A love affair:
"I like him" ... as one of the great monetary fools in history
------------------------------------------------------------------
Former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi will go down as one of the greatest “monetary fools” in history after negative interest rates failed to prop up Europe’s economy, according to the former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
“I do think that Mr. Draghi, who I happen to have a personal admiration for – I like him, I know him, I spent a lot of time with him when I was at the central bank – probably will go down as one of the great monetary fools in history,” Richard Fisher, now a senior advisor for Barclays PLC, told BNN Bloomberg’s Amanda Lang on Wednesday.
Fisher added that Draghi’s negative interest rate regime didn’t lift up Europe’s economy, left Germany in a recession, and “decimated” the banking system.
Draghi ended his term at the ECB last month after eight years in the role. Former International Monetary head Christine Lagarde stepped into the position Nov.1.
During his tenure, Draghi introduced negative rates in 2014 and pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro during a debt meltdown in 2012. But he failed to meet his inflation goal of just under two per cent with the ECB reporting its harmonized consumer price index at 0.8 per cent in September, the most recent month data available.
“He knows how to talk to markets, he’s a brilliant man,” Fisher said. “Wait and see, but I think negative interest rates will be proven to be a very bad experiment.”
“I don’t think this is a one- or two-year phenomenon. I think we definitely are in a period of four or five years of sustained 3 percent growth at least,” Mnuchin said in an interview with ‘Fox News Sunday.’
-- Mnuchin Suggests Fed Rate Rises Are OK After Trump Attacked Them - BBRG JULY 29
“The Fed has been targeting 2 percent inflation,” Mnuchin said on “Fox News Sunday.” “Obviously, with 2 percent inflation we have to have at least slightly higher interest rates to manage through that.” ... .. ... Mnuchin insisted that Trump respects the independence of the Fed, even though the president has “concern” about interest rates going up. “We as an administration absolutely support the independence of the Fed,” Mnuchin said.
It is all so Obviously obvious. Except for
“The only question is how far and for how long” they’ll increase.
“We think the Fed will be very careful in managing the economy,” the Treasury secretary added.
The arrogance of claiming that someone is "managing the economy" is astounding.
fwiw mid - afternoon :
ECBs Villeroy, Knot and Lane yak
Mtl JP 12:46:55 GMT - 04/20/2018
USDCAD
Res 3 1.2794
Res 2 1.2736
Res 1 1.2700
Pivot 1.2642
Mtl JP 12:23:34 GMT - 04/20/2018
or to m/m or to core
robot basically does not care
just to price acceleration this or that way
Mtl JP 12:19:30 GMT - 04/20/2018
CAD 1.2635
At bottom of hour:
A CA CPI yy con: 2.40% pre: 2.20%
A CA CPI mm con: 0.40% pre: 0.60%
A CA CPI Median yy con: 2.00% pre: 2.10%
-
I think primary algo reaction is going to be to y/y
---
Speedy robot loaded & lurking
close all other charts and feeds and unnecessary windows to optimize tradestation for speed
Mtl JP 08:27:28 GMT - 04/20/2018
according to the cretin there are “other meetings” this year
Justin pretty sox and hair Trudeau defining Vital Interest :
@JustinTrudeau
11h11 hours ago
Why are major energy projects of vital interest to Canada? Because they’re vital to the people who work hard every day to provide for their families.
Mtl JP 01:48:43 GMT - 04/16/2018
pussygrabber probably preparing more rants
as ABC interview airs Sunday evening at 10 p.m
ROFL
nw kw 22:26:29 GMT - 04/15/2018
context this week good aud and jpy soft gl. or long u/j and audjpy
nw kw 22:22:09 GMT - 04/15/2018
context usa coal bypasses export limitation from shipping it out ca. bc.
Mtl JP 21:51:06 GMT - 04/15/2018
to put things in context a bit:
from earlier rtrs piece:
....Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) Deputy Chairman Frank McKenna, a member of Alberta�s pipeline advisory task force, said he raised the issue with Trudeau in a recent call and that Ottawa has to �provide deal certainty ... a backstop�.
�That could be something in the nature of an indemnity agreement or a guarantee against potential losses that would come from political instability and not based on normal construction risk,� said McKenna, a former premier of New Brunswick.
TD Bank is Kinder Morgan Canada�s biggest lender. �At the end of the day this pipeline can�t be allowed to fail, it would be a huge blow to the leadership of the country and to the image of the country.�
April 02 2018 - some publicly traded CBs:
SWISS NATIONAL BANK trading around 7540CHF
BELGIUM NATIONAL BANK trading around 2,980.00 EUR
BANK OF JAPAN trading around 35,050.00 JPY
"MBS comes to Washington with the rhetoric of a domestic reformer, but under his arm he clutches the shopping-list of a war-monger that includes the acquisition of nuclear reactors." no less
(Wapo - March 20) Trump told reporters: “I had a call with .. Putin ... the call had to do, also, with the fact that we will probably get together in the not too distant future so that we can discuss arms, we can discuss the arms race... we are spending $700 billion this year on our military, and a lot of it is that we are going to remain stronger than any other nation in the world, by far.”
Probably looking for ways for Vlad to co-operate to help justify spend a $ trillion next year. -> = new trade opportunity
after feeding over $700 billion per year to delivery machines and makers of bombs bullets calls something that "could save $214 billion over a decade ... .. ...substantial savings”
White House sees U.S. growth 50% faster than the Fed does
The latest projections show that the gap between what the Office of Management and Budget and the Federal Reserve projects for gross-domestic-product growth is as wide as 50%.
In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!
AT Amazing Trader john bland 14:23:02 GMT - 01/18/2018
ECB's Couere due to speak @14:30 GMT. we are looking for any signal on ECB policy bias for next Thursday.
Mtl JP 10:24:09 GMT - 01/18/2018
It has been a while since I had a good laugh , especially as I remind myself that "past performance is no guarantee of future results" which is a must disclaimer for professionals and companies but not for PhD'd "experts" who the pedestrians are expected to revere
China, Seeking Growth, Softens Focus on Cutting Debt - WSJ
In economic blueprint for 2018, Beijing to dial back emphasis on curbing lending that spurs economy
..."Trump will unveil his administration's National Security Strategy on Monday, laying out its objectives and how it views various threats.
According to officials who briefed reporters Sunday, the strategy -- a congressionally mandated document -- identifies four national interests: protecting the homeland, advancing American prosperity, preserving peace through strength and pushing American influence by new approaches to development.
The President will discuss the strategy during a speech Monday afternoon in Washington."...
you funny (old) man jp, even very funny. after breaking down the possible income scheme behind AT due to the unaware aspects in your behavioural social personality, you come with this unaware dance again. how old you was when comparison by/to others made you feel "little" and since then you trust making comparisons to make you "powerful", "smart" and "in control"... get aware jp, just get aware, it's gonna make wonders to your (list/hidden) empathy. :-))))
Dil
Mtl JP 18:56:01 GMT - 12/05/2017
Dil 18:29 r u referring to the thread's title ? I would gladly "extremely overvaluae generals and military people in general" IF it paid biggly.
With respect to "100% taxation over inheritance. that's what humanity needs." it is the Empire that gets its food from taxation and how that gets spent. "humanity" has approx 0 influence. So you have a choice to whine like Ib or PAR or join and do like the thread suggests.
"Appear to own nothing, but control everything." - John's great grandson Nelson.
Israel Dil 18:29:39 GMT - 12/05/2017
jp - don't you extremely overvaluae generals and military people in general? how is that possible to have warmth towards people making a living from an agenda of politicians?
time for 100% taxation over inheritance. that's what humanity needs.
Livingston nh 17:57:04 GMT - 12/05/2017
JP - it's called the BIG Mistake tactic - if the opponent goes for the "easy" move the Trap snaps shut -- Iran has avoided this since the Carter debacle - Reagan declined in Lebanon
Bush, the idiot son, had no clue despite his father's taking advantage of Saddam
Mtl JP 17:50:43 GMT - 12/05/2017
Dil but I do note what it takes for some “Little Rocket Man” increase the visual acuity and focus to point of distraction of some bombastic trump-et-eer so that he sends, to within 400-500 mile range, at least three $8 + billion , $40+ million per week supercarriers with at least 5,000 young men per. It blows my mind to think his generals allow this concentration of extremely vulnerable to cheap missiles targets to mass.
Mtl JP 16:44:29 GMT - 12/05/2017
Dil I am afraid my knowledge of "giraffe on mount everest hear"ing ability of some mouse is less than limited: it is non-existent
Israel Dil 16:34:07 GMT - 12/05/2017
Mtl JP 16:28
can giraffe on mount everest hear a mouse at the dead sea?
that's the value of Abbas's "warning"
Mtl JP 16:31:53 GMT - 12/05/2017
missed this part: "A senior administration official said last week that Trump would likely make the announcement on Wednesday"
Mtl JP 16:28:52 GMT - 12/05/2017
according to haaretz:
Trump Informs Abbas He Intends to Move U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, Palestinians Say and
unless the next headline is something along the lines of nh 17:40
maybe the political class of entertainers will make orange costumes the next fashion fad
dc CB 19:57:44 GMT - 12/01/2017
The weekend NuZ cycle is set - wall to wall
ON: Trump Russia
OFF: feeling up females by high paid TV stars and Network Execs, Congressional Slush Fund taxpayer money paying off felt-up Congressional aides, Uranium One, The Clinton Foundation tax problems, the crumbling DNC, HRC's newly found emails.
It's a Big Win for the side that lost the election. LOL
112.05
Japan is waking up and will come on soon - in approx half hour
potential for yakker to push prices around some at open
Mtl JP 18:59:23 GMT - 11/29/2017
for change in flavor ... speculation vs certainty:
whined janet: "having only 3 governors is difficult but doesn't stop the Fed's work" during her Q&A
I am biased: I want to believe janet that "doesn't stop the Fed's work"
more moRE MORE trade opps a-coming curtesy the FED
Mtl JP 15:15:14 GMT - 11/29/2017
Any wonder Gold is down and dlr uP?
Paroles... paroles... paroles...
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
@realDonaldTrump
Follow Follow @realDonaldTrump
Just spoke to President XI JINPING of China concerning the provocative actions of North Korea. Additional major sanctions will be imposed on North Korea today. This situation will be handled!
The ECB cretinhood is out yet again - they do this 2x/yr - with their "Financial Stability Review"
Where the ECB sees "Risk" I see OPPORTUNITY.
Lets see...
29 November 2017
- Risks of a repricing of global risk premia remains significant
- Bank profitability prospects still challenged by structural vulnerabilities
- High private and public debt burdens could give rise to debt sustainability concerns in some countries
- Financial stability risks partly mitigated by improved economic conditions
- The risk of a rapid repricing in global markets nevertheless remains
- Risks to euro area financial stability may also emerge from the investment fund sector. This sector has further increased its risk-taking in recent years.
The Review singles out four main risks to financial stability in the euro area over the next two years (see table).
Last week-end canadian MSM was all over itself parading whining and crying and pi$$edoff canadian politicians of all genders and colors after 5th round of NAFTA yaks suggesting trump-et's team is not interested in a win-win-win deal. One could think they have given up on canada's by faaarrr biggest trade partner.
The political collective was suggesting to canadian businesses to go out and seize and make new deals with EM countries specifically pointing mainly at China and India (highlighting massive demographics and implying massive opportunities) among a slew of others claiming that in this day and age of internet physical distance is not a major barrier anymore.
