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Israel Dil  15:21:54 GMT - 04/01/2016  
JP

kudos shmudos... out of any shorts now, Sunday night is the next to start ahorts if at all ;-)


nw kw  15:08:36 GMT - 04/01/2016  
at best aud has no QE so driven from eur carry trade


london red  15:07:36 GMT - 04/01/2016  
bounced again near 43 but no lower low this time. so the high at 67 becomes the pivot. if broken a lot lose interest on further downside and creeps higher. need the lower low to convince of more but this 43 level was in folks plans to go long after a better print. that didnt materialise as data mixed but still saw good biz and bounced once got dwn there so if cant move lower its sideways to higher. a lot gone home i feel.


nw kw  15:03:05 GMT - 04/01/2016  
gbpaud driving can help but I cant see gbp


Belgrade Knez  15:02:41 GMT - 04/01/2016  

london red 14:16 GMT 04/01/2016
keep this bounce to 65 no more and lower again. bit of a tail but lot of work to do for upside


you are the man!



london red  15:00:22 GMT - 04/01/2016  
a lot of the majors look ready to retrace a bit. monthly/quarterly candles suggest some backfill in many cases. its not be all end all but discount at your peril.


nw kw  14:59:03 GMT - 04/01/2016  
AUD/USD has structural change in weekly aud/jpy, resitance down trend line from 102.0 top so look at all jpy charts and gold changed but, bloom china all in fore growth instead devalue. gl.


Livingston nh  14:51:12 GMT - 04/01/2016  
Despite good PMI data AUD/USD looks like it could test the 21 dma -- 4 hr chart looks dodgier but also suggests a 0.755 test


dc CB  14:48:36 GMT - 04/01/2016  
I think the operative today is April Fools...to all who sold Stox and bought Treas. on the NFP number.

Because based on yest close, neither set has moved very far.


Mtl JP  14:44:36 GMT - 04/01/2016  
 
eurusd snp cross-corr
sometimes it works others not


Livingston nh  14:42:09 GMT - 04/01/2016  
ISM has had bigger impact on treasurys and stox than NFP -
SPX has filled the opening gap

See if Mester adds a little drama to the Opening Day of Q2


Mtl JP  14:37:46 GMT - 04/01/2016  
nh IF I may humbly suggest cure for trigger-itis is to not over-think/analyse reasons for (not) taking on a trade. Leave analysis to economists and would be socialist do-gooders.




Livingston nh  14:25:08 GMT - 04/01/2016  
thanx JP but my recent USD/CAD was blown up at 1.2940 stop and haven't chased it again because it would have felt like the forbidden revenge trade - timing is everything


Mtl JP  14:15:05 GMT - 04/01/2016  
nh / (not on GV Calendar) two BoC releases coming out at bottom of hour that could affect your cad possies:
- Business Outlook Future Sales
- Senior Loan Officer Survey
--
At noon NYT voting hawk Mester yaks on "policy outlook"
---
Dil 13:26 // Kudos already brother even IF euro don't see sub 1.13


Belgrade Knez  14:00:25 GMT - 04/01/2016  

No Jay, I haven't.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:59:29 GMT - 04/01/2016  
Knez, di you ever see my video on using crosses...?


Belgrade Knez  13:56:18 GMT - 04/01/2016  

london red

thank you for your always valuable view

I am trying to understand when EURGBP moves which pair is going to follow it moves ... would that be EURUSD or GBPUSD .... but can't figure it out.



london red  13:52:17 GMT - 04/01/2016  
i usually look for 1/5/15 candle reversal. pull up 1min candle have a look at reversal at quarter to hour. my stop is usually abv last high in this case the 11412/13 as abv there takes out hod prob, certainly 35 test. for now edging lower but eurgbp not playing ball. really the duble t needs to play out intraday as dwnside poss but tough without that. you get more pips if eurgbp plays nice.


Belgrade Knez  13:47:09 GMT - 04/01/2016  

london red

as per your statement below, what would you consider fail of 11390-114? .... would that be just few pips above 114 level or candle closing on specific time frame or ..... ? please share your valuable view

Thank you.



london red 13:38 GMT 04/01/2016
well this current rebound needs to fail 11390-114 for new low. pivot for higher is 11412. abv there lower unlikely rather 11435 test.


london red  13:45:43 GMT - 04/01/2016  
euro rollova chance here


london red  13:40:03 GMT - 04/01/2016  
usdjpy working higher. not too bad performnace given risk off a fair bit. as lng as risk doesnt fall off further 11180 will be avoided and rather 11230 test.


london red  13:38:41 GMT - 04/01/2016  
well this current rebound needs to fail 11390-114 for new low. pivot for higher is 11412. abv there lower unlikely rather 11435 test.


