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GVI Forex john bland  17:06:04 GMT - 05/06/2016  

US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Total (inc gas) U.S.: 415 vs 420 (-5) prev
US (oil): 328 vs. 332 (-5) prev

Canada 36 vs. 37 (-1) prev



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Mtl JP  15:47:41 GMT - 05/06/2016  
fwiw

Obama on Friday will deliver a statement "on the economy and new steps to strengthen financial transparency and combat money laundering, corruption, and tax evasion," the White House said. Obama is scheduled to make the remarks at 12:05 EDT (1605 GMT) at the White House,



london red  14:06:28 GMT - 05/06/2016  
wick and two tails on last two hourly candles suggests a bit of indecision. topside stops done on initial flash high but lower not really done. below 114 would see them taken then maybe a squeeze towards 11460/65 over a few hours. in truth 2 or 3 reports identical to this and fed raises but first one and some sees weakening jobs growth while others grasp at rising wages, hence indecision.


GVI Forex john bland  14:03:17 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Both indices Better.





GVI Forex john bland  14:00:23 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Canada Ivey PMI (sa) April 2016





ALERT
53.1 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 50.1 prev.

RELEASE: Ivey Purchasing Managers Report


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Mtl JP  13:47:24 GMT - 05/06/2016  
john it is a traders' world:
One guy sells and another one buys.
Both think they’re smart.
It does not get better.


GVI Forex john bland  13:38:59 GMT - 05/06/2016  
JP- re Ivey, for once I agree with you! I promise to mark it down to "C"


Mtl JP  13:37:42 GMT - 05/06/2016  
A CA Ivey PMI at top of hour is highly likely mis-categorized risk
-
paper Gold down = usd uP
usd uP = cad down
--
snp at 2038 (uP 8pnts) now eurdlr sleeping sofar


GVI Forex john bland  12:54:03 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Weak Canadian Jobs data.


GVI Forex john bland  12:53:26 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Canada EMPLOYMENT April 2016



NEWS ALERT

Jobs: -2.1K vs. +1.0K exp. vs. +40.6K prev.
Rate: 7.10% vs. 7.10% exp. vs. 7.10% prev.



RELEASE: StatCan Monthy Employment Report





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Canada Jobs: weaker than expected



GVI Forex john bland  12:33:24 GMT - 05/06/2016  
U.S. Employment April 2016







ALERT
NFP Jobs: +160 vs. +205K exp. vs. +215K (r +208K ) prev.
Rate: 5.00% vs. 5.00% exp. vs. 5.00% prev.

Avg earnings 0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r +0.20%prev.
BLS: Employment Situation Summary


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GVI Forex john bland  12:31:02 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Poor number


GVI Forex john bland  12:30:33 GMT - 05/06/2016  
+0.3%


GVI Forex john bland  12:30:15 GMT - 05/06/2016  
160K


GVI Forex john bland  08:12:01 GMT - 05/06/2016  
second-tier data but weak. Part of the larger picture.


GVI Forex john bland  08:11:07 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Retail PMI April 2016





ALERT

47.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.2
Markit PMI Press Release



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GVI Forex john bland  14:30:33 GMT - 05/05/2016  
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+68 vs. +70 exp vs. +73 prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  12:31:08 GMT - 05/05/2016  
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)

+274K vs. 260K exp. vs. 257K prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  08:31:04 GMT - 05/05/2016  
Another miss in UK PMI data. Lowest since Feb 2013.


GVI Forex john bland  08:30:25 GMT - 05/05/2016  
GB Services PMI April 2016
U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

52.3 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.7 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



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GVI Forex john bland  08:17:09 GMT - 05/05/2016  
Calendar Correction: EZ Retail PMI will be released on Friday At 08:10 GMT due to holidays today. This is a second-tier release at best.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  23:11:18 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Tallinn and Haifa can you email me at [email protected]


Haifa ac  22:13:44 GMT - 05/04/2016  
ANN Coulter. Sharp as tack!

AND THEN THERE WAS THE ONE

A guy just won the Republican nomination for president by spending no money, hiring no pollsters, running virtually no TV ads, and just saying what he truly believed no matter how many times people told him he couldn't say that.


I always hoped I'd see this once before I died. It's like to going to Mecca, for Americans. Pay attention, because it's the last time we're going to see it in our lifetimes.


For those of you not yet on the Trump Train, I know you don't want to vote for Hillary, but all the pundits have been trying to convince you that Trump's a complete fraud. (That was between their smug assurances that he wouldn't make it out of Iowa.)