Now I reading that ... "The Russian Security Council has asked the country’s government to develop an independent internet infrastructure for BRICS nations, which would continue to work in the event of global internet malfunctions. ... .. ... They decided that the problem should be addressed by creating a separate backup system of Domain Name Servers (DNS), which would not be subject to control by international organizations. This system would be used by countries of the BRICS bloc – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. " ...
by the next trading day after thanksgiving, UKRAINE to play major role in VIX spike.
Livingston nh 20:08:08 GMT - 11/21/2017
I'm not a real big fan of leverage sometimes - I've tried currency options but it's not the same as stox - margin is not my game except VERY short time frame and TIGHT stop, too nerve racking and sleep depriving
Israel Dil 20:01:57 GMT - 11/21/2017
nh
you played it spot the whole way?
what's the reason for not opening the position with forward rate and then close it with interest paying shorts to the same date?
Livingston nh 19:57:11 GMT - 11/21/2017
thanx dil but the vig ate up a lot of it
Israel Dil 19:46:25 GMT - 11/21/2017
nh
nice +10% ride with USD/TRY, well done.
PAR19:33:27 GMT - 11/21/2017
Next Erdogan wants to tap ECB liquidity ? Mafia Mario may agree .
Livingston nh 19:28:11 GMT - 11/21/2017
jp - not as much as last year - BUT the view is the same - Erdogan and the "independent" CB are at loggerheads -- capital controls are coming // Merkel weakness may be a temptation for Erdogan for another payout -- OPEC may be a problem next week as turkey's new best friends, Iran and Russia, take advantage of the Saudi revolution
Mtl JP 19:00:34 GMT - 11/21/2017
Livingston nh u still yank on the usdtry ?
puppy has had a decent run of late,
what is ur forward view ? tia
Mtl JP 18:56:34 GMT - 11/21/2017
I like playing gaps - one of my fave plays.
But, naturally, I would hate to "fall for it" on the next gap that will appear and, as this puppy's pictorial record consistently shows, so far they always close, but on the one time I decide to play it, it won't.
Mtl JP 18:07:10 GMT - 11/21/2017
9.86
VIX day range: 9.69 - 10.78
Israel Dil 18:03:21 GMT - 11/21/2017
wider the gap to be JP... it's about the point of everything being too perfect, ding-dong boom!
Mtl JP 18:01:02 GMT - 11/21/2017
Dil just opportunistically
long us week-end coming up
should not see players engage long-term possies
Israel Dil 17:55:49 GMT - 11/21/2017
hey jp... today and tomorrow, do you plan some VIX loading again?
Obama's "business" card: former US president
JP's "business" card: former economist
the word "former" used three times in this post
Mtl JP 15:45:18 GMT - 11/17/2017
big f-ing diff: Thomson Data Analyst: $52577 average
granted salaryman's income is steady vs that of "independent"
ps / I am a former economist who has lost respect for the "on the other hand" putz-hood.
Mtl JP 15:34:30 GMT - 11/17/2017
ok ib ignore is easy nuff to do.
actually in my 12:06 post I was hoping - perhaps foolishly - to collude for mutual benefit vs the collusion-ist CBankers
Paris ib 15:28:42 GMT - 11/17/2017
J. Walter Thompson is some other industry.
Paris ib 15:26:31 GMT - 11/17/2017
JP you are way out of date matie. Thomson was my first job out of University way back when. Working independently is what you expect it to be: more freedom, more responsability. No regrets but seriously mind your own business. :-)
Mtl JP 15:23:27 GMT - 11/17/2017
ib u asked.. I didn't count: search on ib provided
-
so pray tell... how rewarding is "work independently" vs typical J. Walter Thompson Worldwide Financial Analyst salary is $52,273. Financial Analyst salaries at J. Walter Thompson Worldwide can range from $46,366-$60,000 curtesy glassdoor.com ?
Paris ib 15:15:36 GMT - 11/17/2017
Seriously? You even counted. Permit me: GOOD GRIEF !!
Paris ib 15:14:47 GMT - 11/17/2017
JP you obviously have too much time on your hands.
Mtl JP 15:12:51 GMT - 11/17/2017
64 occurrences of "good grief" agony cries from archive search on Paris ib
Paris ib 15:07:29 GMT - 11/17/2017
JP where is the 'Agony' in your opinion?
Mtl JP 15:03:35 GMT - 11/17/2017
ib re "Stop reading the financial tabloids" honestly I would want to take your suggestion - from a former "Market Analyst for Thomson Financial" seriously. Is Draghi's missive of "financial tabloid" quality ?
tia
Paris ib 14:50:16 GMT - 11/17/2017
JP you obviously live in a parallel Universe. Stop reading the financial tabloids or wherever you get your financial information. Agony? I mean please.
Mtl JP 12:24:02 GMT - 11/17/2017
and IF you - anyone really - have money on deposit in EU banks, with respect to draghi's promise of "building up buffers for the future" I invite you to read my 15:34 GMT November 16
Mtl JP 12:06:14 GMT - 11/17/2017
PAR and Paris ib I may have some bad news for you: your agony appears to be FAR from over:
mario "bazooka" draghi , in his Nov 17th "Monetary policy and the outlook for the economy" both self-congratulatory and flagellating yak delivered the following promise:
..."while we are confident in the recovery, we still need a patient and persistent approach to our monetary policy to ensure that medium-term price stability is achieved. ... . ... Despite this progress on the real side of the economy, from a monetary policy perspective our task is not complete, as we have not yet seen a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. ... A sustained adjustment is one where the return of headline inflation towards our objective is durable and not just a temporary blip, and it can be self-sustained without monetary policy support. We do now see inflation moving steadily away from the very low levels of recent years, although progress remains incomplete and partial." Seeing that ... "our task is not complete, as we have not yet seen a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. ... progress remains incomplete and partial ... the underlying inflation trend remains subdued ... it still lacks clear upward momentum ... we have to remain patient ... An ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation over the medium term. " ....
jp in other words Williams is spouting more of the same
Mtl JP 22:20:51 GMT - 11/16/2017
...."In the event of a future recession we will need to lean more heavily on unconventional tools, like central bank balance sheets, keeping interest rates very low for a long time, and potentially even negative policy rates."....
new trade opportunities courtesy our OECD friends:
Stable growth momentum remains the assessment for the United States, Japan, Canada and the euro area as a whole, including France. The CLI continues to point to growth gaining momentum in Italy, and now also in Germany. In the United Kingdom, however the outlook has weakened as signals of easing growth have intensified.
Amongst major emerging economies, the CLIs point to growth firming in Brazil and to signs of growth gaining momentum in the industrial sector in China. Stable growth momentum is anticipated in India and Russia.
Amazing Trader next resistance untouched at 1.1593 (high was 1.1589). Ladder forming to the downside, suggests a top may be in but only a break of 1.1566 (next AT Ladder support) would break the lingering risk on the upside.
Amazing Trader Jay Meisler 15:38:35 GMT - 11/07/2017
jp - Yellen gave a speech a week ago as the IMF world bank gathered (Group of Thirty) about her inflation surprise which was a redo of her Sept inflation confusion speech
The speech from Friday at the economists club had the "Fed did a great job", inflation surprise and a rehash of the unknowable R* // none of this seems tradeable if the Confused Economist is on her way out the door
Mtl JP 21:38:24 GMT - 10/21/2017
nh tky - I am looking for the one that appears to be more trade-able: I ve been seeing references to
fwiw mkt is more dovish than fed so minutes will be more hawkish relative to mkt but will there be anything new frm last time to push beyond dec which is baked in.
Mtl JP 17:51:50 GMT - 10/11/2017
Last minutes were 474 words long.
I do not have the ability to read and react ahead of the dealer.
So I ll keep it simple: either I sit it it out for a few minutes and maybe fade the reaction OR
I turn on my OCO straddling robot few seconds prior
and pray I do not fall victim to flash widening spread
Mtl JP 17:40:13 GMT - 10/11/2017
I grade praets risk potential same as FED minutes: AA
Mtl JP 17:27:13 GMT - 10/11/2017
ok folks that time approaching again
at top of the hour:
18:00 AA USFRB Fed Policy Minutes
follows
Wednesday, 11 Oct 2017
Board member:Peter Praet
Event:Speech by Mr Praet at SUERF Conference in New York, USA.
Time:16:30 local time / 22:30 CET
Venue:245 Park Avenue, New York, NY
He may be able to push prices around some as well as he is supposed to yak about exit tactics (not from eu, from QE to be clear)
I am somewhat surprised at the late aft time for Praets yak
It may be earlier
Mtl JP 17:10:14 GMT - 10/10/2017
1.2500
in less than an hour from now potential to make/lose pips off
Panel remarks - Carolyn A. Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor
International Monetary Fund Washington, DC
14:00 (ET)
Remarks will not be published on the Bank’s website.
-
Trying to keep it simple:
I would be looking to either
sell 1.2550-ish OR
buy 1.2450-ish
jp - China... USA and Russia shown their true capabilities as war mongers, China from the other hand, got rich by enslavement of their own people, means it's one fake hot air balloon .... poof :-)))
gold additionally to oil... relax, calm down, take a deep breath, enjoy it, keep it going
Russia and USA, not together maybe but well in extraordinary harmonious manner supply arms, weapons and full range of whatever makes wars to run forever without getting a winner our of ones taking actual role in the war but the ones who feed the war on keep going.
Saudia vs Iran war means that both win but not less important also Russia and USA... China? - as always, social religion about infinite youth has a price, no reason to treat China different than western woman addictions to plastic surgeries to keep her public appearances forever "young".... China is a short, big time short :-)))
Chinese in panic mode it's GOLD in ultra all time highs
think about it and play accordingly
Dil
Mtl JP 21:15:18 GMT - 10/08/2017
just like a basement-saving country volunteer fire department... here comes LONDON (Reuters) - Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England, said he hoped a new requirement for lenders to hold more capital would dampen signs of a “bit of exuberance” in credit card and personal lending to British consumers.
ACHTUNG !! potential to make/lose pips at 1/4 past the hour
dudley - voting dove - yaks policy
and Q/A
Mtl JP 01:30:11 GMT - 10/06/2017
Gold/usd 1268.65 - and sofar zzzzs
-
courtesy zerohedge:
President Trump Warns Ominously: "It's The Calm Before The Storm"
"You guys know what this represents? Maybe it's the calm before the storm," he said.
"It could be the calm... before... the storm."
A reporter quickly asked what the storm might be -"Is it Iran, ISIS, what's the storm?" to which he replied...
Amazing weather here - 31/2hrs to janet's intro yak
to me not worth waiting for ooohh / aaaahh b/s
better things to do than waste time on her
-
usdcad 1.2484
I am biased down
- think puppy has 50/100 nega-pips
Mtl JP 10:59:06 GMT - 10/04/2017
last kick at the can before he rides off onto the garbage heap of history
06:36 Fischer says pace of interest-rate hikes is 'ok'
06:36 Fed's Fischer says he expects inflation to pick up
MarketWatch
jkt abel 08:09:35 GMT - 09/29/2017
nobody is attacking what to nobody
get that sensitivity out of the window please and have a peace inside
you can trade better without all those burdens
ESP AC 07:36:05 GMT - 09/29/2017
instead of attacking me, why not attack DC CB for saying that comment to Al in the first place??