Israel Dil  13:26:44 GMT - 04/01/2016  
red

see euro printing sub 1.13 today from where I am, let's see if it's a place with a limited view ;-)


london red  13:18:13 GMT - 04/01/2016  
euro failed old res 11410. low side 1385. either side of that gives next spike. 11435 or 11365/43


london red  13:17:29 GMT - 04/01/2016  
dont know CB. its up 15% right? this report is close to road of normalisation. so argues weaker gold. if you believe rates up this year gold wont be 15% up end of year.


dc CB  13:15:17 GMT - 04/01/2016  
re Gold...you don't take profits by throwing 20K contracts into the market in a 15 min time slot. and then throw another 20 in the next 15 mins.

that's 4 million Oz of Gold


london red  13:14:40 GMT - 04/01/2016  
watch eurgbp 8019 lt fib just rejected once. if under 80/7985 can retrace. a lot. a brk of fib shud mean euro abv 11440 while eurgbp 8050.


Britain HU  13:12:49 GMT - 04/01/2016  
Is there news on sterling or is it brexit jitters?


london red  13:05:20 GMT - 04/01/2016  
gold was one of best gainers this yr. maybe this months report was last chance for a dud (march sometimes is) so profits taken as now less risk of job pullback and so a june hike on cards maybe.


dc CB  13:01:44 GMT - 04/01/2016  
Massive volume in COMEX Gold. over 40K contracts in the last half hour.


dc CB  12:22:46 GMT - 04/01/2016  
NYSE Arca Equities Trading Suspension in Multiple Symbols
07:58 am, 04/01/2016

Market
NYSE ARCA EQUITIES

Due to a technical issue, trading in the following symbols will be suspended for the balance of the trading day, today.

Amazon.com (AMZN)
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)
Alphabet, Inc. Class C (GOOG)
Alphabet, Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Markel Corp Common (MKL)
M&T Bank Corp Fixed Rate Cum Series A (MTB-)
M&T Bank Corp Fixed Rate Cum Series C (MTB-C)

All orders have been cancelled back to customers.


dc CB  12:20:46 GMT - 04/01/2016  
nh, they can say anything they want, it creates market volit., but when the time comes to Vote on FOMC day they all vote Not to Raise rates.

As far as the NFP number goes, history does not include one of the most bizzaro Pres Elections in US history. One party totally wacked out and the other with a front runner who "could" be indicted for treason.

Add to that: April Fools Day.

and the 10y Opens at 1.778%


Livingston nh  12:13:22 GMT - 04/01/2016  
JP - in good times dissent is harmless and can be ignored -- G. William Miller is the classic Palace Revolt victim but that took political will and a Promotion Out // I don't think it's good cop, bad cop -- the Fed Presidents have different constituents and Yellen is in uncharted territory

BUt first we see if Mester drinks the Kool-aid


Mtl JP  12:05:32 GMT - 04/01/2016  
nh 11:44 the tone of disagreement, if any, becomes important
-
Is the dove/hawk thing a real manifestation of a) democratic FED OR
is it b) deliberate good/bad cop tactic in FED's propaganda toolbox ?

IF it is a) what is the history of FED chair dealing with insubordinate rebels, what r the tools available to deal with a rebellion and ultimately do u think Janet has what it takes to do what-ever would be necessary to bring rebels to heel ?


GVI Forex john bland  11:51:22 GMT - 04/01/2016  
not my view but I just received a bank report that over the last 20-yrs the March NFP beat 200K only 4 times, and only once since 2007. Also the initial print has missed the consensus 67% of the time.

Take this foe what it worth. All I know is that predicting this number with any reliability is virtually impossible, even for the pros.



Livingston nh  11:44:52 GMT - 04/01/2016  
In this new monetary policy regime Dudley FULLY supported his Fearless Leader but today we hear from voting member Mester -- the tone of disagreement, if any, becomes important


GVI Forex john bland  09:16:48 GMT - 04/01/2016  

Trading Themes --
  • Manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone. UK and Japan (plus Tankan Survey) should not do much to allay Chair Yellen concerns about "global headwinds". If she is waiting for a pick up in demand from abroad, it does not appear that such a change is at hand yet. This could temper a market response to a strong U.S. employment report if it materializes today.

  • The Major focus for trading today is the March employment report. The spotlight is on U.S. Job creation, average hourly earnings and some other key metrics. No progress on the economy (or inflation) is expected until wages start to rise. The data are unlikely to impact the April Fed policy decision but most certainly could impact the value of the USD.

  • The new Fed policy of gradual rate hikes should continue to be supportive of equities because it is an aggressive pro-growth posture. We are wary that the Fed might be inflating an equity bubble.



GVI Forex john bland  19:41:12 GMT - 03/31/2016  
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

1-APR FRIDAY
ALL DAY FINAL MFG PMIs
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey
12:30 US- Employment
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan Survey
3-APR SUNDAY
00:00 AU/NZ Clocks Fall Back One Hour

4-APR MONDAY
00:00 CN- Holiday
5-APR TUESDAY
03:30 AU- RBA Decision
All Day Final Service PMIs
6-APR WEDNESDAY
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Minutes
7-APR THURSDAY
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-APR FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Employment







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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