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Paris ib  13:18:22 GMT - 04/01/2016  
"Britain’s current account deficit is the worst ever recorded in peace-time since the Bank of England started collecting records in 1772 under the reign of George III.

Even during the grimmest moments of the First World War it only slightly exceeded the eye-watering figure of 7pc of GDP racked up in the fourth quarter of last year. No other country in the OECD club is close to this....

Lena Komileva from G+Economics said the current account deficit is now so large that it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks, amplifying the potential impact of Brexit. Britain’s credit-driven consumer credit is “plainly unsustainable”."

Seems the market is only just waking up to the situation. Which is a bit weird, but hey that's how markets work.

Bit of joy from Ambrose



Paris ib  13:13:18 GMT - 04/01/2016  
EUR/GBP through 80.00 - as expected. Significant upside from here will depend on overall Euro performance and the song and dance around Brexit. Still the UK situation is precarious at present and the GBP will continue to see selling medium term (which in my book is till June or so).


Paris ib  09:27:13 GMT - 04/01/2016  
JP - ok so read GBP at risk of devaluation. Same difference.


Mtl JP  09:13:24 GMT - 04/01/2016  
serious trouble shmable
think of it as trading opportunity with two sided risk:
- getting filthy rich opp OR
- getting plucked


Paris ib  08:57:16 GMT - 04/01/2016  
Don't know why you think a current account deficit is a red herring. Running a large - or in this case record - current account deficit is usually a precursor to a sharp currency adjustment. That is: a sharp devaluation. At the very least it leaves the country in question vulnerable to any loss of confidence by foreign investors. In the case of the UK the BREXIT issue is the catalyst for the change in risk perception. If they stay we could have a GBP recovery but we are some way away from knowing how the vote will go.


Mtl JP  18:23:08 GMT - 03/31/2016  
re "answer is in things economic "MAYBE" "
-
The current crop of policy influencing economic PhD's doggedly subscribes to the notion that deflation is a nemesis to economic growth and that inflation od 2% is its panacea.

That doctrine is based on the theory that folks will delay their purchase IF they expect that same item will be offer-priced lower tomorrow and the day after that and so on thus delaying demand and therefore the manufacturing cranking out speed of gadgets. That the PhD's call risk and danger to prospects of economic growth.

It is a flawed assumption about humans' frugality and greed characteristics driving purchasing decisions.

It is no less flawed than their "out of the hat" peddled theory of 2% price inflation being the appropriate medecine (not to say drug) influencing folks purchasing decisions and driver for economic growth activity.

It is all the more a contemporary social phenomenon manifestation of unchallenged group think of these PhD's driving economies towards a cliff. This will probably go on for a while yet.



nw kw  18:02:38 GMT - 03/31/2016  
me to so short usa gold 1232


nw kw  17:31:52 GMT - 03/31/2016  
reversed off support no free fall so long xaugbp for xaueur was on cliff support so see if usa gold fly up.


Livingston nh  17:06:24 GMT - 03/31/2016  
I'll try not to get too wonky here but the rise in the EUR/GBP means MPC can hike any time because the lvel is above 0.75 - now the chance of a rate hike before Brexit is ZERO but the higher level of EUR/GBP before or after vote means they can - now the current account issue is a red herring because UK runs a deficit w/EU (and the trade zone scrip countries AKA EUR) - a hike would reduce the current account deficit (which is a usually meaningless stat) and allow the BoE to release its balance sheet by putting it QE holdings (LT) back into the market, theoretically widening the yield curve

I know -- eeekk!! higher rates will tank the economy -- and the answer is as always in things economic "MAYBE"


nw kw  16:43:22 GMT - 03/31/2016  
added, gl


nw kw  16:40:49 GMT - 03/31/2016  
pull gbp strength short xaugbp in 5m chart need get it going. gl


Paris ib  16:12:01 GMT - 03/31/2016  
Britons raid savings to fund spending as economists warn recovery 'built on sand'.... and the GBP also.

Ugly Picture in the UK



Paris ib  16:08:26 GMT - 03/31/2016  
Current Account at a record and consumers using savings to keep their lifestyles going.

EUR/GDP at 80.00 is likely.

What happened to the UK?






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