The world is so fecked up...
And Hilly, how do you know he is not? Why did he feel the need to make that comment if he is not? And even if he is racist, why did he need to say it?/
As a whitey I am constantly amazed by this reverse racism today.
Just leave it out of this place and trade ffs...
Mtl JP 07:34:25 GMT - 09/29/2017
In the meantime rokstar of banking yakking
gbp took a bit of a puke on his claim that when he ll be raising rates it will be very tender and careful - according to him
USA ZEUS 07:22:43 GMT - 09/29/2017
Agree I don't believe for a second CB or his comments were racist. But who am I to say? Discussing politics and religion with so many people from all over the world with small soundbites and brief comments is all to easy to be misinterpreted. Greatest challenge of this forum in my opinion.
Hence I will only engage in trading related conversation. Sometimes that gets mis-interpreted as well but we try.
Cheers!
Hillegom Purk 07:18:49 GMT - 09/29/2017
I cannot believe DC CB is criticising Tonbridge Al for having a white, English accent!
I have never seen such a racist comment on here, ever, in over 12 years of looking in.
__________________________________
He is not a racist.
jkt abel 07:17:00 GMT - 09/29/2017
racist? what racist comment? I dont even know what you guys are talking about.
AL didn't even complain about it
why should you get so fumed out ESP, AC? relax and chill out a bit
I dont understand why people are getting mad so easily these days
anyway, all i am saying please calm down and let's just focus on trading and get that sensitive thing away
ESP AC 05:43:09 GMT - 09/29/2017
I cannot believe DC CB is criticising Tonbridge Al for having a white, English accent!
I have never seen such a racist comment on here, ever, in over 12 years of looking in.
Totally out of order attacking one of the longest running members who has contributed more to this place than anyone.
I am so fecking upset by that attack, DC CB after years of posting here has lost all credibility, he should be totally ignored by everyone and basically run out of town....
dc CB 03:11:18 GMT - 09/29/2017
"The problem with Bombardier is ..."
good deflction LOL
Dillon AL 00:59:18 GMT - 09/29/2017
The problem with Bombardier is that it produces a plane that Boeing does not and Delta ordered this plane. Bombardier is a minute company vs Boeing and it is hard to understand why Boeing lobbied Trump to impose the tariffs. Theresa May has suggested The UK would stop ordering from Boeing so the drum beat starts. Recession when it comes will hit hard and fast
Debt to a penny shows Jan 19th 2017 19.944 Tln and if you remember Trump was so upbeat about the fact that it had declined in the early days of his administration...well it is now as of today 20.189 Tln
In sept alone it has jumped 365 bln and if the excuse is Hurricanes then frankly that is a load of bollocks and hides the true reason for the rise
Lower Growth higher debt higher interest rates = higher Usd methinks not
dc CB 00:48:28 GMT - 09/29/2017
"
But then as a lowly immigrant myself what do I really know and judging from rhetoric from Steve Bannon what do I really contribute
give me a f*c'in break
you have. I assume, and English accent, based on your Trading Vid...That my mate is ....well I'll not post that here.
You have the wherewithall to Buy into a Colorado Ski destination. LOL population ---400? Bali HI
Cry me a : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeXvaHZj5tw
Re: Tax cuts:
talk of corp rate at 35% is a nonsense. Ask AAPL and their tax is closer to 20% right now so the idea that growth will pay for is utter baloney
and additionally takes no account of any problems/black swan from China or even Europe for that matter. If the strategy is to impose tariffs - Bombardier style - and result in creating a so called trade war then the world will have a recession from which there are no winners.
As to so called overseas money being repatriated I am not sure how Usd held in overseas banks because that is essentially what it is coming back "home" makes a blind bit of difference.
H1B visas show that The US is incapable of producing what CSCO/MSFT/GOOG/ etc need so what makes this administration believe that the current workforce IE those unemployed but not seeking a job actually want a job. What I am trying to say is that the Baby Boomers are tired and the current available entitled Millennial workforce do not want a job hence growth is unlikely to occur to the extent that Gary I wanna be The Next FED guy hopes for
But then as a lowly immigrant myself what do I really know and judging from rhetoric from Steve Bannon what do I really contribute
Dillon AL 23:35 re BTW has anyone suggested how exactly the current proposed tax changes are going to be paid for or do they expect GDP growth to cover it? You just had to ask eh ?
PS
If any of these last MegaCaines had ridden up the east coast.
** direct line into the Chesapeake Bay -- taking out DC, Balt, Philly.
** Taggin the OuterBanks, corssiing Long Island flooding Manhattan, crush banhrupt Connecticut, and drowing Boston.
We'd be looking at a whole differnent outlook. There but for the Grace of the Winds or the gods or the Black Swan that we but didn't land...Whatever.
September was close to turning the East Coast into what you are now seeing come out ot Puerto Rico.
And Trump and WashDC would be 'takin' a knee'
dc CB 23:46:45 GMT - 09/28/2017
re-enforce their illusion, by repeating that msg.
by repeating THEIR msg...
dc CB 23:44:52 GMT - 09/28/2017
AL
the Demos' no longer exist. They have yet to discover that for themselves. THE Media(short them) re-enforce their illusion, by repeating that msg.
The Repubs -- similar. The UniParty is at RISK. The worst that can happen is Nov 22 '63.
The battle will take years. Fall 2018 is a marker.
Right now, so it seems the Money shows support or the current.
New Highs into the Bonus End of the Quarter ....Tom Tom the sun will shine Tomrrow....it's only a day away.
Dillon AL 23:35:29 GMT - 09/28/2017
The D's need to fold and finally accept that they lost.... period. They lost not because of Russia or anything else but they lost cos noone liked their leader. It seems as well that her current round of being interviewed is nothing more than an attempt to have another go in 3-1/2 years time at which point they will guarantee the incumbent another term.
Of course the fact that the two houses have miserably failed to enact any headline legislation is not really surprising and things like Russia are a good distraction to try to suggest to their electorate that they are doing something meaningful
Now do not get me wrong there is much to fault the R's as well but...
BTW has anyone suggested how exactly the current proposed tax changes are going to be paid for or do they expect GDP growth to cover it?
dc CB 23:29:43 GMT - 09/28/2017
Dis Means WAR...CUE...You're on Hillary.
(pssssst pssst psst. She lost)
Israel Dil 22:28:47 GMT - 09/28/2017
from Kurdistan to Europe via Turkey as Russian production. there is a new sheriff in town (middle east).
Earlier today Twitter Vice President for Public Policy Colin Crowell met with staff from Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to discuss how Twitter may have been exploited by sneaky Russian operatives to sway the course of American history by undermining the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.
After spending months investigating, Twitter apparently was only able to find 201 accounts (out of roughly 68 million in the U.S., btw) linked to "potentially Russian related" users. Moreover, and undoubtedly adding to Warner's frustration, Twitter further noted that not a single one of the 201 accounts "were registered as advertisers on Twitter."
euro up again so i will stay long euro....i was busy today in cars biz today made nice gain in cars could not make pipsin forex this week.....look like gbpjpy want 153/155 this week if stay above 150 till tomorrow then very possible 153 or 147.....
Mtl JP 14:15:32 GMT - 09/28/2017
SellEURUSD Entry: ~ 1.18 Target: down Stop: 1.1810/25
.
Mtl JP 14:07:51 GMT - 09/28/2017
Fischer's turn - yakking now
so far not useful
Mtl JP 14:00:29 GMT - 09/28/2017
effect of trump-et man's tax reform babble appears to have half-life of a fruit fly
Livingston nh 13:08:49 GMT - 09/28/2017
Monthly and Quarter adjustments may be trading off Cretins more than usual -- Fed Head appointment, Carney rate hike, Draghi taper are all open items
Mtl JP 12:44:04 GMT - 09/28/2017
in an hour from now will yak hawk George
15 minutes later: rider onto garbage heap of history Fisher
Israel Dil 12:28:40 GMT - 09/28/2017
SellEURUSD Entry: Target: 1.1666 Stop:
let's see :-)))
Mtl JP 12:18:51 GMT - 09/28/2017
potential trade opp to make/lose pips coming up at bottom of hour
AA US GDP
Mtl JP 12:11:48 GMT - 09/28/2017
uncountable, the socially responsible choices janet makes via bbrg:
I like trying to make pips off Cretins. It is fun and I like the ease that is associated with it. However Cretins of the political denomination, being peddled as "expert"s require prudence. Always.
With that in mind consider:
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea expects North Korea to engage in more provocative action next month to coincide with the anniversary of the founding of its communist party and China’s all-important Communist Party Congress.
In a meeting with President Moon Jae-in on Thursday, national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18, but gave no details.
Dil I like to keep things simple.
I don't have any particular buy Gold pricing level
My robot is just sitting there, 24hrs, looking for certain price acceleration and price breakout to jump on. I've told him - my robot - to look at buy only and send me a sound alert and an email if it is jumping on.
~
Israel Dil 17:39:45 GMT - 09/27/2017
jp - you gold buyer between 124x-126x ?
Mtl JP 17:25:06 GMT - 09/27/2017
One less trade opportunity to make/lose pips:
Who is it that is sick again ? .... A person familiar with the matter said Draghi’s decision was due to a health issue affecting one of his relatives. as
12:45 p.m. (i.e in 39 minutes)
Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy
59th NABE Annual Meeting, Cleveland, Ohio
--
lets see if the current usd bid will have been temporary
Mtl JP 15:29:23 GMT - 09/26/2017
nh that would be good for Gold
Livingston nh 15:10:24 GMT - 09/26/2017
Jp - with fischer gone Yellen has 2 confirmed doves (Kashkari and Brainard) and 2 data doves (Kaplan and Evans) w/ Powell and Harker as toss-ups -- if President Trump throws her overboard the doves may be emboldened to block a hike
Mtl JP 14:46:47 GMT - 09/26/2017
sofar no posi-pips worth talking about riding either Mester o Brainard
I am on record here on FF about what the simple solution to the cretins' confusion about inflation is. It basic nomenclature.
2 kinds of inflation:
a) money supply inflation or printing
b) price inflation
To keep things simple:
a) = conjuring more money units today than there were yesterday all the while the units of goods or services remains steady.
b) = measure of willingness of plebs (as opposed to not willingness) to part with more money units for same item or hour of service today than yesterday.
Explanation: the fault lies in the Economics 101 assumption that IF there is an increase in the number of "money" units in an environment of steady number of available units of goods or services that plebs will be willing to part with more money units for the same loaf / shoe shine service.
dc CB 19:36:28 GMT - 09/25/2017
McMaster Says Cannot Discount Possibility of War With N. Korea: BBG
dc CB 19:09:25 GMT - 09/25/2017
CHINA SAYS U.S.-N. KOREA ISSUE GETTING `TOO DANGEROUS': RTRS
dc CB 18:59:30 GMT - 09/25/2017
Cretins indeed. Cna't even agree about wtf is actually happening.
What Janet - "miffed by low inflation" - Yellen delivered was a sell-off in 2-yr paper. One has to go back nearly 10 (ten !) years to see the yield on the 2-yr paper this high.
The So What ? Bottom Line
I am biased. I like keeping things simple:
US Dollar has a positive correlation with 2-yr Treasury paper yield.
When the yield goes uP usd gets (more often than not) bid.
Dollar <-> 2yr yield correlation trade maybe not be easy but is definitely easier compared to other trades.
