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dc CB  17:23:59 GMT - 04/15/2016  
April 16, 2016 2:00 am JST


Apple Reports 4/25

Apple extends iPhone production cut for another quarter

GVI Forex john bland  17:12:08 GMT - 04/15/2016  
US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts

Total (inc gas) U.S.: 440 vs 443 (-3) prev
US (oil): 351 vs. 354 (-3) prev

Canada 40 vs. 41 (-1) prev

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dc CB  16:55:08 GMT - 04/15/2016  
Another EarthQuake in Japan 7.1

Also today: earthquake with magnitude 6.2 occurred near Suchiate, Chiapas, Mexico at 14:11:29.90 UTC on Apr 15, 2016 ...


GVI Forex john bland  14:01:59 GMT - 04/15/2016  
EURUSD 1.1300 tested.

GVI Forex john bland  14:01:30 GMT - 04/15/2016  
University of Michigan Survey misses.

GVI Forex john bland  14:00:17 GMT - 04/15/2016  
Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index April 2016
U.S. Data Charts

89.7 vs. 92.0 exp. vs. 91.0 prev

RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment

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GVI Forex john bland  13:18:50 GMT - 04/15/2016  
Industrial Production misses. EURUSD higher.

GVI Forex john bland  13:15:57 GMT - 04/15/2016  
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization March 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Ind Production: -0.60% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.50% (r -0.60%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 74.8% vs. 75.30% exp. vs. 75.40% (r 75.30% ) prev.

RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

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Livingston nh  12:36:38 GMT - 04/15/2016  
Yellen, the Great LABOR Economist, missed the Memo about the effect of the Gorilla in the room (NFP, Unemployment rate) on stats -- she thinks it causes inflation -- so until it does it must be wrong

GVI Forex john bland  12:32:22 GMT - 04/15/2016  
PMI much stronger than expected.

GVI Forex john bland  12:31:44 GMT - 04/15/2016  
Empire PMI April 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+9.56 vs. +2.0 vs. +0.62 prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  08:13:22 GMT - 04/15/2016  
China GDP 1Q16yy

+6.70% vs. +6.70% exp. vs. +6.90% prev.

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dc CB  16:44:47 GMT - 04/14/2016  

slip of the tongue??

Mtl JP  16:23:10 GMT - 04/14/2016  
1127 is a typo , sorry 1227 then ,
now 1224

Mtl JP  15:53:47 GMT - 04/14/2016  
Lockhart is clueless, just spewing words without backing.

Gold, the centrifugal separator of BS from Truth is actually down some from 1.1230 to 1.1127ish since

GVI Forex john bland  15:30:39 GMT - 04/14/2016  
-- Brexit would be a big event for global economy
-- Risk Fed must consider
-- Raises questions about Europe outlook
-- CPI indicates Fed has room to be patient

GVI Forex john bland  14:30:19 GMT - 04/14/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts

-3 vs. 0 exp vs. +12 prev.

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Mtl JP  14:02:13 GMT - 04/14/2016  
another cretin - Powell - yakking
should not have category A effect on account

dc CB  13:36:33 GMT - 04/14/2016  
amazing display of magical thinking.

IEA Sees Oil Oversupply Almost Gone in Second Half on Shale Drop

Mtl JP  13:21:48 GMT - 04/14/2016  
hehe, the gall - "focused on to .. help all Americans" - on display is epic propaganda

dc CB  13:09:14 GMT - 04/14/2016  
interview with TIME magazine proclaiming once again that "we are focused on Main Street, on supporting economic conditions - plentiful jobs and stable prices - that help all Americans."

The 'smartest people in the room' cut interest rates, lowering the cost of capital to the lowest in 5000 years...