It's odd. When Trump launched his campaign by talking about Mexican rapists and the wall, his critics hysterically denounced him, rushing to TV to say he did NOT represent the Republican Party! Only after it became resoundingly clear that large majorities of Americans agreed with Trump did his critics try a new tack: He doesn't believe it!

http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2016-05-04.html


GVI Forex john bland  21:22:59 GMT - 05/04/2016  
OFFICIAL: John Kasich suspends his Presidential campaign. This was as widely expected.


GVI Forex john bland  17:20:30 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q16 forecast changed to 1.70% from 1.80%.

Source: TTN


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:02:27 GMT - 05/04/2016  
12:54 (JP) Japan PM Abe: had an honest discussion with German Chancellor Merkel about monetary stimlus - comments from Germany - reiterates that we are watching the FX market and will act if necessary; still seeing speculative movement in the FX market

- German Chancellor Merkel: currency competition does not result in economic advantages

**NOTE: 05/02: (JP) Japan PM Abe: Plans to launch a G7 version of his 'three arrows' policy to send a clear message to the world - Japan press

- G7 leaders summit schedule for May 26-27th in Japan - Source TradeTheNews.com


GVI Forex john bland  14:56:05 GMT - 05/04/2016  
I think in general that the Services PMI is saying NFP should be trending lower...


GVI Forex john bland  14:54:13 GMT - 05/04/2016  
for those who like to watch the ISM Services Index and NFP.

Warning: nh does not like this chart. He says its apples and oranges! He is correct!


Services Employment PMI vs. NFP. Not perfect by any means but there is a relationship.


Beijing Laowen  14:42:43 GMT - 05/04/2016  
GVI Forex john bland 14:39 GMT 05/04/2016
========
Hi John, got it. Thanks for your patience. Cheers.


GVI Forex john bland  14:39:38 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Laowen- the markets tend to look at the changes in these data more in volume than in percentage terms because they tend to fluctuate a lot on a week to week basis. A +/-100% change (or much more) on a week to week basis is typical.


Beijing Laowen  14:34:42 GMT - 05/04/2016  
GVI Forex john bland 14:32 GMT 05/04/2016
=========

Hi John, WTI Crude 2.8 vs 1.4, which looks 100% more than expected, is just slightly more? I am a bit confused and your advice is appreciated. Many thanks.


GVI Forex john bland  14:32:01 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Slightly larger build than expected in Crude.


GVI Forex john bland  14:31:12 GMT - 05/04/2016  
US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts






NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +2.800 vs. +1.400 exp vs. +2.000 prev.
Gasoline: +0.500 vs. -0.300 vs. +1.695 prev.
Distillates: -1.300 vs. -0.100 exp vs. +1.695 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.70% vs. 88.10% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status Report



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Mtl JP  14:18:09 GMT - 05/04/2016  
next up risk A category: EIA Crude
at bottom of hour


GVI Forex john bland  14:07:56 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Factory Orders March 2016
U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
+1.1% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -1.70% (r -1.9%)prev. rev.



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GVI Forex john bland  14:06:44 GMT - 05/04/2016  
U.S. ISM Services PMI April 2016
MORE: U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
55.7 vs. 54.8 exp. vs. 54.5 prev.
Employment sub-component
53.0 vs. 50.3 prev.


RELEASE: ISM Services PMI


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GVI Forex john bland  13:45:19 GMT - 05/04/2016  
U.S. Markit final Services PMI April 2016
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
52.8 vs. 52.4 exp. vs. 52.1 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release


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GVI Forex john bland  12:34:21 GMT - 05/04/2016  
U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade March 2016
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-40.4 vs. -45.5 exp. vs. -47.1 (r -47.0) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-3.4 vs. -1.4 exp. vs. -1.90 (r -2.50)prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


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nw kw  12:33:46 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Big Miss in trade for cad in 2 years.


GVI Forex john bland  12:32:39 GMT - 05/04/2016  
U.S. Productivity 1Q16
U.S. Data Charts



   MORE: U.S. Charts

NEWS ALERT

-1.00% vs. -1.40% exp. vs. -2.20% (R ) prev.


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Mtl JP  12:28:21 GMT - 05/04/2016  
red I am betting that usd has seen its worst and is turning around


london red  12:22:24 GMT - 05/04/2016  
for next move watch if dollar losses stick vs yen and euro. if cannot stick euro likely to retest low. if dollar losses stick dollar should slowly get squeezed further as session goes on. adp is bad enough to be a game changer but remember nfp forecasts are now going to be altered so bar will be much lower come friday.