Hi Charlie ! It would be 2 long to essplain where "this stupid sh*t" comes from but to keep it simple in current geo-political environment "this stupid sh*t" has decent potential to move prices (ie new trade opportunities). Note that it only optional to trade off "this stupid sh*t";
-
Early indications are that us stox are going to open lower again this morning in the wake of reports by South Korea's Yonhap news agency of possible hydrogen bomb tests over the Pacific Ocean.
Calendar heads for good potential for new trade opps:
janet, the same janet who admitted she is clueless about "inflation" is scheduled to yak about exactly that same topic on the 26th at the NABE conference
Memphis Charles 22:41:32 GMT - 09/21/2017
Where in the world does this stupid sh*t come from? Take it to the political forum if you can't resist the editorial commentary that does nothing for trading forex.
Mtl JP 21:21:32 GMT - 09/21/2017
here is aping-ing man munchkin making sure trump-et man's message got repeated:
Mnuchin says companies working with North Korea are ‘on notice’
Jkt Abel 17:12:08 GMT - 09/21/2017
Even if pboc says so, there is no way Trump is going to control and monitor if it is implemented fully. Trump trusts China when he has been attacking their trade relationship? Thanks America for this clown Potus.
Mtl JP 16:52:05 GMT - 09/21/2017
this needs confirmation by a Chinese source:
12:30 Trump: China's central bank told banks to stop doing business with North Korea - MarketWatch
as I have not seen PBoC appoint trump-et man its mouthpiece
Action and then the reaction as the birds change direction -- decoder rings at the ready
Hillegom Purk 17:53:34 GMT - 09/20/2017
or both sides... i would like that...
Mtl JP 17:51:52 GMT - 09/20/2017
on the other hand ...
IF eurdlr goes sub 119.50 current bulls would probably get culled
Mtl JP 17:44:01 GMT - 09/20/2017
I am just guessing players are probably more ready / inclined to dump the dollar than to buy it atm
Mtl JP 17:39:56 GMT - 09/20/2017
Laowen no trade is also a respectable position
Beijing Laowen 17:38:26 GMT - 09/20/2017
Mtl JP 17:06 GMT 09/20/2017
====================
JP, will you be trading the event? I'd refrain.
Mtl JP 17:06:47 GMT - 09/20/2017
suggestion reminder for those using MT4 to trade 18:00 FED:
time to fine tune it for optimal speed
Mtl JP 16:52:02 GMT - 09/20/2017
there is a reason trump-et man's generals are sending in additional aircraft carriers: they do not want to be in position to have to try to shoot down a NK ballistic puppy. Why ? Because they don't want the embarrassment of demonstrating that they can not shoot it down for the world to see
So their fallback option is to rattle conventional hardware.
Bottom Line
will there be a war ? odds are against it
But decent trade opps remain as long as there is rattle: BoD Gold
Mtl JP 15:58:48 GMT - 09/18/2017
so far huff 'n puff bombast (hailey, trump now lighthizer)
soon they will have to stop b/s and deliver some beef
Not shorting unless above 1.36...to 1.37 today
Getting 1.15 level for next year
Mtl JP 15:31:27 GMT - 09/18/2017
gbp retesting the low
Mtl JP 15:29:33 GMT - 09/18/2017
players are onto the rockstar's b/s
I can just imagine the audience ... experts ... sitting... lapping up his regurgitation of deja-vu ... trying to remain awake ... decide when to applaud ... all the while thinking how many martinis to sla down the hatch at lunch
uh-m "great" is a favorite adjective with the BIS crowd of experts in whose opinion "excessive leverage by the household sector was at the heart of the Great Financial Crisis." They even have an acronym for it: GFC
makes their jargon more sophisticated, expert-like
“If we leave it too late, it is going to be much more difficult to accomplish that unwinding. Even if there are some short-term bumps in the road it would be much more advisable to stay the course and begin that process of normalization.” “The policy challenge is to take advantage of the current tailwinds to put the expansion on a sounder footing,”
In the wake of BoC actual and BoE gumflap-tual hikes our next bet is to determine which CB - there are two on the GV Econ calendar this week + a bunch of gums flapper yakkers not on it - is next to
trade plan:
to try to skin posi-pips off the upcoming BoE I prefer to ride the eurgbp puppy
Mtl JP 07:37:09 GMT - 09/14/2017
next up:
14/09/17 11:00 AA GB Bank of England con: 0.50% pre: 0.50%
Mtl JP 07:33:05 GMT - 09/14/2017
snb stays pat
Mtl JP 07:18:57 GMT - 09/14/2017
from GV Forex Calendar
14/09/17 7:30 A CH SNB con: -0.75% pre: -0.75%
-
I am biased long
Mtl JP 09:11:42 GMT - 09/13/2017
one dick waver yet to be monetized:
“We sent a message that anybody who wanted to trade with North Korea – we would consider them not trading with us.” “if China doesn’t follow these sanctions, we will put additional sanctions on them and prevent them from accessing the US and international dollar system.”
Israel Dil 19:28:29 GMT - 09/11/2017
OMG this is not a parody script, it's reality
PAR19:25:40 GMT - 09/11/2017
Mnuchin , Cohn tax plan and don"t forget YELLEN s reappointment .
Mtl JP 19:06:55 GMT - 09/11/2017
Ladies and Gents - prepare to chose your horse and place your bets
The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea. - tweety, 9:14 AM - 3 Sep 2017
any country = also China.
stopping all trade: china exports approx $40billion / month to the US
two way trade = ~ $600 billion/yr
luckily for donald , he is just considering
Mtl JP 17:15:41 GMT - 09/02/2017
Price-move Vulnerable Instruments :
- Gold - us t-note - usdyen
ps / so far I have not seen any hiss from china
Schedule of naval operations is set for the first time in effort to pressure Beijing over its maritime claims
Ok, in short usdcad 1.2645. Thank you market. Let's go down big!!! NFP bring it on!!!
dc CB 02:36:39 GMT - 08/31/2017
tom'row is the End of the Month AND the Start of the Last Weekend of the US Summer.
If you've been watching the Gasoline market in the US, RBOB (yes RoyBob), which is expensive to trade - 1Cent move = $420, along with being a Thin market --- takes second place to NatGas aka the WidowMaker. This week, despite the FundyMentals, you could get really hosed or really rich if you Timed the Daily Swings.
As micro example for the larger MaRKiT. So Tom'row is take the money and run day. Fri, New Month, UnEmployment Rpt released...trading will end around 10AM NY Time. Save the Algos. which are always active.
See You on Tues.......watch Irma---last big hit on the Eastern US seaboard was Sandy. Big time gap to fill. If not Irma then one of the bowling balls that is setting up...watch the African Coast .... the Beast is Birthing.
Bali Sja 00:39:07 GMT - 08/31/2017
JP, i am trying short usd again after stopped out yesterday
This time short usdcad on approach to 1.2650-60. Got somr 4hourly MA resistance. Stop above 1.2720 will do for a target 1.24 again
Mtl JP 23:39:10 GMT - 08/30/2017
I only wish! ... things would go beyond talk :
BOJ, ECB, and Fed jockey for position as a stronger currency might derail fragile recoveries
in reality's language: my dear friend president Putin agreed to handle the matter for me, at this moment I cannot disclose the sums and details involved in the transaction...
Mtl JP 13:03:46 GMT - 08/30/2017
Donald the strategist , tactician and diplomat:
"The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!"
-
"omne trium perfectum" everything that comes in threes is perfect
1) - three arrows
2) - 3 risks for Americans from President Trump’s latest trade fight with China
3) - at a personal level: I can hardly wait:
-- "First, imposing tariffs on imports of Chinese goods and services would be the functional equivalent of a tax hike on American consumers. ... the costs of imported goods would undoubtedly rise sharply. ... higher import prices and potential spillover effects on underlying inflation would hit middle-class U.S. workers, who have faced more than three decades of real wage stagnation, especially hard."
BUT IT WOULD ENORMOUSLY PLEASE THE TOP CRETIN AND HER 2% INFLATION HUNTING GANG
-- "Second, trade actions against China could lead to higher U.S. interest rates. Foreigners currently own about 30% of all U.S. Treasury securities"
BUT IT WOULD ENORMOUSLY PLEASE THE TOP CRETIN AND HER OOOHHH / AAAHHH RATE-HIKE ON/OFF UNABLE TO DECIDE GANG
-- "Third, with growth in U.S. domestic demand still depressed, American companies need to rely more on external demand. .... ... ... As the reactive pathology of co-dependency would suggest, none of these countries can be expected to acquiesce to such measures without curtailing U.S. access to their markets”
HERE ROACH IS WRONG: TRUMP SENDING THE DOLLAR INTO THE TOILET TRUMPS
Pass The Ammo
Theres a storm on the horizon and
My adrenalines runnin wild
But I got my brothers standing next to me
So praise the lord and
Pass the ammo
Stars Stripes and Camo
Theres a price to be paid
To stay free .../..
as noted earlier: Box(ed) Lunch - pastrami on White(new data - the crust trimmed), mayo, with a side of lettuce and one slice of tomato.
Aug 21, 2017 6:45 PM
Tonight at 9:00 pm, Trump will address the nation, unveiling the administration's "New Path Forward" for America's engagement in Afghanistan and South Asia as discussed yesterday. While we will have a more thorough preview shortly, moments ago the key highlights of the upcoming speech were leaked online courtesy of Fox News' Jennifer Griffin, and are as follows:
The president has signed off on 4,000 more US troops to Afghanistan; not clear he will talk numbers tonight. No talk of withdrawal.
In speech tonight Pres Trump will ask "region to do more," will ask "India and Pakistan to do more to bring Taliban to negotiating table.
Trump strategy to include negotiating w/ Taliban. In past Qatar negotiations failed because Pres Obama announced troop withdrawals: US official
Intel CEO Resigns From Trump Manufacturing Council Over "Divided Political Climate"
WTF Cares...Dude. We bought BTC at $10...You Are All OLD SCHOOL. it took you decades of hard WORK...WE just bought this fantasy 8 years ago and are now Billionaires.
TnX...your Millenial Offspring
nw kw 03:08:30 GMT - 08/15/2017
eurjpy looks long sling shot in gold ranges, Mondays jpy shorts? usasgd ?
Prof Wrestling aka WWF or current...(Trump) variation of TV Entertainment.
In professional wrestling parlance, a "work" is anything scripted (i.e. anything that's part of kayfabe), while a "shoot" is anything "real" (i.e. not scripted). Put them together and you have the worked shoot; something that is definitely part of the act, but attempts to trick the viewer into thinking (if only for a second) that it's real.
dc CB 00:44:18 GMT - 08/15/2017
Dave Collum @DavidBCollum - Prof of Organic Chemistry @ Cornell.
"If you cannot turn bearish when a rogue state is threatening a missile strike against US territory, when can you?"
--a colleague
dc CB 00:21:13 GMT - 08/15/2017
Buy the BS NukeWar
dc CB 01:03 GMT 08/14/2017
Buy SToX
Sell Treas
dc CB 00:19:05 GMT - 08/15/2017
SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided not to launch a threatened missile attack on Guam
LOL Kim SEZ: that was fun...made a ton trading against my threats....FU CFTC/SEC LOLOLOLOL
"My Mouth Is Bigger than Janet Yellen's" hahahahahahah AmeriKun Losers
Mtl JP 00:06:10 GMT - 08/15/2017
Gold off about 10 bux
SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided not to launch a threatened missile attack on Guam, Pyongyang’s state media reported on Tuesday, but warned that he could change his mind “if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions.”