Day After Obama Meeting, Yellen Confirms Fed "Focused On Main Street... Helping All Americans"

Livingston nh  13:04:18 GMT - 04/14/2016  
John's earlier comment about Global Headwinds was the correct call for the new standard for Yellen et al - IMF scare scenario uses Global Headwinds as a basis for its "concern"

Yellen speech threw out the "dual mandate" and replaced it with the ultimate marshmallow, "Global Headwinds", as an excuse to do nothing

Mtl JP  13:02:55 GMT - 04/14/2016  
tx NH / similar to sell bias against the red line in this chart

Livingston nh  12:55:01 GMT - 04/14/2016  
JP - sell AUD/USD for a test of 21 dma @76

Mtl JP  12:53:20 GMT - 04/14/2016  
Lockhart is not yet a certified cretin, just a clown trying to be one
his babble is not registering even a 10 pip player reaction

Mtl JP  12:46:49 GMT - 04/14/2016  
und so the "so what.... is trade" off "keeps pressure on YELLEN to keep rates low" : sell euro 1.13/1.1330 ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:44:03 GMT - 04/14/2016  
Dollar slipping on dovish Fedspeak

08:35 (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, non-voter): will not advocate for a rate hike in April; has changed view that April move made sense - radio interview
- inflation is lagging behind Fed's target; Fed has more work to do
- reiterates that a patient approach to policy makes sense- softer consumption and investment gives pause; consumer spending does cast some doubt on forecasts- sees 2016 GDP growth between +2-2.5%

** Reminder: 04/11 (US) Fed's Kaplan (moderate, non-voter): data does not support a rate move right now; won't have enough info for a move by April, but open minded about a hike in June

- Source

GVI Forex john bland  12:36:57 GMT - 04/14/2016  
CPI keeps pressure on Fed to keep rates low. Weekly Jobless exceptionally low.

GVI Forex john bland  12:35:49 GMT - 04/14/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts


Initial Claims (000)
253K vs. 270K exp. vs. 267K prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  12:33:07 GMT - 04/14/2016  
U.S. Consumer Price Index March 2016
U.S. Data Charts

m/m: +0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. v -0.20% pre
y/y: +0.90% vs. +1.10% exp. v +1.00% pre
y/y: +2.20% vs. +2.30% exp. v +2.10% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Index

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GVI Forex 11:05:35 GMT - 04/14/2016  
UK yields moving up after the 9-0 decision

GVI Forex john bland  11:02:04 GMT - 04/14/2016  
BOE results as expected. GBP higher as a few had speculated about a more dovish BOE.

GVI Forex john bland  11:00:33 GMT - 04/14/2016  
April 2016 Bank of England Policy Decision


Policy Unchanged (repo rate 0.50%)
Asset Purchases unch @ GBP 375 bln v. GBP 375 bn

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0
Bank of England

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GVI Forex john bland  09:00:58 GMT - 04/14/2016  
Final EZ HICP (CPI) March 2016


mm: +1.20% % vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.

HICP core
yy: +1.00% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  08:18:38 GMT - 04/14/2016  
Australia Employment March 2016

Employment: +26.1 vs. +20.0 exp. vs. +0.3K (r -0.7K) prev.
Rate: 5.70% vs. 5.80% exp. vs. 5.80% prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  18:05:31 GMT - 04/13/2016  
U.S. Fed Beige Book
U.S. Data Charts

-- Economic activity expanded in most districts
-- Most reported modest growth
-- expectations for future mfg expansion mixed
-- Residential real estate strengthened
- prices increased modestly in most districts

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GVI Forex john bland  15:52:42 GMT - 04/13/2016  
nh- the New York Fed must not think much of the Atlanta Fed effort? Why set up a competing forecast within the same organization?

GVI Forex john bland  14:31:18 GMT - 04/13/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts

Crude Oil: +6.600 vs. +1.850 exp vs. -4.900 prev.
Gasoline: -4.200 vs. +1.400 vs. +1.400 prev.
Distillates: + 0.240 vs. +0.390 exp vs. +1.800 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.2% vs. 91.40% prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status


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Livingston nh  14:20:16 GMT - 04/13/2016  
This week we have a new entrant in the GDP NOW to tell us where we stand (more generally useless info) - the NY Fed is adding its own version to Atlanta Fed and other private economists EXPERT expectations

GVI Forex john bland  14:01:02 GMT - 04/13/2016  
U.S. Business Inventories February 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r ) prev.

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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland  14:00:18 GMT - 04/13/2016  
April 2016 Bank of Canada Policy Decision


target unchanged at 0.50%

RELEASE: Bank of Canada

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GVI Forex john bland  12:33:57 GMT - 04/13/2016  
U.S. PPI March 2016
U.S. Data Charts

Headline: -0.10% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.
Core: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.40% (r. ) prev.

