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Israel Dil  15:04:32 GMT - 03/10/2016  
bottom line: nothing happened... status quo and it's exactly what the central bankers striving for


dc CB  15:04:29 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Euro drops like a stone as ECB cuts all rates and expand QE to €80bn per month.

but wait


GVI Forex john bland  14:40:16 GMT - 03/10/2016  
ECB Press conference has concluded


Mtl JP  14:27:38 GMT - 03/10/2016  
maybe time for mario to roll out
“There is no plan B, there is only one plan,”
“If you print enough money, you will always get inflation. Always,”
Praet ECB’s top economist in early january

oh what fun it is to be making fun of one of god's workers
how-ever temporary it may be


houston mw  14:23:42 GMT - 03/10/2016  
John, only thing left for Draghi is to outright sell Euros if it is his desire to see it much weaker.


GVI Forex john bland  14:09:01 GMT - 03/10/2016  
I am feeling more strongly about my view expressed below now that Mario is speakuing


GVI Forex john bland  14:07:42 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Posted on GVI earlier

Thursday Trade
GVI Forex john bland 13:01 GMT 03/10/2016
Im wondering if this is a "kitchen sink" easing. ECB threw everything in because they expect this will be their final ease.

I wonder also how long it will be before the markets perceive it this way?


GVI Forex 12:47:32 GMT - 03/10/2016  
ECB going all in

Cuts all 3 rates + increase QE by 20 bln


Mtl JP  12:44:55 GMT - 03/10/2016  
ab 12:39 in case of crisis / panic expect players to run to the dollar


Mtl JP  12:42:57 GMT - 03/10/2016  
when I was growing up in Europe debt was a nasty concept and most folks only paid cash so would by only that which they had money for. Including building a house - one room at a time as their cash savings would allow. If my cousins being in debt up to their eyeballs and + is any indication of what happened over the last 20 or so years the situation of debt and interest has very dynamically changed.

I do not have the actual concrete numbers handy but judging from the progressive concepts being put forward by Mario the situation is probably dire.


EMPOLI ab  12:39:53 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Jp, Jay how do u see equities with a disappointing ecb or no disappointing ecb respectively pls


PAR 12:38:30 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Currencies: Substantial ECB easing might be a negative for the euro
Today’s ECB meeting will also by key for the next directional move in EUR/USD. We expect a further substantial ECB easing. Contrary to what was the case in December we see chances for a decline of the euro as the market is positioned less euro short than was the case at that time.


Israel Dil  12:38:16 GMT - 03/10/2016  
1.52 is a realistic level to cash profits from euro longs after turning NET long


Israel Dil  12:34:16 GMT - 03/10/2016  
JP

I have no clue what happened to them, I know what the learned and teaches further, 'make sure no one knows you have money as it will not help them and surely will harm you'


EMPOLI ab  12:33:43 GMT - 03/10/2016  
PAR 12:23 GMT 03/10/2016

correct.... startig form now it need 45% appreciation


but if u say it weakend 45% from the highs (1,60) is not correct as
1,60*0,45 is 0,72 bps which wud mean a rate of 0,88


Mtl JP  12:31:28 GMT - 03/10/2016  
16yrs... time is , usually, a friend to those holding a bag of interest collecting debt . what has happened to the nominal amount of debt outstanding and what has happened to the expected interest to be collected on that mountain since 16yrs ago ?


Israel Dil  12:26:26 GMT - 03/10/2016  
EURO/USD will rise 50% above 0.98 and this doesn't mean it will not go lower than 0.98.... don't ask me now about the timing ;-)


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:25:56 GMT - 03/10/2016  
A little history:

Jan 4, 1999 launch rate for the EURUSD was 1.1747 so after 16+ years, it is currently about -6.5% from that level.


PAR 12:23:57 GMT - 03/10/2016  
1.09 *1.45= 1.58

Euro needs to rise more than 45 % to get to 1.60 again.



