I am expecting a quiet Monday with NY and London closed.
tokyo joyya 20:44:47 GMT - 05/29/2016
GVI Trading Room john 20:42 GMT 05/29/2016
Thank you very much.....looks to me lower gbp from this week....
GVI Trading Room john 20:42:41 GMT - 05/29/2016
only 65% of voters are projected to vote. A low turnout is thought to favor "leave".
tokyo joyya 20:37:43 GMT - 05/29/2016
i do not understand sorry....65% want leave right?lower gbp?
Mtl JP 20:35:16 GMT - 05/29/2016
and the so-what trade is _____
thanks for , lol
GVI Trading Room john 20:28:49 GMT - 05/29/2016
Ladbrokes: Odds of UK voting to stay in EU in Brexit polls are 5-4; Turnout estimated at 65% - financial press **NOTE May 25th: (UK) Ladbrokes: Have seen a rise in proportion of bets on 'leave' over the past two days - Source TradeTheNews.com
Livingston nh 22:25:41 GMT - 05/28/2016
JP - Productivity whining is a pet peeve of mine - it, like many of our economy measures, has failed to keep up with the changed nature of the US and most "developed" economies
We have been in a Post-industrial service based economy for many years and the consequences of this affect our standard of living as well as our cost of living (the only critical measure of inflation)
We now have a service based economy with most of the non-productive immeasurable portion of that economy based on government regulation (i.e., a tax) - consider how many people owe their employment to regulation - accountants, lawyers, "Human Resource" professionals (ha!), education professionals (latest example Bathroom monitor/ construction) and the inefficiencies in this wasteland have major ripple effects thru time
We dwell on the soft science crap ( sociology, political science, economics et al) but try to get a plumber or electrician this weekend
I never had less than 40 kids in my class until my junior year in college (BABY BOOM) but now the overburdened teachers want 18 in elementary class "to keep up" w/ the neighbors (no more time to teach script -just use your printer)
How productive is the TSA version of Homeland Security in the airport business? If you have to travel from NYC to Chicago for a meeting your productivity would increase by walking
Mtl JP 19:21:06 GMT - 05/27/2016
according to Yellen weak productivity growth is “miserable” and “a serious and negative development”
dc CB 18:52:47 GMT - 05/27/2016
FTN: "Yellen Surprised Us By Hinting at Hike in Next Few Months"
Lavorgna: "Yellen's speech did not provide new insights"
Chumps lining up, taking sides, making perdictions.
london red 18:50:51 GMT - 05/27/2016
given their nature june will pass without a hike given brexit and also likely a lousy june nfp (a one off likely to be reversed in july). while ahe should hold up in june, the brexit risk should be enough of an excuse for them. july we should see the verizon reverse plus some of the stronger q2 numbers coming thru. brexit is the risk to july but u assume if no brexit then they hike july as mkt are likely to rally strongly on a uk remain vote, another excuse disappears for them.
Livingston nh 18:45:19 GMT - 05/27/2016
"In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation." FOMC OCT Statement - NEXT was the default and very clear
From Harris at BoA/ML -
"It is now clear that June is very much on the table. What is less clear is whether the Fed is just protesting the super-low probability priced into the markets or is setting us up for a June hike. In other words, should we stick to our September call or flip flop?" -- she's only gaming the probability not the event
now she has a week to see how things play out
GVI Trading Room john 18:30:53 GMT - 05/27/2016
odds on one rate hike by the end of July now ~75% vs. ~62% earlier.
Mtl JP 18:29:59 GMT - 05/27/2016
john your grasp of English language - and particularly as used by Yellen - is highly likely much better than mine
GVI Trading Room john 18:24:04 GMT - 05/27/2016
JP-- I respectively disagree. I think the "s" gives the FOMC a choice between June and July. Remember they still have to get beyond jobs numbers and the ECB next week.
Mtl JP 18:19:33 GMT - 05/27/2016
unless she ll borrow numbnuts Kuroda's sense of humor and taste for "surprise!"
Mtl JP 18:17:25 GMT - 05/27/2016
the "s" in months makes it plural
so hike next month is out
PAR18:10:05 GMT - 05/27/2016
" Coming Months " . Can any body give a definition of coming months . Reminds me of Bills definition of "Sex" .