GVI Forex john bland  12:15:30 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Big Miss in ADP


GVI Forex john bland  12:15:09 GMT - 05/04/2016  
U.S. ADP Private Employment April 2016
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+156K vs. +198K exp. vs. +200K (r +194K ) prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®



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GVI Forex john bland  09:23:46 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Eurozone Retail Sales misses as well.


GVI Forex john bland  09:01:36 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Eurozone Retail Sales March 2016





ALERT
mm: -0.50% vs -0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% (r +0.30%) prev.
yy: +2.10% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +2.40% (r +2.70%) prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  08:31:03 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Big miss in UK Construction PMI


GVI Forex john bland  08:30:29 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Construction PMI April 2016




-- NEWS ALERT --

52.0 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 54.2 prev.



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GVI Forex john bland  08:00:54 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Slight downward revisions in flash pmis


GVI Forex john bland  08:00:17 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Final Service PMI April 2016





ALERT

EZ- Final Service PMI
53.1 vs. 53.2 exp. vs. 53.2 (flash)
France
50.6 vs. 50.8 exp. vs. 50.8 (flash)
Germany
54.5 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.6 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release



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dc CB  02:02:32 GMT - 05/04/2016  
LIVE BLOG: Updates on the Fort McMurray wildfires

CB News

Live Blog



dc CB  00:55:23 GMT - 05/04/2016  
Residents of neighborhoods in the Canadian boomtown of Fort McMurray - considered the gateway to Alberta's oil sands as the Athabasca oil sands are roughly centered around the town - are under mandatory evacuation as a massive wildfire has jumped across Highway 63 and entered the city limits. Homes have begun to burn in Fort McMurray as residents flee for safety from a blaze that’s doubled in size within a day. More than 30,000 people have now been ordered to evacuate Fort McMurray communities.

Massive Fire Burns At Gateway Town To Alberta's Oilsands; 30,000 Evacuated



NW KW  00:41:40 GMT - 05/04/2016  
NORTH WEST FIRE SPREADIND AROUND OIL TARE SANDS AND FORTS ON FIRE.


Mtl JP  22:26:05 GMT - 05/03/2016  
106.78 back to 0 sum


Mtl JP  21:57:42 GMT - 05/03/2016  
dc CB it is tuff direct trading the cretins coz for their intervention to have better than half-life of a fruit fly they have to co-ordinate and blow a massive amount to blow blow say 500 or more pips AND sustain it.
U can bet that unless u r In The Circle or unless u carry a layered tickets u ll be the last one to know / benefit.


GVI Forex john bland  21:56:48 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Japan acts in what it perceives to be its self interest. The U.S. will do nothing.


dc CB  21:48:42 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Mayday mayday ....dangerr danger Will Rogers

Nothing to see here, move along...

Standard 75 pip vertical ramp after NY hours...and before Japan opens...

Did The Bank Of Japan Just Step In To USDJPY?



Mtl JP  21:46:32 GMT - 05/03/2016  
wozers... 107.50
what r u gonna do about it Jacob ?


Mtl JP  21:39:19 GMT - 05/03/2016  
ya hear Japan ?

Lew cautions Japan against currency intervention



GVI Forex john bland  20:55:26 GMT - 05/03/2016  
US Weekly API Crude




ALERT
Reportedly +1.300 mn vs. +1.400 mn exp



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Mtl JP  14:40:05 GMT - 05/03/2016  
john bland 13:51 - the OPEC governors disagreement is not harsh nuff - they need to start to plink each other's boats/terminals/wells to make it a real m/east disagreement.


Mtl JP  14:15:56 GMT - 05/03/2016  
mester on yak deck in 15 mins


GVI Forex john bland  13:59:45 GMT - 05/03/2016  
I don't think it is a surprise that Saudi Arabia and Iran are at odds on policy. This is not your father's OPEC. They have less control over global supply and prices these days with more relative production coming from non-cartel sources. Oil dipped on this report.


GVI Forex john bland  13:51:41 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Report OPEC governors disagree on long-term strategy due Iran and Saudi split on Price policy. Saudi does not want to return to quotas. Iran said to want price florr.

Source: TTN


GVI Forex john bland  09:01:58 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Eurozone PPI April 2016





ALERT
mm: +0.30% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. -0.70% (r ) prev.
yy: -4.20% vs. -4.40% exp. vs. -4.20% (r ) prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  08:45:33 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Earlier: Caixin PMI eases to 49.4 . Still sub-50.



GVI Forex john bland  08:36:22 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Big miss in UK mfg PMI lowest level in three years.


