There are two things that Fed models have wrong - productivity and inflation expectations
And when measuring comparative bond yields or FX these two are significant (not so much for equities)
'dc' 'CB' 22:38:34 GMT - 02/10/2016
'dc' 'CB' 20:33 GMT February 10, 2016
But wait but wait.....still waiting as the Obvious follow-up question was never put to Trader Yellen...Where in the Congresssional Mandate does it say that the Fed is a Profit Making Trading Operation..
another day in red ... it's another message, same as yesterday, with hope that someone will understand it - we'll see
london red 21:02:44 GMT - 02/10/2016
CB correction day tomorrow. more interesting each year is not what is said first day, but what is added on the second.
yen. 50% fib pierced. next is 11030/35 interim 11180. but watch the rollover as a 11330 save means all is not lost. they can make a tail tomorrow however low they go intraday, so you have to be careful.
PAR21:02:27 GMT - 02/10/2016
The real jobless rate is 42 percent? Donald Trump has a point, sort of
'dc' 'CB' 20:58:50 GMT - 02/10/2016
I wonder what the market will look like tom afternoon after the Senate is finished with The Queen.
With ZIRP or NIRP nobody dares to spend and everybody is just sitting on their savings .
With $ 100.000 in savings and rates at 5% grandparents would spent every year $ 5.000 and be happy .
With rates at O they spend nothing and are UNHAPPY .
Paris ib 20:49:20 GMT - 02/10/2016
Look I hate to tell you but this whole idea that a huge segment of the population could just stop working and live off 'investment income' is just INSANE at the outset. That idea was never going to work. How could it? Who provides the income for these people to do NOTHING? It's gotta come from somewhere. Encouraging people even to think that way and plan that way is just nuts. If zero interest stops this insanity then it will have at least served some purpose. Pension plans, superannuation, government pension schemes are all insane and its time everyone worked that one out.
'dc' 'CB' 20:45:08 GMT - 02/10/2016
savers are scared. Lower interest rates have wrecked their retirement plans. Say you were doing some financial planning 10 years ago and plugged in 3% from your savings account. Now its 0%. You still have to plan for your retirement. Plug in 0%. What happens to your planning now? 0% compounded for X years is 0%. The math is simple. So in order to have your target savings at retirement, you need to save more, not spend more. But for some reason, the economists that run central banks around the world canít see this. They are all stuck in their offices talking to one another and self-reinforcing this myth that they can drive spending up by reducing the rate of return on investments. Want to see consumer spending go up? Donít wreck their savings plans so that they are too scared to spend. But thatís too simple. Instead, central banks use a chain of causation that doesnít exist to try to create change 3 or 4 steps down the line.
The policy of negative interest rates is thus consistent with the agenda to drive small banks out of business and consolidate banking sectors in industrialised countries, increasing concentration and control in the banking sector.
NO MORE CASH
Central bankers, after all, have had an explicit interest in introducing e-money from the moment the global financial crisis beganÖ
The introduction of a cashless society empowers central banks greatly. A cashless society, after all, not only makes things like negative interest rates possible, it transfers absolute control of the money supply to the central bank, mostly by turning it into a universal banker that competes directly with private banks for public deposits. All digital deposits become base money
She scared the market with her talk about that she is authorized to introduce negative interest rates and with her warnings on US government debt .
'dc' 'CB' 20:33:24 GMT - 02/10/2016
Don't know if you caught the exchange when Yellen was being questioned about why the FED is paying 0.50% interest on Excess reserves that banks have held with the FED. (come to think of it that's 5 times the interest that my bank pays me on my checking/savings acct).
the questioner wanted to know why the Fed was paying the banks double the "declared" FedFunds Rate,---he rolled off a large number as How much that was Per Year, and wasn't that encouraging the big banks to NOT lend this money to those who want it.
Not to worry sez Trader Yellen...we make more on the instruments that we hold ---Treas, MBS---than we pay out, we actually make money TraderYellen Sez...we returned $100bln to the Treasury last year....(with pride in her voice)
But wait but wait.....still waiting as the Obvious follow-up question was never put to Trader Yellen...Where is the Congresssional Mandate does it say that the Fed is a Profit Making Trading Operation..
'Livingston' 'nh' 19:44:50 GMT - 02/10/2016
Re; US debt -- Fed has 20% of fed debt that it will feed back to Gov't - so the deficit is hardly a problem -- it is one of the reasons the Fed is supporting a Fiscal tightening// government debt is MONEY and Fed's job in years past was to control the growth of currency
PAR18:33:15 GMT - 02/10/2016
Sounding rather pessimistic , especially about ballooning UD government debt . From $ 10 trillion to $ 20 trillion in less than 8 years . YES WE CAN
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.