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GVI Trading Room john  08:37:47 GMT - 05/27/2016  

12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
17:15 US- Yellen Speech

00:00 GB/US- Holiday
07:55 DE- Employment
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
13:45 US- Chicago PMI
14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
00:30 AU- GDP
all day Global PMIs
18:00 US- Beige Book
11:45 EZ- ECB
12:15 US- ADP
12:30 US Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Crude
all Day Global PMIs
12:30 US- Employment
12:30US/CA- Trade

Trading Themes --
  • Ihe scheduled "discussion" with Fed Chair Yellen at Harvard will be at 17:15 GMT today. The hope had been is that she would clarify the outlook for Fed policy heading into the June and July FOMC meetings, but I doubt this is the kind of venue where she is likely even to discuss policy, but she might. U.S. Fixed Income markets close early ahead of the long weekend, so this might not be an opportune time for a major statement.

  • Yesterday saw another jump in a key U.S. housing statistic. Pending Homes Sales increased by over 5% after we saw a similar jump in New Homes sales earlier in the week. Pending Homes sales tend to be a reliable predictor of Existing Homes Sales. This suggests the economy might be improving.

  • The EURUSD has tested the psychological 1.1200 line again today. EURUSD is firm on what appears to be short-covering into long weekends in the U.K. and U.S. The EUR is mixed on its key crosses.

  • Both Japanese National and Core CPI remain in contraction (-0.30% y/y) as of April. The latest data keep the pressure on the BOJ to take actions to lift the economy out of its persistent deflation.

John M.Bland MBA

nw kw  08:56:28 GMT - 05/27/2016  
ranges for fed wonder/ with soft nzd need gold some point

GVI Trading Room john  10:00:47 GMT - 05/27/2016  
DAX +9
DJ +20
SP +2

US 1.826% -0.3
DE 0.128% -1.5
GB 1.389% -0.6
JP -0.112% -0.3

EUR mostly down on its crosses (up vs. CAD)
wti $49.05 -0.43

GVI Trading Room john  10:29:24 GMT - 05/27/2016  
20-day 1.1314
pivot 1.1186

Spot below these bias metrics. The 20-day average remains relatively high, but has been falling by about 20 pips a business day.

Add to these cold statistics the psychological 1.1200 line as another obvious sentiment indicator.

EURUSD priced nearly neutral vs. our Fed Funds indicator.

Livingston nh  11:53:38 GMT - 05/27/2016  
Given Yellen's propensity for "concern" and the market's failure to move the needle back to 50/50 (been stuck here since initial post Minutes reaction) let's see whether she plays the economics card or financial card for her concern

Powell speech was still yakking about Yellen's labor market "healing" towards full employment (5% is HEALED, pal) and the GDP potential shortfall (they can't even get current projection right and he thinks economists can measure "potential")

A test of Yellen's belief in the financial myth that the Fed can't move against the market expectations versus the risk that the real economy needs rate normalization regardless of GLOBAL disruption

Any of her comments, if any, today are likely to be trial balloons for D-Day -- she never sees the silver lining just the Lightning

Mtl JP  12:14:28 GMT - 05/27/2016  
usdyen 109.66
50 day 109.90
Res 1 110.18
Pivot 1 109.80
Sup 1 109.37

I am biased.
favor long

Livingston nh  12:25:10 GMT - 05/27/2016  
JP - ABE was setting the stage for a political announcement re: sales tax - YEN is still leaving Japan in search of yield - quacking of lame DUCKS Lew and Pres. Obama will be ignored

He might welcome a US rate hike

Mtl JP  12:27:51 GMT - 05/27/2016  
prepared to fade potential eurdlr pops against 1.1225-ish

Mtl JP  12:31:48 GMT - 05/27/2016  
GDP "A" risk a dud.
just as well

london red  12:33:31 GMT - 05/27/2016  
daily straddles for euro and yen about 30-35 pips. they arent expecting much today.

Mtl JP  12:41:18 GMT - 05/27/2016  
nh I am keeping my robot constrained to

look for and trade the euro from the short side only.

Mtl JP  12:48:32 GMT - 05/27/2016  
go w/60 break down

Livingston nh  12:58:39 GMT - 05/27/2016  
EUR is back below the 144 ema on daily and poised on the wkly 21sma

Mtl JP  13:10:55 GMT - 05/27/2016  
interesting risks to my account:
27/05/16 14:00 A US final U of MIch 95.6 95.8
27/05/16 17:00 A US Early Close
27/05/16 17:15 B USFRB Yellen Speech
according to gv calendar
I do not agree with "A" risk from UofM;
would be be very very surprised if it should try to reach for than 50 pips from my account.

Livingston nh  13:29:16 GMT - 05/27/2016  
It appears that Yellen has the markets held hostage until this afternoon - Treasurys so flat it might as well be closed -- see if stox spark anything before lunch

Mtl JP  13:41:58 GMT - 05/27/2016  
nh perhaps presumptuously assuming if u have nothing better to do...

london red  13:47:23 GMT - 05/27/2016  
as inferred yest think better to travel than arrive with tellen and more so today as i dont think she will mention rates. better to cover ahead of 30/40 sup and fade the rally that will come on disappointment.

Mtl JP  14:04:02 GMT - 05/27/2016  
john 10:01 GMT May 26, 2016
JY- you make an excellent point. It seems to me that many of the news algos are primitive. They don't think. They just react to keywords. Also I have noticed they don't have a memory. With the advent of AI, this will not always be so. We are in what likely will only be a short period of time when we can profit on the naivety of the robots.