.."As such, the ’China policy put’ may be a bigger driver for offshore stocks than North Korea tensions, and the Federal Reserve, in the months ahead."...
...."At the start of 2015 there were three countries in the world that were willing to have a strong currency. The Swiss, the Chinese, and the U.S. The Swiss pulled the rip cord overnight. They just ripped it off and said, 'We are done. We are done having a strong currency. It is too expensive to defend this," - Dec 14, 2016
This turkey - a top advisor to trump - was #2 man at GS during the momentous shenanigans by the SNB trying to peg their franc.
by all evidence currency policy is very central to trump. Gary, endorsed by Dudley, should be one fine team.
Dudley: "I don't want to evaluate the various candidates for the Federal Reserve except to say that I think Gary is a reasonable candidate."
dc CB 18:56:47 GMT - 08/14/2017
FYI in SToX, this is OPEX week. Put and Call shenanigans thru Thurs.
Lot's of FEAR (puts) sold last week, spurned on by Big Investors calling a Top, Gundlach bragging about loading SnP Puts expecting a 400% return...
Mtl JP 18:26:45 GMT - 08/14/2017
Dudley on prospects of a rate hike:
DUDLEY: I think it depends on how the economic forecast evolves. If it evolves in line with my expectations, I would expect -- I would be in favor of doing another rate hike later this year.
So I am wondering .... is "If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so" just bluster or serious challenge to the American would-be meddler ?
One possibility is, that this planned bombardment of Guam waters, is a classical war deception.
Of course it is. With what they would go to war against US? Few missiles or maybe million soldiers who can probably swim to Guam?
Also, N. Korea not having Russia and China on their side shows they are all alone.
One possibility is, that this planned bombardment of Guam waters, is a classical war deception.
Doesn't make too much sense to tell your enemies your war plans in such details.
Anyway such a threat should be taken as serious as it looks like.
Practically war preparations have already begun for all sides.
Prepare your soft drinks and snacks.
Sydney ACC 04:52:12 GMT - 08/10/2017
The Guardian is carrying a report that North Korea plan to bombard the sea near Guam with missiles. A North Korean spokesperson claims a missile will take 1,065 seconds to hit a mark 30 kms to 40 kms from Guam. That's less than 18 minutes from launch to landing at the target.
An ICBM travels between 15,000 mph to 22,000 mph.
If that doesn't give you the bejesus I don't know what would.
Mtl JP 01:52:33 GMT - 08/10/2017
Reminder - hope you paid attention - there is money to be made from scared public.
Brian Williams:
maybe but odds are it will continue to be in Gold / swissy
-
woosh here goes the usd uP
Livingston nh 13:11:44 GMT - 08/09/2017
jp - this situation is very different than anything in our lifetimes - the President's decision will not be on twitter
Amazing Trader john bland 13:10:51 GMT - 08/09/2017
fyi Trump has been very active today.
As for Guam, on a trip to Asia, Secretary Tillerson made an unscheduled special short stop in Guam. This was clearly to send a signal to North Korea that the u.S. would defend it.
Mtl JP 13:07:27 GMT - 08/09/2017
@realDonaldTrump
...Hopefully we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!
just like janet's Jun 28, 2017 -"I Don't Believe We Will See Another Crisis In Our Lifetime" ?
Mtl JP 13:07:27 GMT - 08/09/2017
@realDonaldTrump
...Hopefully we will never have to use this power, but there will never be a time that we are not the most powerful nation in the world!
just like janet's Jun 28, 2017 -"I Don't Believe We Will See Another Crisis In Our Lifetime" ?
Mtl JP 13:00:30 GMT - 08/09/2017
u think trump + twitter quiet possible ?
Livingston nh 12:56:39 GMT - 08/09/2017
JP- when it goes quiet and folks become unavailable for comment markets should begin to pay attention
Mtl JP 12:41:03 GMT - 08/09/2017
cretin to cretin diplomatic communication 101
tillerson essplains:
the gong show ... by experts
these two should come to perform at Montreal Laugh Festival:
Greenspan: Fischer do not worry so much about low interest rates... the low level of rates won’t last, and when they move they are likely to move “reasonably fast.” That should be the concern.
And as if Al telepathically read Stanleys Qtn Greenspan did not say exactly when bond yields would move higher, but said it was inevitable.
Want to trade on that Stanley ?
Man it is nice to know your salary paycheck is going to be there next Thursday no matter what
for the record - alleged expert words from Stanley:
Fed's Fischer: Weak economy is keeping interest rates low
CNBC-1 hour ago
Fed's Fischer said political uncertainty holding back investment
Reuters-1 hour ago
Mtl JP 17:56:13 GMT - 07/26/2017
MT4 - suggest closing all un-necessary windows to help with speed trade execution instructions
Mtl JP 17:56:13 GMT - 07/26/2017
MT4 - suggest closing all un-necessary windows to help with speed trade execution instructions
Mtl JP 15:11:13 GMT - 07/26/2017
nh what is the Mark Carney qtn ?
Livingston nh 12:49:26 GMT - 07/26/2017
America's answer to Mark Carney
Mtl JP 12:48:01 GMT - 07/26/2017
so no not hubris.
a top requirement qualification
Mtl JP 12:48:01 GMT - 07/26/2017
so no not hubris.
a top requirement qualification
Mtl JP 12:46:25 GMT - 07/26/2017
nh - ditto : Mtl JP 16:32 GMT October 14, 2016
john I argue(d) that one of the biggest scoring Qs in interviewing for FED position is not some wizardry w/math modeling but communication skills , ability to propagandize and to carry lies.
Mtl JP 12:46:25 GMT - 07/26/2017
nh - ditto : Mtl JP 16:32 GMT October 14, 2016
john I argue(d) that one of the biggest scoring Qs in interviewing for FED position is not some wizardry w/math modeling but communication skills , ability to propagandize and to carry lies.
Livingston nh 12:42:31 GMT - 07/26/2017
JP- As Yellen gets the Giuliani, Romney, Christie qualified nod of approval from President Trump I submit the following from the 50/50 candidate:
"I think all of us around this table, myself included, do tend to make a lot out of the communications challenges and what markets want and need, but these markets can be led, and they can be led ably to good places, so we ought not be intimidated by that prospect."
Ahh Leading market to a good place - how does that sound?? I'm in! --- Hubris?
Mtl JP 12:31:01 GMT - 07/26/2017
before janet and her crew (a $2.5billion/yr chewing up outfit) grace us with yet another opportunity to +/- affect our accounts comes new homes sales release. Mind you perhaps not as breathlessly anticipated as the FED gang's spill of wisdom but worthy of attention at 10am NYT nevertheless
dc CB 12:45:49 GMT - 07/24/2017
CD can crack 80 easy maybe 8050 if Oil plays the Numbers -- Magnet Under the Black.
dc CB 12:14:08 GMT - 07/24/2017
2014 John Deere 8345R, 401 hours, IVT, ILS: $190,000
Ranchers placed 16.1 percent more cattle in U.S. feedlots last month than in June 2016, making it the most for the month in more than a decade, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported on Friday.
Belgrade Knez 12:03:28 GMT - 07/24/2017
london red
thank you for your answer, and yes, I realize 233 is fibo no. as soon as I posted my question, but in GV forum you can't delete or edit your post.
london red 11:52:18 GMT - 07/24/2017
its part of a fibo sequence...1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377 and so on...
233 happens to fit well and worked. traders like whatever worked well...or whatever didnt work well, its the same thing for long/short trader.
Belgrade Knez 11:50:42 GMT - 07/24/2017
SORRY MY BAD ..... 233 IS FIBO NO.
Belgrade Knez 11:46:52 GMT - 07/24/2017
london red
I understand reason of following MA with value: 50, 100, 200... fibo numbers, etc ..... but why 233 dma is the one to follow? anything special with that number please?
dc CB 11:39:09 GMT - 07/24/2017
HUH
UBS Downgrades Goldman On Slump In Trading Revenues
yah, but Goldman Runs the WhiteHouse, the BOE, the ECB and soon the FED.
Genius UbbbbbbbbbbbS stutter much?
london red 11:32:46 GMT - 07/24/2017
yen. todays low is bang on the 233dma. the last 2 occasions the mkt tested 233dma, there was no close below it and yielded a multi fig topside move. mkt is at imp point here. close below 233dma would be seen as something new, something bearish. u would be looking at 105-108 in such case.
perth wtr 11:28:00 GMT - 07/24/2017
usdjpy's aim today is to stay below 111
dc CB 10:26:59 GMT - 07/24/2017
OK Principal
sue me
dc CB 10:21:16 GMT - 07/24/2017
JP
sorry But That is a Crock
if You/Folks knew that their Principle would remain and that they could Spend the earnings (interest) on that principal ...The F*ckin' Economy wud be humm' along
THE FACT IS that if they Spend, they are Drawing DOWN the Principle...
To put in into a Traders Lingo...If the DrawDown Exceeds the Profit...YOU GO BROKE
Mtl JP 09:42:08 GMT - 07/24/2017
CBankers have a vision of "inflation"
so does Walmart, Amazon, Costco et al
the chasm between the grasp of what makes folks want to spend is staggering
typically the only place and time when folks want to voluntarily spend more and bid prices up is at an auction
atypically when folks want to eagerly spend their money is in a time of rampant price-inflation (like in zimbabwe / venezuela / ...)
and then consider what will happen when don sends granny pakin': she ll go back to teaching ! spread the disease...
this means means only one thing: more trading opps
with and off the cretins
dc CB 09:35:51 GMT - 07/24/2017
joining the pantheon of "who the f*k are they"
just a few who held power over lives - Once Upon a Time
From the International Monetary Fund (sunday release)
- cut its U.S. gross domestic product forecast for 2017 to 2.1% from a prior forecast of 2.3%, and its 2018 outlook to 2.1% from 2.5%.
- for U.K. growth was cut to 1.7% from 2.0% for 2017
- growth projections revised up for this year for Germany, France, Italy and Spain
srce: Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
From the International Monetary Fund (sunday release)
- cut its U.S. gross domestic product forecast for 2017 to 2.1% from a prior forecast of 2.3%, and its 2018 outlook to 2.1% from 2.5%.
- for U.K. growth was cut to 1.7% from 2.0% for 2017
- growth projections revised up for this year for Germany, France, Italy and Spain
srce: Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
for mario babbling about rate hikes will not be on the agenda (and not anytime soon)
mario's eurozone still needs and will continue to need a “very substantial degree of monetary accommodation”
keep in mind that the EB dirigistes under mario's leadership are not out do us any favours: they are afraid that plain talk (about exit signals) will yet again offer outsized profits to traders
Mtl JP 05:20:04 GMT - 07/19/2017
oh how convenient: a cop out excuse for lack of "success" battling price deflation
Presented in WSJ By Megumi Fujikawa
Monetary Policy in Japan Has a New Problem: Amazon
Thanks JP, your comments are much appreciated as always
Mtl JP 13:14:52 GMT - 12/23/2016
for today? no real reason to get excited about usdyen either way
maybe buy some dips if seen
Singapore SGFxTrader 12:58:43 GMT - 12/23/2016
JP, thanks for the note.
Any view on USDJPY?
