @13:30 GMT.

Israel Dil  12:49:02 GMT - 01/21/2016  
what's your take for eur/usd close rate today, sub 108 or above 110 ?

Mtl JP  12:56:18 GMT - 01/21/2016  
Dil soon after Draghi stops flapping his gums eurdlr will be subject to stox

euro is not going massively down unless stox stop puking

london red  13:01:47 GMT - 01/21/2016  
cable. bounced a whisker away from 14060/80 tgt and last remaining 10% is closed. Looking for a rebound to sell into over the coming months. if does manage to squeeze out more downside, some barriers at 1.40 likely to be defended.
for eurgbp. looking for another failure at 7750/70 to insite some profit taking towards 75 cents.
euro. should struggle abv 110, likely sellers 11020/45/70.
watch phily data today, tends to predict ism quite well. could be a miss here.

london red  13:09:27 GMT - 01/21/2016  
euro straddle 85/90 pips, eurgbp 50/55 pips initial sup/res
1 week euro (inc friday and nfp, fomc) 140 pips

GVI Forex john bland  13:30:23 GMT - 01/21/2016  
U.S. Philly Fed Index January 2016
U.S. Data Charts


-3.5 vs. -3.2 exp. vs. -5.9 prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  13:31:47 GMT - 01/21/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
293K vs. 280K exp. vs. 284K prev. (r 283K)

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GVI Forex john bland  13:40:21 GMT - 01/21/2016  
Draghi indicates ECB will be reconsidering policy at its next meeting. To me that suggests additional policy ease. EURUSD tumbles as this is a surprise to the markets.

GVI Forex john bland  14:00:16 GMT - 01/21/2016  
-- Monitoring markets
-- No signs of financial instability

GVI Forex john bland  14:11:36 GMT - 01/21/2016  
-- exchange rate not a policy target
-- clear policy decisions impact the exchange rate

GVI Forex john bland  14:12:53 GMT - 01/21/2016  
Saudi Aramco Chairman: Saudi Arabia can withstand low oil prices for a long time - comments in Davos

-- TTN

Mtl JP  14:16:14 GMT - 01/21/2016  
sooooo lets LOWER it
the faster and deeper the better

Mtl JP  14:17:33 GMT - 01/21/2016  
brent still aound 27.7
way way wayyyyy too high

Israel Dil  14:18:03 GMT - 01/21/2016  
today buy stox jp, it's a good trade now

Mtl JP  14:19:47 GMT - 01/21/2016  
s/t eur in a short bias while under 1.0845-ish

Mtl JP  14:21:06 GMT - 01/21/2016  
would be nice to see gbp go to 1.4050ish and lower

GVI Forex john bland  15:32:10 GMT - 01/21/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

-178 vs. =185 exp vs. -168 prev.

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Israel Dil  15:44:35 GMT - 01/21/2016  
markets as whole looking to correct. that's the bottom line. that means the WTI/BRENT will trade $40 within few weeks. after that, we will see ;-)


GVI Forex john bland  16:01:24 GMT - 01/21/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: +3.900 vs. +3.000 exp vs. -5.000 prev.
Gasoline: +4.560 vs. 0.875 exp vs. +10.800 prev.
Distillates: -1.03 vs. -0.400 exp vs. +6.300 prev.
Cap/Util: 90.6% vs. 92.5% prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status


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london red  16:13:37 GMT - 01/21/2016  
if they can get to 1900 then yen should see 11796 fib and maybe a little higher than 118.
CB we on here fkd the prom queen yesterday, before it went up.

nw kw  17:02:33 GMT - 01/21/2016  
Distillates: -1.03 vs go oil

GVI Forex john bland  21:03:24 GMT - 01/21/2016  
Report- BOJ considering additional easing measures --TTN

GVI Forex john bland  21:07:01 GMT - 01/21/2016  
Typically this is how the BOJ pre-announces an easing. The next BOJ meeting is on Friday a week from now. Its beginning to look like coordinated action. Odd man out is the Fed. They announce next Wednesday.

dc CB  21:13:35 GMT - 01/21/2016  
zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 7m7 minutes ago

Hey Nikkei: the headline goes out 2 minutes before the close, not after

GVI Forex john bland  08:27:59 GMT - 01/22/2016  
Japan flash PMI January 2016

52.4 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 52.6 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Forex john bland  09:00:53 GMT - 01/22/2016  
EZ Flash PMIs January 2016
Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

mfg: 52.3 vs. 53.0 exp. vs. 53.2 prev.
svc: 53.6 vs. 54.2 exp. vs. 54.2 prev.

mfg: 52.1 vs. 52.7 exp. vs. 53.2
svc: 55.4 vs. 55.5 exp. vs. 56.0

mfg: 50.0 vs. 51.3 exp. vs. 51.4
svc: 50.6 vs. 50.2 exp. vs. 49.8

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Forex john bland  09:01:24 GMT - 01/22/2016  
EZ PMI data miss.

