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Mtl JP  15:55:24 GMT - 05/20/2016  
usdcad keep BoD bias
should be good for additional 200-400 pips
YORCA (your own risk considerations apply)

Mtl JP  15:14:16 GMT - 05/20/2016  
usd is up almost 2% against the yen this week - jealous ?
it is a nice move, especially if prorated for annual basis lol

Mtl JP  15:08:13 GMT - 05/20/2016  
first lets define "benefitting" then exactly what are you talking about: eurdlr is off 1.1290 near 1.12 and likely heading to 1.10-ish - just maybe not on 1-5 minute chart ?

PAR 14:58:44 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Dollar not really benefitting from strong US economic numbers and expectations of a couple of rate hikes .

Mtl JP  14:55:51 GMT - 05/20/2016  
closing in on 11am in NY eurdlr likely to be subject to willy-nilly priceaction between different size sharks feeding off each others's sls

Mtl JP  14:29:22 GMT - 05/20/2016  
gv chartpoints:
Pivot 1.1204
Sup 1 1.1178

Mtl JP  14:19:32 GMT - 05/20/2016  
SnP back to +ive YTD
currently ignoring cretins' "live meeting" yak

Mtl JP  14:18:37 GMT - 05/20/2016  
SnP back to +ive on the year
currently ignoring cretins' "live meeting" yak

GVI Trading Room Jay Meisler  13:40:49 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Just look at the EUR crosses to find the source of EURUSD demand. I offered my free videos on this topic and no clue why some have not contacted me to see how to trade these type of markets. EMAIL

Livingston nh  13:26:54 GMT - 05/20/2016  
OPEX in stox - yesterday's opening SPX gap up to 2048

Treasury moves should call the tune for currency and stox

GVI Trading Room john  13:17:21 GMT - 05/20/2016  
They just ran stops @1.1230

from GVI trading Room. Check it out [email protected]

GVI Trading Room john 12:21 GMT 05/20/2016
Looking at the hourly chart in EURUSD, what jumped out at me was Jay's levels. 1.1230 is is serious resistance (= decent stops?), then previous support at 1.1255 (Resistance).

A test of 1.1230 looks likely,
then 1.1250 (55) could prove very hard to push through absent news.

I cited the 1.1204 pivot as key to the tone today. you can use 1.1200 as key. I am taking my lead from stocks. Weak stocks = higher EURUSD and vice-versa.

Mtl JP  13:06:21 GMT - 05/20/2016  
14:00 A US Existing Homes
risk rating "A" to my account likely mis-rated on the too high side as it is unlikely to reaction-move prices 50+ pips

Mtl JP  12:56:26 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Gold could be a snipers delight. It is Friday and cretins' yak, for the short-term, has mostly been priced in so why not try to tease out some profits eh ?

Mtl JP  12:47:32 GMT - 05/20/2016  
cretin Tartullo yaking at top of hour
expecting risk Z to my account from him

Mtl JP  12:44:38 GMT - 05/20/2016  
not touching pound, too politicized and subject to polls about which I have absolutely no clue
kind of puppy that probably demands 200+pip sl slack if any

Mtl JP  12:32:47 GMT - 05/20/2016  
usdcad 1.31
- still BoD bias

tokyo joyya  12:29:06 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Mtl JP 12:21 GMT 05/20/2016

yes when such strong support taken 2000/2030 then it may go far away..

Mtl JP  12:21:14 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Joy I suspect the snp downside is protected by some pretty powerful interests altho I can not prove it.
So far I am playing the 2044 line , next one such level might be the 200ma, if seen, seeing its technical and market psychology relevance.
In the meantime juice it fwiw and as long as it works.

tokyo joyya  12:14:22 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Mtl JP 12:06 GMT 05/20/2016

so do you think its heading 1800 and below?TIA

Mtl JP  12:06:30 GMT - 05/20/2016  
SnP ahead of NY session

GVI Trading Room john  10:54:47 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Equities Risk-On
DAX +86
DJ +46
SP +5

US 1.859% -0.7bp
DE 0.180% +1.5
GB 1.448% +2.8
JP -0.096% -0.1

EUR Crosses higher; down vs. AUD
WTI $48.72 +0.05

GVI Trading Room john  10:04:22 GMT - 05/20/2016  
20day 1.1369 -- out of range.

