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dc CB  21:56:02 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Mtl JP 19:20 GMT
threat of Trump ... what threat exactly is that ?

The Donald in a "safe space"

not wearing his kevlar vest



nw kw  21:40:13 GMT - 05/17/2016  
mxn mining down for gdp must be like rand , cheap to help gold miners not in usa , oil not to bad priced not at 20.0


nw kw  21:20:42 GMT - 05/17/2016  
16:33 ET - The benchmark IPC stock index closed up 0.1% at 45,872 points, with heavyweights America Movil and Wal-Mart de Mexico posting gains. The peso was little changed, trading in Mexico City at 18.2865 to the US dollar vs 18.2780 late Monday, despite higher oil prices. The peso's recent underperformance vs other emerging currencies has some analysts wondering when the central bank might intervene--the last time the bank sold dollars was in February. "It is our take that if recent dynamics in the USD/MXN continue, the foreign exchange commission could intervene in the FX market soon," Banorte says. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 17, 2016 16:33 ET (20:33 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


Mtl JP  20:22:57 GMT - 05/17/2016  
nh 19:53 it is probably more profitable to play expectations than an eventual fact.
-
cretins on proximity radar:
Thursday: Fischer followed by Dudley
Yellen's yaks on 6 June will likely depend on how players piss (or not) on the lesser cretins' smoke puffings


nw kw  20:02:56 GMT - 05/17/2016  
im still on mxnjpy and cadmxn awaiting mxn reversal cant be that bad in mxn stats?


Livingston nh  19:53:13 GMT - 05/17/2016  
JP - I'll add USD/CAD on move above 1.30 (55 EMA) // AUD/USD still below 21 dma - commodity bounce out of gas??

IF interest rate regime has truly changed we should see the 2 yr yield start to move higher


Mtl JP  19:44:37 GMT - 05/17/2016  
1.1320-ish
Livingston nh talking of spreads:
I am restraining my robot to selling eurdlr pops, still BoD dlrcad


Livingston nh  19:36:23 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Doesn't look like big moves anywhere except STOX (~1%) -- and STOX look like just a BAD AIR day again (why the rally yesterday, why the drop today??) // 2/10 yield spread heading towards March low


Mtl JP  19:27:07 GMT - 05/17/2016  
so crude whose rising price is supposed to be good for stocks sees stox krapp back to 2044-ish.
maybe stox are ultra skittish about less accessible and more expensive nihilo money instead


Mtl JP  19:20:22 GMT - 05/17/2016  
threat of Trump ... what threat exactly is that ?
and what trade opportunity would be Hilary ?


dc CB  19:17:14 GMT - 05/17/2016  
A rate Hike or 2 will affirm that Obama has been successfull and will give HRC a talking point about why she is the one to continue his policies..

The markets will not be allowed to Crash.

The threat of Trump has become a Major Factor.
The FED is owned by the Banks, the Banks are owned by TPTB.
There is a full court press in the 2 major (respected) east coast newspapers to derail Trump.

on the other side: Depositions Start This Week In Hillary Email Lawsuit. The first interview will be conducted on Wednesday with Lewis Lukens, the former deputy assistant secretary of state and executive director of the Executive Secretariat.

Next week, on May 27, Judicial Watch’s lawyers will depose Clinton’s former chief of staff, Cheryl Mills. Bryan Pagliano, the information technology specialist who managed Clinton’s email system, will be deposed on June 6 and Huma Abedin, Clinton’s “body woman,” will be interviewed on June 28.




GVI Trading Room john  19:05:47 GMT - 05/17/2016  
After CPI and Fed talk today, we have the odds for a rate hike now above 100% from about 80% on the Monday close. USD positive?


GVI Trading Room john  18:13:21 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Impact of the fed hawks?