Mtl JP 12:36:51 GMT - 12/23/2016
never lose sight of CBs primary tools:
- fiat money
- market'a credibility in their bull$hit
Singapore SGFxTrader 12:01:25 GMT - 12/23/2016
JP, what do they mean by having a better communication with the market?
Means they will drop more hints to the market or try to influence market movement with their press release or speech just like what Draghi and Yellen like to do?
Mtl JP 11:23:13 GMT - 12/23/2016
Kuroda highlights a more communicative BOJ
Central bank dials back surprise tactics
"I find employing the Costanza method to trading an interesting exercise."
Easier said than done. When the Japanese invited George Soros to explain to them why they make so much money in production while losing on every investment they did (Hawaii, NY, Van Gogh....) he said:
In Production you have to do the things right. In Investment you have to do the Right Thing!"
If you think about this for a moment you realize that he told them to do the OPPOSITE of what they were doing. The trouble is that the OPPOSITE is NOT SO CLEAR!
He told them that they did not know how to SELECT the next trade.
To know the OPPOSITE-- you have to know what STRAIGHT IS-- and by being a loser you already belong to the class of those who DO NOT know the RIGHT thing.
Not so simple
Mtl JP 03:22:17 GMT - 12/23/2016
CB 02:16 I still have those two SnP gaps I mentioned a few times sitting n gapping patiently
Mtl JP 03:19:01 GMT - 12/23/2016
CB 02:08 I note that that method - counter major trend - often works on the eurdlr after about 5am and during about 7-11am in NYT session
dc CB 02:16:01 GMT - 12/23/2016
while Mark-To- Market values of key asset holdings in pension portfolios have shifted violently, pensions have specific quotas to adhere to, which in this case means selling winners and buying losers to return to their mandated allocation percentages.
As a result, according to Lin's analysis, the “estimated rotation out of domestic U.S. equities would be one of the largest on record” with relatively large outperformance versus other asset classes both on a monthly and quarterly basis. Additionally, Lin estimates selling of $864 million in developed market international stocks.
While the exodus from US and International stocks would be substantial, the offset to this would be an aggressively buying of more than $6.3 billion in emerging market equities. Another offset would be the purchase of that "other" formerly beloved asset class: bonds, where pensions could end up buying approximately $22 billion.
There is more bad news: the Credit Suisse analysts believes the selling in U.S. equities could increase to nearly $58 billion (and bond buying to over $35 billion) should equity-bond relative performance continue to widen before year-end.
Assuming his analysis is correct, the question is how will this exaggerated selling take place in the five remaining trading days of 2016 during what is already extremely thin and illiquid tape, where most traders are now gone on holiday, and in which HFTs are just salivating at the thought of frontrunning major block orders: remember, HFT works both on the way up and, in some very rare occasions, on the way down
For those of you not familiar with George Costanza, his character on the sitcom Seinfeld could do no right when it came to employment, dating, and life in general. In one episode, George realizes over lunch at the diner with Jerry that if every instinct he has is wrong; then doing the opposite must be right. George then resolves to start doing the complete opposite of what he would do normally. He orders the opposite of his normal lunch, and he introduces himself to a beautiful woman that he normally would never have the nerve to talk to and says, "My name is George. I'm unemployed, and I live with my parents." To his surprise, she is impressed with his honesty and agrees to date him!
I find employing the Costanza method to trading an interesting exercise. Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite. Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.
Employing the Costanza method can identify interesting, non-consensus trade ideas that could kick in alpha.
Last year’s list of the top 10 Costanza trades produced 7 winners:
the privileged benefits of being on the In/side of the Circle:
Shares of Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT, -2.00%) declined in the extended session Thursday while shares of Boeing Co. (BA, +0.70%) advanced following a tweet by President-elect Donald Trump about cost overruns for Lockheed's F-35 fighter. Lockheed shares fell 1.9% to $248 after hours, while Boeing shares rose 0.7% to $158.58. - marketwatch
-U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivers keynote address at the University of Baltimore’s Midyear Commencement on the state of the job market.
usdcad around 1.35 sets the reaction bias to the oil cartel's spoutings
PAR17:15:17 GMT - 11/24/2016
Is Trump going to cut oil production . I dont think so . He said he is not going to import Saudi Oil . But he said so many things which change everyday .
French right calls for François Hollande's impeachment - Financial Times
Mtl JP 13:42:57 GMT - 11/06/2016
a good time to prepare a trade plan to try to skin some posi-pips off the "election" process (currently odds favour the crooked one):
- off polls (open 5-6-7am?)
- off incoming headlines state polls (Fl around 7pm for ex., Nevada much later)
And then just before networks make the call that the crooked one should win:
buy _____ and sell ____
alternately
IF Trump should be declared winner: buy _____ and sell ____
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates on hold when it meets next week, but expectations favor a rate increase when policy makers convene again in December.
“At the present time, it is true that there is an excess of economic capacity. It is clear in the labour market and production. We’ve seen a number of symptoms of this. And the level of the gap is exerting downward pressure on the inflation rates. This is another process that will eventually be eliminated. We hope to eliminate this gap — it will probably take about two years. Around the middle of 2018, we expected this gap will be closed. And it is clear that the interest rates are encouraging growth. But other policies could have the same result, particularly fiscal policy. The two of them work together in order to close this particular gap in the coming 18 months.
“There’s nothing mechanical about it. Each of these decisions is a complex combination of risks. And we have to weigh the risks of waiting longer against what are the costs associated with doing something more immediate.
“We’re not far away … if we were to be easing further, we’d been very close to using unconventional tools. And so, that is of course, not a decision we would take lightly. And when we have the Canadian economy operating on two tracks — one track doing reasonably well, and the certain regions doing quite well, and others adjusting through something quite difficult, it’s not as easy as it sounds to speed up the fast growing parts to offset the slow growing parts. If everything was the same, it would be, in many ways, an easier decision to do that kind of thing.
“So, this is what I mean by the uncertainties. They’re multi-dimensional. We do a fresh adjustment every time and, again, we can’t plan it out that way, but our best plan right now, we think, is to wait for the next 18 months or so.”
Here’s what Poloz meant:
My statement concerning the need to wait 18 months was in reference to the time frame over which the output gap is expected to close, as noted in the bank’s October Monetary Policy Report. It was not intended as a reference to the bank’s monetary policy.
here is STEPHEN S. ROACH accusing "Central bankers desperately want the public to believe that they know what they are doing. Nothing could be further from the truth."
IF that "Central bankers desperately want the public to..." is true , that would be indeed a grave mistake by Central bankers. Obscurity and operations in the shadow and away from "the public" is in their self-preserving interest. Always was , always will.
Mtl JP 14:20:44 GMT - 09/23/2016
Recession risk has grown because Fed didn’t hike, Rosengren says
pre-emptively blaming janet
thks brother for the comical relief
Mtl JP 14:08:26 GMT - 09/19/2016
20 September 2016
OTTAWA – On Tuesday, 20 September 2016, Stephen S. Poloz, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Association des économistes québécois, the Cercle finance du Québec and CFA Québec.
not (yet) on the GV FOREX CALENDAR of potential trade catalysts:
I - or rather my robot - likes us/can yield spread digits to help set a prefered trading bias. Here is a fundy reason why any narrowing of the spread is likely to be supportive of usdcad BoD, credit to Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada (family member of the Cretins):
one of last of uncle Al's parting trade opportunity suggestions
If stagflation is in the future - "On the economic front, the U.S. is headed toward stagflation -- a combination of weak demand and elevated inflation, according to Greenspan." gold is the trade opportunity
It appreciated over 1000% in the stagflation of the 70s
JP, you are the man for BoD usd strategy. Been following your usdcad. Agree with the Fed will keep usd with limited downside eventhough they dont hike. Power of CBers wordings.
Mtl JP 12:07:24 GMT - 09/14/2016
odds are that the FED gang will
- not raise rates in september
- keep players bamboozled with hot/cold blather about december rate hike
Bottom Line
Keeping robot to BoD usd bias
Mtl JP 11:16:51 GMT - 09/14/2016
"monetary policy in Canada remains quite stimulative"
“We have to adapt to the new reality of lower potential growth,” she said. “The faster we do this, the safer the financial system will be.”
dc CB is that a possible achilles heel that might see hillary's quest for president go down the toilet and be a tradeable in that "markets assume Hillary wins. With Trump more uncertainty... implying a trade opportunity if Hillary slips and.a Trump presidency gains traction." ?
dc CB 21:42:48 GMT - 09/07/2016
In early May, we introduced readers to Charles Ortel, a Wall Street analyst who uncovered financial discrepancies at General Electric before its stock crashed in 2008, and whom the Sunday Times of London described as "one of the finest analysts of financial statements on the planet" in a 2009 story detailing the troubles at AIG.
Having moved on beyond simple corporate fraud, Ortel spent the past year and a half digging into something more relevant to the current US situation:"charities", and specifically the Clinton Foundation’s public records, federal and state-level tax filings, and donor disclosures.
new potential Trade off the Cretins upcoming trade idea:
“Today, I’m here to talk to you about three crucial words that should be at the center, always, of our foreign policy,”
“Peace through strength.”
“As soon as I take office, I will ask Congress to fully eliminate the defense sequester and will submit a new budget to rebuild our military,” Trump
time coming to focus on new trade opportunity, this time on
4:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank con: 1.75%
aud sitting tight which is a good thing as it offers better odds to catch a reaction breakout either way
nw kw 05:00:30 GMT - 06/03/2016
last month comment usajpy go's down but not fastly ap 100.00 target /// xaujpy still dropping rest flat. in net change gold pack 3 month av, gl.
GVI Trading Room john 18:14:35 GMT - 06/02/2016
Good work if you can get it! Of course you have to be connected
Mtl JP 17:38:56 GMT - 06/02/2016
john u r just sour grapes that u do not have a cushy job with a steady $10+k/week salary from which u can not be fired right or wrong lol
GVI Trading Room john 17:33:49 GMT - 06/02/2016
Seriously these guys live in an echo chamber. The economy is at full-employment only if you believe their faulty statistics. The economy is at full-employment and it grows at only 0.7% in 1Q16. This makes no sense!
Luckily these guys are not engineers sending astronauts into space.
GVI Trading Room john 17:30:15 GMT - 06/02/2016
Kaplan:
-- Economy close to full employment
-- Fed should raise rates gradually
-- Cost for keeping rates thus low
-- 1Q growth disappointing
Mtl JP 16:38:04 GMT - 06/02/2016
non-voter Kaplan yaks at top of hour
he is on record for wanting a rate hike in June or July
-
l8tr in aft yaks non-voting dove Evans
Mtl JP 09:02:08 GMT - 06/01/2016
according to OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría:
“Growth is flat in the advanced economies and has slowed in many of the emerging economies that have been the global locomotive since the crisis,” ... “Slower productivity growth and rising inequality pose further challenges. Comprehensive policy action is urgently needed to ensure that we get off this disappointing growth path and propel our economies to levels that will safeguard living standards for all,”
--
United States is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017.
The euro area will improve slowly, with growth of 1.6% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017.
In Japan, growth is projected at 0.7% in 2016 and 0.4% in 2017.
The 34-country OECD area is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017
in China, growth is expected to continue to drift lower to 6.5% in 2016 and 6.2% in 2017, supported by demand stimulus.
