JP - unfortunately for them and fortunately for the Great Unwashed the political powers that be are always scapegoat hunting - the Fed will be a primary target
Sanders and/or Trump can save us
Mtl JP 21:28:21 GMT - 04/14/2016
nh the odds-on-favorite is that the FED is more likely to intensify its interference in an attempt to prevail than it is likely to fold.
It has a bunch of non-negligible powerful tools the market does not:
- exclusive privilege to print
- genuflecting MSM to aid in its spread of propaganda
- legislative power and
- backed by physical power of the state
Livingston nh 21:15:57 GMT - 04/14/2016
jp - first, the primary rule in cross-examination is "NEVER ask a question unless you know the answer" - I know what it would look like
second, the "market" will gobble up anything that is profitable -- when the Fed stubborness interferes
with market reality (aka inflation) then the Fed will fold
Mtl JP 21:06:18 GMT - 04/14/2016
nh u would trust something the FED publishes ?
There is only one way to trade off the FED:
by assessing how the market trusts what the FED "communicates" and then betting on how the market will react to it. Sometimes it may matter how the FED reacts to player reaction, whose severity / draconianism can never be under-estimated.
It is not what the FED says that matters.
What matters is how the market gobbles it up.
Livingston nh 20:43:43 GMT - 04/14/2016
Maybe the FOMC could publish a chart showing any 10 yr periods since WWII that inflation has been at or below 1.8% - the performance of 10 yr treasuries for the last 70 years in the periods that inflation has been above those levels mighte iformative
Livingston nh 20:24:58 GMT - 04/14/2016
John - the risk I see is that she and her cohorts have danced around the inflation issue by saying they can tolerate a higher than 2% benchmark -- but they don't say how high -- now despite her sophomoric presentation on inflation last Fall inflation comes in different flavors and destructive effects based on the current economic environment -- comparison to year ago levels is like epidemic planning that ignores recent growth rates
There was a time when WAGE and PRICE controls were introduced @ 4% after a long period of benign inflation -- of course, the next King might think this time its different
GVI Forex john bland 20:14:44 GMT - 04/14/2016
nh- you are dead on. My focus now is primarily inflation. Also, I have finally learned not to pay attention to her peanut gallery.
Livingston nh 20:08:33 GMT - 04/14/2016
John - up until the SPEECH fed funds were trying to deal w/ data (as in DEPENDENT) -- Yellen has made it clear that she has final say on what the "Data Means" to her - so mere mortals have no basis to judge other than she is a confirmed DOVE -- so no hikes until somebody takes her on (market, politicians or peers)
GVI Forex john bland 20:02:34 GMT - 04/14/2016
I am still waiting for these lines to converge.
GVI Forex john bland 13:03:46 GMT - 04/14/2016
Virtually no impact on Fed rate sentiment from U.S. data this morning...
GVI Forex john bland 20:52:55 GMT - 04/13/2016
EURUSD vs. current Fed Funds bias suggesting the odds for a rate hike before year-end is going to be rising. Lets see how the sentiment relationship pans out.
nw kw 17:51:35 GMT - 04/13/2016
ya right oil cant fight resistance pivot well not in rush. compared to Russell.
nw kw 17:32:49 GMT - 04/13/2016
just restocking run for china so copper head fake in time. Than we have the bag of bad investments again.
nw kw 17:29:06 GMT - 04/13/2016
see fed on weed its all gibberish just different week. but strong usa, in bonds in time from fake oil price for cargass.
nw kw 17:18:53 GMT - 04/13/2016
employed people in Australia last munth thay liyed it was a sell aud so xaud rang at support gives it leeway for soft aud so long gbpaud.
nw kw 17:04:26 GMT - 04/13/2016
cad has oil and ngas deals this month and cad lumber exports boming, has new market from TP trade deal, cad GDP will outperform usa.
nw kw 16:56:37 GMT - 04/13/2016
is swiss going long s/p awaiting chf/jpy to indicate if jpy support is in for chart can free fall but jpy can start fx moves upsetting china, what do you see, and gbpcad still dropping.
