cable. softer today after lastest yougov poll showing 45% for brexit 36% against and 19% dont knows or wont votes. this was take after cameron self declared victory with the eu on benefits.
mkt seems to be convinced of june 23 referendum. if i was him i wouldnt want to be heading into a vote with polls like these.
on the day 14511/24 zone has held initially and while its looking weak i dont think its sees much below 145 ahead of nfp.
UK GP 09:37:06 GMT - 02/05/2016
Two polls in December indicated a closer race between the in and out camps, but there is an air of caution around published opinion polls in British politics after their failure to predict the 2015 general election result (The Guardian)
london red 10:41:54 GMT - 02/05/2016
euro daily straddle less than 80 pips which is less than avg for nfp. often is the case they expect a little less volatility after a hectic mid week. but it does mean euro needs to move abv 46/52 fibs for straddle to make money on call side alone. personally i think we will test one side then the other today. might be up, down, up. or down then up. to cover topside they need to create volatility. more than 2 yards 110s and 112s at the cut today. if we go lower first 112s may draw towards cut. certainly think plenty of sup at 50% fib 11109 and the 200dma around mid 110s. topside we have the broken weekly channel at 11379, another earlier at 11339 on the monthly.
perth wtr 10:45:12 GMT - 02/05/2016
red, seems to me you would see euro ends higher today by the close
london red 11:22:49 GMT - 02/05/2016
not necessarily finishing higher. wkly s&p in line for 1945/70 test and that will calm nerves and see usd recover a bit. as i said before they need volatility - large swings to build topside hedges so think we do both sides and where it finishes up will depend on stocks. i certainly think if we are anywhere near 112 around the cut they will take their cue for the evenings from stocks. i think you can buy dips in euro, i doubt it finishes at lows (we have to finish abv 200dma or its done and i dont think they are done yet), but as i say the close might depend on stocks.
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