India’s growth rates are expected to hover near 7.5% this year and next
The deep recessions in Russia and Brazil will persist, with Brazil expected to contract by 4.3% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017.
lot looking for 1400 gold end year or support long for September in works /
Mtl JP 12:48:34 GMT - 05/30/2016
Gold circa 1200
-
pretending janet hikes rate:
after that Gold should be BoD
d u c it differently ?
Mtl JP 12:20:15 GMT - 05/30/2016
more smoke signals painting yellen into a corner ?
-
Fed's Bullard says global markets seem well-prepared for summer rate hike - Reuters
"My sense is that markets are well-prepared for a possible rate increase globally, and that ...
That Rate Rise Is Coming: Fed's Bullard Says Everyone Seems Prepared - Forbes
Fed's Bullard: Markets 'well-prepared' for summer rate hike - Seeking Alpha
--
The So-What Bottom Line
current bias should favor BoD usd
kl shawn 05:31:08 GMT - 05/30/2016
1195 today?
kl shawn 10:37 GMT May 25, 2016
Trade Off The Cretins Corner: Reply
gold is very very scared of the Fed it seems
LOL
Kl Shawn 16:52 GMT May 24, 2016
Gold: Reply
Mammamia gold is saying Fed will hike
kl shawn 08:05 GMT May 24, 2016
Tuesday Trading: Reply
kw, do you see gold heading to 1195?
nw kw 18:01:31 GMT - 05/25/2016
aud/cad helps for flow.
nw kw 17:59:41 GMT - 05/25/2016
cad moves lag aud, day or so, /// cad still get going usd is place to go.
Mtl JP 17:17:55 GMT - 05/25/2016
usdcad may re-visit 1.3068
keep an eye to see if closes under but still think it is BoD
just need to be lithe and picki
Mtl JP 14:47:58 GMT - 05/25/2016
1.3102
put an sl+1 , x-fingers and wake me up if/when it hits 1.33
Mtl JP 14:39:32 GMT - 05/25/2016
new long usdcad 1.3080
Mtl JP 14:05:28 GMT - 05/25/2016
current usdcad saying to the Fed gang: bring 'em on those rate hikes.
waiting for return to and above 1.3080 to add long
Mtl JP 13:49:51 GMT - 05/25/2016
cretin alert - top of hour
account risk "A" CA BOC Rates 0.50% 0.50%
nw kw 13:45:17 GMT - 05/25/2016
pin head g7, chfjpy saved from free fall.
nw kw 13:42:39 GMT - 05/25/2016
charts look risk in aud.gl.
nw kw 13:14:32 GMT - 05/25/2016
Brexit poll bad timing with oil changes but gbpaud looks thin poss no sellers, cad had big swing from oil.
Mtl JP 12:58:47 GMT - 05/25/2016
cretin alert: 9:00am
theme: talk is cheap (and will be plentiful today, as 2 more)
Mtl JP 10:56:10 GMT - 05/25/2016
I need to correct the no Fed yakkers:
Wednesday
Harker, Kashkari, Kaplan in that time order
Mtl JP 10:42:08 GMT - 05/25/2016
scared or bargain if Janet bitch-slaps her 2-3-4 hike peddlers back to reality
Wednesday:
no Fed yakkers on the roster
kl shawn 10:37:18 GMT - 05/25/2016
gold is very very scared of the Fed it seems
LOL
Mtl JP 10:32:12 GMT - 05/25/2016
chose your trade
Yellen's gang
- raises rates,
- preps players for July hike
- kicks off hike into the future
---------------------------------
it may be noteworthy that this weeks SnP climb is on some very low volumes - i.e low player comittement
HK HK 00:58:23 GMT - 05/23/2016
Risk off start to the week, Nikkei down
Mtl JP 23:59:19 GMT - 05/22/2016
there will be more of them this week:
Monday
Williams, Bullard, Harker
Wednesday
Kashkari, Kaplan, Harker
Thurday
Bullard, Powell
Friday
Yellen & Bernanke together
Mtl JP 23:42:32 GMT - 05/22/2016
"I think, yes, we have enough ammunition," Kuroda said, when asked whether the BOJ had sufficient monetary policy options, or "ammunition," left to achieve the target. "If necessary, we can further ease our monetary conditions in three dimensions. Quantitative, qualitative and interest rates." - via cnbc
like lemmings they march out of their den and sing the same song:
“I want to be sensitive to how the data comes in, but I would say that most of the conditions that were laid out in the minutes, as of right now, seem to be . . . on the verge of broadly being met,” said Mr Rosengren
IF the dollar gets a bit too enthusiastic too rapidly on the recent past cretins' smoke signals and the minutes Janet can use Brexit "threat" as excuse in her upcoming yikyak to try to tame it
Mtl JP 20:05:35 GMT - 05/15/2016
Fed's Williams sees good outlook, 2-3 rate hikes this year
With the U.S. economic outlook "definitely looking good," the U.S. central bank is on the cusp of deciding whether to raise rates at any of its next few meetings, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Friday.
re "Canadian G7 official
- forex will not be a dominant issue at upcoming G&"
-
good thing the Canadian G7 official was not named... else would be a public donkey's donkyhole as Jacob sees thing differently:
U.S. Treasury Secretary says G-7 nations need to reiterate commitments against exchange-rate devaluations
"Weak returns are the result of cyclical, not structural, factors"
-
a genius observation: "“People have now woken up and say they don’t want to pay 2-and-20 to underperform some index,” said billionaire hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman, founder of Omega Advisors...
duh ! I give you a million bux, and u charge me minimum 20 thousand to loose money for me and you whine about it ?!
Maybe I have news for you donkeyhole: for the past 15years I have all my friends and colleagues out of mutual funds trading with discount broker. costs $9 per trade and if the account looses money it does it so without your 2% fee.
What is so difficult to understand that charging 2% fee on a looser account is not justifiable by saying "because that is how we charge and that is how it is" .
I could like Roslyn Zhang, a managing director of China’s sovereign wealth fund blasted what she called a “herd mentality” among hedge-fund investors. Including the genouflecting incitement to "Do not Fight The FED" on this forum - which is still not as bad as what the red chinese communists stoop to as they try to protec their stocks bubble from imploding
voter Rosengren: the likelihood of Fed rate hikes is higher than market pricing;
voter George: U.S. rates are too low for today’s economic conditions;
voter Mester: U.S. inflation has moved higher as oil prices and the USD stabilize;
voter Yellen: the Fed will adjust policy if outlook changes unexpectedly; added that she expects continued U.S. economic strength
-
read that again: continued U.S. economic strength
Mtl JP 09:50:01 GMT - 05/13/2016
new trade suggestions to get try to get filthy rich
compliments of
im to oil at this game to brag but for jp- he's going to get it .
next
nw kw 10:44:34 GMT - 05/12/2016
jp- you see a trade plan, luts go man your slipping.
nw kw 10:43:11 GMT - 05/12/2016
jp- ill run hands free gust to give it to you as you requested / not
nw kw 10:40:54 GMT - 05/12/2016
jp- tks for supporting inpoted oil to run your suv. good luck seeing a return of your investment . jp- your the fish now.
nw kw 10:37:59 GMT - 05/12/2016
jp- you have sods oil in your back yard and your PM. played to keep stinky out for MTL. is sodey lover, barn them out of cad.
nw kw 07:50:24 GMT - 05/12/2016
chfjpy breakouts top side. gl.
Mtl JP 22:57:10 GMT - 05/11/2016
I am wondering if "Trade With The Cretins Corner" would yield better trading ideas 'n results.
Yung, 29, holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Notre Dame and has authored multiple working papers on the subject of interest rates and their corresponding term structure. The research she conducts for the Dallas Fed is done independently of Fed policy makers and is intended to inform discussion among officers.
jpy report exporters funding flexible so interest rates are smoke screen for nuts and bolts of internal funding so id not take them to as set in stone as market internal deals are different than they like us to believe?
Mtl JP 19:32:25 GMT - 05/03/2016
now that Poloz seems to have come to the learned conclusion that nega-rates do not work (I assume he means in a desired way, not that they do not work at all) here is a chart from BoA - "Bonds with yields below zero—a situation in which bondholders effectively pay borrowers to take their money—now account for 23% of the global fixed-income market, up from 13% at the beginning of the year" - that makes me think what would happen if the theme of negarates are good should reverse.
nw kw 19:31:22 GMT - 05/03/2016
usacad at 1.35 is oil range id play for has old school trade with out cad' big exporter over seas struggling.
nw kw 19:12:49 GMT - 05/03/2016
eurusa range end up tag 120, 115 support in summer.
nw kw 19:10:25 GMT - 05/03/2016
eurusa was at 105 and jpy hade to forced to change, so if is 120.00 eurusa i'l understand?
nw kw 18:49:59 GMT - 05/03/2016
gold pack has cad separated and staying on mission in market of rebalancing; for nfp kayos?
nw kw 18:43:39 GMT - 05/03/2016
wind -was bank jpy at 105 but not defending, plan forecasted slow decent. some se implications of 105. usa/jpy for market in all terms?
Mtl JP 17:36:56 GMT - 05/03/2016
even as he seems to claim to have learned the lesson about nega-rates that they do not work.
cretin... didnt have to wait 6+ months had he asked me
Mtl JP 17:26:58 GMT - 05/03/2016
As much as I anticipated a potential A grade A effect so far players unimpressed with anything coming out of Poloz
Mtl JP 16:16:42 GMT - 05/03/2016
Cretin Alert
-------------
It is unlikely that this cretin is going to agree that monetary policy is out of ammo.
It gets BETTER:
AMELIA ISLAND, Fla. The United States could see two further interest rate rises this year but uncertainties abound including the impact on the U.S. economy should Britain vote to leave the European Union, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Tuesday.
-
IF I understand English - 3 total in 2016.
Not sure if players understand English same way as I do,
see what Gold priceaction / dlrx says about it
Mtl JP 14:43:48 GMT - 05/03/2016
Lockhart: Two rate hikes this year 'certainly possible', flags Brexit risk
Mtl JP 12:17:06 GMT - 05/03/2016
nh note that chief BoC cretin yaks today 1/2 past noon
something on "policy"
Livingston nh 11:36:49 GMT - 05/03/2016
jp - good heads up on that rate cut -- if you would mention same strategy to Poloz next time you see him it would be helpful, too
Mtl JP 05:22:58 GMT - 05/03/2016
nh - feels good to profit, hope u r feeling the glow too
houston mw 17:41:33 GMT - 05/02/2016
JM, the RBA was actually called out a few weeks ago by the Treasury for attempting to talk down the currency.
RBA's Stevens Rebuffs U.S. Treasury on Aussie Jawboning ...
www.bloomberg.com/.../rba-s-stevens-rebuffs-u-s-treasu...
Mtl JP 16:38:34 GMT - 05/02/2016
JM 16:17 got to put coin in the slot and pull the handle if you want to hear the fat one sing.
-
numbnuts blathers and market moves all of 9 pips. haha
numbnuts will have to co-ordinate with other CBs and bring a serious mountain of fiat to downgrade his stupid yen.
What do you think he ll need to blow to see a minimum
300pip
500pip
700+ dump ?
NY JM 16:17:44 GMT - 05/02/2016
The only thing you can count on is the RBA talking down its currency. Whether the AUD reacts is another story.
