maybe there are more of BOJ but i remember this two days / chart
'Livingston' 'nh' 17:02:20 GMT - 02/10/2016
seems to me that the yen move has hit every cross - this has nothing to do w/USD - it's specific to Japan
The EUR/USD is more telling but that has limits to the upside
From the USD position if the market is missing the Fed intent (one and done?) then there will be no place to hide when reality bites them (inflation is the key here becuz of the 10 yr which is not as influenced by the Fed)
london red 16:59:47 GMT - 02/10/2016
just rolling over again. maybe another look at 11393-98 and if no under then can move to 11440/50/60 maybe. but if under then hv further to go.
london red 16:57:01 GMT - 02/10/2016
114 is a pt for some folks from 119/120/123 trades. final pt is 110 on that particular bunch.
Paris ib 16:53:11 GMT - 02/10/2016
Personally I think we done a bit and take a rest here to reassess. Then we get some interesting asset allocation decisions.
The established narrative has been damaged. And I don't think there is a lot they can do about it. Moving to a less bullish USD persepective.
Paris ib 16:50:57 GMT - 02/10/2016
Late 90s... wasn't trading. I remember the stories around about Japan going bankrupt and so on at that time. Earlier that decade Japanese banks were having trouble with limits on interbank. I was in the market then and I remember no-one would trade with them following downgrading by ratings agencies. Sort of like the Euro crisis I guess. Would have been interesting before and after the Plaza accord...
london red 16:49:05 GMT - 02/10/2016
i must admit the last two yen trades ive bought dollar dips c 114 i dont expect intervention as they tend not to fight trends especially when they are unfolding and we are barely under 115, but folks high up tend these days to be less smart than you expect them to be, hence prefer to use options for downside at present.
'Belgrade' 'TD' 16:48:08 GMT - 02/10/2016
few years ago ... BOJ intervention ... if I remember correctly in a few hours huge drop than BOJ and hugeee up
london red 16:46:55 GMT - 02/10/2016
it may have been about 20 over the 2 days but fell a lot more than that during that move in the late 90's. carry trades got blown out of the water. you were sat there just watching a figure go, then another then another. so nothing surprises me in fx.
Paris ib 16:41:08 GMT - 02/10/2016
I don't think I ever saw 30 yen in two days. When did that happen?
Paris ib 16:40:11 GMT - 02/10/2016
USD/JPY always leads... but the tone has been set. Blasting through now...
london red 16:39:06 GMT - 02/10/2016
30 yen in 2 days is big. this is nothing.
london red 16:38:23 GMT - 02/10/2016
euro. looks like last attempt higher before some daily downside. fade rallies 113/11350. its just not making new highs on usdjpy lows. doesnt mean end of rally, can be a puse for a day.
Paris ib 16:38:13 GMT - 02/10/2016
Or do the committed USD bulls start to panic?
Paris ib 16:37:01 GMT - 02/10/2016
right red... looks like we test them. FWIW only the BoJ stepping in looks like it will stop this move, which is beginning to look like a fundamental change in perspective. The whole economic recovery and rate hike narrative is up for grabs at this point. And the marked in 2015 was all USD positive. My only concern is that the move has been so big so far... do we take a breather?
london red 16:35:00 GMT - 02/10/2016
multiple sup at 113.28-33 lvl should bounce there at least like off this 23.6.
london red 16:34:06 GMT - 02/10/2016
11393-98 is 23.6 of 80/125. likely to harbour stops.
'Paris' 'ib' 16:29:14 GMT - 02/10/2016
Stops under 114? You think?
Paris ib 16:20:33 GMT - 02/10/2016
Thinking the BoJ will try to hold 114 FWIW. Still bearish medium term but not willing to take a huge risk on a break here.
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:20:31 GMT - 02/10/2016
Good. Now i know you are a trader instead of a talker no doer...
london red 16:19:03 GMT - 02/10/2016
if broken nxt beefy at 113.28/32. below there air to 110xx
Paris ib 16:19:01 GMT - 02/10/2016
As the narrative of economic recovery and a steady path to tighter monetary policy breaks down the USD bullish case also breaks down. 114 under threat...
Paris ib 16:18:39 GMT - 02/10/2016
Yes.
london red 16:16:25 GMT - 02/10/2016
113.93/94 lt fib
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:16:20 GMT - 02/10/2016
Nope, just say yes or no.
'Paris' 'ib' 16:14:39 GMT - 02/10/2016
And you want me to share my positions?
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:13:43 GMT - 02/10/2016
Yep, rest is crap. This is a traders forum...
Paris ib 16:12:27 GMT - 02/10/2016
Really?
'Hillegom' 'Purk' 16:11:40 GMT - 02/10/2016
The big question is IB, ARE YOU SHORT USD/JPY?????
'Paris' 'ib' 16:08:59 GMT - 02/10/2016
USD/JPY the focus of the 'possibility' the FED might take a U turn on its not PRESET monetary policy course. Ease? Well we'll see...
Paris ib 16:06:59 GMT - 02/10/2016
The causes of the turmoil: China, Oil, China's exchange rate policy. ALL nothing to do with us. All external causes. Stick to the narrative.
Monetary policy not on a preset course. No? Recession this year? Well let's just waffle about this. Some risk of a recession... always is. And if we get one we will blame global financial developments.
I don't think it will be necessary to cut rates... BUT we would do what is needed. So NOT off the table at this point.
Paris ib 16:57:17 GMT - 02/09/2016
"how soon will the Syrian army, its Hezbollah allies and the Russian air force set their course for the Isis “capital” of Raqqa?"...
Things are not going to plan in Syria it would seem. The geopolitical chessboard is not working out like our neocon planners had hoped.
“Our economy is the strongest, most durable on Earth,” - 0 bama
Israel Dil 16:06:55 GMT - 02/09/2016
yes, Putin is very afraid from the one in the enclosed photo....
'dc' 'CB' 16:05:11 GMT - 02/09/2016
President Obama will seek $19 billion for a major cybersecurity initiative across the federal government, the White House said Tuesday, a $5 billion increase over the current fiscal year to modernize government computers that have been repeatedly hacked — often spectacularly.
If you read the mainstream press and wires you would be forgiven for thinking that the current melt down is: 1. Chinese and/or 2. European and anything else well it's just accidental spillover from the 'real problem'. The Aussie press even had a story out reporting that the AUD got hammered Friday because of 'resurgent' USD following a very good NFP report. Like what?
You gotta love these guys, they relentlessly stay 'on message'.
Fact check from Mr Lapthorne:
"Earnings have never been cut this dramatically outside a recession. The worst earnings momentum on the planet is not in Asia, it's not emerging markets, it's not in Europe. It's in the US." FT 16/17 January 2016
Not that you would expect 'the narrative' to change or anything.
Meanwhile back at the farm the world waits for Japan to do more to debauch its own currency in aid of the USD. Draghi is pretty much seen to be on the same team. The 'other side", if you will, is China and Russia and the U.S. strategy is to use geopolitics (wars and sanctions and bad press and the funding of internal dissent) to take them out. That strategy has worked before in other countries and regions but to work again it would take a confused China and Russia and we don't have that right now. China and Russia are on to the game.
USD outlook? On the one hand we have ugly fundamentals. On the other we have a willing team of currency debauchers working for the world's Central Banks. Take your pick.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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