Global-View Exclusive Fed Funds Futures Sentiment Indicator showing a mild divergence. This could change, but at this hour it suggests the EURUSD downside may be limited. This is NOT a strong signal.
GVI Forex john bland 14:33:49 GMT - 04/21/2016
You can see from the chart that our EXCLUSIVE Fed Funds Sentiment Indicator NEVER bought the idea of a EURUSD trade to the 1.1400 line today.
GVI Forex john bland 09:03:38 GMT - 04/21/2016
Pre-U.S. view of Fed Funds futures suggesting no major mispricing of EURUSD at current levels. Markets quickly adjusted to the sudden change in market sentiment (positive USD) yesterday afternoon. I'm still not sure what the impetus was for the change, but its usually not a god idea to fight the tape. The focus today is how Mr Draghi responds to criticism of the current policies of the ECB.
Livingston nh 21:56:07 GMT - 04/20/2016
cb - part of HRC e-mail has plan for replacement of G. Washington with WJC circa 1985 image
plans to replace former President Andrew Jackson on the $20 bill.
Shades the current Pres election "debate"
Bank War, in U.S. history, the struggle between President Andrew Jackson and Nicholas Biddle, president of the Bank of the United States, over the continued existence of the only national banking institution in the nation during the second quarter of the 19th century. The first Bank of the United States, chartered in 1791 over the objections of Thomas Jefferson, ceased in 1811 when Jeffersonian Republicans refused to pass a new federal charter. In 1816 the second Bank of the United States was created, with a 20-year federal charter.
In 1829 and again in 1830 Jackson made clear his constitutional objections and personal antagonism toward the bank. He believed it concentrated too much economic power in the hands of a small monied elite beyond the public’s control.
Saying “The bank is trying to kill me, but I will kill it,” Jackson issued a potent veto message. The fate of the bank then became the central issue of the presidential election of 1832 between Jackson and Clay. Jackson concluded from his victory in that election that he had a mandate not only to refuse the bank a new charter but to destroy as soon as possible what he called a “hydra of corruption.” (Many of his political enemies had loans from the bank or were on its payroll.)
GVI Forex john bland 19:35:40 GMT - 04/20/2016
Something is afoot here. It does not mean they are right, but don't fight the tape.
dc CB 19:31:25 GMT - 04/20/2016
This is what Draggi will say during his presser.
Tag Kuroda and Yellen ...You're IT!!!!!
GVI Forex john bland 19:23:32 GMT - 04/20/2016
Today's trade raises the stakes on the ECB meeting tomorrow.
GVI Forex john bland 19:19:44 GMT - 04/20/2016
Traders seem to be focused on falling bond prices, rising stocks and rising commodities.
GVI Forex john bland 19:17:00 GMT - 04/20/2016
I am not about the impetus for this, but U.S. markets have suddenly started to expect something from the Fed. These charts are striking. Odds for a rate hike by yearend are now up to 74% and EURUSD has fallen as a result. Its hard to ignore the message of the markets today.
Mtl JP 15:04:29 GMT - 04/20/2016
Think Trump realizes the difference between United States Note and Federal Reserve Note ?
dc CB 14:51:57 GMT - 04/20/2016
An if you think anything is going to change due to the US elections, then the results of the NY Primary should put that foolish idea to rest.
A given is Hilllary...a better friend will never be found.
But now that the nomination seems to be in his grasp, Trump starts to show his colors. From a Fortune Magazine interview>on Yellen and the FED...but the key is on Interest Rates.
"I think she’s done a serviceable job," Trump tells Fortune. "I don’t want to comment on reappointment, but I would be more inclined to put other people in."
As he’s said in the past, Trump tells Fortune that he would “absolutely” support proposals that would take power away from the Fed, and allow Congress to audit the U.S. central bank’s decision making.
"People think the Fed should be raising interest rates,” says Trump. “If rates are 3% or 4% or whatever, you start adding that kind of number to an already reasonably crippled economy in terms of what we produce, that number is a very scary number.”
dc CB 14:45:36 GMT - 04/20/2016
What's not to like....the printing presses running full steam ahead into the end of the month.
Draggi's press tom
Kuroda and Yellen: Double Dueling Presses next Wed, with Yellen batting clean-up for the Big Win
Dow 19000 by May 1
dc CB 14:04:08 GMT - 04/20/2016
Next Week: Yellen and the FOMC, how will she compete with
Kuroda and the BOJ.
By a process of elimination, we think the BOJ is most likely to ease mainly via the qualitative measure, with increasing ETF purchasing the central pillar, with a view to improving business confidence. We think the market is already factoring in an increase in annual purchasing from ¥3.3 tn to ¥5-6 tn, and we thus think the BOJ may look to slightly more than double its current figure to around ¥7 tn.
We also see a possibility that the BOJ may combine the expansion of ETF purchases with a cut in the interest rate of its loan support scheme.
no wonder gold, silver, and anything you can hold in your hand are rising in price.
Mtl JP 11:01:48 GMT - 04/20/2016
how do u use that to help predict the next eur/dlr trade?
GVI Forex john bland 10:22:27 GMT - 04/20/2016
The Exclusive Global-View Sentiment Indicator has seen spot EURUSD converge with implied market odds for a rate hike this year. So the two are about in balance at this hour.
GVI Forex john bland 20:11:52 GMT - 04/19/2016
GVI Forex john bland 14:03:39 GMT - 04/19/2016
Sentiment indicator. Gap narrowing vs. earlier today.
GVI Forex john bland 12:52:05 GMT - 04/19/2016
Market Sentiment odds of a rate hike by yearend falls to 52% from 58% beforehand. At 1.1550+ , EURUSD inching up to the 1.1400+ area anticipated by our chart.
GVI Forex john bland 11:39:21 GMT - 04/19/2016
Housing data today, especially if it is stronger than expected, could raise sentiment about a Fed rate hike this year. At the moment, odds for one rate hike this year have stabilized at something just above 50-50. The chart below says a status quo reading would be supportive of a EURUSD move to the 1.1400 area.
Keep in mind, the other side of the equation is the ECB, which will come down with its latest decision (market expects unchanged) on Thursday.
nw kw 21:57:34 GMT - 04/18/2016
Brokers affected from eur tax hunt, im blocked from some brokers just to see if they are changing,
is there broker advice hear for fx has evolving, out to laving smaller players at risk.
GVI Forex john bland 20:21:01 GMT - 04/18/2016
The Outlook for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year continued to hold at just above 50-50 as of the U.S. close. Our exclusive sentiment indicator suggests the EURUSD should be gaining from current levels....
GVI Forex john bland 13:59:39 GMT - 04/18/2016
Odds for a Fed rate hike this year remain low. If those odds remain the same (54%), it looks like EURUSD should be heading for the 1.1400 area. Thoughts?
odds for a Fed rate hike this year remain low
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