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Mtl JP  13:00:23 GMT - 05/19/2016  
usdcad 1.3150
Sja 11:55 good for you.
1.33 likely next but no guarantee


Bali Sja  11:55:24 GMT - 05/19/2016  
very nice trade and call JP. I silently followed your usdcad trade,well done. Thank you.


Mtl JP  11:51:35 GMT - 05/19/2016  
 
update
JP 14:29 GMT May 6, 2016
usdcad 1.2936
above 1.29 -->> 1.30/1.3150


Mtl JP  21:04:39 GMT - 05/06/2016  
nh 15:16 re President Trump //
Is this a good idea:

Donald Trump Won’t Self-Fund General-Election Campaign - wsj ?



Mtl JP  18:21:13 GMT - 05/06/2016  
break n of 107 opens 107.25
dlrx to 94 and eurdlr to 1.1375isk pretty plz


Mtl JP  18:14:19 GMT - 05/06/2016  
 
tech term addition to the gv trade dictionary


Mtl JP  18:08:32 GMT - 05/06/2016  
someone plz step on and push the euro cockroach off the 1.14 cliff


Mtl JP  17:43:24 GMT - 05/06/2016  
altho a eurdlr sub 1.14 to 1.1380/70 would be nice
close there or lower would be more bearish


Mtl JP  17:29:21 GMT - 05/06/2016  
 
it appears I am not alone with interest in 2044
-
something I am not recommending to myself is to short paper Gold
and only a buyer be


Mtl JP  15:27:27 GMT - 05/06/2016  
President Trump - ya think Hillary is going to jail courtesy FBI ?


dc CB  15:26:32 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Auctions next week. 3,10,30s


Livingston nh  15:16:07 GMT - 05/06/2016  
jp- bond yields -- President Trump offered CNBC an insight into his deal making plan for Treasurys using Atlantic City casino funding techniques



Mtl JP  15:05:04 GMT - 05/06/2016  
nh yields on bonds vs yields off stocks ?
-
I am still fairly attached to correlation trades on FX (cad, yen, eur for ex) vs risk on/off


Livingston nh  14:57:23 GMT - 05/06/2016  
STOX - we took took out the DOHAlowa (OPEC scam) in SPX so now we look to open the gaps below ( 2 open gaps above over the past week) -- gaps are in 30 point increments (simple) 1995, 1965 and 1935

EUR - 1.1350 is 21 dma --- Greece, Turkey and Brexit on offer here so pick one or all for the "excuse"

GBP - cable sub 1.44 but EUR/GBP direction depends on EUR (see above)

Above all watch yields because it is the Gorilla that will bully the Fed -- US is working with the negative real rates lower than most others


Mtl JP  14:56:08 GMT - 05/06/2016  
usdyen 106.60 (Japan is back from their holiday, who would know eh ?)
numbnuts & Co. having trouble keeping the 5day106.71 let alone getting to just 10 day 108.40
go numbnuts go - wakie wakie if you don't want to see 100


Mtl JP  14:29:24 GMT - 05/06/2016  
usdcad 1.2936
above 1.29 -->> 1.30/1.3150
-
lets see ... eur tested 1.14 4times already
someone should be getting exhausted


GVI Forex john bland  14:06:39 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Crude at its HOD and supporting S&P.


GVI Forex john bland  13:36:53 GMT - 05/06/2016  
GS moves forecast for first (of 3?) Fed rate hikes to September from June.


GVI Forex john bland  13:19:52 GMT - 05/06/2016  
GVI Sentiment Chart (below) suggests this low value in EURUSD cannot be sustained.

10-yr yield??


GVI Forex john bland  13:17:34 GMT - 05/06/2016  
GVI Sentiment Indices

Odds:
June rate hike 6% vs. 12% pre-data
Dec (one hike) 59% vs 72%

10yr 1.753% +1.0



Mtl JP  13:13:44 GMT - 05/06/2016  
nh 13:21 GMT May 4 / usdcad above 1.29
is good. 50ma on radar.
above that ... another 100-150 posipips
caveat: I hate straight line thinking but love it when it pays in spades


london red  12:25:03 GMT - 05/06/2016  
euro daily straddle 75 initial sup/res so could be flash high/low off current.


