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dc CB  15:46:48 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Crude and SToX are joined at the hip:

1)Energy Co Stocks which are circling.
2) Financials - which circling the drain due to their loan exposure to near or bankrupt energy companies.


GVI Forex john bland  15:21:28 GMT - 03/09/2016  
another build in crude inventories seen today.


NY JM  15:02:00 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Looks like flows are in JPY crosses vs offsets elsewhere (note AUDJPY)


GVI Forex john bland  14:45:04 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Bank of Canada at the top of the hour. No rate change expected, but a dovish statement likely.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:44:27 GMT - 03/09/2016  
I posted this earlier on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:29:36 GMT - 03/09/2016
My levels work

Note 1.0979 held dead on

USDJPY: No one talks about March 31 fiscal year end, which used to be a key focus this time of year.

Be on watch for signs that fiscal year end repatriation flows have run their course if in fact this has been a source of JPY demand


Mtl JP  14:16:31 GMT - 03/09/2016  
net short euro COTs heading into Draghi were 2.5x of current one
one can speculate whatever one wants on what it may or not mean for a reaction to how-ever a disappointment would be perceived
-
Personally favour selling euro on pops while under 1.10 and under 1.1050


PAR 14:15:01 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Goldman doubles down on calls to short the euro ahead of ECB

Goldman’s economists have called for a 10 basis-point deposit-rate cut, and for the central bank to increase its monthly asset purchases by €10 billion. But Brooks believes the ECB will go even further — possibly cutting its deposit rate by 20 basis points or more while committing hundreds of billions of additional euros to its program of monthly asset purchases.

The Goldman team has stood by its call for the euro to hit parity with the dollar even as many other strategists have backed away from that view over the past six months.

Goldman’s current forecasts put the euro at 95 cents in 12 months.


bali sja  13:59:57 GMT - 03/09/2016  
nh, agree with that
market is positioning that way...


Livingston nh  13:55:52 GMT - 03/09/2016  
JP - on top of other issues an ECB " disappointment " sees sub 1.08 pretty quickly


jkt abel  13:54:51 GMT - 03/09/2016  
sja, too early to tell, could easily fall back


bali sja  13:53:04 GMT - 03/09/2016  
usdjpy sending buy signal....


PAR 13:52:04 GMT - 03/09/2016  
BANK OF AMERICA: Central banks are losing the ability to turn 'water into wine'


bali sja  13:47:38 GMT - 03/09/2016  
so Draghi does not need to appear, euro is already tanking
he must be having an easy day tomorrow


Mtl JP  13:34:35 GMT - 03/09/2016  
nh to put some numbers on the "disappointment" :
unless u r part of the "In the Circle" privileged ones and known already that the Italian will be announcing a minimum 25base points cut get ready for 1.1+ euro


Livingston nh  13:19:15 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Oil's recent run-up may see profit taking regardless of the inventory figures

Setup for ECB depends on market reaction to "disappointment" - last time EUR jumped but it would be a bit unusual to react the same way twice (if Draghi wants a 1.07 EUR he may see this too)

CAD active if BoC seen as bit hawkish to offset new PM's fiscal policy


PAR 12:41:52 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Non performing Italian loans > Put in an Italian bad bank > give Italian state guarantee to the non performing loans > sell these non performing loans with an Italian state guarantee to the ECB

Madoff Squared .


PAR 12:35:04 GMT - 03/09/2016  
For Italian banks negative interest rates are no problem since they have NO MONEY .


Israel Dil  12:07:02 GMT - 03/09/2016  
what Draghi can do while the major drive is ro 'sustain' social rest?

with the holy ratio:
10% untouchable because they are financially poor
80% keeping paying taxes for everybody and without any time either energy left to make any change
9% untouchable because their assets keep the balance
1% controls the masses narrative and for themselves they can anywhere and they can anything as they wish

so, what Draghi can actually do?


London  Chris  11:33:10 GMT - 03/09/2016  
The reason Draghi didn't deliver was because he could not get the votes to do it.

Same risk this time if the hawks make a case to not be aggressive.

Watch headlines vs, substance tomorrow.


Mtl JP  11:22:08 GMT - 03/09/2016  
“There is little doubt in our minds that the ECB wants to surprise this week, not just because of the inflation picture, but also because it disappointed in December, inadvertently tightening financial conditions materially,” Goldman Sachs chief currency strategist Robin Brooks
-
now - right or wrong - there is a trade idea.
at least Brooks does not drain himself by whining and complaining into feeling miserable like ib or PAR who - like almost all - were born crying but live complaining to likely die disappointed


PAR 11:06:02 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Draghi - " you cant always get what you want " .

Something will always go wrong with Draghi policies . The Euro will go down but the banks will go bankrupt . Market rates will go up and Italy will go bankrupt . What comes out of Frankfurt may be good for some hedge funds but has always been bad for the rest of the world .


PAR 11:00:57 GMT - 03/09/2016  
As must be prophet Mohammed .


Israel Dil  10:59:05 GMT - 03/09/2016  
when Draghi wants it down then it goes below he low of ~1.04


Brisbane Flip  10:58:06 GMT - 03/09/2016  
PAR Marx and Lenin must be very proud of how Europe is turning out...


Israel Dil  10:56:33 GMT - 03/09/2016  
are there Japanese left to tell?

Japanese go off the grid



PAR 10:52:49 GMT - 03/09/2016  
ECB will buy non performing loans , bank shares , energy shares , Italian real estate , French milk, spanish porc and huge quantities of Greek ouzo .


bali sja  10:49:17 GMT - 03/09/2016  
Draghi will make sure euro sees 1.07-1.08


Mtl JP  10:34:18 GMT - 03/09/2016  
dlryen tells you that about the only thing being produced in China in quantity is copious amounts of bullsh!t

audusd up around 0.7490 has yet to figure out what the japanese know already


GVI Forex john bland  10:24:04 GMT - 03/09/2016  
DAX +48
DJ +47
SP +5

10-yr
US 1.866% +3.6 bp
DE 0.198% +2.1
UK 1.411% +6.9
JP -0.021% +7.4

WTI $37.06 +0.58 ($37.12-36.25)

EUR broadly lower on its crosses


GVI Forex john bland  10:14:56 GMT - 03/09/2016  
  • Tomorrow's ECB policy decision remains the headline event of the week. A break in EURUSD to below 1.10 today could be in anticipation of ECB ease. While President Draghi is expected to make a dovish presentation, many fear his actions will not measure up to his rhetoric.
  • Street expectations are for the central bank to cut the Bank Deposit Rate by another 10bps to -0.40%, and possibly increase its bond purchases (QE).
  • Central bank policy decisions are due over the day from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. No rate changes are seen from either. Both are expected to maintain a dovish tone to their policy statements.






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