the true consensus is nearer 170/180 so if we get that we might spike higher in euro but then come back down as jobs didnt fall off cliff, after which youd see a squeeze on weak euro longs as thats where the stops are. following that youd expect buying 11115-11050, any lower than this and it would be a full blown reversal - not sure people have the confidence for that yet, so youd expect it to move slowly higher once the downside stops taken. as to how high i think depends on stocks today.
if we get a 200/200+ numbers it will spike lower but youd expect dip buyers coming in, a test somewhere abv 112 and maybe drifting lower. a poor number sub 150k sub see 11339/75 today.
due to calendar effects ahe need to be up 0.5% or more to stop the y/y rate falling from 2.5%.
jkt abel 13:18:22 GMT - 02/05/2016
the number is going to be so badddd for NFP but stocks will take it as good (no rate hike)
GVI Forex john bland 13:18:19 GMT - 02/05/2016
for those watching the data, keep an eye on average hourly earnings, which are expected to bounce back higher for temporary techical reasons
'Mtl' 'JP' 13:09:31 GMT - 02/05/2016
is generally expected to be more than healthy
sooooo.. the trade is .......
and the bigger (better?) risk trade is.... IF it comes in sick
GVI Forex john bland 13:03:02 GMT - 02/05/2016
The January employment report will be released at 8:30 this morning, and is generally expected to be more than healthy, though not quite as strong as the December report. We look for payroll growth of around 200K, no change in the unemployment rate, and a somewhat misleading above-trend gain in average hourly earnings.
The annual seasonal factor revisions seem likely to smooth out the Q4 bulge in payroll growth to some extent, which might make the series appear to have less momentum.
GVI Forex john bland 10:11:02 GMT - 02/05/2016
US 1.855% +0.1bp
DE 0.298% -0.7
UK 1.538% -1.4
JA 0.027% -3.2
10-yr JGB yield just barely positive
wti $32.14 +0.41 ( $31.34 - 32.36)
EUR mixed on is crosses, Waiting for U.S. data
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Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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