-- Current JPY rise could have adverse impact on economy
-- Closely watching Markets
GVI Forex john bland 16:28:24 GMT - 05/02/2016
That was an intervention threat by Kuroda
dc CB 16:35:53 GMT - 05/02/2016
Kurossive on the wires.
STRONG YEN CAN HAVE UNWELCOME EFFECT ON ECONOMY.
BOJ WON'T HESITATE TO ADD STIMULUS IF NEEDED.
YES I CHOKED LAST WEEK.
GVI Forex john bland 16:35:57 GMT - 05/02/2016
-- Negative rates and FX intervention will stabilize price pressures.
-- CHF remains significantly overvalued
dc CB 16:37:16 GMT - 05/02/2016
WE LOST A BUNDLE ON OUR APPL POSITION
dc CB 16:43:34 GMT - 05/02/2016
Our view going into last week was that the BoJ needed to grab the bull by the horns and dispel the notion that it is running “out of bullets.” We thought it could do this by shifting the emphasis back to balance sheet expansion by, for example, taking concrete steps to lift housing loans off banks’ balance sheets, something Governor Kuroda floated in a recent speech. Instead, the BoJ seemed intent on teaching the markets to be “patient,” downgrading the inflation forecast yet again while taking no action. This is a fateful miscalculation in our view. Unconventional easing is above all an expectations game, where it is necessary to shock markets again and again, until they have no reason to question a central bank’s commitment to its inflation target. Preaching “patience” is the opposite, telling markets they expect too much.
There is little doubt in our minds that $/JPY will keep falling in the near term, until Governor Kuroda is forced to respond with overwhelming force. We therefore hold to our structural view that $/JPY ultimately will go a lot higher. But in the short term, it will fall.
Treasury put out a watch list on Friday - Japan may decide to ignore it but a fiscal response is more likely before the election
Mtl JP 17:10:16 GMT - 05/02/2016
- ultimately will go a lot higher. But in the short term, it will fall.
Got to love the trade's definition.
I think it is the same crew that used 7% stop loss for its earlier short Gold view.
NOT a good trading tactic for the 200-500:1 levered crowd.
dc CB 17:13:43 GMT - 05/02/2016
this is the same crew that made a similar call in the EURO that went the other way Large.
GVI Forex01:46:17 GMT - 05/03/2016
China Apr caixin MFG PMI final decrease to 49.4 (fcast 49.9 ) vs. prev 49.7
Report OPEC governors disagree on long-term strategy due Iran and Saudi split on Price policy. Saudi does not want to return to quotas. Iran said to want price florr.
GVI Forex john bland 13:59:45 GMT - 05/03/2016
I don't think it is a surprise that Saudi Arabia and Iran are at odds on policy. This is not your father's OPEC. They have less control over global supply and prices these days with more relative production coming from non-cartel sources. Oil dipped on this report.
Mtl JP 14:15:56 GMT - 05/03/2016
mester on yak deck in 15 mins
Mtl JP 14:40:05 GMT - 05/03/2016
john bland 13:51 - the OPEC governors disagreement is not harsh nuff - they need to start to plink each other's boats/terminals/wells to make it a real m/east disagreement.
Japan acts in what it perceives to be its self interest. The U.S. will do nothing.
Mtl JP 21:57:42 GMT - 05/03/2016
dc CB it is tuff direct trading the cretins coz for their intervention to have better than half-life of a fruit fly they have to co-ordinate and blow a massive amount to blow blow say 500 or more pips AND sustain it.
U can bet that unless u r In The Circle or unless u carry a layered tickets u ll be the last one to know / benefit.