It will take a good while for it to fall to current spot levels.

Pivot 1.1204 - current spot above the pivot.

You can use the 1.1200 as your bias indicator today. It seems that the USD moves quickly to higher levels (lower EURUSD) and then struggles to move higher from there. Does it require a new stimulus from here?

Fed Funds Sentiment indicator remains USD positive. It seems to be saying that 1.1150 would be equilibrium.

GVI Trading Room john  08:46:21 GMT - 05/20/2016  


12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Trading Themes --
  • Heading into the weekend, the USD is holding onto a positive tone. some are saying that Fed determination to hike rates early as possible is a positive vote on the economy, although Some have their doubts about growth. Rising U.S. interest rates presumably will be an attraction for funds from overseas looking for better yields.

  • The economic calendar today is relatively light with Canadian data and U.S. Existing Homes Sales awaited. The housing industry is a important source of employment. Recently traders also have been keeping a close eye on equities.

  • N.Y. Fed President Dudley Thursday did a lot to clear the air about current monetary policy. As one of the top three leaders, we assume that he was not speaking for himself alone. Dudley said June 15 is "definitely a live meeting". His comments were clear. A rate hike is on the table if upcoming data are not overly weak. Their intention is to raise rates either in June or July, but are keeping all options open until then.

John M.Bland MBA, CTA,

London LB  07:52:28 GMT - 05/20/2016  
From a bank report

Expecting choppy price action into the weekend as the market digests the Fed minutes

UK JY  07:25:45 GMT - 05/20/2016  
Quiet here quiet market

Have you guys given up for tje week?

Chicago Bull  23:07:26 GMT - 05/19/2016  
Any ideas for Friday?

dc CB  20:19:52 GMT - 05/19/2016  
how many Retail Jobs is that?

dc CB  20:19:13 GMT - 05/19/2016  
But the Gov said Retail.......

Gap Inc Q1 revenue $3.44Bn, Exp. $3.51Bn; Closing 75 stores

GVI Trading Room john  20:05:23 GMT - 05/19/2016  


12:30 CA- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Trading Themes --
  • Comments by N.Y. Fed President Dudley Thursday did a lot to clear the air about current monetary policy at the Fed. As one of the top three at the central bank, we have to assume that he is not just speaking for himself. First of all Dudley reiterated that June 15 is "definitely a live meeting".

  • He indicated, as others have, that thet markets have recently been underestimating the probability of a policy tightening. Dudley said that he is quite pleased wtih the current market June and July policy views. Odds on a June 15 hike are about 25%, and absent a June tightening, odds are about 60% for a July 27 rate move.

  • Dudley's comments are clear. A rate hike is on the table if upcoming data are not overly weak. Their intention is to raise rates either in June or July, but have kept all options open by saying "if conditions warrant".

  • This gives the Fed cover to do nothing if economic data weaken substantially between nor and then, if financial markets suddenly deteriorate, or if the Brexit issue beomes a source of instabiity. They keep saying this decision is data-dependent and it clearly is. Nevertheless, the "defauit setting" is to tighten.

  • The apparent Fed movement on policy has given the USD a strong bid vs. the EUR and JPY. The GBP has been helped by better than expected data this week. The S&P has been trading heavy due to uncertainty about how many rate hikes are in the pipeline. The yield on the 10-yr note has risen this week on the same uncertainties. Traders will now been on data watch for the next several weeks and likely beyond.

  • John M.Bland MBA, CTA,

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