GVI Forex john bland  08:30:19 GMT - 05/03/2016  
Manufacturing PMI April 2016
U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

49.2 vs. 51.2 exp. vs. 51.0 (r 50.7) prev.





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GVI Forex 01:46:17 GMT - 05/03/2016  
China Apr caixin MFG PMI final decrease to 49.4 (fcast 49.9 ) vs. prev 49.7


dc CB  17:13:43 GMT - 05/02/2016  
JP

this is the same crew that made a similar call in the EURO that went the other way Large.


Mtl JP  17:10:16 GMT - 05/02/2016  
structural view
- ultimately will go a lot higher. But in the short term, it will fall.
--
Got to love the trade's definition.
I think it is the same crew that used 7% stop loss for its earlier short Gold view.
NOT a good trading tactic for the 200-500:1 levered crowd.


Livingston nh  17:04:04 GMT - 05/02/2016  
Treasury put out a watch list on Friday - Japan may decide to ignore it but a fiscal response is more likely before the election


dc CB  16:43:34 GMT - 05/02/2016  
 
Our view going into last week was that the BoJ needed to grab the bull by the horns and dispel the notion that it is running “out of bullets.” We thought it could do this by shifting the emphasis back to balance sheet expansion by, for example, taking concrete steps to lift housing loans off banks’ balance sheets, something Governor Kuroda floated in a recent speech. Instead, the BoJ seemed intent on teaching the markets to be “patient,” downgrading the inflation forecast yet again while taking no action. This is a fateful miscalculation in our view. Unconventional easing is above all an expectations game, where it is necessary to shock markets again and again, until they have no reason to question a central bank’s commitment to its inflation target. Preaching “patience” is the opposite, telling markets they expect too much.

There is little doubt in our minds that $/JPY will keep falling in the near term, until Governor Kuroda is forced to respond with overwhelming force. We therefore hold to our structural view that $/JPY ultimately will go a lot higher. But in the short term, it will fall.

Goldman FX Team

Goldman Throws In The Bearish Yen Towel: "There Is Little Doubt That The USDJPY Will Keep Falling"



dc CB  16:37:16 GMT - 05/02/2016  
SNB's Jordan

WE LOST A BUNDLE ON OUR APPL POSITION


GVI Forex john bland  16:35:57 GMT - 05/02/2016  
SNB's Jordan
-- Negative rates and FX intervention will stabilize price pressures.
-- CHF remains significantly overvalued


Source:TTT


dc CB  16:35:53 GMT - 05/02/2016  
Kurossive on the wires.

STRONG YEN CAN HAVE UNWELCOME EFFECT ON ECONOMY.
BOJ WON'T HESITATE TO ADD STIMULUS IF NEEDED.

YES I CHOKED LAST WEEK.


GVI Forex john bland  16:28:24 GMT - 05/02/2016  
That was an intervention threat by Kuroda


GVI Forex john bland  16:27:31 GMT - 05/02/2016  
BOJ Kuroda
-- Current JPY rise could have adverse impact on economy
-- Closely watching Markets


Source: TTN


GVI Forex john bland  14:02:17 GMT - 05/02/2016  
U.S. Construction Spending March 2016
U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+0.30% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% (r +1.0%) prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  14:01:06 GMT - 05/02/2016  
ISM weaker than expected


GVI Forex john bland  14:00:15 GMT - 05/02/2016  
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI April 2016
U.S. Data Charts




News ALERT

50.8 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


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GVI Forex john bland  13:45:10 GMT - 05/02/2016  
U.S. Markit PMI April 2016




ALERT
50.8 vs. 50.8 exp. vs. 50.8 prev.


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Markit PMI Press Release


Mtl JP  13:36:06 GMT - 05/02/2016  
ISM manufacturing at top of hour has bigger potential to move balance in account than MARKIT manuf PMI 15 mins before it.


GVI Forex john bland  13:32:28 GMT - 05/02/2016  
Canada PMI beats previous data.


GVI Forex john bland  13:30:18 GMT - 05/02/2016  
Canada Markit PMI April 2016





ALERT
52.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 51.5 prev.


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GVI Forex john bland  08:28:55 GMT - 05/02/2016  
Swiss PMI April 2016





Earlier Data News


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Direct links to primary data sources

Swiss Charts


EARLIER: Swiss PMI improves to 54.7 from 53.2


GVI Forex john bland  08:00:40 GMT - 05/02/2016  
Final MFG PMI April 2016





ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
51.7 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.5 (flash)
France
48.0 vs. 48.3 exp. vs. 48.3 (flash)
Germany
51.8 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 51.9 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release



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