Mtl JP 18:09:36 GMT - 05/27/2016
lets see if "euro stride" risk "B" can turn to risk "A" and hoppidy hop to 1.1050-ish
dc CB 18:06:10 GMT - 05/27/2016
Yellen manages to stuff all her "friends" - the CBs, bankers, funds, etc... who bought all those Treasuries this week....couldn't get enough of those.....
london red 18:05:55 GMT - 05/27/2016
apart from a quick snatch n grab which everyone should always be game for, you arent going to see many keen on selling the weeks low prior with a view to holding. if goes below 200dma you might see some forced selling as folk panic they missed the move, otherwise the bids should hold it up. Most will be looking to fade any backfill early nxt wk but the nfp at end of nxt wk might hamper euro shorts as it may contain some one off job losses to the tune of 20-30k from verizon. i read that there has been a lot of evidence of temp hiring which should keep the main number in check even if the underlyings get tossed about. either way we should continue to use bounces in euro as an op to fade while us rates continue on current path.
downside euro numbers. little fib at 11115 200dma 111 50% fibs at 11089 and 61.
GVI Trading Room john 17:56:20 GMT - 05/27/2016
EURUSD takes the news in stride
Mtl JP 17:56:12 GMT - 05/27/2016
so she admitted she was blind in 2007/10
today she s admitting that she has cataract in her eyes
GVI Trading Room john 17:55:33 GMT - 05/27/2016
Yellen signals a rate hike in coming months absent a catastrophe.
I think coming months means June or July. This gives her a Brexit escape for June.
GVI Trading Room john 17:47:51 GMT - 05/27/2016
This is about as clear a signal for a rate hike that you will ever get from the Fed. She has to give herself an escape hatch and did.
GVI Trading Room john 17:46:58 GMT - 05/27/2016
_ probably in coming months a rate hike would be appropriate
Mtl JP 17:07:20 GMT - 05/27/2016
a rig can run 10,000,000 bux, less a used one
GVI Trading Room john 17:04:37 GMT - 05/27/2016
Rig counts now running about dead flat. Not increasing yet...
Knez i run an arm of the family biz so that takes precedence but i use mobile apparatus to stay on the ball and maintain a feel as well as setting some auto stop/profit trades. ill set some alerts and they basically run themselves. its v imp to maintain the feel of the mkt as it takes a couple of wks to get it back if interrupted. but i leave the trickies and bigger events for the desk.
Mtl JP 16:23:53 GMT - 05/26/2016
voter Powell is allegedly a hawk
amuzing sh!tshow ... wonder who wrote the chant script for them from which they all parrot essentially the same thing, meekly and obediently.
GVI Trading Room john 16:19:22 GMT - 05/26/2016
-- Rate rise might be appropriate soon
-- Pace of increases should be gradual.
-- Econoy should remain on 2% growth path
Belgrade Knez 15:37:51 GMT - 05/26/2016
I thought you are full time trader.?
london red 15:30:25 GMT - 05/26/2016
thks knez, try post to whenever have something i think useful to share, but lately quite busy with home and work life. will def be around for the big calendar dates this summer, rates jobs and of course brexit. whichever way brexit goes its an opportunity to take a lot of money from the brokers and some banks that will be unfortunate to be on the other side of my trades.
Belgrade Knez 15:05:24 GMT - 05/26/2016
london red 13:04 GMT 05/26/2016
euro. short here stop 46 tgt 11140/45 and lower. look for hourly close at or lower than 11196 to conform end of short squeeze.
if fails short at 11275/80 stop abv 11330
your view are always very valuable ... thank you for your input .... I wish you can post more often
GVI Trading Room john 14:52:38 GMT - 05/26/2016
Everything pointing to a June/July Fed rate hike.
GVI Trading Room john 14:50:56 GMT - 05/26/2016
Atlanta Fed 2Q16 GDP raised to 2.90% from +2.50% on May 17.
chf coming off due to repricing of us rates and easing of brexit risk. both are subjective of course. tomorrow mkt will expect yellen to make ref to recent fed policy, that should cap euro advances. on the day will drive direction for close. she may be hesitant to be too hawkish given recent dollar advance and brexit risk. its actually not clear she will say anything at all (maybe june 6). if they want to do a summer hike they may prefer july. but mkt will still go into her speech tomorrow net long dollar. mkt tends to go in over egged with high(hawkish) expectations and then gets forced back by her dovishness.