GVI Forex john bland  12:21:44 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Pre -data
10-yr 1.744% +0.10

odds on June hike 12%


london red  12:20:18 GMT - 05/06/2016  
nfp miss/beat initial flash move will be faded if ahe beats/misses. remember its zerosum and u should always look for the twist. 175 nfp see 11450-80 maybe but if ahe 0.3 0.4 then they fade that. similarly 225-250 nfp counts for dick if ahe around zero. 11350 or whatever flash low will be faded. at this stage its inflation not jobs so u do want to see 150-200 nfp but with firmer ahe then fed can raise.


Livingston nh  12:19:26 GMT - 05/06/2016  
jp - conservative is good -- in the sausage factory of Seasonal Adjustment (runs w/ the crowd) turns are not picked up right away - so today's NFP is likely to be outlier either side (GDP factor) but for the Fed the unemployment RATE is now the only LABOR important rate determinant -- 4.8% unemployment squeezes the Fed


Mtl JP  12:14:07 GMT - 05/06/2016  
for dollar to get the bid suspect NFP needs to come in at 225/30 plus.
-
maybe the earlier krapp ADP was a just a setup to help make things easier for the usd


Belgrade Knez  12:12:36 GMT - 05/06/2016  

london red

what is your view for EURUSD at NFP release, please?

thank you.



london red  11:51:52 GMT - 05/06/2016  
s&p should see a big move by close today as has been swiveling around neck for a few days. Good for 20 pts off 2050 at least either way.


Mtl JP  11:44:52 GMT - 05/06/2016  
 
ahead of NFP futures taking the conservative approach


Cape May jb  10:11:51 GMT - 05/06/2016  
I would not be surprised to see EURUSD to creep up the 1.1450 area in advance of jobs.

btw, the talking heads all seem to be talking the data up today. They need stronger data to support stocks.


GVI Forex john bland  10:06:35 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Use pivot and 20-day averages (below) as bias indicators.


GVI Forex 10:05:06 GMT - 05/06/2016  
Small convergence in our sentiment chart early in N.Y. Return to rationality?

Pivot= 1.1427
20-day= 1.1350






GVI Forex 08:55:21 GMT - 05/06/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment


9-May MONDAY
12:30 CH- CPI
10-May TUESDAY
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
11-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Output
14:30 US- Crude
17:00 US- 10-yr Auction
12-May THURSDAY
11:00 GB- Bank of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13-May FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- GDP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- PPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan


Trading Themes --
  • The April non-farm Payrolls report today could set the tone for USD trade in the month ahead. Despite the soft ADP jobs data (+156K) on Wednesday, professional forecasters are clinging to forecasts for an increase of +200K in the month. The ADP data generally are not seen as reliable. The +/- 200K line is a psychological benchmark. Many have been planning based on a pick up in growth in 2Q16, and a sub-200K reading would be a disappointment.

  • Large fires in the Aberta oil sands region of Canada persist and have some worried about oil production in the near future. Even though this is a major global oil production area, no fundamental lasting impact is seen once they are extinguished. WTI is trading lower at this hour.

  • The April EUrozone PMI Retail PMI fell fUrther into contraction in the month. This is not a first-tier data release, but is another piece of the larger picture. The London election for Mayor is being held today. Local elections might provide some indirect insights into leanings about the Brexit vote on June 23.


John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
co-founder global-View.com




GVI Forex john bland  20:37:54 GMT - 05/05/2016  
December rate hike odds at their recent lows and EURUSD lower. These markets are out of phase. NFP could shake them back to reality, either way.



GVI Forex john bland  19:36:27 GMT - 05/05/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

6-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA/US- Employment

9-May MONDAY
12:30 CH- CPI
10-May TUESDAY
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
11-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Output
14:30 US- Crude
17:00 US- 10-yr Auction
12-May THURSDAY
11:00 GB- Bank of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13-May FRIDAY
09:00 EZ- GDP
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- PPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan






Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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