User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?
FOREX Forum

Forex Forum     ← Back to Forums


Sort Order: Latest Post on Top - Latest Post Last            Post Reply

Livingston nh  14:53:09 GMT - 01/27/2016  
John - Oct statement may be the template - nothing expected then, nothing expected now


GVI Forex john bland  14:42:55 GMT - 01/27/2016  
The crowded trade today is a dovish Fed. That does not mean it will not work, but you may have to be quick on your feet.


Livingston nh  14:24:18 GMT - 01/27/2016  
Europe stox down modestly but showing some improvement into US open - so Fade the OPEN here // treasurys getting pushed around, maybe not expecting help from Fed or setting up for the auction

The oil effect may have run its course so the first reaction to stats may be wrong (not oil price but price of "correlated" stuff)


Mtl JP  14:15:23 GMT - 01/27/2016  
usdyen
BoD and long while above 20 day 118.31


Mtl JP  14:02:59 GMT - 01/27/2016  
red what do you calculate a potential euro rally to be on a perception of "less hawkish than December" (ie a moderation in perception of FED-ECB divergence ?


GVI Forex john bland  14:02:29 GMT - 01/27/2016  
Don't forget EIA Crude @ 15:30 GMT. Traders will be looking for the large API build reported last night to be confirmed. Large inventory build ==> lower prices. New Homes Sales @15:00 GMT.


london red  13:51:17 GMT - 01/27/2016  
yes but billions in options from 108 down mean downside is well hedged and so nobody to sell down there. so can go either way. pressure will always be on euro however since ecb v likely to act next month and mkt will as always front run before the juice arrives. so euro will be for selling rallies until fomc swings from a rising bias to a neutral or cutting bias.


Mtl JP  13:46:44 GMT - 01/27/2016  
last euro COT was pretty huge
could be vulnerable


GVI Forex john bland  13:45:50 GMT - 01/27/2016  
Clearly EURUSD traders have already gotten set up for a dovish Fed statement.

You can make the case that higher Oil and equity prices reflect the same thing. ==>> higher growth on Fed ease

Of course this means the S&P to EURUSD correlation is illogical, but you have to go with what works!


london red  13:44:00 GMT - 01/27/2016  
daily straddle 60 pips in euro, not a great deal historically. end of next week 140 pips but covers nfp.


london red  13:40:42 GMT - 01/27/2016  
due to voting rotation the first fomc os this year gets a little more hawkish by default.
mkt is maybe looking for some dovish comfort from fomc, correct to expect this if looking back. however, mkt has 1 hike priced in this year while fed has 3-3. do they look through this month and wait til march before lower their expectations? thats the key here and what will drive dollar. mkt doesnt appear to believe it will rein in hikes as yet, given stops are being squeezed on topside of euro which suggests a pop higher for usd after fomc. for now a couple of fibs 13/14 holding the euro. watch hourly close to see if they can get a close abv it. if not then bull trap and a nice wick which they might run with as some bigger expiries today from 108-10850.


Mtl JP  13:33:56 GMT - 01/27/2016  
thank you for the freedom!
now I feel lost


GVI Forex john bland  13:29:12 GMT - 01/27/2016  
JP- You are hereby freed to do what you please. My comment was only a suggestion.


Mtl JP  13:24:15 GMT - 01/27/2016  
john I am not thrilled to be in thrall to a minuscule group of "experts" and I entirely second your 11:29 suggestion


GVI Forex john bland  11:29:40 GMT - 01/27/2016  
JP- That's the problem. I imagine the algos are likely to react immediately to the announcement of no policy change, but in any case the markets will be reacting to more than the headline in a matter of moments. If you are watching on TV, pay attention to what the people in the press say, because they will have had about 15 mins to read it in advance. But be careful because some, like Steve Liesman on CNBC, tend to have a pro-Fed, Pro-Obama bias. Act in haste and regret in leisure.


Mtl JP  11:19:48 GMT - 01/27/2016  
depend on the nuances = time to become interpreting linguists of FED pettifoggers drivel , artists of lex --- how does the FED gang want the market to react in aggregate


GVI Forex john bland  11:03:55 GMT - 01/27/2016  
Equities/Bonds EURUSD positive?
DAX -49
DJ -73
SP -12

10-yr Mixed US testing 2.00% again
US 2.004% -0.8bp
DE 0.432% +2.9bp
UK 1.673% +0.8bp

WTI $30.38 -1.05 LOD $30.14
delayed reaction to large build in API crude late Tuesday lower crude stock negative and usually EURUSD positive. USDJPY and EURUSD are mixed.

As for Fed see our preview on the G-V Blog

I have mixed feelings about this afternoon. I don't think the Fed will indicate that the December rate hike was a mistake, nor do I think they will turn clearly dovish. I think they will reiterate that future policy decisions will be data dependent. Perhaps they will acknowledge the weakness in the manufacturing sector. I have been saying for a couple of months that it is in a recession.

In other words we could see a mixed statement suggesting that jobs growth remains strong. Many doubt this and there are some mixed economic indications. I think they will provide no forward guidance about the March meeting and leave that decision open.

This outcome usually results in some wide price swings after the announcement. I also expect this today. Stocks should like a dovish Fed bias and dislike a hawkish bias. Those outcomes would be EURUSD bearish and bullish, respectively. My prediction is that we are in an unusual situation where the markets will be deciding if the Fed is dovish or hawkish could depend on the nuances of the policy statement.






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube




pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
Managed Forex Accounts
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2019 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105