Mtl JP 22:26:05 GMT - 05/03/2016
106.78 back to 0 sum
NW KW 00:41:40 GMT - 05/04/2016
NORTH WEST FIRE SPREADIND AROUND OIL TARE SANDS AND FORTS ON FIRE.
dc CB 00:55:23 GMT - 05/04/2016
Residents of neighborhoods in the Canadian boomtown of Fort McMurray - considered the gateway to Alberta's oil sands as the Athabasca oil sands are roughly centered around the town - are under mandatory evacuation as a massive wildfire has jumped across Highway 63 and entered the city limits. Homes have begun to burn in Fort McMurray as residents flee for safety from a blaze that’s doubled in size within a day. More than 30,000 people have now been ordered to evacuate Fort McMurray communities.
for next move watch if dollar losses stick vs yen and euro. if cannot stick euro likely to retest low. if dollar losses stick dollar should slowly get squeezed further as session goes on. adp is bad enough to be a game changer but remember nfp forecasts are now going to be altered so bar will be much lower come friday.
Mtl JP 12:28:21 GMT - 05/04/2016
red I am betting that usd has seen its worst and is turning around
GVI Forex john bland 14:32 GMT 05/04/2016
Hi John, WTI Crude 2.8 vs 1.4, which looks 100% more than expected, is just slightly more? I am a bit confused and your advice is appreciated. Many thanks.
GVI Forex john bland 14:39:38 GMT - 05/04/2016
Laowen- the markets tend to look at the changes in these data more in volume than in percentage terms because they tend to fluctuate a lot on a week to week basis. A +/-100% change (or much more) on a week to week basis is typical.
Beijing Laowen 14:42:43 GMT - 05/04/2016
GVI Forex john bland 14:39 GMT 05/04/2016
Hi John, got it. Thanks for your patience. Cheers.
GVI Forex john bland 14:54:13 GMT - 05/04/2016
for those who like to watch the ISM Services Index and NFP.
Warning: nh does not like this chart. He says its apples and oranges! He is correct!
Services Employment PMI vs. NFP. Not perfect by any means but there is a relationship.
GVI Forex john bland 14:56:05 GMT - 05/04/2016
I think in general that the Services PMI is saying NFP should be trending lower...
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:02:27 GMT - 05/04/2016
12:54 (JP) Japan PM Abe: had an honest discussion with German Chancellor Merkel about monetary stimlus - comments from Germany - reiterates that we are watching the FX market and will act if necessary; still seeing speculative movement in the FX market
- German Chancellor Merkel: currency competition does not result in economic advantages
**NOTE: 05/02: (JP) Japan PM Abe: Plans to launch a G7 version of his 'three arrows' policy to send a clear message to the world - Japan press
- G7 leaders summit schedule for May 26-27th in Japan - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex john bland 17:20:30 GMT - 05/04/2016
Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q16 forecast changed to 1.70% from 1.80%.
GVI Forex john bland 21:22:59 GMT - 05/04/2016
OFFICIAL: John Kasich suspends his Presidential campaign. This was as widely expected.
Haifa ac 22:13:44 GMT - 05/04/2016
ANN Coulter. Sharp as tack!
AND THEN THERE WAS THE ONE
A guy just won the Republican nomination for president by spending no money, hiring no pollsters, running virtually no TV ads, and just saying what he truly believed no matter how many times people told him he couldn't say that.
I always hoped I'd see this once before I died. It's like to going to Mecca, for Americans. Pay attention, because it's the last time we're going to see it in our lifetimes.
For those of you not yet on the Trump Train, I know you don't want to vote for Hillary, but all the pundits have been trying to convince you that Trump's a complete fraud. (That was between their smug assurances that he wouldn't make it out of Iowa.)
It's odd. When Trump launched his campaign by talking about Mexican rapists and the wall, his critics hysterically denounced him, rushing to TV to say he did NOT represent the Republican Party! Only after it became resoundingly clear that large majorities of Americans agreed with Trump did his critics try a new tack: He doesn't believe it!
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Both indices Better.
london red 14:06:28 GMT - 05/06/2016
wick and two tails on last two hourly candles suggests a bit of indecision. topside stops done on initial flash high but lower not really done. below 114 would see them taken then maybe a squeeze towards 11460/65 over a few hours. in truth 2 or 3 reports identical to this and fed raises but first one and some sees weakening jobs growth while others grasp at rising wages, hence indecision.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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