RELEASE: Producer Price Index

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GVI Forex john bland  12:32:51 GMT - 04/13/2016  
Big miss in Retail Sales

GVI Forex john bland  12:32:25 GMT - 04/13/2016  
U.S. Advance Retail Sales March 2016
U.S. Data Charts

-0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% (r 0.0% )

x-autos & gas +0.10% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r 0.0% )

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HK [email protected]  12:00:58 GMT - 04/13/2016  

It all depends how you look at it: Beating lowered expectations of analysts(less worse than expected), or real drop in profits.

JPMorgan profit hurt by drop in investment banking revenue

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a 6.7 percent drop in quarterly profit as costs to cover possible sour loans to troubled shale oil companies rose and revenue from trading and investment banking declined.

However, both earnings per share and revenue beat analysts' lowered expectations.

The bank's net income fell to $5.52 billion in the first quarter ended March 31, from $5.91 billion a year earlier. On a per-share basis, earnings fell to $1.35 from $1.45.

Analysts had expected earnings of $1.26 per share, according to Thomson Reuters


GVI Forex john bland  10:42:28 GMT - 04/13/2016  
Headline JPM earnings beat
$1.35 vs $1.26 est

Source: TTN

GVI Forex john bland  09:03:15 GMT - 04/13/2016  
Eurozone Industrial Output February 2016

EZ and German Charts

mm: -0.80% vs. -0.70% exp. vs. +2.10% (r +1.90%)prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. +1.30% exp. vs.+2.80% (r+2.90%) prev.

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GVI Forex john bland  08:10:29 GMT - 04/13/2016  
I was not aware of anyone expecting a production cut.

GVI Forex john bland  08:09:39 GMT - 04/13/2016  
Saudi Oil Official rules out production cut.

GVI Forex john bland  08:08:26 GMT - 04/13/2016  
March 2016 China Trade USDb

- Earlier NEWS --
+29.86 vs. +34.95b exp. vs. +32.6b prev.
Exports (y/y): +11.5% vs. +2.5% exp. vs. -24.5% prev.

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Mtl JP  08:07:51 GMT - 04/13/2016  
achtung !! achtung !!! achtung !!!!

REUTERS report:

"Forget about this topic," al-Naimi told the paper, when asked about any possible reduction in his country's production.

manila tom  05:37:01 GMT - 04/13/2016  
JP, audusd looks trending up nicely, a bit overbought s/t, do you see it being buy on pullbacks?

Mtl JP  04:05:29 GMT - 04/13/2016  
SPOKANE, Wash. The amount of money spent on legal marijuana sales in Spokane County last year was larger than the retail sales of wine, bread or milk.

Retail Sales Report according to sales numbers from the Washington Liquor and Cannabis Board and a survey of household expenses conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau

GVI Forex john bland  20:41:58 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Big build in crude.

GVI Forex john bland  20:39:15 GMT - 04/12/2016  
US Weekly API Crude


Reportedly +6.200 mn vs. +1.800 mn exp

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Livingston nh  15:42:52 GMT - 04/12/2016  
STOX likely burned up the Lunchtime rally on news of the same old bag of beans - higher oil price will save the world ?? - $50 by end of 2016 is a goal? it would still need another 20% just to get back to last April price

Same old stories from same old sources (Fed, ECB, IMF, OPEC) -- Tape Bombs trump fundies and techs

GVI Forex john bland  15:04:59 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Feds Harker:
-- not a lot of slack left in Labor force
-- OK for Fed to overshoot 2% target
-- still possible tfoe three rate hikes this year

GVI Forex 14:33:09 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Oil spikes higher on this

10:30 (SA) Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly have reached consensus on oil freeze - Russia press
- final decision on Saudi Arabia regarding oil output freeze said to not depend on Iran

** NOTE: 04/12 (RU) Russia Energy Min Novak: Oil prices could be between $40-45/barrel in H2 and at $50 by end-2016
- Sees oil market rebalancing in early 2017 if production freeze is agreed upon; prices could hit $60-65/barrel in 2017
- Optimistic about production freeze talks at the Apr 17th Doha meeting

- Source

GVI Forex john bland  14:32:34 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Report: Russia and Saudi Arabia reach agreement on oil production freeze.

