Minor convergence late Friday, but Fed sentiment and EURUSD remained out of phase. For those of us who follow the fundamentals, its been hard to explain the markets in the past two weeks. This is unlikely to last.
GVI Forex john bland 20:09:59 GMT - 05/08/2016
Livingston nh 21:05:45 GMT - 05/08/2016
IMF and EU are in the news again about Greece -- Spain is having another election (also see Aussie) -- and Brexit heats up
the unknown implication of the Saudi move is the effect that a Saudi final push to quash marginal producers may have on Iran -- the tail risk is a war -- the shia "protest" in Iraq last week might have been a test - Saudi Arabia has a large under represented Shi'ite population
Some folks might welcome a conflict, might even encourage it
nw kw 22:05:57 GMT - 05/08/2016
I did some home work usacad is reluctant to move top side from eur is terned stronger than usa in my formula, started in April//// is have a soft aud in a power move as well. gl. kw.
GVI Forex john bland 09:08:11 GMT - 05/09/2016
Trading Themes --
Trade in the USD continues to be subdued after the poor U.S. trade data last Friday, which
just about completely removed the market odds of Fed rate hike in June. Some feel that the
central bank is unlikely to change rates in the pre-election period, so the longer they wait,
the greater the odds are of no change until yearend.
The April non-farm Payrolls report on Friday fell short of market expectations withh jobs
increasing only by +160K in the month vs. expectations for a gain in excess of +200K. Average
hourly earnings (after revisions) also disappointed the those optimistic on the economy.
Large fires in the Aberta oil sands region of Canada persist and have some worried about
near term oil production. No fundamental lasting impact is seen once they are extinguished. WTI
is up modestly.
John M.Bland MBA, CTA, co-founder global-View.com
GVI Forex john bland 11:58:02 GMT - 05/09/2016
It appears the USD has shaken off the poor employment report from Friday
US 1.773% -0.6
DE 0.138% -0.9
GB 1.398% -0.9
JP -0.102% +0.8
EUR crosses mixed
WTI $44.89 +0.23
GVI Forex john bland 16:10:49 GMT - 05/09/2016
GVI Fed Sentiment indicator. Odds on a rate hike by yearend fall even further to 61% today, despite confused signals from the Fed. EURUSD SHOULD be higher, but its not!
nw kw 22:01:33 GMT - 05/09/2016
u/j pull to top side so might keep going up small stop. gl.
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