Livingston nh 15:44:47 GMT - 05/02/2016
JP - I was just hoping for a "dovish" promise -- watch retails sales
Mtl JP 15:41:19 GMT - 05/02/2016
7635
Livingston nh u setting up for RBA ?
consensus says stays pat, gv risk to account category A
I am betting it cuts
Board member:Mario Draghi
Event:Keynote speech by the President in at seminar "The future of financial markets: A changing view of Asia" during 49th annual meeting of Asian Development Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
Time:16:00 CET (Top of the hour)
Text:The text will be made available on the ECB's website
Mtl JP 08:20:54 GMT - 04/29/2016
Cretin Alert:
"We too have resorted to unconventional methods and, as in the past, we will not shy away from using these methods if it is in the interests of the country as a whole,"
The franc is weaker than immediately after the cap was lifted but remains "significantly overvalued", Jordan
Andrew Ross Sorkin, financial columnist for The New York Times, founder and editor at large of DealBook and co-anchor of CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
President Obama Weighs His Economic Legacy
Eight years after the financial crisis, unemployment is at 5 percent, deficits are down and G.D.P. is growing. Why do so many voters feel left behind? The president has a theory.
similar to the genuflecting call to "Do Not Fight the Fed" instead of showing the the Central Bankers for their incompetence and corruption William Watts - MarketWatch's deputy markets editor, claims that BoJ makes you feel sorry for impotent central bankers. Instead of calling for numbnuts crushing party , he is calling for
BoC Poloz' text of speech released in 2 minutes; yak in 15
Singapore SGFXTrader 14:16:51 GMT - 04/21/2016
Correct answer seems to be 3.
Trade Off The Cretins Corner
Singapore SGFXTrader 11:10 GMT 04/21/2016
JP, what is your forecast for the Eurusd movement?
1. Dip first and then follow by more dips?
2. Dip first and then follow by a rise
3. Rise first and then follow by a dip
4. Rise first and then follow by more rise
Which one is your forecasted move?
Mtl JP 13:05:04 GMT - 04/21/2016
cretin is on verge of achieving a new milestone:
breaking historical tradition of lower EUR post ECB announcement
london red 12:45:13 GMT - 04/21/2016
draghi would not only do helicopter money but would stretch to giving everyone a helicopter to go with the money, but while black stuff firmer, rest of ecb will not let him loose. so yak is all he has.
Mtl JP 12:42:24 GMT - 04/21/2016
cretin pulling a "ben" (not in my lifetime) about low/er interest rates
feeble attempt though as cretin probably needs to pull-out a additional new, improved bigger bazooka to get players on-side
Livingston nh 12:41:25 GMT - 04/21/2016
Maybe today is Draghi's Yellen moment - watch how he looks whenever he tries to "explain" - grimly resolved that there is nothing more to do?
Mtl JP 12:24:11 GMT - 04/21/2016
players already belly-aching and bending over in anticipation of mario's bloviation: "c'mon cretin .... try talking the EUR lower"...
Now... cretins can be unpredictable, sometimes to the point of being evil trying to draw satisfaction and pleasure from being vindictive to players.
That could happen if cretin says something un-expected by players, like some contra-comment about current policy stance or tactics.
Unless he says something earth-shattering, do not expect trading influnce residue to last more than 30 minutes after he evacuates the room.
Currently I am only considering gv's Pivot pricepoint, and only to the downside.
prague viktor 11:43:34 GMT - 04/21/2016
number 2
Perth Wtr 11:39:51 GMT - 04/21/2016
I think euro will go up. Do not short.
Mtl JP 11:37:33 GMT - 04/21/2016
euro gv chartpoint:
Pivot 1.1326
Mtl JP 11:19:49 GMT - 04/21/2016
I am happy to sit on my current short euro,
wait for the cretin to come under the spotlight to publicly spew his shameless but embarassing promises of what he will do if this or that happens or not.
I restrict my trading robot to "short" only in case there is a pricing nega-reaction to try to catch it.
Otherwise wait and lurk for new Trade off the Cretin opportunity should euro rally some while under 1.1450.
Singapore SGFXTrader 11:10:08 GMT - 04/21/2016
JP, what is your forecast for the Eurusd movement?
1. Dip first and then follow by more dips?
2. Dip first and then follow by a rise
3. Rise first and then follow by a dip
4. Rise first and then follow by more rise
Which one is your forecasted move?
Mtl JP 10:59:55 GMT - 04/21/2016
Less than One hour left to "Cretin Time" to shine
euro hovering around 1.131-ish
Draghi's ECB announces its rate decision at 11:45gmt (7:45 a.m. NYT)
Cretin Mario hold his "news" conference 8:30 a.m. NYT
Mtl JP 13:28:55 GMT - 04/17/2016
To collect the benefit of cretins' negarate it took "a ruling announced on Monday, the Netherlands’ consumer financial products watchdog, Kifid, said it had sided with the unnamed holders of the variable interest rate mortgage, who brought the case, rather than with lender Achmea NV.
Writing in Business Spectator last week, commentator Alan Kohler warned that negative interest rate policies (NIRPs) were “beginning to look counter-productive”
Vive les cretins ! Vive les cretins !!
(full piece on POL for posterity)
******************************
Negative Rates Around the World: How One Danish Couple Gets Paid Interest on Their Mortgage - WSJ April 14, 2016 10:14 a.m. ET
AALBORG, Denmark— Hans Peter Christensen got some unusual news when he opened his most recent mortgage statement. His quarterly interest payment was negative 249 Danish kroner.
“My parents said I should frame it, to prove to coming generations that this ever happened,” said Mr. Christensen, a 35-year-old financial consultant, about his bank statement.
Claimed earlier today Draghi:
...ECB adopted an accommodative monetary policy stance without precedent (check) and
the ECB has and will continue to do whatever is needed to comply with its mandate. (lets say it is so).
We have solid evidence that the monetary policy measures that we have taken since mid-2014 are being effective in delivering their intended impact. (laying out some bullsh!t; crowd laughs)
.... .. ....
The improved funding conditions for both firms and households are supporting the current recovery, facilitating job creation and affecting the inflation outlook.
--
and so the euro, one and half hours after the cretin's self-accolading assertions, pops from 1.1330-ish to 1.1390-ish
stronger euro runs counter to his desire to screw savers by making imports more expensive (via that famous 2% inflation as stable prices propaganda line)
Hoarding cash is potentially fraught with loosing it all.
There is chance that the Jan 1 1960 Franc Nouveau / Franc Ancien history will repeat itself. (whereby hundred old ones were exchanged for 1 new one and eventually the old ones were made illegal/worthless)
Negative Rates Lesson
-
Lot CB leadership and its gang of PhDs claim they are closely watching Negative Interest Rate (NIR) for beneficial effect.
Initial lesson from Japan appears to be that post-introduction of NIR yen strength runs un-abated against the stated objective of weakening it.
One could speculate on the reasons why that is, the full forensic report is not yet in but initial suspicion is probably that fear (in polite circles it is called expectations) of crashing profit margins at financial institutions trump expectation of positive effects of NIR in the larger economy. (that is if one accepts that trying to raise retail price - that famous 2% price-inflation goal of arresting deflationary phenomenon - is a good thing)
One could hypothesise that it is this fear that drives the plunge not only in bank stocks but in Nikkei as well as players turn risk averse.
Bottom Line
NIR in Japan fuels yen strength
Thanks to the collective of numbnuts (Abe, Asakawa and Kuroda) mis-judging player psychology of expectations and their reaction to NIR is making the yen currently a "safe asset".
Managing expectations and maintaining credibility.
THE absolute must requirement skills for all peddlers of fiat.
Manila Tom 13:20:36 GMT - 04/04/2016
Looks like euro will stay above 1.10 for the reminder of this year
Livingston nh 12:53:26 GMT - 04/04/2016
And again it's Spring in EU so the Greek debt issue is blooming (see IMF) but with a refugee import-export kicker -
s/t rates are popping higher - re: the debt issue ?"“It’s going to be an ongoing theme over the next few months,” said Orlando Green, a rates strategist at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit in London. “It shouldn’t really have an impact on the broader market. Any noise out of Greece will be localized.”
Yellen is due to take part in a discussion with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke on Thursday - RTRS
Mtl JP 01:01:35 GMT - 03/29/2016
a burst of verbal diarrhea shower coming this week:
Williams,
Yellen,
Kaplan,
Evans,
Dudley,
Mester
Mtl JP 20:03:50 GMT - 03/20/2016
Praet: ECB 'hasn't reached lower bound' on rates
Financial Times - 2 days ago
vs
Chief Executive Officer Nikolaus von Bomhard
Munich Re .. will store at least 10 million euros ($11 million) in two currencies so it won’t have to pay for the right to access the money at short notice, Chief Executive Officer Nikolaus von Bomhard said at a press conference in Munich on Wednesday. “We will also observe what others are doing to avoid paying negative interest rates,” he said.
“This may well become a mass phenomenon once interest rates are low enough -- the only question will be where that exact point is,” said Christoph Kaserer, a professor of finance at the Technische Universitaet in Munich. “For large institutions, that may be the case sooner rather than later. The ECB will react with countermeasures, such as limiting cash.”
Ideally, the ECB might hope that euro zone banks would take advantage of periods of market calm to strengthen their balance sheets. The problem is that the full extent of banks’ balance sheet weakness has never been objectively assessed. The ECB’s stress tests appear to have been designed to judge banks’ resilience to threats they had already addressed rather than those that might arise in future. The challenge might more easily be met if the banks were operating in a static environment. However, prolonged below-trend economic activity is likely resulting in progressive deterioration in the quality of the assets the banks are holding. Yet, even with the ECB as the single regulator of the euro zone’s larger lending institutions, there would be serious political difficulties in the central bank’s tackling systemic frailties in determined fashion. With the political structure of the EU under stress as never before, the odds are against the ECB defusing the bad debt bomb.
Mtl JP 14:01:07 GMT - 03/19/2016
Extremely High un-intended Consequences Risk of NEGATIVE RATES
First safety boxes became popular in Japan in reaction to numbnuts' negarates
Here is an idea, one hopes, that must be crossing the minds of Kuroda's co-cretins:
IF ... banks start to run short of cash coz folks start to ask en masse for their electronic deposits in cash withdrawals ...
HOW CLOSE IS THE FRACTIONAL BANKING SYSTEM TO A COLLAPSE ?
- Is it one, two ..___ more rate cuts deeper into nega-territory ?
------------------------------
Reuters - DUESSELDORF, GERMANY, MARCH 17
The European Central Bank's negative interest rates are sparking demand for safe deposit boxes, where bank customers can store cash to avoid the prospect of paying the bank interest on their accounts, German bankers said.
"Lockboxes are in vogue,"
"Demand for customer deposit boxes is continuously growing,"
“If we had not had those negative rates, we would be in a much worse place today, with inflation probably lower than where it is, with growth probably lower than where we have it,” Lagarde said. “It was a good thing to actually implement those negative rates under the current circumstances.”
-
Headline says "Have Helped"
The IMF cretin knows all too well that a negative can not be proven.
Dudley = 0 effect
grade: D
-
Rosengren in 2 hrs next
Mtl JP 12:56:39 GMT - 03/18/2016
Dudley yaks at the top of the hour
he is a "go-along" voter
Mtl JP 12:23:22 GMT - 03/18/2016
ECB’s Praet Says Further Rate Reduction Remains a Possibility - in wsj
Rate reduction remains in ‘armory’ in case of further negative shocks to outlook
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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