So far FOMC Minutes banged up the EM o/n and pushed rates a bit higher here
STOX acted in response to being wrong and then bounced back, a typical FED move - OPtion EXpiry may push the STOX around a bit as folks assess whether this is just another head fake by Fed
Dudley and Fischer comments likely to solidify the "IT's Alive" noise about June meeting -- ironic that Woodford (Father of Forward Guidance, how's that workin' out) gets an award the day after the Fed desperately tries to move market expectations
We've been here before and I mentioned the discrepancy between Participant and Member opinion on RATE HIKE in the Minutes
so consider the list of Members and tell me who changes vote from April (same group as March)
Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Stanley Fischer, Loretta J. Mester, Jerome H. Powell, Eric Rosengren, and Daniel K. Tarullo.
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:14:39 GMT - 05/19/2016
Fed's Fischer not commenting on monetary policy (no surprise given the topic). Dudley more likely to comment.
GVI Trading Room john 13:12:11 GMT - 05/19/2016
Single Fed rate hike odds
June 15 ~25%
July 27 62%
July 27 odds are cleaner than June.
Markets still do not trust Fed signals. Lets see if these numbers change after Fischer/Dudley
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 13:01:01 GMT - 05/19/2016
I posted this on the GVI Trading Room and it worked out nice Contact me for free access
GVI Trading Room
GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler 12:15 GMT 05/19/2016 - My Profile
Dollar likely to find support ahead of Fedspeak so perhaps a fade the news trade if Philly Fed disappoints. Jobless claims spiked last week and forecast to drop.
GVI Trading Room john 12:55:07 GMT - 05/19/2016
13:15 GMT Speech - Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer
(Money), Interest and Prices: Patinkin and Woodford
At the Conference in Honor of Michael Woodford's Contributions to Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York
NY JM 12:41:18 GMT - 05/19/2016
Lacker (no voter and a hawk) spouting hawkish comments
Mtl JP 12:37:51 GMT - 05/19/2016
re cretin Fischer's speech:
I am amending my risk assessment from F to C from this dummy.
It appears he ll hold a Q&A
Mtl JP 12:27:50 GMT - 05/19/2016
I am guessing Philly Fed bigger A-risk to my account than A-rated jobless claims - at bottom of hour
US stocks heading into NY session
suggesting an under-water open
GVI Trading Room john 11:59:11 GMT - 05/19/2016
GVI Trading Room
Watch the pivot; 20-day out of range
Bias NEGATIVE below 1.1250 to below 1.1150.
Sentiment indicator suggesting at current Fed Funds policy forecast that EURUSD has additional downside potential. Odds for a rate hike on June 15 are still a surprisingly low 28% in favor.
Mtl JP 11:08:02 GMT - 05/19/2016
and so has Stanley's role - the dummy - been planned out
he is a natural
GVI Trading Room john 11:00:00 GMT - 05/19/2016
Im sure these speeches were scheduled many months ago.
Mtl JP 10:56:28 GMT - 05/19/2016
so they assign cretin Fischer to give an honor speech... lol
this guy is an embarrassment
give him F risk rating to my account
GVI Trading Room10:42:54 GMT - 05/19/2016
You never know either way, but odds are Fischer will remain on topic and say nothing. Dudley undoubtedly will have something to say. Yellen, Fischer and Dudley are the inner-circle at the top of the Central Bank.
13:15 GMT Fischer-- Speech in honor of Michael Woodford's contributions to economics
14:30 GMT Dudley-- Press briefing on macroeconomic trends
Markets are still digesting Fed Minutes from yesterday. They indicated that a rate hike is
likely on June 15 "if the data warrant". This was not a clear rate hike signal. We still will
need some details on the Fed's conditionality.
A key focus today will be speeches by Vice Chair Fischer (13:15 GMT) and N.Y Fed
President Dudley (14:30 GMT) for any additional details.
Fed Funds futures now place 30% odds on a rate hike on June 15 from 12% beforehand. So they
still feel a move in June is unlikely. I put the odds closer 50-50 because the Fed appears to
be determined to tighten as soon as it can.
The Fed Minutes have given the USD a strong bid vs. the EUR and JPY. The S&P dipped
initially on the Fed announcement but worked its way higher to about unchanged by the close.