Livingston nh 13:20:23 GMT - 05/26/2016
RED - are you seeing Brexit hedging in CHF?
london red 13:04:37 GMT - 05/26/2016
typo end of comment abv 50 not 30
london red 13:04:04 GMT - 05/26/2016
euro. short here stop 46 tgt 11140/45 and lower. look for hourly close at or lower than 11196 to conform end of short squeeze.
if fails short at 11275/80 stop abv 11330
GVI Trading Room john 12:43:01 GMT - 05/26/2016
Knez thank you you are correct. My internet went down about 2mins before the release!
ya, some . initial target 2044 (my fave pet) not the whole run up just spurts here n there.
so which way the 70 points - I am still keeping robot in the "short only" mode as I favor 1.1050 / 1.08-ish
the inverse correlation is not a tick for pip exactitude btw.
dc CB 19:57:27 GMT - 05/25/2016
did you hold on to some of that 2026---you said you went long on Dudley's speech on Thurs. (see linked chart) in my post
Mtl JP 19:51:54 GMT - 05/25/2016
posi or nega 70pts in 5 days ?
dc CB 19:48:36 GMT - 05/25/2016
70pts in 5 days looks pretty alive to me.
He's the "new bond king", didn't you know? Just like the old bong king ---what's his name, got's to impress the press.
john is Gundlach trumping Gartman on the yakking pundit circuit now ?
Gundlach is on record:
- 2-3 years before it happened he was screaming about credit market meltdown coming
- to like and own Gold
- central bank nega rates as "the dumbest idea ever"
- stocks are some of the "riskiest things"
- predicts Trump to take the W/H
from a small sampling of his plums
GVI Trading Room john 19:15:28 GMT - 05/25/2016
-- U.S. stock market is "Dead Money".
nw kw 14:40:05 GMT - 05/25/2016
cad market looking for rebuilding army, swing growth.
-- CAD close to level assumed in April
-- Inflation in line with expectations
-- US to return to solid growth after soft 1Q16
-- Economy to rebound in 3Q16
-- Alberta fires could trim 1-1/4% off 2Q growth
Jay - polls are yes or no which is fine to judge a Brexit vote -- but is the Pound at risk, will the economy plunge into recession, will locusts descend ?? this is UNKNOWABLE
GTA13:09:08 GMT - 05/25/2016
You should read the articles we post on our poll. The Leave side is beyond passionate to exit and will see whether the phone polls or online polls rule the day.
GVI Trading Room john 13:08:42 GMT - 05/25/2016
nh- good observation. This is the same struggle as in the States. The establishment against those fed up with the status quo. Its going on everywhere and its roots are economic.
PAR13:07:04 GMT - 05/25/2016
Not the markets but the British citizen themselves have become so afraid with all the horror stories of what a Brexit would do to their WALLET that they want to vote asap to stay in Europe .
GVI Trading Room john 13:03:43 GMT - 05/25/2016
-- June hike not set in stone
-- Labor data favorable towards rate hike
Livingston nh 12:57:22 GMT - 05/25/2016
I am having a hard time w/ Brexit Trading moves - it seems appropriate to bet w/the oddsmakers on Brexit or not -- simple YES or NO outcome // BUT the market moves are baffling -- the economic and financial implications are completely UNKNOWABLE but it appears that markets are relying on the EXPERTS (IMF, Treasury and Masters of Industry) that Brexit will be bad and EU Remain will be "no worse" status quo -- Groupthink is always dangerous
Mtl JP 12:36:22 GMT - 05/25/2016
gv chartpoint: 200 day 1.4780 possible target but also likely resistance
GVI Trading Room12:32:11 GMT - 05/25/2016
08:31 (EU) Latest Brexit poll: 44% for staying in EU; 38% for leaving; % undecided - Survation phone poll
**Note: Prior Survation (released on Apr 27th) 45% for staying in EU; 38% for leaving; 17% undecided
- Source TradeTheNews.com
I am taking this Bullard statement as a reinforcing comment for an early Fed tightening. I agree you have to be careful trying to read anything into Fed comments, but for the moment I think they might be singing from the same sheet.
GVI Trading Room john 10:17:45 GMT - 05/23/2016
-- Sees more factors in favor of slow interest hikes than none at all
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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