GVI Forex john bland 16:25:38 GMT - 04/13/2016
Looking at our exclusive funds futures sentiment indicator, it is looking to me like the decline in EURUSD might be getting a bit ahead of Fed Fund Futures expectations.
GVI Forex john bland 09:36:51 GMT - 04/13/2016
The Fed Funds rate BIAS is higher at this hour. This is bullish USD and bearish EURUSD today.
dc CB 18:22:57 GMT - 04/12/2016
Aggressive central bank monetary policies have created artificial demand for corporate debt which we think companies are exploiting by issuing debt they do not actually need. The proceeds of this debt raising are then largely reinvested back into the equity market via M&A or share buybacks in an attempt to boost share prices in the absence of actual demand.
US corporates will have to borrow over 2.5% of their market capitalisation (over $400bn each year) to, somewhat ironically, buy back their own stock.
As such asset prices (i.e. equity markets) and asset price risk (i.e. equity volatility) are far bigger concerns. So all you need for a balance sheet crisis is declining equity markets, a phenomenon the Fed appears desperate to avoid.
Initial chart today called the market bias correct again (weaker EURUSD). by midday the gap between the expected Fed Funds value and spot EURUSD has closed to a more neutral bias. Hawkish talk from a couple of out of touch Fed speakers has been completely ignored.
dc CB 12:24:45 GMT - 04/12/2016
the vast majority of the U.S. population remains deluded that the Fed is a publicly owned institution.
Currently, the leaders of the New York, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis Fed banks are helmed by men who formerly worked for or had close connections to investment bank Goldman Sachs.
the Federal Reserve works not for the people of America, but for its owners - the banks.
Odds for a rate hike by the end of the year higher at this hour. Keep in mind not is not the forecast that matters. Odds are it is wrong. It is shifting SENTiMENT that we are tracking. EURUSD weight as the day wears on?
Mtl JP 05:11:08 GMT - 04/12/2016
China’s economy has shown positive signs in the first few months of the year, but it still faces strong headwind and supply-side structural reform is needed to help stabilize growth, said China’s Premier Li Keqiang on Monday.
Can Janet relax about China already and pull her rates normalization forward ?
dc CB 00:12:46 GMT - 04/12/2016
that's funny, your auto censor censored J*ap.
dc CB 00:10:18 GMT - 04/12/2016
don't fight Kuroda either
Jamming The censored Yen....or shud I say CRAMMMMING
dc CB 00:06:38 GMT - 04/12/2016
Alcoa's GAAP Net Income for the LTM period ended December 31 was a net lLOSS of $501 million,
When one adds back all the charges incurred over the past 12 months, the "net income", on a non-GAAP Basis of course, soars to a ridiculous $532 million.
The plug? "One-time, non-recurring" addbacks and various other restructuring charges amounting to over $1 billion for the LTM period!
Don't fight the FED ? (is that Cramer screaming or your own voluntary yell?) Tell that to stox please, the one crowd collective that usually goes uP on a promise of cheap(er) for long(er) accessible(r) money.
In as much as Yellen's FED is doing its utmost to peddle its low interest for longer thereby preventing honest price discovery, the market is in the process of discovering what sort and how much of a liar is Janet.
dc CB 12:14 / Here is Ben again, shamelessly blathering that "so-called helicopter money could work". Well at least in "theoretical perspective".
What does not appear to cross Ben's mind is that the FED and its fiat money is a failure and an anti-thesis to "sound money".
It does not occur to him that his ideas could be viewed as plain stupid, particularly to folks who have to give up a solid day of honest work for a wage. Only to see their wage lose its purchasing power next day because Ben suggests to print up some more, deliver to select some and forgive "debt, which the Fed agrees to purchase and hold indefinitely". Is it any wonder that folks in the real economy do not swallow Ben's codswallop pushing the cretin into ever more marginal corners of economic astronomy theories ?
"Only Gold is money. Everything else is credit." - JP Morgan
Blackrock's Larry Fink and Bill
Gross, both of whom came out hammering NIRP, pointing out that it would decrease spending, lead to disastrous consequences for insurance companies and pension funds, and generally crush the middle class.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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