We are trading early Thursday back atthe key 2040 level. The yield on the 10-yr note is just
shy of the 1.90% line, as bond dealers appear to be bracing themselves for a series of rate
John M.Bland MBA, CTA, co-founder global-View.com
nw kw 01:36:28 GMT - 05/19/2016
The number of people in full-time work fell 9,300 in April, while those in part-time work rose 20,200.
nw kw 01:34:16 GMT - 05/19/2016
so is gold a short?
nw kw 01:31:53 GMT - 05/19/2016
so plan a gl.
nw kw 01:23:07 GMT - 05/19/2016
take eur up to
nw kw 01:22:01 GMT - 05/19/2016
plan b can be good for fed so it moved to strength already so pop? crafty banks?
Gold may sink close to 1200, because of the interest rise mania.
nw kw 01:07:04 GMT - 05/19/2016
no nothing moves utill xauaud brakes out range this year and risk short aud/// for now
sit on audjpy atm
nw kw 01:04:27 GMT - 05/19/2016
tokyo joyya 01:04:10 GMT - 05/19/2016
nw kw 01:02:10 GMT - 05/19/2016
angry aud poss sell?
nw kw 01:01:27 GMT - 05/19/2016
eurgbp or plan b. I post charts revers ?
Mtl JP 01:00:46 GMT - 05/19/2016
little in terms of resistance up to 111.80-ish on chart
nw kw 01:00:13 GMT - 05/19/2016
eur pull long eurgbp
nw kw 00:58:16 GMT - 05/19/2016
stick Graney ?
nw kw 00:57:03 GMT - 05/19/2016
golds dropping aud might follow has this year but always risk for plan b. gl.
nw kw 00:54:52 GMT - 05/19/2016
trapped kill shot audjpy 4h chart
tokyo joyya 00:48:38 GMT - 05/19/2016
look like stop hunt....i have small short usdjpy....stay sideline till clear break then buy or sale....
nw kw 00:29:26 GMT - 05/19/2016
e wave stops pleas for there biggest players or sheep stuck in math to much?
nw kw 00:26:42 GMT - 05/19/2016
So Slap stick Graney decided to read and adjusts cots, some one trading usa big flood for restocking, usa gdp up from strong cad for it lost trade to usa, rigged?
in 30y b.
GVI Trading Room john 21:01:39 GMT - 05/18/2016
Trading Themes --
The Fed surprised the markets Wednesday with a more hawkish than expected set of Minutes
from their meeting three weeks ago. The central bank always reserves the right to "fine tune"
the monutes, and in this case said they indicated that a rate hike is likely on June 15 "if
the data warrant".
Fed Funds futures put 25% odds on a rate hike in June from 12% beforehand. I would put the
odds now at better than 50-50. The Fed appears to be determined to tighten, absent poor
The Fed Minutes gave the USD a strong bid vs. the EUR and JPY. The GBP performed well
following an IPSOS Brexit poll that put the vote at 55% to 37% in favor of remaining in the EU.
Traders we know take poll results with a grain of salt.
The S&P dipped initially on the Fed announcement but worked their way higher to about
unchanged by the close. WTI ended weaker. The yield on the 10-yr note ended up sharply at
1.877% +12bp on the day, as bond dealers appeared to brace themselves for a series of rate
Hillary Clinton took a step closer to winning her party's nomination to run for President
Tuesday with a win in Kentucky. As expected, She lost in Oregon. She is not a strong candidate
at this point in time.
John M.Bland MBA, CTA, co-founder global-View.com
GVI Trading Room john 20:10:39 GMT - 05/18/2016
~25% odds in favor of a June 15 +25bp rate hike. THis strikes me as a bit low. The "if warranted' strikes me as indicating a hike is likely unless the data between now and then take a sudden turn south. In other words, the default decision is a hike.
GVI Trading Room john 20:04:13 GMT - 05/18/2016
Big increase in sentiment in FAVOR (down blue line) of Fed rate hike(s) before yearend. 100% odds in favor of one +25bp hike and 39% odds of second +25bp increase. Chart also suggests EURUSD might have farther to fall. Keep in mind this chart is about sentiment.
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