jp - Cad "solidly" above declining 21 dma // 55 ema above 1.30 seems a good target
Maybe this week you see SPX 2040
Livingston nh 13:18:27 GMT - 05/04/2016
Thanx - lucky better than smart // STOX may finally see SPX 2040 again but oil not responding yet
Mtl JP 12:51:05 GMT - 05/04/2016
nh u becometh an economist / analyst at expense of trader ?
-
keep long usdcad while above 1.2750
GVI Forex john bland 12:45:15 GMT - 05/04/2016
nh-- great call on ADP. You caught it dead on!
Congratulations...
Livingston nh 12:00:34 GMT - 05/04/2016
Looking for a bit of turnaround in US concerns //
ADP - couple of reasons to expect slowing in this release so sub 160k should do the trick
ISM non-mfg -- should show an increase in this broader econ measure but employment may not be helpful and watch "prices paid" for signs that it is following the MFG survey higher
Trade continues to contract but the currency effect may be buried in the details of country specific changes -- CAD, MXN and AUD for me but choose your own point of interest
GVI Forex john bland 11:15:22 GMT - 05/04/2016
Today's release of the April ADP Private Jobs report sets the stage for the monthly Non-farm payroll release on Friday. While the ADP report tends not to be a reliable forecaster of NFP, it is closely followed nevertheless. Street estimates are for a gain of 198K in the month vs. +200K in March. That would imply a NFP gain of just above 200K in April.
However, Chair Yellen has redirected the focus of policy to inflation expectations from economic growth. So to a certain extent, she has diminished the importance of the jobs report for the current time.
As for trading, an outsized gain in the ADP report should weigh on EURUSD and an outsized gain should give it a boost. There is a slew of other important reports due today, including the ISM Service PMI and Productivity figures.
GVI Forex john bland 10:39:30 GMT - 05/04/2016
EURUSD
Pivot 1.1541
20-day 1.1345
As it is supposed to do, Fed Funds Futures and Spot EURUSD have converged. Keep in mind, this does not always happen immediately.
GVI Forex john bland 10:09:28 GMT - 05/04/2016
Equities -- Risk-Off
DAX -76
DJ -120
SP -16
US 1.795% -0.3
DE 0.205% +0.9
GB 1.501% -0.8
EUR crosses mostly higher, but lower vs USD and JPY
WTI $43.59 -0.06
Donald Trump all but secured the Republican nomination to run for President Tuesday
with a decisive win over Ted Cruz in the State of Indiana. In the Democrat race, Bernie
Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the primary, but it appears that Clinton still will be able
to limp first across the finish line to become the Democrat candidate. As the shape of the
Presidential race becomes clearer, markets will start to pay more attention.
The Eurozone final April PMI's were revised slightly lower from their flash estimates
from a week ago. These data remain lacklustre, but continue to grow. The U.K. April
Construction PMI was considerably weaker than expected and weighed on the GBP. The upcoming
Brexit vote could adversely impacting spending decisions in the U.K.
Markets have been trying to digest the one way movements up and the down in the EURUSD
this week in the absence of important economic developments. All I can say is that it
appears that some players, perhaps for reasons other than economic, continue to push the
currency in one direction, and then another. This could be for political or safety reasons.
It might also be an effort to run stops by algos.
John M.Bland MBA, CTA, co-founder global-View.com
Mtl JP 22:59:15 GMT - 05/03/2016
Jay 22:26 I Note that the yen move was not at 17:00-17:05 NYT.
can u i.d precisely "cross-over time" and explain the old tactic
?
I had a revealing experience with RNBZ rate release the other day which coincided with NY close and therefore the roll-over. For 5 minutes dealer was shut down even as I watched price prancing.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:26:50 GMT - 05/03/2016
Running stops during the crossover time used to be the norm and this was like one of those days.
Miami JN 21:58:44 GMT - 05/03/2016
wtf in usdjpy?? news, boj or algos running stops or front running an order at thinnest time of day?
GVI Forex john bland 21:36:41 GMT - 05/03/2016
See how the GVI Trading Room bias system works!
It is not unusual to take a couple of days for spot and Fed Funds Futures probabilities to converge. Its all about the sentiment bias.
Markets were blindsided early in U.S. trade Tuesday (turnaround Tuesday?) by a
relentless move higher in the USD following a weak performance earlier in the day. It was an
odd performance in that there was no clear impetus for the trade. All I can say is that it
appears that some players, perhaps for reasons other than economic, continue to push the
currency in one direction. This could be for political or safety reasons. It could also be
an effort to run stops by algos. I don't know, but note the currency recently has not been
reacting the way it "should" to economic data.
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised some with a 25bp cut in the Cash Rate target to
1.75% from 2.00%. Many had felt the odds for a cut had been 50-50. The decision initially
saw a major drop in the AUDUSD. The decision came on the heels of soft inflation figures for
1Q16. The RBA warned about the risks in the future of a rising currency.
Early Tuesday saw the April Chinese Caixin PMI, which remained in contraction at 49.4
vs. 49.7 in March. The rest of the week will see holidays in Japan due to "Golden Week"
observances, plus a few holiday closures elsewhere. Then Friday will feature the latest key
employment data (April) from the U.S. and Canada
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Are you
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.