nice looking wick on daily s&p candle. if can hold these levels into close (or lower) sets up for a solid 50 pt downside test by end of week. whether they hold down there is another matter.
despite risk on greens this morning mkts feel quite risk off, even yen couldnt draw a bull trap over 118 let alone establish itself up there.
PAR17:09:08 GMT - 01/19/2016
Imho US economy - which invested $ billions in oil production - is hit like the oil exporting countries by the falling oil prices . Oil importing countries like China, Japan and most European countries on the other hand are benefitting from lower oil prices . A lower oil price will be $ negative and if the $ drops enough oil prices will go higher again .
PAR17:12:37 GMT - 01/19/2016
Trying to hit Russia by lowering the oil price is coming back like a boomerang .
GVI Forex john bland 21:52:17 GMT - 01/19/2016
New Zealand 4Q16 CPI
-- ALERT --
QQ: -0.50% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
YY: +0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
-- NEWS ALERT --
Claimant Count: -4.300 vs. +3.000 exp. vs. +3.900 (-2.200)prev.
ILO Rate: 5.10% vs. 5.20% exp. vs. 5.20% prev.
earnings x-bonus: +1.9% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. 2.00% prev.
earnings: +2.00% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.40% prev.
eurgbp. big prev low at 7764, a break there took us all the way dwn to 69 cents. so a big level to clear topside. also 7740 is 50% of 57/97 cents. both of these levels vital on a monthly closing basis as is 144 month ema at 7767.
market is in midst of an inverse shs but id expect circa 75 cents test before monthly closes abv those mentioned levels.
cable. final tgt 14060/80 while below 14370/80
"The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as expected. Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range as the disinflationary effects of economic slack and low consumer energy prices are only partially offset by the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar on the prices of imported goods. As all of these factors dissipate, the Bank expects inflation will rise to about 2 per cent by early 2017. Measures of core inflation should remain close to 2 per cent.
All things considered, therefore, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, as expected. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent."
cable prev lt low 14226/30. should offer res. if not will be first time an initial res beaten and may be stops. all the same worth a short as while under 14370/80 still chance to do 14060/80 and id say wait for a bounce.
GVI Forex john bland 12:45:25 GMT - 01/21/2016
European Central Bank (ECB) January 2016
Refi Rate Steady at 0.05%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.30%
Deposit Rate steady At -0.20%
No policy changes by ECB as expected. No surprise. Press conference @13:30 GMT.
Israel Dil 12:49:02 GMT - 01/21/2016
what's your take for eur/usd close rate today, sub 108 or above 110 ?
Mtl JP 12:56:18 GMT - 01/21/2016
Dil soon after Draghi stops flapping his gums eurdlr will be subject to stox
euro is not going massively down unless stox stop puking
london red 13:01:47 GMT - 01/21/2016
cable. bounced a whisker away from 14060/80 tgt and last remaining 10% is closed. Looking for a rebound to sell into over the coming months. if does manage to squeeze out more downside, some barriers at 1.40 likely to be defended.
for eurgbp. looking for another failure at 7750/70 to insite some profit taking towards 75 cents.
euro. should struggle abv 110, likely sellers 11020/45/70.
watch phily data today, tends to predict ism quite well. could be a miss here.
london red 13:09:27 GMT - 01/21/2016
euro straddle 85/90 pips, eurgbp 50/55 pips initial sup/res
1 week euro (inc friday and nfp, fomc) 140 pips
if they can get to 1900 then yen should see 11796 fib and maybe a little higher than 118.
CB we on here fkd the prom queen yesterday, before it went up.
nw kw 17:02:33 GMT - 01/21/2016
Distillates: -1.03 vs go oil
GVI Forex john bland 21:03:24 GMT - 01/21/2016
Report- BOJ considering additional easing measures
GVI Forex john bland 21:07:01 GMT - 01/21/2016
Typically this is how the BOJ pre-announces an easing. The next BOJ meeting is on Friday a week from now. Its beginning to look like coordinated action. Odd man out is the Fed. They announce next Wednesday.
dc CB 21:13:35 GMT - 01/21/2016
zerohedge @zerohedge 7m7 minutes ago
Hey Nikkei: the headline goes out 2 minutes before the close, not after
GVI Forex john bland 08:27:59 GMT - 01/22/2016
Japan flash PMI January 2016
EARLIER NEWS ALERT
52.4 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 52.6 prev.
sales miss well flaged after poor stores and footfall figures. but more important cable bottomed and shorts burning. might seen test of broken lt fib 14370/80 where can try short. currently testing 200hma.
london red 09:44:25 GMT - 01/22/2016
eurgbp. sold off well from key res 7750/70 now a whisker away from 19th jan low of 7583. a break there makes a lower low and should see 7500 neck of inverse shs tested. can be bought there but keep in mind while test of shs neck is often a good signal, the monthly chart will be showing a very long wick on candle, so it depends when the test takes place.
GVI Forex john bland 11:05:20 GMT - 01/22/2016
-- Council unanimous decision to discuss QE in March
-- Haven't decided which stimulus tools to use
-- Will look at inflationary situation in March
GVI Forex john bland 13:23:00 GMT - 01/22/2016
-- Economy tracking quite well
-- Timing of rate rise depends on economic conditions
-- Heightened awareness of EU Referendum, but no sign confidence hit
GVI Forex john bland 13:31:26 GMT - 01/22/2016
Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices December 2015
Existing Homes sales much better than expected. Apparently due to mortgage rule change that depressed November. This was a catch up
london red 15:32:59 GMT - 01/22/2016
brent and wti both have channel lines at or just below 33 bucks. i doubt they close abv them today. due to the large % gain and volatility that goes with it, they may run the stops sitting abv the channels. but a close abv should be a bridge too far for both. maybe loonie sees a quick spike to do stops a few pips under 140 then back up to close 14140/50ish.
nw kw 15:55:53 GMT - 01/22/2016
oil cot has power in well added longs big shorts on run good for 34.
nw kw 15:57:06 GMT - 01/22/2016
cad has big longs to or fish did.
Mtl JP 16:59:09 GMT - 01/22/2016
S&P upgrades Greece's sovereign credit rating to 'B-' from 'CCC+' MarketWatch
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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