John - Oct statement may be the template - nothing expected then, nothing expected now
GVI Forex john bland 14:42:55 GMT - 01/27/2016
The crowded trade today is a dovish Fed. That does not mean it will not work, but you may have to be quick on your feet.
Livingston nh 14:24:18 GMT - 01/27/2016
Europe stox down modestly but showing some improvement into US open - so Fade the OPEN here // treasurys getting pushed around, maybe not expecting help from Fed or setting up for the auction
The oil effect may have run its course so the first reaction to stats may be wrong (not oil price but price of "correlated" stuff)
Mtl JP 14:15:23 GMT - 01/27/2016
BoD and long while above 20 day 118.31
Mtl JP 14:02:59 GMT - 01/27/2016
red what do you calculate a potential euro rally to be on a perception of "less hawkish than December" (ie a moderation in perception of FED-ECB divergence ?
GVI Forex john bland 14:02:29 GMT - 01/27/2016
Don't forget EIA Crude @ 15:30 GMT. Traders will be looking for the large API build reported last night to be confirmed. Large inventory build ==> lower prices. New Homes Sales @15:00 GMT.
london red 13:51:17 GMT - 01/27/2016
yes but billions in options from 108 down mean downside is well hedged and so nobody to sell down there. so can go either way. pressure will always be on euro however since ecb v likely to act next month and mkt will as always front run before the juice arrives. so euro will be for selling rallies until fomc swings from a rising bias to a neutral or cutting bias.
Mtl JP 13:46:44 GMT - 01/27/2016
last euro COT was pretty huge
could be vulnerable
GVI Forex john bland 13:45:50 GMT - 01/27/2016
Clearly EURUSD traders have already gotten set up for a dovish Fed statement.
You can make the case that higher Oil and equity prices reflect the same thing. ==>> higher growth on Fed ease
Of course this means the S&P to EURUSD correlation is illogical, but you have to go with what works!
london red 13:44:00 GMT - 01/27/2016
daily straddle 60 pips in euro, not a great deal historically. end of next week 140 pips but covers nfp.
london red 13:40:42 GMT - 01/27/2016
due to voting rotation the first fomc os this year gets a little more hawkish by default.
mkt is maybe looking for some dovish comfort from fomc, correct to expect this if looking back. however, mkt has 1 hike priced in this year while fed has 3-3. do they look through this month and wait til march before lower their expectations? thats the key here and what will drive dollar. mkt doesnt appear to believe it will rein in hikes as yet, given stops are being squeezed on topside of euro which suggests a pop higher for usd after fomc. for now a couple of fibs 13/14 holding the euro. watch hourly close to see if they can get a close abv it. if not then bull trap and a nice wick which they might run with as some bigger expiries today from 108-10850.
Mtl JP 13:33:56 GMT - 01/27/2016
thank you for the freedom!
now I feel lost
GVI Forex john bland 13:29:12 GMT - 01/27/2016
JP- You are hereby freed to do what you please. My comment was only a suggestion.
Mtl JP 13:24:15 GMT - 01/27/2016
john I am not thrilled to be in thrall to a minuscule group of "experts" and I entirely second your 11:29 suggestion
GVI Forex john bland 11:29:40 GMT - 01/27/2016
JP- That's the problem. I imagine the algos are likely to react immediately to the announcement of no policy change, but in any case the markets will be reacting to more than the headline in a matter of moments. If you are watching on TV, pay attention to what the people in the press say, because they will have had about 15 mins to read it in advance. But be careful because some, like Steve Liesman on CNBC, tend to have a pro-Fed, Pro-Obama bias. Act in haste and regret in leisure.
Mtl JP 11:19:48 GMT - 01/27/2016
depend on the nuances = time to become interpreting linguists of FED pettifoggers drivel , artists of lex --- how does the FED gang want the market to react in aggregate
GVI Forex john bland 11:03:55 GMT - 01/27/2016
Equities/Bonds EURUSD positive?
10-yr Mixed US testing 2.00% again
US 2.004% -0.8bp
DE 0.432% +2.9bp
UK 1.673% +0.8bp
WTI $30.38 -1.05 LOD $30.14
delayed reaction to large build in API crude late Tuesday lower crude stock negative and usually EURUSD positive. USDJPY and EURUSD are mixed.
I have mixed feelings about this afternoon. I don't think the Fed will indicate that the December rate hike was a mistake, nor do I think they will turn clearly dovish. I think they will reiterate that future policy decisions will be data dependent. Perhaps they will acknowledge the weakness in the manufacturing sector. I have been saying for a couple of months that it is in a recession.
In other words we could see a mixed statement suggesting that jobs growth remains strong. Many doubt this and there are some mixed economic indications. I think they will provide no forward guidance about the March meeting and leave that decision open.
This outcome usually results in some wide price swings after the announcement. I also expect this today. Stocks should like a dovish Fed bias and dislike a hawkish bias. Those outcomes would be EURUSD bearish and bullish, respectively. My prediction is that we are in an unusual situation where the markets will be deciding if the Fed is dovish or hawkish could depend on the nuances of the policy statement.
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.