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hillegom  purk  14:10:38 GMT - 03/29/2016  
Right. 11213 half closed at 11201 other half 11222 out at 11202. Other half 11213 is at cost.


GVI Forex john bland  13:23:15 GMT - 03/29/2016  
FF Futures PRICES up a touch from yesterday which means the markets have slightly REDUCED the odds of the one Fed rate hike by yearend from yesterday. Now about 92% from about 94% yesterday.

Prices suggest traders are not expecting hawkish comments from Yellen just after midday in NYC.


Hillegom Purk  13:05:15 GMT - 03/29/2016  
Tuesday Trading
Hillegom Purk 12:44 GMT 03/29/2016 - My Profile
START short 1,1213 e/u. will add 1,1222,11233,11244 maybe more. start with mult entries so i can scale.
______________________________
11222 = 3/4 out at 1,1211. rest at 11220 and will take it again at 11223.


Hillegom Purk  12:44:52 GMT - 03/29/2016  
START short 1,1213 e/u. will add 1,1222,11233,11244 maybe more. start with mult entries so i can scale.


GVI Forex john bland  12:30:30 GMT - 03/29/2016  
My personal opinion about Yellen today..

I would put the odds at 90% that Yellen will repeat that rate rises will be "gradual" with no specifics. She should say that every meeting is "live" without losing flexibility. Her goal will be not to get pinned down to any future policy path.

She will NOT back away from her comments made less that two weeks ago. I see nothing positive for the USD in this.


Livingston nh  12:20:02 GMT - 03/29/2016  
WTI rising 21 dma is a couple of pennies under $38 - still at lower levels than last Spring so a break of 38 could see a fast test of 55 ema ~36 // commodity rally in general may be fading

The effect on CAD and AUD??


Mtl JP  12:14:23 GMT - 03/29/2016  
favor selling euro against 1.1225-ish for 1.1170 maybe lower


GVI Forex john bland  12:13:21 GMT - 03/29/2016  
wti $38.60 -0.79 ($39.46-38.53)


Livingston nh  11:59:57 GMT - 03/29/2016  
There is always the hope that Yellen is starting to implode - she shied away from Jackson Hole, she gave a Wikipedia presentation on inflation and NOW in front of her peers she is going to attempt a monetary policy explanation for her (and fellow FOMC mopes) last public performance

I repeat "Fed policy is being made up as they move along" -- There is no plan B - Yellen's pet theory like most economic theory only works sometimes (and even then may have causality problems) SO she is stumbling along

Her pay grade is well above her competence to task level --
maybe today the curtain gets pulled back

*end of rant


GVI Forex john bland  11:17:34 GMT - 03/29/2016  
Themes --
  • We have declared a "Financial Tsunami Watch" for Fed Chair Yellen's speech today on the U.S. economy. Yellen and the ECB's Draghi have become the greatest source of forex instability as they send inconsistent signals about the future course of their policies. I am not predicting a strong market reaction to her comments, but there is always a risk of such a response whenever she appears due to conflicting messages.
  • Global markets have finally returned from their Easter break. The Yellen speech and Conference Board Consumer Sentiment are the highlights today.
  • The second half of this week sees a number data releases from the U.S., including the key monthly employment report. Australia and New Zealand "fall back" next weekend.
DAX -22
DJ -63
SP -7

10-yr
US 1.863% -2.3
DE 0.146 -3.0
JP -0.081% +0.6
GB 1.388% -4.7


wti $38.85 -0.85

EUR mixed to higher on its crosses. Steady vs. GBP and lower vs. NZD.


GVI Forex john bland  19:43:05 GMT - 03/28/2016  
March 29 Speech - Chair Janet L. Yellen
Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
At the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York 12:20 p.m. ET


Source: U.S. FRB






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