Mtl JP  12:21:13 GMT - 03/10/2016  
the other issue of course is the issue of a gigantic amounts of collective debt that has outrun the economy's ability to service it. So an even bigger effort by the CBonkers is being made to not to have to recognize that as non-performing.
-
suggest to expect knee jerk disappointment reaction if the rate cut is not 25bps or more. Mario probably needs to over-deliver so that the kids dont throw a fit.


EMPOLI ab  12:18:47 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Mtl JP 12:10 GMT 03/10/2016 - My Profile

from the high at 1,60 lvl it weakend more or less 30pct (45 is too much...), maybe Par meant this


EMPOLI ab  12:18:08 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Mtl JP 12:10 GMT 03/10/2016 - My Profile

from the high at 1,60 lvl it weakend more or less 30pct (45 is too much...), maybe Par meant this


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:13:43 GMT - 03/10/2016  
I understand but at this point it is like pushing on a string.

Re ECB: Remember the rate announcement comes first and then Draghi's press conference where he will reveal other measures. There are also revised forecasts.

One thought is there could be a knee jerk disappointment reaction if the rate cut is 10bp.


Mtl JP  12:10:35 GMT - 03/10/2016  
by what math is Euro already weakened about 45 % from its high against the USD ??

1.1376 - 1.10 = only some -3.3% off


Mtl JP  12:05:58 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Jay re not sure what the purpose of cutting rates and more QE is
-
It is a CBonkers' desperate attempt to make money circulate in an economy that is similar to an emergency situation by a vet trying to remove a toothpick stuck cross-wise in a turkey's gizzard.


Israel Dil  12:03:17 GMT - 03/10/2016  
JP

print of 10820 this week and we are at parity at no time, just my 2 cents


PAR 12:00:32 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Dont forget the Euro already weakened about 45 % from its high against the USD and that most of the trade in Europe is inter European .


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:57:12 GMT - 03/10/2016  
All we can be sure of is that the market will move on the ECB.

One scenario is a repeat of NFP where EURUSD initially fell sharply and then reversed to squeeze the shorts.

The opposite is a risk as well as there are likely stops above the market.

Personally I am not sure what the purpose of cutting rates and more QE is if businesses and individuals are not looking to borrow.

ECB seems stuck as it has to do something even though it will do little to stimulate the economy. A sharply lower EURUSD would help but around 1.10 it is essentially midway in what has essentially been a 1.05-1.15 range for almost a year.


Mtl JP  11:53:35 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Dil not 1.07 but 1.05 - 1.14
1.05 was the low the december day mario kicked players in their collective nuts and caused a 4% rocket ride in his beloved euro to 1.0981

Not rocket science to appreciate players being once screwed twice shy now.


Israel Dil  11:48:16 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Jay

as traders I trust a break away from ~ 1.07-1.12 range is the issue. meanwhile the EUR/USD remains watching paint dries market.

what Draghi can actually say or do so extraordinary that the whole market goes BUY or SELL euros like there is no tomorrow for months?

at this point of time I believe that EZ needs export to non EU zones to get closer to getting out of the down economy. weaker euro should help a lot.


PAR 11:44:02 GMT - 03/10/2016  
DJ Goldman Says ECB Unlikely to be Repeat of December -- Market Talk

1133 GMT Ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, Goldman Sachs strategist Robin Brooks says that he is of the opinion that "December was an unfortunate outlier and see three factors that could make today's meeting a dovish surprise." He says that this time around the market has had more time to digest low inflation data, that there has been less "front-running" by the ECB President and that there is no interest rate raise from the US Federal reserve around the corner. All of these factors mean that Thursday won't be a repeat of December's meeting


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:39:42 GMT - 03/10/2016  
Let's handicap possible reactions to the ECB meeting.

What would be considered a surprise or a disappointment?

Consensus seems to be a 10bp deposit rate cut and $10 bln per month increase in QE.

There are also calls for a 20bp rate cut and/or 20bln increase in QE.

There could also be some other tweaks to QE.

Your comments and ideas please.






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