Markets starting to slide.
S&P down -18
EURUSD lower
USDJPY up a bit
10-yr yield up


dc CB  15:41:46 GMT - 05/17/2016  
crude making a run at 50?
June Last Trade friday.
July goes front tom---at 49


Livingston nh  14:50:48 GMT - 05/17/2016  
STOX internals have been flipping around all morning, now positive but chart still looks negative (opening gap today might be a target)

Treasurys not moving much


NY JM  14:42:35 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Anyone trading this chop?


GVI Trading Room john  13:57:02 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Post-data odds on Fed rate hike by yearend now 92% vs. 83% beforehand.


Cape May jb  13:48:33 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Any news in EURUSD ?


Livingston nh  13:04:25 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Treasury yield curve flattening a bit as 2yr pops higher -- see if this continues thru the day - FOMC minutes due tomorrow


Singapore SC  12:23:21 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Does anyone have a plan to trade US data?


GVI Trading Room john  11:34:16 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Not sure but I heard a little while ago that the Alberta wildfires are suddenly heading north causing new forced evacuations.


Dubai CD  11:30:40 GMT - 05/17/2016  
Is there news in usdcad?


GVI Trading Room john  11:21:36 GMT - 05/17/2016  

Equities now flat.DAX -16
DJ -9
SP -2

US 1.756% +0.5
DE 0.150% +0.8
GB 1.38% +0.4
JP -0.109% -0.4

EUR Crosses mixed
WTI $47.66 -0.04


Mtl JP  09:47:05 GMT - 05/17/2016  
about "WTI prices remain well bid due to concerns about production disruptions in Nigeria, Venezuela and Canada. The $50 line is in view. Higher oil prices can support equities."
-
possibly because if Libyian oil started to double capacity flow onto market ... who can afford lower oil eh ?

Libya to be military equipped in fight against ISIL The US and other world powers agree to help unity government in the fight against ISIL threat in Libya.



GVI Trading Room john  09:15:59 GMT - 05/17/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

17-May TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
12:30 US- CPI
13:15 US- Industrial Production
23:50 JP- GDP
18-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
09:00 EZ- HICP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
19-May THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Trading Themes --
  • WTI prices remain well bid due to concerns about production disruptions in Nigeria, Venezuela and Canada. The $50 line is in view. Higher oil prices can support equities.

  • Today features U.S. CPI data and Housing Starts and Permits. The Fed is especially focused on raising the level of inflation, so both items are key.

  • Markets are back in full swing today after the Monday holiday in Europe. Intervention threats made by Japan yesterday seem to have done the trick for the moment. Typically, the impact of intervention threats tends to wear off quickly. JPY selling can generate temporary offset EURUSD demand as crosses are unwound.

  • April U.K. inflation data were softer than expected across the board. BOE policy is geared at lifting prices, so the data are GBP negative. In his last press conference BOE Governor Carney had warned about softer inflation in the near term.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com




GVI Trading Room john  20:28:14 GMT - 05/16/2016  
Gradual Convergence with sentiment




GVI Trading Room john  20:22:18 GMT - 05/16/2016  

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

17-May TUESDAY
08:30 GB- CPI
12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
12:30 US- CPI
13:15 US- Industrial Production
23:50 JP- GDP
18-May WEDNESDAY
08:30 GB- Employment
09:00 EZ- HICP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
19-May THURSDAY
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
20-May FRIDAY
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Trading Themes --
  • The Whit Monday holiday on much of the Continent depressed trading activity on Monday. The economic calendar was light with the Empire PMI from the U.S. coming in much weaker than expected and the NAHB Homebuilder's index a touch softer than forecast.

  • Tuesday features CPI data from the U.K and U.S.and U.S. Housing Starts and Permits. Both the Bank of England and the Fed are especially focused on raising the level of inflation, so both reports are key.

  • A key focus remains the performance of U.S. shares, which gained on Monday. They were boosted rising oil prices once again. I am continuing to keep a close eye on the 2040 level in the S&P. Below 2040 in U.S. trading could start to trigger significant selling. The next critical level would be the 200-day average of 2012.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,
    co-founder global-View.com







Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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