Final decision will not depend on Iran

-- TTN

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:56:01 GMT - 04/12/2016  
09:54 (UK) Latest Brexit poll: 42% for staying in EU; 45% for leaving; 12% undecided - ICM poll

- Source

UK JY  13:52:15 GMT - 04/12/2016  
I am surprised no one mentioned this for why the jpy sold off

Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that Japan could act against the yen's rise as needed, based on a G20 agreement backing currency stability, if "one-sided" and "speculative" moves were observed in the currency market. (reuters)

Livingston nh  13:23:28 GMT - 04/12/2016  
xperts -so 3months after the last Gloomy projection IMF says "whoops, it's worse" -- But the Weatherman who always "cold and rainy" is most popular because all of his mistakes are "sunny and warm"

And we have another mass gathering of these types this weekend -- well fed they are

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:07:23 GMT - 04/12/2016  
- Cuts 2016 global growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2%
- Cuts 2017 global growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.5%

2016 Growth Outlook
- Cuts Advanced Economies 2016 GDP from 2.1% to 1.9%
- Cuts EM and Developing Economies 2016 GDP from 4.53% to 4.1%
- Cuts Euro zone 2016 GDP from 1.7% to 1.5%
- Cuts US 2016 GDP from 2.6% to 2.4%
- Cuts German 2016 GDP growth from 1.7% to 1.5%- Cuts France 2016 GDP growth from 1.3% to 1.1%
- Cuts UK 2016 GDP growth from 2.2% to 1.9%
- Cuts Japan 2016 GDP growth from 1.0% to 0.5%
- Raises China 2016 GDP from 6.3% to 6.5%- Cuts Russia 2016 GDP from -1.0% to -1.8%

2017 Growth Outlook- XXX Advanced Economies 2017 GDP from 2.1% to %
- XXX EM and Developing Economies 2017 GDP from 4.7% to %
- XXX Euro zone 2017 GDP from 1.7% to %- XXX US 2017 GDP from 2.6% to %
- XXX German 2017 GDP from 1.7% to %- XXX France 2017 GDP from 1.5% to %
- XXX UK 2017 GDP growth from 2.2% to %
- XXX Japan 2017 GDP growth from 0.3% to %
- XXX China 2017 GDP growth from 6.0% to %- XXX Russia 2017 GDP from 1.0% to %

- Source

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:50:10 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Stay alert:

08:40 Preview: IMF to update its World Economic Outlook (WEO) after 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT) Prior WEO (released on Jan 19th 2016) IMF cut both 2016 and 2017 global growth forecasts

- Source

GVI Forex john bland  12:32:33 GMT - 04/12/2016  
U.S. Import Prices March 2016
U.S. Data Charts

+0.20% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. -0.30% (r -0.40%) prev.

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dc CB  12:29:06 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Goldman Sachs would pay $5.1 billion to settle accusations of wrongdoing before the financial crisis. However, buried in the fine print are provisions that allow Goldman to pay hundreds of millions of dollars less - perhaps as much as $1 billion less - than that headline figure.


dc CB  12:25:41 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Former Goldman employee Rob Kaplan does not think December rate hike was a mistake

GVI Forex john bland  12:15:13 GMT - 04/12/2016  
Fed's Kaplan (Dallas Fed)
-- December rate rise not a mistake
-- 1Q16 very mediocre
-- Slowing global economies must be taken into account

GVI Forex john bland  08:32:17 GMT - 04/12/2016  
UK CPI hotter than expected. GBP up

GVI Forex john bland  08:31:39 GMT - 04/12/2016  
U.K. CPI and RPIX March 2016
U.K. Charts


CPI m/m: +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
CPI y/y: +0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.

RPIX y/y: +1.50% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. 1.40% prev.

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kl shawn  08:02:58 GMT - 04/11/2016  
it is all pre-written script, all drama

dc CB  02:00:02 GMT - 04/11/2016  
President Barack Obama will meet with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Monday to discuss the economy and Wall Street reform, the White House said on Sunday.

Vice President Joe Biden will also attend the meeting. The president and the Fed chair meet regularly to discuss economic issues.

Obama to meet Fed Chair Yellen on Monday

GVI Forex john bland  21:29:20 GMT - 04/10/2016  
BOJ's former Shirai:
-- little room to cut negative rates further.
-- limit of bond purchase effectiveness within 2 yrs


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