Lets work together on this. Its us against the machines.

john any progress with the keywords work at the primitive algos that could be used today for "profit on the naivety of the robots" ?

Livingston nh  14:12:03 GMT - 05/27/2016  
JP - thanx, the fun apparently starts at the bottom of this hour -- may have the webcast

Mtl JP  14:13:59 GMT - 05/27/2016  
red 13:47 I agree so I now terminate my earlier short
good 2 c u back on the forum

Mtl JP  14:17:08 GMT - 05/27/2016  
stox do not appear to fear janet

NY JM  14:22:28 GMT - 05/27/2016  
Odds are Yellen says nothing. Her June 6 speech is more important.

Mtl JP  14:23:34 GMT - 05/27/2016  
if she says nothing , how are the algos programmed to trade "white noise" ?

london red  14:24:11 GMT - 05/27/2016  
thks, i try to be here when it matters and when work and family commitments allow.
stox are a rigged game, but whatever your opinion on it, no reason not to profit and btd.

london red  14:27:59 GMT - 05/27/2016  
if says nothing then squeeze maybe to 11180 maybe 112. nxt wk is nfp wk and they like to go in long usd but tend to first squeeze stops but not sure can close abv 11245 or even an hourly close abv it not likely. in any case u fade any rally prior and take profit shortly before release. no need to take any risks.

GVI Trading Room john  15:24:42 GMT - 05/27/2016  
trading Room... Market behaving as I expected Pre-Yellen

"GVI Trading Room john 11:04 GMT 05/27/2016
Yellen's comments are coming pretty late on pre-holiday Friday.

I think you have to focus on what the markets will be doing in anticipation of Yellen. I think it would be safe to assume the markets will be anticipating a hawkish Yellen..."

Mtl JP  15:32:47 GMT - 05/27/2016  
stox - markets? - making new HoD on expectation of hawkish yellen

dc CB  15:35:17 GMT - 05/27/2016  
today's Volume will no doubt be even lower.

a package or two of red swizzles will push it up another 100 Dow pts.

See you on the heli to the Hamptons

SPY Thurs ---No Volume

tokyo joyya  15:45:35 GMT - 05/27/2016  
USD Fed's Yellen to Speak at Harvard's Radcliffe Day is not that over yet?

Mtl JP  15:48:07 GMT - 05/27/2016  
joy sister... how can it be over when eurdlr has not hit 1.1170+ ?

london red  15:53:41 GMT - 05/27/2016  
17:15 may say a word but unlikely to touch rates even if asked. if does speak its because she wants to correct mt/wants mkt to hear (as has philly speech on june 6th) and so would be a lrg reaction.

GVI Trading Room john  16:54:48 GMT - 05/27/2016  
May 27
Discussion - Chair Janet Yellen
A conversation with Professor Gregory Mankiw, followed by the presentation of the Radcliffe Medal to Chair Yellen
1:15 p.m. EDT

london red  17:05:59 GMT - 05/27/2016  
euro straddle about 16/18 pips puts res at prev low 58/59 as poss flash high if nothing. sup at 11089/61 if makes a noise.

tokyo joyya  17:17:24 GMT - 05/27/2016  
what Yellen gona speak?dow breaking down..

GVI Trading Room john  17:20:40 GMT - 05/27/2016  
Yellen speaking now about her career etc. Nothing about policy yet.

Livingston nh  17:28:28 GMT - 05/27/2016  
JP - Yellen just said again "she didn't see that coming"

GVI Trading Room john  17:31:38 GMT - 05/27/2016  
yellen is live on Bloomberg TV

dc CB  17:32:23 GMT - 05/27/2016  

Mtl JP  17:32:41 GMT - 05/27/2016  
wow - really ?
I admit I am
- surprised
- impressed

dc CB  17:35:06 GMT - 05/27/2016  
Yellen calls Fed's handling of financial crisis 'nothing short of magnificent'

Livingston nh  17:36:43 GMT - 05/27/2016  
She just jumped on the USD "strength" as the reason for inflation slowdown -- monetary policy question - few sentences -- if labor market continues to improve , assess risks to the outlook and incoming dat dependent and in coming months may be appropriate eto hike

Mtl JP  17:37:20 GMT - 05/27/2016  
stox crapping and eurusd crapping at same time is un-usual

dc CB  17:38:45 GMT - 05/27/2016  
Yellen: we have somehow managed to steal $2trillion from middle class savers, giving it to a select group of insiders over the course of 7 years AND nobody is even talking about it.


Mtl JP  17:40:48 GMT - 05/27/2016  
at least stox betray their sensitivity and addiction to free and available nihilo

Mtl JP  17:45:28 GMT - 05/27/2016  
"in the coming months" , lol, this woman is a winner
she ll do justice to Ben "not in my lifetime" Bernanke

Mtl JP  18:23:33 GMT - 05/27/2016  
some gv chartpoints:
200 day 1.1099
Sup 3 1.1088 (off the Pivot)
S2 (2SD) 1.1080 off the 20ma

Mtl JP  18:47:03 GMT - 05/27/2016  
usdyen 110.45
110.50 current resistance
go w/break out N trgt 100pips
50 day 109.90 support

tokyo joyya  16:02:35 GMT - 05/28/2016  
Mtl JP 18:47 GMT 05/27/2016

yes 111.5/8 right?i am waiting for that now for add...

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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