GVI Forex john bland  09:32:54 GMT - 01/22/2016  
U.K. Retail Sales December 2015
U.K. Charts


mm: -1.10% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. +1.70% (r +1.30%) prev.
mm: -0.90% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. +1.70% (r +1.30%) prev.

RELEASE: UK Retail Sales

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GVI Forex john bland  09:33:51 GMT - 01/22/2016  
U.K. December Retail Sales data miss.

london red  09:38:39 GMT - 01/22/2016  
sales miss well flaged after poor stores and footfall figures. but more important cable bottomed and shorts burning. might seen test of broken lt fib 14370/80 where can try short. currently testing 200hma.

london red  09:44:25 GMT - 01/22/2016  
eurgbp. sold off well from key res 7750/70 now a whisker away from 19th jan low of 7583. a break there makes a lower low and should see 7500 neck of inverse shs tested. can be bought there but keep in mind while test of shs neck is often a good signal, the monthly chart will be showing a very long wick on candle, so it depends when the test takes place.

GVI Forex john bland  11:05:20 GMT - 01/22/2016  
ECB's Nowotny
-- Council unanimous decision to discuss QE in March
-- Haven't decided which stimulus tools to use
-- Will look at inflationary situation in March

GVI Forex john bland  13:23:00 GMT - 01/22/2016  
BOE's Carney
-- Economy tracking quite well
-- Timing of rate rise depends on economic conditions
-- Heightened awareness of EU Referendum, but no sign confidence hit

GVI Forex john bland  13:31:26 GMT - 01/22/2016  
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices December 2015
Canada Data Charts

Bank of Canada Core
yy: +1.90% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.
mm: -0.50% vs. -0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: +1.60% vs. +1.70% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  13:32:10 GMT - 01/22/2016  
Canada: Retail Sales November 2015
Canada Charts

Headline: +1.70% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
X-Autos: +1.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.

RELEASE: Canadian Retail Sales

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GVI Forex john bland  13:33:07 GMT - 01/22/2016  
Canada CPI soft, but Retail Sales (November) beat

GVI Forex john bland  13:55:33 GMT - 01/22/2016  
BOJ Kuroda
-- deflationary pressures a real risk
-- global economy not on brink of sharp deflation -- forecast 2% inflation in 2H FY2016

GVI Forex john bland  14:10:02 GMT - 01/22/2016  
-- will continue QE until 2% inflation target met
-- Japan growing at 1.0%-1.5%

GVI Forex john bland  14:45:10 GMT - 01/22/2016  
U.S. Markit flash Mfg PMI January 2015
U.S. Data Charts

52.7 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.2 prev

Markit PMI Press Release

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GVI Forex john bland  14:45:52 GMT - 01/22/2016  
Markit mfg PMI beats. I don't trust this.

GVI Forex john bland  15:00:30 GMT - 01/22/2016  
U.S. Leading Indicators December 2015
U.S. Data Charts

-0.20% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  15:01:08 GMT - 01/22/2016  
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) December 2015
U.S. Data Charts

5.460 vs. 5.200 exp. vs. 4.760 prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  15:01:49 GMT - 01/22/2016  
Existing Homes sales much better than expected. Apparently due to mortgage rule change that depressed November. This was a catch up

london red  15:32:59 GMT - 01/22/2016  
brent and wti both have channel lines at or just below 33 bucks. i doubt they close abv them today. due to the large % gain and volatility that goes with it, they may run the stops sitting abv the channels. but a close abv should be a bridge too far for both. maybe loonie sees a quick spike to do stops a few pips under 140 then back up to close 14140/50ish.

nw kw  15:55:53 GMT - 01/22/2016  
oil cot has power in well added longs big shorts on run good for 34.

nw kw  15:57:06 GMT - 01/22/2016  
cad has big longs to or fish did.

Mtl JP  16:59:09 GMT - 01/22/2016  
S&P upgrades Greece's sovereign credit rating to 'B-' from 'CCC+' MarketWatch

GVI Forex john bland  19:08:39 GMT - 01/22/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 637 vs 650 (-14) prev
US (oil): 510 vs. 515 (-5) prev

Canada 250 vs. 227 (+23) prev

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